A computable general equilibrium analysis of the relative price sensitivity required to induce rebound effects in response to an improvement in energy efficiency in the UK economy

In recent years there has been extensive debate in the energy economics and policy literature on the likely impacts of improvements in energy efficiency. This debate has focussed on the notion of rebound effects. Rebound effects occur when improvements in energy efficiency actually stimulate the direct and indirect demand for energy in production and/or consumption. This phenomenon occurs through the impact of the increased efficiency on the effective, or implicit, price of energy. If demand is stimulated in this way, the anticipated reduction in energy use, and the consequent environmental benefits, will be partially or possibly even more than wholly (in the case of ‘backfire’ effects) offset. A recent report published by the UK House of Lords identifies rebound effects as a plausible explanation as to why recent improvements in energy efficiency in the UK have not translated to reductions in energy demand at the macroeconomic level, but calls for empirical investigation of the factors that govern the extent of such effects. Undoubtedly the single most important conclusion of recent analysis in the UK, led by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) is that the extent of rebound and backfire effects is always and everywhere an empirical issue. It is simply not possible to determine the degree of rebound and backfire from theoretical considerations alone, notwithstanding the claims of some contributors to the debate. In particular, theoretical analysis cannot rule out backfire. Nor, strictly, can theoretical considerations alone rule out the other limiting case, of zero rebound, that a narrow engineering approach would imply. In this paper we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework to investigate the conditions under which rebound effects may occur in the Scottish regional and UK national economies. Previous work has suggested that rebound effects will occur even where key elasticities of substitution in production are set close to zero. Here, we carry out a systematic sensitivity analysis, where we gradually introduce relative price sensitivity into the system, focusing in particular on elasticities of substitution in production and trade parameters, in order to determine conditions under which rebound effects become a likely outcome. We find that, while there is positive pressure for rebound effects even where (direct and indirect) demand for energy is very price inelastic, this may be partially or wholly offset by negative income and disinvestment effects, which also occur in response to falling energy prices.

The Impact of Information Provision on Agglomeration Bonus Performance: An Experimental Study on Local Networks

The Agglomeration Bonus (AB) is a mechanism to induce adjacent landowners to spatially coordinate their land use for the delivery of ecosystem services from farmland. This paper uses laboratory experiments to explore the performance of the AB in achieving the socially optimal land management configuration in a local network environment where the information available to subjects varies. The AB poses a coordination problem between two Nash equilibria: a Pareto dominant and a risk dominant equilibrium. The experiments indicate that if subjects are informed about both their direct and indirect neighbors’ actions, they are more likely to coordinate on the Pareto dominant equilibrium relative to the case where subjects have information about their direct neighbors’ action only. However, the extra information can only delay – and not prevent – the transition to the socially inferior risk dominant Nash equilibrium. In the long run, the AB mechanism may only be partially effective in enhancing delivery of ecosystem services on farming landscapes featuring local networks.

Canvi climàtic i malalties infeccioses

El canvi climàtic és una realitat i té efectes, tant directes com indirectes, sobre la salut. Són necessàries actuacions concertades per abordar aquestes qüestions de salut pública plantejades pel canvi climàtic, així com també disposar de mecanismes per predir quina serà la seva evolució. En aquest projecte es discuteixen les malalties infeccioses adquirides a través de diferents vies (artròpodes vectors, rosegadors, aigua, aliments i aire) en referència al canvi climàtic al món i també a Catalunya. Basat en una extensa revisió dels treballs i articles publicats, i de comentaris d’experts, es presenta una avaluació dels canvis de les malalties infeccioses: incidència, prevalença i distribució dels patògens i vehicles transmissors en un entorn canviant. En el present estudi es detallen alguns dels casos més estudiats i demostrats d’emergència i reemergència de brots infecciosos a diferents zones del planeta associats a certes variacions en les variables climàtiques. Degut a l’alt nivell d’incertesa sobre el ritme del canvi climàtic i el seu impacte sobre les malalties infeccioses, es proposa un seguit de línies de futur. Una de les propostes és crear una xarxa integrada de dades ambientals i epidemiològiques, amb capacitat de connectar aquestes dades amb la vigilància dels patògens, vectors i de la qualitat de l’aigua, entre d’altres factors. Aquestes anàlisis podrien orientar les estratègies d’actuació en un futur per la protecció de la salut de la població.

Insect eggs suppress plant defence against chewing herbivores.

Plants activate direct and indirect defences in response to insect egg deposition. However, whether eggs can manipulate plant defence is unknown. In Arabidopsis thaliana, oviposition by the butterfly Pieris brassicae triggers cellular and molecular changes that are similar to the changes caused by biotrophic pathogens. In the present study, we found that the plant defence signal salicylic acid (SA) accumulates at the site of oviposition. This is unexpected, as the SA pathway controls defence against fungal and bacterial pathogens and negatively interacts with the jasmonic acid (JA) pathway, which is crucial for the defence against herbivores. Application of P. brassicae or Spodoptera littoralis egg extract onto leaves reduced the induction of insect-responsive genes after challenge with caterpillars, suggesting that egg-derived elicitors suppress plant defence. Consequently, larval growth of the generalist herbivore S. littoralis, but not of the specialist P. brassicae, was significantly higher on plants treated with egg extract than on control plants. In contrast, suppression of gene induction and enhanced S. littoralis performance were not seen in the SA-deficient mutant sid2-1, indicating that it is SA that mediates this phenomenon. These data reveal an intriguing facet of the cross-talk between SA and JA signalling pathways, and suggest that insects have evolved a way to suppress the induction of defence genes by laying eggs that release elicitors. We show here that egg-induced SA accumulation negatively interferes with the JA pathway, and provides an advantage for generalist herbivores.

IPH response to Department of Health (UK) Standardised Packaging of Tobacco Products

Enhanced tobacco control policies and programmes are an important component of any strategic approach to improving population health and tackling health inequalities. The consultation on standardised packaging of tobacco products in the UK is particularly timely in view of the recent publication of the Ten Year Tobacco Strategy for Northern Ireland (DHSSPS, 2012). In this strategy the Department expressed its support for the introduction of further measures to reduce the influence of tobacco advertising and promotion upon children e.g. the introduction of plain packaging for cigarettes and hand rolling tobacco.  IPH key points •    The extent of tobacco-related harm across the island of Ireland and across the UK is unacceptable. Increasingly comprehensive and effective tobacco-control interventions are required. •    IPH recommends the adoption of option 2: require standardised packaging of tobacco products. •    IPH acknowledges that as plain packaging has not yet been introduced in any country, it is not possible at this time to accurately forecast the extent and nature of this intervention on population level health outcomes in the UK context. •    The proposed approach appears comprehensive in addressing the direct and indirect ways in which elements of tobacco packaging can promote brand appeal and can portray impressions in respect of tobacco-related harm. Consideration should be given to include specific provisions relating to roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco packaging. Any approach needs to be regularly reviewed to take into account attempts to bypass restrictions and evaluate responses in respect of consumer choices. •    IPH considers that the introduction of plain packaging has the potential to support the achievement of the goals set out in the Ten Year Tobacco Control Strategy for Northern Ireland ( DHSSPS, 2012). •    Among children in Northern Ireland who reported trying their first cigarette, around one quarter were aged 11 or under and three quarters were 14 or under when they did so (DHSSPS, 2012).  The very young age of these children is concerning on many levels including their susceptibility to sophisticated branding and marketing techniques linked to tobacco packaging.

Astrocyte dense-core vesicle gliosecretion is governed by rest/nrsf

Astrocytes are the brain non-nerve cells competent for the expression of clear and dense-core vesicles (DCVs) and for their regulated exocytosis. This process, called gliosecretion, nearly resembles the neurosecretion occurring in neurons and neurosecretory cells. REST/NRSF is a transcription repressor known to orchestrate nerve-cell differentiation, governing the expression of hundreds of neuron-specific genes through their repression in the non-nerve and their fine modulation in the nerve cells. Our previous studies in neurosecretory rat PC12 cells identified REST as the critical factor for the expression not only of individual genes, but also of the whole neurosecretory process via multiple, direct and indirect mechanisms (D'Alessandro et al., J. Neurochem., 2008; Klajn et al., J. Neurosci., 2009). Therefore we wondered whether gliosecretion was governed by REST. We investigated rat astrocyte primary cultures: they exhibited high REST, which directly represses the transcription of at least one target gene, and expressed neither DCVs nor their markers (granins, peptides, membrane proteins). Transfection of a dominant-negative construct of REST (REST/ DBD-GFP) induced the appearance of DCVs filled with secretogranin2 and NPY that are distinct from other intracellular organelles. TIRF analysis of astrocytes co-transfected with REST/DBD-GFP and NPY-mRFP constructs revealed NPY-mRFP-positive DCVs undergoing Ca2þ-dependent exocytosis, largely prevented by BoNT/B. Immunohistochemistry of the I-II layers of the human temporal brain cortex showed all neurons and microglia exhibiting the expected inappreciable and high levels of REST, respectively. In contrast astrocyte RESTwas variable, going from inappreciable to high, accompanied by variable expression of DCVs. In this work it has been demonstrated that astrocyte DCV expression and gliosecretion are governed by REST (Prada et al., 2011 in press). The variable in situ REST levels may contribute to the well known structural/functional heterogeneity of astrocytes and this new observation might be of great interest for the understanding of both astrocyte physiology and pathology.

Minority report by the Alcohol Beverage Federation of Ireland

The Alcohol Beverage Federation of Ireland (ABFI) is the umbrella organisation for drinks industry manufacturers and suppliers. ABFI works to promote and support an environment that encourages the sustainable and responsible development of the alcohol beverage manufacturing sector in Ireland. The Irish drinks industry is a major national industry providing over 60,000 direct and indirect jobs, generating approximately â,¬2 billion in excise and VAT revenues for the State, and supporting some of Irelandâ?Ts most successful international export products. Last year, our exports were valued at over â,¬1bn, which is comparable to the total exports of prepared consumer foods. Click here to download PDF 210kb

Adult Learning Services

Evidence Review 4 - Adult learning services Briefing 4 - Adult learning services This pair of documents, commissioned by Public Health England, and written by the UCL Institute of Health Equity, address the role of participation in learning as an adult in improving health. There is evidence that involvement in adult learning has both direct and indirect links with health, for example because it increases employability. There is some evidence that those who are lower down the social gradient benefit most, in health terms, from adult learning. However, there is a gradient both in participation in adult learning and skill level, whereby the more someone would benefit from adult learning, the less likely they are to participate, and the lower their literacy and numeracy skills are likely to be. This is due to a range of barriers, including prohibitively high costs, lack of personal confidence, or lack of availability and access. These papers also show that there are a number of actions local authorities can take to increase access to adult learning, improve quality of provision and increase the extent to which it is delivered and targeted proportionate to need. The full evidence review and a shorter summary briefing are available to download above. This document is part of a series. An overview document which provides an introduction to this and other documents in the series, and links to the other topic areas, is available on the ‘Local Action on health inequalities’ project page. A video of Michael Marmot introducing the work is also available on our videos page.

Alzheimer's Disease Biomarkers, 2009

This report gives a comprehensive and up-to-date review of Alzheimer's disease biomarkers. Recent years have seen significant advances in this field. Whilst considerable effort has focused on A�_ and tau related markers, a substantial number of other molecules have been identified, that may offer new opportunities.This Report : Identifies 60 candidate Alzheimer's (AD) biomarkers and their associated studies. Of these, 49 are single species or single parameters, 7 are combinations or panels and 4 involve the measurement of two species or parameters or their ratios. These include proteins (n=34), genes (n=11), image-based parameters (n=7), small molecules (n=3), proteins + genes (n=2) and others (n=3). Of these, 30 (50%) relate to species identified in CSF and 19 (32%) were found in the blood. These candidate may be classified on the basis of their diagnostic utility, namely those which i) may allow AD to be detected when the disease has developed (48 of 75†= 64%), ii) may allow early detection of AD (18 of 75† = 24%) and iii) may allow AD to be predicted before the disease has begun to develop (9 of 75†= 12%). † Note: Of these, 11 were linked to two or more of these capabilities (e.g. allowed both early-stage detection as well as diagnosis after the disease has developed).Biomarkers: AD biomarkers identified in this report show significant diversity, however of the 60 described, 18 (30%) are associated with amyloid beta (A�_) and 9 (15%) relate to Tau. The remainder of the biomarkers (just over half) fall into a number of different groups. Of these, some are associated with other hypotheses on the pathogenesis of AD however the vast majority are individually unique and not obviously linked with other markers. Analysis and discussion presented in this report includes summaries of the studies and clinical trials that have lead to the identification of these markers. Where it has been calculated, diagnostic sensitivity, specificity and the capacity of these markers to differentiate patients with suspected AD from healthy controls and individuals believed to be suffering from other neurodegenerative conditions, have been indicated. These findings are discussed in relation to existing hypotheses on the pathogenesis of the AD and the current drug development pipeline. Many uncertainties remain in relation to the pathogenesis of AD, in diagnosing and treating the disease and many of the studies carried out to identify disease markers are at an early stage and will require confirmation through larger and longer investigations. Nevertheless, significant advances in the identification of AD biomarkers have now been made. Moreover, whilst much of the research on AD biomarkers has focused on amyloid and tau related species, it is evident that a substantial number of other species may provide important opportunities.Purpose of Report: To provide a comprehensive review of important and recently discovered candidate biomarkers of AD, in particular those with potential to reliably detect the disease or with utility in clinical development, drug repurposing, in studies of the pathogenesis and in monitoring drug response and the course of the disease. Other key goals were to identify markers that support current pipeline developments, indicate new potential drug targets or which advance understanding of the pathogenesis of this disease.Drug Repurposing: Studies of the pathogenesis of AD have identified aberrant changes in a number of other disease areas including inflammation, diabetes, oxidative stress, lipid metabolism and others. These findings have prompted studies to evaluate some existing approved drugs to treat AD. This report identifies studies of 9 established drug classes currently being investigated for potential repurposing.Alzheimer’s Disease: In 2005, the global prevalence of dementia was estimated at 25 million, with more than 4 million new cases occurring each year. It is also calculated that the number of people affected will double every 20 years, to 80 million by 2040, if a cure is not found. More than 50% of dementia cases are due to AD. Today, approximately 5 million individuals in the US suffer from AD, representing one in eight people over the age of 65. Direct and indirect costs of AD and other forms of dementia in the US are around $150 billion annually. Worldwide, costs for dementia care are estimated at $315 billion annually. Despite significant research into this debilitating and ultimately fatal disease, advances in the development of diagnostic tests for AD and moreover, effective treatments, remain elusive.Background: Alzheimer's disease is the most common cause of dementia, yet its clinical diagnosis remains uncertain until an eventual post-mortem histopathology examination is carried out. Currently, therapy for patients with Alzheimer disease only treats the symptoms; however, it is anticipated that new disease-modifying drugs will soon become available. The urgency for new and effective treatments for AD is matched by the need for new tests to detect and diagnose the condition. Uncertainties in the diagnosis of AD mean that the disease is often undiagnosed and under treated. Moreover, it is clear that clinical confirmation of AD, using cognitive tests, can only be made after substantial neuronal cell loss has occurred; a process that may have taken place over many years. Poor response to current therapies may therefore, in part, reflect the fact that such treatments are generally commenced only after neuronal damage has occurred. The absence of tests to detect or diagnose presymptomatic AD also means that there is no standard that can be applied to validate experimental findings (e.g. in drug discovery) without performing lengthy studies, and eventual confirmation by autopsy.These limitations are focusing considerable effort on the identification of biomarkers that advance understanding of the pathogenesis of AD and how the disease can be diagnosed in its early stages and treated. It is hoped that developments in these areas will help physicians to detect AD and guide therapy before the first signs of neuronal damage appears. The last 5-10 years have seen substantial research into the pathogenesis of AD and this has lead to the identification of a substantial number of AD biomarkers, which offer important insights into this disease. This report brings together the latest advances in the identification of AD biomarkers and analyses the opportunities they offer in drug R&D and diagnostics.��

TNF-alpha-dependent loss of IKKbeta-deficient myeloid progenitors triggers a cytokine loop culminating in granulocytosis.

Loss of IκB kinase (IKK) β-dependent NF-κB signaling in hematopoietic cells is associated with increased granulopoiesis. Here we identify a regulatory cytokine loop that causes neutrophilia in Ikkβ-deficient mice. TNF-α-dependent apoptosis of myeloid progenitor cells leads to the release of IL-1β, which promotes Th17 polarization of peripheral CD4(+) T cells. Although the elevation of IL-17 and the consecutive induction of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor compensate for the loss of myeloid progenitor cells, the facilitated induction of Th17 cells renders Ikkβ-deficient animals more susceptible to the development of experimental autoimmune encephalitis. These results unravel so far unanticipated direct and indirect functions for IKKβ in myeloid progenitor survival and maintenance of innate and Th17 immunity and raise concerns about long-term IKKβ inhibition in IL-17-mediated diseases.

Cuestiones de pintura y miniatura en Cerdeña: modelos, intercambios y relaciones internacionales en la segunda mitad del siglo XV

Durante el siglo XV Cerdeña desempeña, gracias a su posicionamiento geográfico en el centro del Mediterráneo, un papel muy importante en la red de comercio internacional. Este movimiento económico-cultural fomenta una extensa producción artística que está caracterizada por depender fuertemente de la presencia en la isla de talleres y artistas catalanes. Al día de hoy se conoce muy poco la presencia y las características de la pintura del gótico tardío en la Cerdeña. Las dificultades encontradas por los investigadores en la reconstrucción de la historia del arte sarda de esta época son numerosas y difíciles de solucionar. El problema depende de la falta de fuentes documentales (directas e indirectas), de la gran dispersión de muchísimas obras, de la inaccesibilidad de unas de las obras más interesantes; del desplazamiento casi total de las obras de su sitio original, y del total anonimato de la mayoría de los artistas. En estas condiciones la única solución para alcanzar nuevos elementos científicos es: integrar los conocimientos procedente de las fuentes documentales; ampliar la practica metodológica (multidisciplinariedad), conectar el tejido sardo (pintura, miniatura, grabados) con el ámbito internacional. El objetivo final es introducir la pintura sarda en un contexto más amplio, para poder descubrir el sistema de modelos y de relaciones artísticas, que la conectan con el mundo artístico mediterráneo. El trabajo de este primer año ha sido particularmente intenso y complicado por las dificultades encontradas en ponerse en un tema tan vasto como lo de la pintura y los modelos figurativos de la segunda mitad del siglo XV. Principales objetivos: averiguar toda la bibliografía conocida sobre el tema e intentar ampliar los estudios cada vez que se encontraban indicios sobre posibles autores y obras sardas; empezar el trabajo de catalogación de las obras pictóricas (conocidas o recien descubiertas.)

Assessing the viability of power-supply systems: a tentative protocol

This Technical Report presents a tentative protocol used to assess the viability of powersupply systems. The viability of power-supply systems can be assessed by looking at the production factors (e.g. paid labor, power capacity, fossil-fuels) – needed for the system to operate and maintain itself – in relation to the internal constraints set by the energetic metabolism of societies. In fact, by using this protocol it becomes possible to link assessments of technical coefficients performed at the level of the power-supply systems with assessments of benchmark values performed at the societal level throughout the relevant different sectors. In particular, the example provided here in the case of France for the year 2009 makes it possible to see that in fact nuclear energy is not viable in terms of labor requirements (both direct and indirect inputs) as well as in terms of requirements of power capacity, especially when including reprocessing operations.

Cost-effectiveness of full-course oral levofloxacin in severe community-acquired pneumonia.

Oral levofloxacin is as efficient as sequential antibiotic treatment in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). The current authors assessed whether oral levofloxacin treatment of patients with severe CAP, followed-up for 30 days, would save money. Over a 12-month period, 129 hospitalised patients with severe non-intensive care unit CAP were randomly assigned to receive either oral levofloxacin or sequential antibiotic treatment. Direct and indirect costs were compared over a 30-day period from several perspectives. CAP resolved in 71 out of 77 oral levofloxacin (92%) and in 34 out of 37 sequential antibiotic treatment patients (92%). Patients' characteristics, treatment duration, hospital length of stay and mortality were similar in both groups. Drug acquisition costs were 1.7-times smaller in oral levofloxacin patients, who were less often transferred to rehabilitation centres, but they used more physicians' visits during follow-up and their total costs were lower. As only a minority of patients was still active, inability to work and, hence, indirect costs were similar in both groups. In this study, oral levofloxacin for severe non-intensive care unit community-acquired pneumonia was equally effective as sequential antibiotic treatment, but did not lead to major costs savings except for drug acquisition costs. External factors linked with patients' characteristics and/or medical practice are likely to play a role and should be addressed.

El riesgo de depredación y la competencia intraespecífica alteran el comportamiento de dispersión de semillas por parte de roedores

Los roedores tienen un importante papel como dispersores/depredadores de bellotas en los bosques Mediterráneos de Quercus spp. Existe abundante información del efecto de factores intrínsecos de las semillas (tamaño, composición) en la selección de las bellotas por estos animales, mientras que la influencia de otros procesos como el riesgo de depredación o la competencia intraespecífica han estado mucho menos estudiados. En un bosque mixto de encina y roble en el Parque Natural de Collserola, se ha investigado el patrón de dispersión/depredación de bellotas por parte del ratón de campo (Apodemus sylvaticus) en función del riesgo de depredación por parte de jineta (Genetta genetta) y la competencia intraespecífica (mediante un experimento en el que estos factores se simulaban a partir de olores). Un censo previo determinó que la población de roedores presente en el área de estudio estaba formada principalmente por Apodemys sylvaticus. Éstos respondieron al tratamiento de olor pues se observó un retraso significativo en la manipulación de bellotas de jineta respecto a los otros dos tratamientos. Asimismo, respecto a la distancia de dispersión se observó que las bellotas del tratamiento con olor a ratón eran dispersadas a menor distancia, a una distancia intermedia las de jineta y a mayor distancia las del tratamiento control. En todos los tratamientos, las bellotas dispersadas a zonas de microhábitat abierto fueron menos depredadas. Este trabajo sugiere que el patrón espacio temporal de dipersión/depredación de bellotas en bosques de encina y roble puede tener una elevada complejidad, a la vez que subraya el interés de mantener la integridad de las redes tróficas por sus efectos directos e indirectos sobre las poblaciones de organismos situados a diferentes niveles.

Cuestiones controvertidas en evaluación económica (II): medidas de resultado en salud de las intervenciones sanitarias

In this second article of a series of three, we will discuss using the Metaplan technique on controversial issues of health outcomes in economic evaluation of health care interventions. The four-discussion areas focus on: choice of health outcomes measures, where any outcome measure is superior to another; extrapolation and transferability of health outcomes measures, which should not be assumed the results of an EEIS of one country to another without making certain adjustments; appropriate instruments to measure quality of life in Spain, where the EQ-5D was indicated as convenient due to its widespread international use; and, indirect comparisons, where the combination of both comparisons, direct and indirect, it would be advisable if the test for indirect estimates is consistent and has been validated. Finally, research lines to try to overcome the identified discrepancies were identified in each of these areas, some of those are: doing studies of correlation between scores of specific and generic instruments measuring quality of life; update or create a database of economic evaluations in Spain; estimating utilities for the Spanish population by existing generic and specific instruments; or, establish a common way to show the results of a meta-analysis network.