Subantarctic Macquarie Island - a model ecosystem for studying animal-derived nitrogen sources using N-15 natural abundance

Plants collected from diverse sites on subantarctic Macquarie Island varied by up to 30 parts per thousand in their leaf delta(15)N values. N-15 natural abundance of plants, soils, animal excrement and atmospheric ammonia suggest that the majority of nitrogen utilised by plants growing in the vicinity of animal colonies or burrows is animal-derived. Plants growing near scavengers and animal higher in the food chain had highly enriched delta(15)N values (mean = 12.9 parts per thousand), reflecting the highly enriched signature of these animals' excrement, while plants growing near nesting penguins and albatross, which have an intermediate food chain position, had less enriched delta(15)N values (> 6 parts per thousand). Vegetation in areas affected by rabbits had lower delta(15)N values (mean = 1.2 parts per thousand), while the highly depleted delta(15)N values (below -5 parts per thousand) of plants at upland plateau sites inland of penguin colonies, suggested that a portion of their nitrogen is derived from ammonia (mean N-15 = -10 parts per thousand) lost during the degradation of penguin guano. Vegetation in a remote area had delta(15)N values near -2 parts per thousand. These results contrast with arctic and subarctic studies that attribute large variations in plant N-15 values to nitrogen partitioning in nitrogen-limited environments. Here, plant N-15 reflects the N-15 Of the likely nitrogen sources utilised by plants.

A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Estimating the cost of contact for non-resident parents: A budget standards approach

Most Western countries have, for some time, provided income support and/or taxation relief to parents with children in their care. The significant amount of research into the costs of children to couple and sole parent households has been important in assessing and developing family support policies. Changing societal expectations about the level of involvement of fathers in child rearing activities has highlighted the need to understand the costs facing usually male non-resident parents in having contact with their children. The budget standards methodology is used in this paper to estimate the costs for non-resident parents exercising regular contact with their children. Costs of contact are found to be high. For contact with one child for 20 per cent of the year, costs of contact represent about 40 per cent of the costs of that same child in an intact couple household with a medium income and more than half of the costs of that child in a household with low income. Household infrastructure and transportation is the reason for high costs. One implication of this finding is that the total cost of children substantially increases when parents separate. The article discusses some policy implications of these findings. This research is of relevance to social security, taxation, family law and child support policies and administration.

An analysis of US greenhouse gas cap-and-trade proposals using a forward-looking economic model

We develop a forward-looking version of the recursive dynamic MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and apply it to examine the economic implications of proposals in the US Congress to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that shocks in the consumption path are smoothed out in the forward-looking model and that the lifetime welfare cost of GHG policy is lower than in the recursive model, since the forward-looking model can fully optimize over time. The forward-looking model allows us to explore issues for which it is uniquely well suited, including revenue-recycling and early action crediting. We find capital tax recycling to be more welfare-cost reducing than labor tax recycling because of its long-term effect on economic growth. Also, there are substantial incentives for early action credits; however, when spread over the full horizon of the policy they do not have a substantial effect on lifetime welfare costs.

Assessing cost-effectiveness in mental health: family interventions for schizophrenia and related conditions

Objective: Existing evidence suggests that family interventions can be effective in reducing relapse rates in schizophrenia and related conditions. Despite this, such interventions are not routinely delivered in Australian mental health services. The objective of the current study is to investigate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of introducing three types of family interventions, namely: behavioural family management (BFM); behavioural intervention for families (BIF); and multiple family groups (MFG) into current mental health services in Australia. Method: The ICER of each of the family interventions is assessed from a health sector perspective, including the government, persons with schizophrenia and their families/carers using a standardized methodology. A two-stage approach is taken to the assessment of benefit. The first stage involves a quantitative analysis based on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. The second stage involves application of 'second filter' criteria (including equity, strength of evidence, feasibility and acceptability to stakeholders) to results. The robustness of results is tested using multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: The most cost-effective intervention, in order of magnitude, is BIF (A$8000 per DALY averted), followed by MFG (A$21 000 per DALY averted) and lastly BFM (A$28 000 per DALY averted). The inclusion of time costs makes BFM more cost-effective than MFG. Variation of discount rate has no effect on conclusions. Conclusions: All three interventions are considered 'value-for-money' within an Australian context. This conclusion needs to be tempered against the methodological challenge of converting clinical outcomes into a generic economic outcome measure (DALY). Issues surrounding the feasibility of routinely implementing such interventions need to be addressed.

Assessing cost-effectiveness - Mental health: introduction to the study and methods

Objective: The Assessing Cost-Effectiveness - Mental Health (ACE-MH) study aims to assess from a health sector perspective, whether there are options for change that could improve the effectiveness and efficiency of Australia's current mental health services by directing available resources toward 'best practice' cost-effective services. Method: The use of standardized evaluation methods addresses the reservations expressed by many economists about the simplistic use of League Tables based on economic studies confounded by differences in methods, context and setting. The cost-effectiveness ratio for each intervention is calculated using economic and epidemiological data. This includes systematic reviews and randomised controlled trials for efficacy, the Australian Surveys of Mental Health and Wellbeing for current practice and a combination of trials and longitudinal studies for adherence. The cost-effectiveness ratios are presented as cost (A$) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) saved with a 95% uncertainty interval based on Monte Carlo simulation modelling. An assessment of interventions on 'second filter' criteria ('equity', 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') allows broader concepts of 'benefit' to be taken into account, as well as factors that might influence policy judgements in addition to cost-effectiveness ratios. Conclusions: The main limitation of the study is in the translation of the effect size from trials into a change in the DALY disability weight, which required the use of newly developed methods. While comparisons within disorders are valid, comparisons across disorders should be made with caution. A series of articles is planned to present the results.

Cost-effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors for major depression in children and adolescents

Objective: To assess from a health sector perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) for the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD) in children and adolescents, compared to 'current practice'. Method: The health benefit is measured as a reduction in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), based on effect size calculations from meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. An assessment on second stage filter criteria ('equity'; 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Costs and benefits are tracked for the duration of a new episode of MDD arising in eligible children (age 6-17 years) in the Australian population in the year 2000. Simulation-modelling techniques are used to present a 95% uncertainty interval (UI) around the cost-effectiveness ratios. Results: Compared to current practice, CBT by public psychologists is the most cost-effective intervention for MDD in children and adolescents at A$9000 per DALY saved (95% UI A$3900 to A$24 000). SSRIs and CBT by other providers are less cost-effective but likely to be less than A$50 000 per DALY saved (> 80% chance). CBT is more effective than SSRIs in children and adolescents, resulting in a greater total health benefit (DALYs saved) than could be achieved with SSRIs. Issues that require attention for the CBT intervention include equity concerns, ensuring an adequate workforce, funding arrangements and acceptability to various stakeholders. Conclusions: Cognitive behavioural therapy provided by a public psychologist is the most effective and cost-effective option for the first-line treatment of MDD in children and adolescents. However, this option is not currently accessible by all patients and will require change in policy to allow more widespread uptake. It will also require 'start-up' costs and attention to ensuring an adequate workforce.

Cost-effectiveness of dexamphetamine and methylphenidate for the treatment of childhood attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

Objective: To analyze from a health sector perspective the cost-effectiveness of dexamphetamine (DEX) and methylphenidate (MPH) interventions to treat childhood attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), compared to current practice. Method: Children eligible for the interventions are those aged between 4 and 17 years in 2000, who had ADHD and were seeking care for emotional or behavioural problems, but were not receiving stimulant medication. To determine health benefit, a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials was performed for DEX and MPH, and the effect sizes were translated into utility values. An assessment on second stage filter criteria ('equity', 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Simulation modelling techniques are used to present a 95% uncertainty interval (UI) around the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), which is calculated in cost (in A$) per DALY averted. Results: The ICER for DEX is A$4100/DALY saved (95% UI: negative to A$14 000) and for MPH is A$15 000/DALY saved (95% UI: A$9100-22 000). DEX is more costly than MPH for the government, but much less costly for the patient. Conclusions: MPH and DEX are cost-effective interventions for childhood ADHD. DEX is more cost-effective than MPH, although if MPH were listed at a lower price on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme it would become more cost-effective. Increased uptake of stimulants for ADHD would require policy change. However, the medication of children and wider availability of stimulants may concern parents and the community.

Cost effectiveness of adding magnetic resonance imaging to the usual management of suspected scaphoid fractures

Objective: To determine the cost effectiveness of a magnetic resonance imaging scan (MRI) within 5 days of injury compared with the usual management of occult scaphoid fracture. Methods: All patients with suspected scaphoid fractures in five hospitals were invited to participate in a randomised controlled trial of usual treatment with or without an MRI scan. Healthcare costs were compared, and a cost effectiveness analysis of the use of MRI in this scenario was performed. Results: Twenty eight of the 37 patients identified were randomised: 17 in the control group, 11 in the MRI group. The groups were similar at baseline and follow up in terms of number of scaphoid fractures, other injuries, pain, and function. Of the patients without fracture, the MRI group had significantly fewer days immobilised: a median of 3.0 (interquartile range 3.0-3.0) v 10.0 (7-12) in the control group (p = 0.006). The MRI group used fewer healthcare units (median 3.0, interquartile range 2.0-4.25) than the control group (5.0, 3.0-6.5) (p = 0.03 for the difference). However, the median cost of health care in the MRI group ($594.35 AUD, $551.35-667.23) was slightly higher than in the control group ($428.15, $124.40-702.65) (p = 0.19 for the difference). The mean incremental cost effectiveness ratio derived from this simulation was that MRI costs $44.37 per day saved from unnecessary immobilisation (95% confidence interval $4.29 to $101.02). An illustrative willingness to pay was calculated using a combination of the trials measure of the subjects' individual productivity losses and the average daily earnings. Conclusions: Use of MRI in the management of occult scaphoid fracture reduces the number of days of unnecessary immobilisation and use of healthcare units. Healthcare costs increased non-significantly in relation to the use of MRI in this setting. However, when productivity losses are considered, MRI may be considered cost effective, depending on the individual case.

Ferromagnetism, paramagnetism, and a Curie-Weiss metal in an electron-doped Hubbard model on a triangular lattice

Motivated by the unconventional properties and rich phase diagram of NaxCoO2 we consider the electronic and magnetic properties of a two-dimensional Hubbard model on an isotropic triangular lattice doped with electrons away from half-filling. Dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT) calculations predict that for negative intersite hopping amplitudes (t < 0) and an on-site Coulomb repulsion, U, comparable to the bandwidth, the system displays properties typical of a weakly correlated metal. In contrast, for t > 0 a large enhancement of the effective mass, itinerant ferromagnetism, and a metallic phase with a Curie-Weiss magnetic susceptibility are found in a broad electron doping range. The different behavior encountered is a consequence of the larger noninteracting density of states (DOS) at the Fermi level for t > 0 than for t < 0, which effectively enhances the mass and the scattering amplitude of the quasiparticles. The shape of the DOS is crucial for the occurrence of ferromagnetism as for t > 0 the energy cost of polarizing the system is much smaller than for t < 0. Our observation of Nagaoka ferromagnetism is consistent with the A-type antiferromagnetism (i.e., ferromagnetic layers stacked antiferromagnetically) observed in neutron scattering experiments on NaxCoO2. The transport and magnetic properties measured in NaxCoO2 are consistent with DMFT predictions of a metal close to the Mott insulator and we discuss the role of Na ordering in driving the system towards the Mott transition. We propose that the Curie-Weiss metal phase observed in NaxCoO2 is a consequence of the crossover from a bad metal with incoherent quasiparticles at temperatures T > T-* and Fermi liquid behavior with enhanced parameters below T-*, where T-* is a low energy coherence scale induced by strong local Coulomb electron correlations. Our analysis also shows that the one band Hubbard model on a triangular lattice is not enough to describe the unusual properties of NaxCoO2 and is used to identify the simplest relevant model that captures the essential physics in NaxCoO2. We propose a model which allows for the Na ordering phenomena observed in the system which, we propose, drives the system close to the Mott insulating phase even at large dopings.

Combined glucosamine and chondroitin sulfate provides functional and structural benefit in the anterior cruciate ligament transection model

Evidence that combined glucosamine sulfate and chondroitin sulfate (Gluchon) or isolated glucosamine (Glu) modifies joint damage in osteoarthritis (OA) is still lacking. We studied joint pain and cartilage damage using the anterior cruciate ligament transection (ACLT) model. Wistar rats were subjected to ACLT of the right knee ( OA) or sham operation. Groups received either Glu (500 mg/kg), Gluchon (500 mg/kg glucosamine +400 mg/kg chondroitin) or vehicle (non-treated-NT) per os starting 7 days prior to ACLT until sacrifice at 70 days. Joint pain was evaluated daily using the rat-knee joint articular incapacitation test. Structural joint damage was assessed using histology and biochemistry as the chondroitin sulfate ( CS) content of cartilage by densitometry (microgram per milligram dried cartilage), comparing to standard CS. The molar weight (Mw) of the CS samples, used as a qualitative biochemical parameter, was obtained by comparing their relative mobility on a polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis to standard CS. Gluchon, but not Glu, significantly reduced joint pain (P<0.05) compared to NT. There was an increase in CS content in the OA group (77.7 +/- 8.3 mu g/mg) compared to sham (53.5 +/- 11.2 mu g/mg) (P<0.05). The CS from OA samples had higher Mw (4:62 +/- 0:24 x 10(4) g/mol) compared to sham (4:18 +/- 0:19 x 10(4) g/mol) (P<0.05). Gluchon administration significantly reversed both the increases in CS content (54.4 +/- 12.1 mu g/mg) and Mw (4:18 +/- 0:2 x 104 g/mol) as compared to NT. Isolated Glu decreased CS content though not reaching statistical significance. Cartilage histology alterations were also significantly prevented by Gluchon administration. Gluchon provides clinical (analgesia) and structural benefits in the ACLT model. This is the first demonstration that biochemical alterations occurring in parallel to histological damage in OA are prevented by Gluchon administration.

Cost analysis of drug therapy in rheumatoid arthritis

With the aim to compare the cost of treatment for rheumatoid arthritis therapy with desease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDS) for a 48-month period, were studied five different treatment stage based on clinical protocols recommended by the Brazilian Society of Rheumatology, and then five therapy cycles. The analytical model based on the Markov Analysis, considered chaces for the patient continue in some stages or change between them according with a positive effect on outcomes. Only direct costs were comprised in the analyzed data, like drugs, materials and tests used for monitoring these patients. The results of the model show that the stage in with metotrexato drug is used like monotherapy was cost-effective (R$ 113,900,00 for patient during 48 months), followed by refractory patient (R$ 1,554,483,43), those that use therapy triplicate followed by infleximable drug (R$ 1, 701, 286.76), the metotrexato intolearant patient (R$ 2,629,919,14), and final the result from that use metotrexato and infliximable in the beginning (R$ 9,292,879,31). The sensitivity analysis confirm this results, when alternate the efficacy of metotrexato and infliximabe.

Isolated limb perfusion with melphalan for human melanoma xenografts in the hindlimb of nude rats: A surviving animal model

We have established a surviving model of isolated limb perfusion using xenografts of the human melanoma cell line MM 96L injected subcutaneously into the hindlimb of a nude rat, The femoral artery and vein were cannulated via the left renal artery and vein and the hind limb was isolated using tourniquets. The limb was perfused with Krebs Heinseleit buffer at 37 degrees C containing 4.7% bovine serum albumin at a constant flow rate of 4 mi per min for 30-60 min with 100% survival of the animals, Tumour vascularization and blood flow were demonstrated using vascular casts and [Cr-51]-microspheres. Following the addition of melphalan (15 or 100 mu g/ml), drug concentrations in the perfusate, tissues and systemic circulation were determined using high pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC), Systemic leakage, assessed using [I-125]albumin and melphalan and detected by a gamma-counter and HPLC respectively, was <0.5%. The melphalan concentration and tissue flow rate in the tumour deposits were 40 and 30% respectively, when compared with the surrounding subcutaneous tissue, At a dose of 15 mu g/ml, melphalan caused a reduction in tumour growth after 60 min perfusion, and a significant reduction in tumour size was seen when the melphalan dose was 100 mu g/ml. The surviving nude rat model of isolated limb perfusion for recurrent melanoma will allow examination of optimal perfusion conditions, along with the pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and efficacy of melphalan and other drugs.

Derivation and external validation of a simple prediction model for the diagnosis of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in the Brazilian urban population

A risk score model was developed based in a population of 1,224 individuals from the general population without known diabetes aging 35 years or more from an urban Brazilian population sample in order to select individuals who should be screened in subsequent testing and improve the efficacy of public health assurance. External validation was performed in a second, independent, population from a different city ascertained through a similar epidemiological protocol. The risk score was developed by multiple logistic regression and model performance and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. Model`s capacity of predicting fasting blood glucose levels was tested analyzing data from a 5-year follow-up protocol conducted in the general population. Items independently and significantly associated with diabetes were age, BMI and known hypertension. Sensitivity, specificity and proportion of further testing necessary for the best cutoff value were 75.9, 66.9 and 37.2%, respectively. External validation confirmed the model`s adequacy (AUC equal to 0.72). Finally, model score was also capable of predicting fasting blood glucose progression in non-diabetic individuals in a 5-year follow-up period. In conclusion, this simple diabetes risk score was able to identify individuals with an increased likelihood of having diabetes and it can be used to stratify subpopulations in which performing of subsequent tests is necessary and probably cost-effective.

Aerobic training reverses airway inflammation and remodelling in an asthma murine model

Aerobic training (AT) decreases dyspnoea and exercise-induced bronchospasm, and improves aerobic capacity and quality of life; however, the mechanisms for such benefits remain poorly understood. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the AT effects in a chronic model of allergic lung inflammation in mice after the establishment of airway inflammation and remodelling. Mice were divided into the control group, AT group, ovalbumin (OVA) group or OVA+AT group and exposed to saline or OVA. AT was started on day 28 for 60 min five times per week for 4 weeks. Respiratory mechanics, specific immunoglobulin (Ig)E and IgG(1), collagen and elastic fibres deposition, smooth muscle thickness, epithelial mucus, and peribronchial density of eosinophils, CD3+ and CD4+, IL-4, IL-5, IL-13, interferon-gamma, IL-2, IL-1ra, IL-10, nuclear factor (NF)-kappa B and Foxp3 were evaluated. The OVA group showed an increase in IgE and IgG1, eosinophils, CD3+, CD4+, IL-4, IL-5, IL-13, NF-kappa B, collagen and elastic, mucus synthesis, smooth muscle thickness and lung tissue resistance and elastance. The OVA+AT group demonstrated an increase of IgE and IgG(1), and reduction of eosinophils, CD3+, CD4+, IL-4, IL-5, IL-13, NF-kappa B, airway remodelling, mucus synthesis, smooth muscle thickness and tissue resistance and elastance compared with the OVA roup (p < 0.05). The OVA+AT group also showed an increase in IL-10 and IL-1ra (p < 0.05), independently of Foxp3. AT reversed airway inflammation and remodelling and T-helper cell 2 response, and improved respiratory mechanics. These results seem to occur due to an increase in the expression of IL-10 and IL-1ra and a decrease of NF-kappa B.