Trends in the risk of mortality due to cardiovascular diseases in five Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996

OBJECTIVE - To analyze the trends in risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases in the northern, northeastern, southern, southeastern, and central western Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996. METHODS - Data on mortality due to cardiovascular, cardiac ischemic, and cerebrovascular diseases in 5 Brazilian geographic regions were obtained from the Ministry of Health. Population estimates for the time period from 1978 to 1996 in the 5 Brazilian geographic regions were calculated by interpolation with the Lagrange method, based on the census data from 1970, 1980, 1991, and the population count of 1996, for each age bracket and sex. Trends were analyzed with the multiple linear regression model. RESULTS - Cardiovascular diseases showed a declining trend in the southern, southeastern, and northern Brazilian geographic regions in all age brackets and for both sexes. In the northeastern and central western regions, an increasing trend in the risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases occurred, except for the age bracket from 30 to 39 years, which showed a slight reduction. This resulted from the trends of cardiac ischemic and cerebrovascular diseases. The analysis of the trend in the northeastern and northern regions was impaired by the great proportion of poorly defined causes of death. CONCLUSION - The risk of death due to cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and cardiac ischemic diseases decreased in the southern and southeastern regions, which are the most developed regions in the country, and increased in the least developed regions, mainly in the central western region.

Survival and Predictive Factors of Lethality in Hemodyalisis: D/I Polymorphism of The Angiotensin I-Converting Enzyme and of the Angiotensinogen M235T Genes

Background: End-stage kidney disease patients continue to have markedly increased cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality. Analysis of genetic factors connected with the renin-angiotensin system that influences the survival of the patients with end-stage kidney disease supports the ongoing search for improved outcomes. Objective: To assess survival and its association with the polymorphism of renin-angiotensin system genes: angiotensin I-converting enzyme insertion/deletion and angiotensinogen M235T in patients undergoing hemodialysis. Methods: Our study was designed to examine the role of renin-angiotensin system genes. It was an observational study. We analyzed 473 chronic hemodialysis patients in four dialysis units in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Survival rates were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method and the differences between the curves were evaluated by Tarone-Ware, Peto-Prentice, and log rank tests. We also used logistic regression analysis and the multinomial model. A p value ≤ 0.05 was considered to be statistically significant. The local medical ethics committee gave their approval to this study. Results: The mean age of patients was 45.8 years old. The overall survival rate was 48% at 11 years. The major causes of death were cardiovascular diseases (34%) and infections (15%). Logistic regression analysis found statistical significance for the following variables: age (p = 0.000038), TT angiotensinogen (p = 0.08261), and family income greater than five times the minimum wage (p = 0.03089), the latter being a protective factor. Conclusions: The survival of hemodialysis patients is likely to be influenced by the TT of the angiotensinogen M235T gene.

A marxian model of the breakdown of capitalism

This paper sets out a Marxian model that is based on the one by Stephen Marglin with one sector and continuous substitution. It is extended by adding technical progress and land as a factor of production. It is then shown that capital accumulation causes the preconditions for the breakdown of capitalism to emerge; that is, it causes the organic composition of capital to rise, the rate of profit to fall and the rate of exploitation to rise. A compressed history of the idea of the breakdown of capitalism is then set out and an explanation is given as to how the model relates to this and how it may serve as the basis for further research.

Understanding sources of the change in international business cycles

Macroeconomic activity has become less volatile over the past three decades in most G7 economies. Current literature focuses on the characterization of the volatility reduction and explanations for this so called "moderation" in each G7 economy separately. In opposed to individual country analysis and individual variable analysis, this paper focuses on common characteristics of the reduction and common explanations for the moderation in G7 countries. In particular, we study three explanations: structural changes in the economy, changes in common international shocks and changes in domestic shocks. We study these explanations in a unified model structure. To this end, we propose a Bayesian factor structural vector autoregressive model. Using the proposed model, we investigate whether we can find common explanations for all G7 economies when information is pooled from multiple domestic and international sources. Our empirical analysis suggests that volatility reductions can largely be attributed to the decline in the magnitudes of the shocks in most G7 countries while only for the U.K., the U.S. and Italy they can partially be attributed to structural changes in the economy. Analyzing the components of the volatility, we also find that domestic shocks rather than common international shocks can account for a large part of the volatility reduction in most of the G7 countries. Finally, we find that after mid-1980s the structure of the economy changes substantially in five of the G7 countries: Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S..

Which screening strategy using BMD measurements would be most cost effective for hip fracture prevention in elderly women? A decision analysis based on a Markov model.

INTRODUCTION: Hip fractures are responsible for excessive mortality, decreasing the 5-year survival rate by about 20%. From an economic perspective, they represent a major source of expense, with direct costs in hospitalization, rehabilitation, and institutionalization. The incidence rate sharply increases after the age of 70, but it can be reduced in women aged 70-80 years by therapeutic interventions. Recent analyses suggest that the most efficient strategy is to implement such interventions in women at the age of 70 years. As several guidelines recommend bone mineral density (BMD) screening of postmenopausal women with clinical risk factors, our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of two screening strategies applied to elderly women aged 70 years and older. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using decision-tree analysis and a Markov model. Two alternative strategies, one measuring BMD of all women, and one measuring BMD only of those having at least one risk factor, were compared with the reference strategy "no screening". Cost-effectiveness ratios were measured as cost per year gained without hip fracture. Most probabilities were based on data observed in EPIDOS, SEMOF and OFELY cohorts. RESULTS: In this model, which is mostly based on observed data, the strategy "screen all" was more cost effective than "screen women at risk." For one woman screened at the age of 70 and followed for 10 years, the incremental (additional) cost-effectiveness ratio of these two strategies compared with the reference was 4,235 euros and 8,290 euros, respectively. CONCLUSION: The results of this model, under the assumptions described in the paper, suggest that in women aged 70-80 years, screening all women with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) would be more effective than no screening or screening only women with at least one risk factor. Cost-effectiveness studies based on decision-analysis trees maybe useful tools for helping decision makers, and further models based on different assumptions should be performed to improve the level of evidence on cost-effectiveness ratios of the usual screening strategies for osteoporosis.

Expression of Staphylococcus aureus clumping factor A in Lactococcus lactis subsp. cremoris using a new shuttle vector.

Staphylococcus aureus harbors redundant adhesins mediating tissue colonization and infection. To evaluate their intrinsic role outside of the staphylococcal background, a system was designed to express them in Lactococcus lactis subsp. cremoris 1363. This bacterium is devoid of virulence factors and has a known genetic background. A new Escherichia coli-L. lactis shuttle and expression vector was constructed for this purpose. First, the high-copy-number lactococcal plasmid pIL253 was equipped with the oriColE1 origin, generating pOri253 that could replicate in E. coli. Second, the lactococcal promoters P23 or P59 were inserted at one end of the pOri253 multicloning site. Gene expression was assessed by a luciferase reporter system. The plasmid carrying P23 (named pOri23) expressed luciferase constitutively at a level 10,000 times greater than did the P59-containing plasmid. Transcription was absent in E. coli. The staphylococcal clumping factor A (clfA) gene was cloned into pOri23 and used as a model system. Lactococci carrying pOri23-clfA produced an unaltered and functional 130-kDa ClfA protein attached to their cell walls. This was indicated both by the presence of the protein in Western blots of solubilized cell walls and by the ability of ClfA-positive lactococci to clump in the presence of plasma. ClfA-positive lactococci had clumping titers (titer of 4,112) similar to those of S. aureus Newman in soluble fibrinogen and bound equally well to solid-phase fibrinogen. These experiments provide a new way to study individual staphylococcal pathogenic factors and might complement both classical knockout mutagenesis and modern in vivo expression technology and signature tag mutagenesis.

Use of a human-like low-grade bacteremia model of experimental endocarditis to study the role of Staphylococcus aureus adhesins and platelet aggregation in early endocarditis.

Animal models of infective endocarditis (IE) induced by high-grade bacteremia revealed the pathogenic roles of Staphylococcus aureus surface adhesins and platelet aggregation in the infection process. In humans, however, S. aureus IE possibly occurs through repeated bouts of low-grade bacteremia from a colonized site or intravenous device. Here we used a rat model of IE induced by continuous low-grade bacteremia to explore further the contributions of S. aureus virulence factors to the initiation of IE. Rats with aortic vegetations were inoculated by continuous intravenous infusion (0.0017 ml/min over 10 h) with 10(6) CFU of Lactococcus lactis pIL253 or a recombinant L. lactis strain expressing an individual S. aureus surface protein (ClfA, FnbpA, BCD, or SdrE) conferring a particular adhesive or platelet aggregation property. Vegetation infection was assessed 24 h later. Plasma was collected at 0, 2, and 6 h postinoculation to quantify the expression of tumor necrosis factor (TNF), interleukin 1α (IL-1α), IL-1β, IL-6, and IL-10. The percentage of vegetation infection relative to that with strain pIL253 (11%) increased when binding to fibrinogen was conferred on L. lactis (ClfA strain) (52%; P = 0.007) and increased further with adhesion to fibronectin (FnbpA strain) (75%; P < 0.001). Expression of fibronectin binding alone was not sufficient to induce IE (BCD strain) (10% of infection). Platelet aggregation increased the risk of vegetation infection (SdrE strain) (30%). Conferring adhesion to fibrinogen and fibronectin favored IL-1β and IL-6 production. Our results, with a model of IE induced by low-grade bacteremia, resembling human disease, extend the essential role of fibrinogen binding in the initiation of S. aureus IE. Triggering of platelet aggregation or an inflammatory response may contribute to or promote the development of IE.

Countercyclical Fiscal Policy and Cyclical Factor Utilization

In a neoclassical growth model with monopolistic competition in the product market, the presence of cyclical factor utilization enhances the stabilization role of countercyclical taxes. The costs of varying capital utilization take the form of varying rates of depreciation, which in turn have amplifying effect on investment decisions as well as the volatility of most aggregate variables. This creates an additional channel through which taxes affect the economy, a channel that enhances the stabilization role of countercyclical taxes, with particularly strong effects in the labor market. However, in terms of welfare, countercyclical taxes are welfare inferior due to reduced precautionary saving motives.

Model Switching and Model Averaging in Time- Varying Parameter Regression Models

This paper investigates the usefulness of switching Gaussian state space models as a tool for implementing dynamic model selecting (DMS) or averaging (DMA) in time-varying parameter regression models. DMS methods allow for model switching, where a different model can be chosen at each point in time. Thus, they allow for the explanatory variables in the time-varying parameter regression model to change over time. DMA will carry out model averaging in a time-varying manner. We compare our exact approach to DMA/DMS to a popular existing procedure which relies on the use of forgetting factor approximations. In an application, we use DMS to select different predictors in an in ation forecasting application. We also compare different ways of implementing DMA/DMS and investigate whether they lead to similar results.

Factor Proportions and the Growth of World Trade

Most of the expansion of global trade during the last three decades has been of the North-South kind - between capital-abundant developed and labour-abundant developing countries. Based on this observation, I argue that the recent growth of world trade is best understood from a factor-proportions perspective. I present novel evidence documenting that differences in capital-labour ratios across countries have increased in the wake of two shocks to the global economy: i) the opening up of China and ii) financial globalisation and the resulting upstream capital flows towards capital-abundant regions. I analyse their impact on specialisation and the volume of trade in a dynamic model which combines factor-proportions trade in goods with international trade in financial assets. Calibrating this model, I find that it can account for 60% of world trade growth between 1980 and 2007. It is also capable of predicting international investment patterns which are consistent with the data

A toxicokinetic model to assess exposure to folpet fungicide from urinary biomarkers

Folpet is one of the most widely employed fungicides in agriculture. It is typically used in the culture of vegetables, fruits and ornamental plants. Once absorbed in the human body, it has been found to be very reactive, especially in acid conditions. According to various in vitro and in vivo experiments in animals, Folpet is first fractioned at the N-S link when in contact with aqueous solutions and thiol groups. From this non-enzymatic process a phthalimide (PI) molecule is formed, which may be used as a biomarker of exposure, along with the short-lived thiophosgene. We have built a human toxicokinetic model to account for the biotransformation of Folpet into PI and its subsequent excretion while accounting for other non-monitored metabolites. The mathematical parameters of the model were determined accordingly from best-fits to the time courses of PI in blood and urine of five volunteers administered orally 1 mg/kg and dermally 10 mg/kg of Folpet. In both cases, the mean elimination half-life of PI from the body (either through faeces, urine or metabolism) was found to be 31.6 h. The average final fractions of administered dose recovered in urine as PI were 0.025% and 0.002%, for oral and dermal administration, respectively after 96 h. According to the model, when orally administered, PI rapidly hydrolyzes to phthalamic and phthalic acids such that only 0.04% of the PI found in the gastrointestinal tract is absorbed into the blood stream. Likewise, after dermal application, model predicts that only 7.4% of the applied Folpet dose crosses the epidermis. In the model, the PI initial metabolite of Folpet is formed in the dermis and further metabolized prior to reaching systemic circulation, such that only 0.125% of PI formed at the site-of-entry reaches systemic blood. Our mathematical model is in accordance with both measures of blood (R2=0.57 for dermal and R2=0.66 for oral) and urine (R2 =0.98 for dermal and R2=0.99 for oral).

Tax smoothing in a business cycle model with capital-skill complementarity

This paper undertakes a normative investigation of the quantitative properties of optimal tax smoothing in a business cycle model with state contingent debt, capital-skill complementarity, endogenous skill formation and stochastic shocks to public consumption as well as total factor and capital equipment productivity. Our main finding is that an empirically relevant restriction which does not allow the relative supply of skilled labour to adjust in response to aggregate shocks, signi cantly changes the cyclical properties of optimal labour taxes. Under a restricted relative skill supply, the government fi nds it optimal to adjust labour income tax rates so that the average net returns to skilled and unskilled labour hours exhibit the same dynamic behaviour as under fl exible skill supply.

Prospective validation of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index. A clinical prognostic model for pulmonary embolism

Practice guidelines recommend outpatient care for selected patients with non-massive pulmonary embolism (PE), but fail to specify how these low-risk patients should be identified. Using data from U.S. patients, we previously derived the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), a prediction rule that risk stratifies patients with PE. We sought to validate the PESI in a European patient cohort. We prospectively validated the PESI in patients with PE diagnosed at six emergency departments in three European countries. We used baseline data for the rule's 11 prognostic variables to stratify patients into five risk classes (I-V) of increasing probability of mortality. The outcome was overall mortality at 90 days after presentation. To assess the accuracy of the PESI to predict mortality, we estimated the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values for low- (risk classes I/II) versus higher-risk patients (risk classes III-V), and the discriminatory power using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Among 357 patients with PE, overall mortality was 5.9%, ranging from 0% in class I to 17.9% in class V. The 186 (52%) low-risk patients had an overall mortality of 1.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1-3.8%) compared to 11.1% (95% CI: 6.8-16.8%) in the 171 (48%) higher-risk patients. The PESI had a high sensitivity (91%, 95% CI: 71-97%) and a negative predictive value (99%, 95% CI: 96-100%) for predicting mortality. The area under the ROC curve was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.70-0.86). The PESI reliably identifies patients with PE who are at low risk of death and who are potential candidates for outpatient care. The PESI may help physicians make more rational decisions about hospitalization for patients with PE.

Allergen-induced IgE-dependent gut inflammation in a human PBMC-engrafted murine model of allergy.

BACKGROUND: Humanized murine models comprise a new tool to analyze novel therapeutic strategies for allergic diseases of the intestine.¦OBJECTIVE: In this study we developed a human PBMC-engrafted murine model of allergen-driven gut inflammation and analyzed the underlying immunologic mechanisms.¦METHODS: Nonobese diabetic (NOD)-scid-γc(-/-) mice were injected intraperitoneally with human PBMCs from allergic donors together with the respective allergen or not. Three weeks later, mice were challenged with the allergen orally or rectally, and gut inflammation was monitored with a high-resolution video miniendoscopic system, as well as histologically.¦RESULTS: Using the aeroallergens birch or grass pollen as model allergens and, for some donors, also hazelnut allergen, we show that allergen-specific human IgE in murine sera and allergen-specific proliferation and cytokine production of human CD4(+) T cells recovered from spleens after 3 weeks could only be measured in mice treated with PBMCs plus allergen. Importantly, these mice had the highest endoscopic scores evaluating translucent structure, granularity, fibrin, vascularity, and stool after oral or rectal allergen challenge and a strong histologic inflammation of the colon. Analyzing the underlying mechanisms, we demonstrate that allergen-associated colitis was dependent on IgE, human IgE receptor-expressing effector cells, and the mediators histamine and platelet-activating factor.¦CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate that allergic gut inflammation can be induced in human PBMC-engrafted mice, allowing the investigation of pathophysiologic mechanisms of allergic diseases of the intestine and evaluation of therapeutic interventions.

A corneal dystrophy associated with transforming growth factor beta-induced Gly623Asp mutation an amyloidogenic phenotype.

PURPOSE: To present the light and electron microscopic findings of a unique corneal dystrophy never before described in a German family carrying the Gly623Asp Mutation of the TGFBI gene with late clinical onset. DESIGN: Experimental study. PARTICIPANTS: Four affected and 6 nonaffected family members. METHODS: Slit-lamp examination, photographic documentation, and isolation of genomic DNA from peripheral blood leucocytes obtained from each family member examined. Exons 3, 4, 5, and 11 to 14 of the TGFBI gene were amplified and sequenced in these family members. Five corneal buttons of 3 affected siblings were excised at the time of penetrating keratoplasty. Light and electron microscopic examination were performed including immunohistochemistry with antibodies against keratoepithelin (KE) 2 and 15. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Clinical and histologic characteristics of corneal opacification in affected patients and presence of coding region changes in the TGFBI gene. RESULTS: The specimens showed destructive changes in Bowman's layer and the adjacent stroma. Patchy Congo red-positive amyloid deposits were found within the epithelium in 1 cornea, in Bowman's layer and in the anterior stroma of all specimens also showing KE2, but not KE15, immunostaining. Electron microscopy revealed deposits mainly located in the anterior stroma and Bowman's layer and in small amounts in the basal area of some epithelial cells. The destroyed areas were strongly Alcian blue-positive, the Masson Trichrome stain proved mainly negative for the deposits. All affected but none of the unaffected family members had a heterozygous missense mutation in exon 14 of the TGFBI gene (G-->A transition at nucleotide 1915) replacing glycin by aspartic acid amino acid (Gly623Asp) at position 623 of the KE protein. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast with the patient carrying the Gly623Asp mutation of the TGFBI gene described by Afshari et al, our cases presented with Salzmann's nodular degeneration-like clinical features and their specimens contained KE2-positive amyloid. The reason for this now "meeting the expectation histologic phenotype" is unclear. The histologic findings emphasize that this is a unique corneal dystrophy, which shares no clinical characteristics with Reis-Bücklers' dystrophy and should be treated as a distinct entity. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): The authors have no proprietary or commercial interest in any materials discussed in this article.