Első- és másodfajú etikai kudarcok (Type I and type II ethical errors)

A cikkben a szerző a piac és a kormányzat kudarcaiból kiindulva azonosítja a közjó elérését célzó harmadik rendszer, az etikai felelősség kudarcait. Statisztikai analógiát használva elsőfajú kudarcként azonosítja, mikor az etikát nem veszik figyelembe, pedig szükség van rá. Ugyanakkor másodfajú kudarcként kezeli az etika profitnövelést célzó használatát, mely megtéveszti az érintetteteket, így még szélesebb utat enged az opportunista üzleti tevékenységnek. Meglátása szerint a három rendszer egymást nemcsak kiegészíti, de kölcsönösen korrigálja is. Ez az elsőfajú kudarc esetében általánosabb, a másodfajú kudarc megoldásához azonban a gazdasági élet alapvetéseinek átfogalmazására, az önérdek és az egydimenziós teljesítményértékelés helyett egy új, holisztikusabb szemléletű közgazdaságra van szükség. _______ In the article the author identifies the errors of ethical responsibility. That is the third system to attain common good, but have similar failures like the other two: the hands of the market and the government. Using statistical analogy the author identifies Type I error when ethics are not considered but it should be (null hypothesis is rejected however it’s true). She treats the usage of ethics to extend profit as Type II error. This misleads the stakeholders and makes room for opportunistic behaviour in business (null hypothesis is accepted in turn it’s false). In her opinion the three systems: the hand of the market, the government and the ethical management not only amend but interdependently correct each other. In the case of Type I error it is more general. Nevertheless to solve the Type II error we have to redefine the core principles of business. We need a more holistic approach in economics instead of self-interest and one-dimensional interpretation of value.

Európai Unió: túlélés vagy távlati tervezés – az állam változó szerepei (European Union – survival or long term planning?)

Az EU-ban, a mai állapotok szerint, csak „transzferunióról” beszélhetünk és nem egységes piacról. Az eurós pénzfolyamatok eltorzítva közvetítik a versenyképességet is: mind az árukban és vagyontárgyakban, mind – főleg – a pénzügyi eszközökben megtestesült munkákat/teljesítményeket rosszul árazzák. Egy ilyen keretben különösen könnyen alakul ki az, amit potyautas-problémának nevezünk, vagyis ahol tényleges vagy mérhető teljesítményleadás, vagy éppen fizetés nélkül lehet fogyasztani, és túl olcsón lehet szabad forrásokhoz jutni. Az eurózóna számos közvetítő mechanizmusában is tökéletlen. A sok, szuverénadósság-présbe került tagország között van kicsi, közepes és nagy is. Ez a tény, valamint az általános növekedési és munkapiaci problémák, egyértelműen „rendszerszintű zavarokat” jeleznek, amelyeket ebben a dolgozatban teljesítmény közvetítési-átviteli problémának hívunk, és ezért egy szokatlan, ám annál beszédesebb, elektromosenergia-átviteli rendszeranalógiával segítünk értelmezni. Megmutatjuk, hogy egy jó nagyvállalat miért jobb pénzügyi tervező, mint egy azonos méretű állam. _____ Why are ill-defined transfer mechanisms diverting valuable assets and resources to the wrong destination within the EU? Why do we witness ongoing pressure in the EU banking sector and in government finances? We offer an unusual answer to these questions: we apply an analogy from physics (from an electric generation and distribution network) to show the transmission inefficiency and waste, respectively, of the EU distribution mechanisms. We demonstrate that there are inherent flaws in both the measurement and in the distribution of assets and resources amongst the key EU markets: goods, money and factor markets. In addition, we find that when international equalizer mechanism is at work (cohesion funds allocated), many of these equity functions are at risk with respect to their reliable measurement. Especially are at risk the metered load factors, likewise the loss/waste factors. The map of desired outcomes does not match the real outcome, since EUtransfers in general are put to work with low efficiency.

Regional climate change impacts on wild animals' living territory in Central Europe

In this paper the projected future impact of climate change has been analyzed for the quality of living conditions of the European terrestrial vertebrates (amphibians, reptiles, birds, mammals) in the Carpathian Basin. According to the climate scenarios, warmer and drier climatic conditions are likely to occur in the Carpathian Basin by end of this century. Simultaneous analysis of climate parameters, climate simulations and animal range datasets enables us to evaluate the vulnerability of different European species to regional warming and climate change. The spatial climate analogy technique is used to analyze the estimated rapid change of the wild animals’ habitats and their northward migration. For the reference climate data of Debrecen is considered, and three spatial analogue regions are compared. The results suggest that generally a significant decline in habitats is very likely for most of the analyzed animal groups by the end of the 21st century. The largest rate of decline is estimated for birds. However, living conditions for reptiles may improve in the future due to the warmer and drier climatic conditions, which are favourable for these species.

A hiány újratermelése (The reproduction of shortage)

Sporadic lack of consumer articles, the housing shortage, disturbances of material supply, and shortages of investment goods and of labour may be traced back to a common main cause. Shortage is constantly reproduced by specific features of the economic mechanism. The first part of the article consists of micro-analysis, mainly of the productive enterprise. Efforts to increase production may run up against ceilings of three kinds: constraints on physical resources, constraints on demand, and the budget constraint on enterprises. It is an important feature of a system which of these constraints takes effect. Resource-constrained systems can be distinguished from demand-constrained ones here. In the former, production is limited by production bottlenecks, in the latter by buyer demand. The socialist economy in its "classical" form belongs to the former type. It is related to whether the budget constraint on the enterprise is "hard" or "soft". If hard, enterprise spending is limited by its financial scope, if soft (its losses offset almost automatically) its demand becomes almost insatiable. The second part performs a macro-analysis, showing the mechanism of "suction" with the aid of a hydraulic analogy. The enterprise sector "pumps away" reserves and surpluses of the system, mainly due to the "investment hunger" that appears in the wake of expansionist efforts. Finally the article discusses briefly the interrelations between shortage and inflation.

Lattice Boltzmann modeling of fluid flow and solute transport in karst aquifers

A novel modeling approach is applied to karst hydrology. Long-standing problems in karst hydrology and solute transport are addressed using Lattice Boltzmann methods (LBMs). These methods contrast with other modeling approaches that have been applied to karst hydrology. The motivation of this dissertation is to develop new computational models for solving ground water hydraulics and transport problems in karst aquifers, which are widespread around the globe. This research tests the viability of the LBM as a robust alternative numerical technique for solving large-scale hydrological problems. The LB models applied in this research are briefly reviewed and there is a discussion of implementation issues. The dissertation focuses on testing the LB models. The LBM is tested for two different types of inlet boundary conditions for solute transport in finite and effectively semi-infinite domains. The LBM solutions are verified against analytical solutions. Zero-diffusion transport and Taylor dispersion in slits are also simulated and compared against analytical solutions. These results demonstrate the LBM’s flexibility as a solute transport solver. The LBM is applied to simulate solute transport and fluid flow in porous media traversed by larger conduits. A LBM-based macroscopic flow solver (Darcy’s law-based) is linked with an anisotropic dispersion solver. Spatial breakthrough curves in one and two dimensions are fitted against the available analytical solutions. This provides a steady flow model with capabilities routinely found in ground water flow and transport models (e.g., the combination of MODFLOW and MT3D). However the new LBM-based model retains the ability to solve inertial flows that are characteristic of karst aquifer conduits. Transient flows in a confined aquifer are solved using two different LBM approaches. The analogy between Fick’s second law (diffusion equation) and the transient ground water flow equation is used to solve the transient head distribution. An altered-velocity flow solver with source/sink term is applied to simulate a drawdown curve. Hydraulic parameters like transmissivity and storage coefficient are linked with LB parameters. These capabilities complete the LBM’s effective treatment of the types of processes that are simulated by standard ground water models. The LB model is verified against field data for drawdown in a confined aquifer.

Goma curriculum, a character education paradigm: Composing a text for shaping classroom character culture

The written text, and approaches to reading it, serves well as an analogy for the classroom space as a "text" that teachers are able to compose; and students are able to read, interpret meaning(s) of, and make responses to and about (Rosenblatt, 1988). Researchers point to ways in which the classroom can be conceptualized as a text to be evoked, experienced, and read (Freire & Macedo, 1987; Powell, 2009; Rosenblatt, 1988; Spears-Bunton & Powell, 2009).^ The present study analyzed secondary data including: 10 transcripts of teacher talks and six self-reports retrieved from the program evaluation archives of DOR Foundation. The data described six teachers' classroom experiences subsequent to professional development centered on Goma character education curriculum that was used during a summer youth program located in South Georgia. Goma, an acronym that stands for Goal, Objective, Method, and Attitude, is a character education paradigm derived from The Inclusive Community Building Ellison Model, the theoretical framework used for this study. The Model identifies conflict resolution as one of its five foci (Hunt, Howard, & Rice, 1998). Hunt (2006) conceived Goma as part of a 7-Step unitary process, also named the 7-Step pathway, to demonstrate how conflict resolution is accomplished within a variety of contexts.^ Analysis of the data involved: (a) a priori coding of teacher talks transcripts using the components of the Goma 7-Step pathway as coding categories, (b) emergent coding of teacher talks transcripts for the types of experiences teachers evidenced, and (c) emergent coding of teachers' self-reports for categories of teachers' instructional activities. Results of the study showed positive influence of Goma curriculum on participating teachers and their instructional practices. Teachers were shown to have had cognitive, instructional, emotional, and social experiences that were most evident when they reported changes in their attitudes toward their students, themselves, and their instructional practices. The present study provided implications for classroom teachers wherein all aspects of teachers' instructional practices can be guided by principles of positive character; and can be used to help compose the kinds of "texts" that may likely contribute to a classroom character culture.^

Making and Evaluating Strategy: Learning from the Military

Use of military analogy is rampant and considered an acceptable part of business vernacular. However, analogies only illustrate, and bad analogies make bad strategy. There are important lessons to be learned from military strategy, though. This article identifies "the ten principles of strategy" that corporate strategists could utilize in testing their strategic theories, concepts, and plans.

The Specialist: Coming Soon To Your Local Hotel

In an article entitled - The Specialist: Coming Soon To Your Local Hotel - by Stan Bromley, Regional Vice President and General Manager, Four Seasons Clift Hotel, San Francisco, the author’s introduction states: “An experienced hotelier discusses the importance of the delivery of a high “quality-to-value” ratio consistently to guests, particularly as the hotel market becomes specialized and a distinction is drawn between a “property” and a “hotel.” The author’s primary intention is to make you, the reader, aware of changes in the hospitality/hotel marketplace. From the embryo to the contemporary, the hotel market has consistently evolved; this includes but is not limited to mission statement, marketing, management, facilities, and all the tangibles and intangibles of the total hotel experience. “Although we are knocking ourselves out trying to be everything to everyone, I don't think hotel consumers are as interested in “mixing and matching” as they were in the past,” Bromley says. “Today's hotel guest is looking for “specialized care,” and is increasingly skeptical of our industry-wide hotel ads and promises of greatness.” As an example Bromley makes an analogy using retail outlets such as Macy’s, Saks, and Sears, which cater to their own unique market segment. Hotels now follow the same outline, he allows. “In my view, two key factors will make a hotel a success,” advises Bromley. “First, know your specialty and market to that segment. Second, make sure you consistently offer a high quality-to-value ratio. That means every day.” To emphasize that second point, Bromley offers this bolstering thought, “The second factor that will make or break your business is your ability to deliver a high "quality/value" ratio-and to do so consistently.” The author evidently considers quality-to-value ratio to be an important element. Bromley emphasizes the importance of convention and trade show business to the hotel industry. That business element cannot be over-estimated in his opinion. This doesn’t mean an operator who can accommodate that type of business should exclude other client opportunities outside the target market. It does mean, however, these secondary opportunities should only be addressed after pursuing the primary target strategy. After all, the largest profit margin lies in the center of the target. To amplify the above statement, and in reference to his own experience, Bromley says, “Being in the luxury end of the business I, on the other hand, need to uncover and book individuals and small corporate meetings more than convention or association business.

Lattice Boltzmann Modeling of Fluid Flow and Solute Transport in Karst Aquifers

A novel modeling approach is applied to karst hydrology. Long-standing problems in karst hydrology and solute transport are addressed using Lattice Boltzmann methods (LBMs). These methods contrast with other modeling approaches that have been applied to karst hydrology. The motivation of this dissertation is to develop new computational models for solving ground water hydraulics and transport problems in karst aquifers, which are widespread around the globe. This research tests the viability of the LBM as a robust alternative numerical technique for solving large-scale hydrological problems. The LB models applied in this research are briefly reviewed and there is a discussion of implementation issues. The dissertation focuses on testing the LB models. The LBM is tested for two different types of inlet boundary conditions for solute transport in finite and effectively semi-infinite domains. The LBM solutions are verified against analytical solutions. Zero-diffusion transport and Taylor dispersion in slits are also simulated and compared against analytical solutions. These results demonstrate the LBM’s flexibility as a solute transport solver. The LBM is applied to simulate solute transport and fluid flow in porous media traversed by larger conduits. A LBM-based macroscopic flow solver (Darcy’s law-based) is linked with an anisotropic dispersion solver. Spatial breakthrough curves in one and two dimensions are fitted against the available analytical solutions. This provides a steady flow model with capabilities routinely found in ground water flow and transport models (e.g., the combination of MODFLOW and MT3D). However the new LBM-based model retains the ability to solve inertial flows that are characteristic of karst aquifer conduits. Transient flows in a confined aquifer are solved using two different LBM approaches. The analogy between Fick’s second law (diffusion equation) and the transient ground water flow equation is used to solve the transient head distribution. An altered-velocity flow solver with source/sink term is applied to simulate a drawdown curve. Hydraulic parameters like transmissivity and storage coefficient are linked with LB parameters. These capabilities complete the LBM’s effective treatment of the types of processes that are simulated by standard ground water models. The LB model is verified against field data for drawdown in a confined aquifer.

Computer program for the analysis of non-prismatic beams

One of the major problems in the analysis of beams with Moment of Inertia varying along their length, is to find the Fixed End Moments, Stiffness, and Carry-Over Factors. In order to determine Fixed End Moments, it is necessary to consider the non-prismatic member as integrated by a large number of small sections with constant Moment of Inertia, and to find the M/EI values for each individual section. This process takes a lot of time from Designers and Structural Engineers. The object of this thesis is to design a computer program to simplify this repetitive process, obtaining rapidly and effectively the Final Moments and Shears in continuous non-prismatic Beams. For this purpose the Column Analogy and the Moment Distribution Methods of Professor Hardy Cross have been utilized as the principles toward the methodical computer solutions. The program has been specifically designed to analyze continuous beams of a maximum of four spans of any length, integrated by symmetrical members with rectangular cross sections and with rectilinear variation of the Moment of Inertia. Any load or combination of uniform and concentrated loads must be considered. Finally sample problems will be solved with the new Computer Program and with traditional systems, to determine the accuracy and applicability of the Program.

Metafísica do tempo presente: sobre o programa de Walter Benjamin a uma filosofia vindoura

Our thesis tracks down and explores a method of reading Walter Benjamin´s texts and examines his proposal to a "coming philosophy" by highlighting his higher concept of "experience" (Erfahrung) for the foundation of a metaphysics for the Now-Time. Accordingly, it starts first from the application of the method and analyzes what is to be rescued from the Kantian legacy, as indicated in Benjamin´s youth "Program for a coming Philosophy" (1917-1918). Then, to discuss and evaluate Benjamin´s project of a "coming philosophy" several youth´s texts are compared with later texts which propose a new concept of experience as both aesthetic and historical basis for a philosophy of "NowTime" (Jetztzeit). Finally, by analogy with Kant´s critical attitude against dogmatic metaphysics the challenge of metaphysics today is discussed, especially Benjamin´s proposal to "Now-Time-Metaphysics" within the context of crisis and bankruptcy of explanatory models of reality in philosophy.

Atuações e papéis femininos: o corpo a corpo da atriz no teatro pernambucano durante a ditadura militar

This research investigated the female performance in Pernambuco theater during the Brazilian military dictator ship in the 1970s, analyzing the works of four actresses of theater groups Hermilo Borba Filho, Experiential and Expression, who acted in the period. Launches a look at the female body in the theater from a body scenic transgression: the conscience of a body insubordination in response to a given context. However, before delineated an overview of the artistic and socio - cultural position of women in the theater, in the periods prior to the dictatorship in Brazil and Pernambuco, covering theatrical and historical references, in order to reflect on how these settings interfered in the picture Social actr ess under the dictatorship. The groups are revisited by the looks of interpreters, which was perceived that female targeted search relationships, and in this context, relations with other theater groups of the time, with other artists of the groups that we re inserted with the dictatorial context with censorship, with the offender engaged and theater, with the body. In parallel, it develops a reflection on the scenic body that opposed the dictatorship, a body that violates the established norms, the Transgre ssor Body. The research also discusses an analogy between the work of the actresses who opposed the military regime and militant women. Starting from analyzes with interviews with the actresses from the methodologies of Oral History and Discourse Analysis, the study is developed by building up connections between the testimonies of the artists and the philosophical assumptions of Henri Bergson, on the body and memory. It is also designed to reflect on the changes of the female body in the theater in history , also in line with the philosophical concept of Becoming Woman Felix Guattari. It was found, therefore, that the actresses from the nineteenth century, were a group of female social actors who changed the position of women in history; the stigmatization o f the actress by profession, considered indecent in previous centuries, left traces in some areas today and the idea of the liberation of the female body propagated by feminism in the 1970s, was configured at the time as the best way to protest and will influence, in some contexts, the representation of women in their theatrical make.

Validade científica de conhecimento epidemiológico gerado com base no estudo Saúde Bucal Brasil 2003

Indicators and analyses that used the database from SB Brazil 2003 (the most recent nationwide oral health survey) have been criticized as unreliable due to sampling problems. The current study countered that this critique was based solely on statistical concepts, unsupported by empirical evidence. The critique's essentially epistemic approach leads to peremptory reductionism that denies other forms of knowledge and fails to recognize the multidisciplinary nature of epidemiology. The current study retrieves information on the implementation of the oral health survey and its impact on knowledge output in the field. The article draws an analogy between science and art, demonstrating the multifaceted images obtained by both. Thus, recognition of validity requires a full grasp of the field and appropriate use of value criteria. The current article concludes that use of the SB Brazil 2003 database is a reliable and relevant application of epidemiology to oral health.

Validade científica de conhecimento epidemiológico gerado com base no estudo Saúde Bucal Brasil 2003

Indicators and analyses that used the database from SB Brazil 2003 (the most recent nationwide oral health survey) have been criticized as unreliable due to sampling problems. The current study countered that this critique was based solely on statistical concepts, unsupported by empirical evidence. The critique's essentially epistemic approach leads to peremptory reductionism that denies other forms of knowledge and fails to recognize the multidisciplinary nature of epidemiology. The current study retrieves information on the implementation of the oral health survey and its impact on knowledge output in the field. The article draws an analogy between science and art, demonstrating the multifaceted images obtained by both. Thus, recognition of validity requires a full grasp of the field and appropriate use of value criteria. The current article concludes that use of the SB Brazil 2003 database is a reliable and relevant application of epidemiology to oral health.

Representações discursivas sobre lampião e seu bando em notícias de jornais mossoroenses (1927): “O mais audaz e miserável de todos os bandidos” e o seu “grupo de asseclas”

In this doctoral thesis analyzed the discursive representations of the bandit Lampião, the Lantern and his bandits gang in news mossoroenses newspapers published in the twenties of the last century (1927), when the gang invasion of the city of Mossoro in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, on June 13 of that year. To this end, we take as basis the theoretical assumptions of linguistics Textual, especially the narrower context of what is known today as Textual Analysis of the Discourses (ADT), theoretical and descriptive approach to linguistic studies of the text proposed by the French linguist Jean-Michel Adam. In this approach, we are interested in, specifically, the semantic level of the text, highlighting the notion of discursive representation, studied based on benchmarking operations, predication, modification, spatial location and temporal connection and analogy (ADAM, 2011; CASTILHO, 2010; KOCH, 2002, 2006; MARCUSCHI, 1998, 2008; NEVES, 2007; RODRIGUES, PASSEGGI & SILVA NETO, 2010). The corpus of this research consists of three reports in the twenties of the last century in newspapers The Mossoroense, Correio do Povo and the Northeast, and reconstituted through the collection held in the Municipal Museum Lauro Scotland files, Memorial Resistance Mossoro, both located in Natal, and in the news collection of Lampião newspapers in Natal, north of Rio Grande Raimundo Nonato historian. The discursive representations are built from the use of semantic analysis operations. Lampião to, the following representations are built: bandit, head of bandits, briber, defeated, Captain and Lord. To the outlaws of Lampião bunch of the following discursive representations were built: group, gang, gangsters, mates, bloodthirsty pack, brigands, bandits, criminals, burglar horde, and wild beasts. These representations reveal mainly the views of the newspapers of that time, which represented mainly the interests of traders, politicians, the government itself and generally Mossoró population.