A 27 day persistence model of near-Earth solar wind conditions: a long lead-time forecast and a benchmark for dynamical models

Geomagnetic activity has long been known to exhibit approximately 27 day periodicity, resulting from solar wind structures repeating each solar rotation. Thus a very simple near-Earth solar wind forecast is 27 day persistence, wherein the near-Earth solar wind conditions today are assumed to be identical to those 27 days previously. Effective use of such a persistence model as a forecast tool, however, requires the performance and uncertainty to be fully characterized. The first half of this study determines which solar wind parameters can be reliably forecast by persistence and how the forecast skill varies with the solar cycle. The second half of the study shows how persistence can provide a useful benchmark for more sophisticated forecast schemes, namely physics-based numerical models. Point-by-point assessment methods, such as correlation and mean-square error, find persistence skill comparable to numerical models during solar minimum, despite the 27 day lead time of persistence forecasts, versus 2–5 days for numerical schemes. At solar maximum, however, the dynamic nature of the corona means 27 day persistence is no longer a good approximation and skill scores suggest persistence is out-performed by numerical models for almost all solar wind parameters. But point-by-point assessment techniques are not always a reliable indicator of usefulness as a forecast tool. An event-based assessment method, which focusses key solar wind structures, finds persistence to be the most valuable forecast throughout the solar cycle. This reiterates the fact that the means of assessing the “best” forecast model must be specifically tailored to its intended use.

Prebiotic feeding elevates central brain derived neurotrophic factor, N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor subunits and D-serine

The influence of the gut microbiota on brain chemistry has been convincingly demonstrated in rodents. In the absence of gut bacteria, the central expression of brain derived neurotropic factor, (BDNF), and N-methyl-d-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) subunits are reduced, whereas, oral probiotics increase brain BDNF, and impart significant anxiolytic effects. We tested whether prebiotic compounds, which increase intrinsic enteric microbiota, also affected brain BDNF and NMDARs. In addition, we examined whether plasma from prebiotic treated rats released BDNF from human SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma cells, to provide an initial indication of mechanism of action. Rats were gavaged with fructo-oligosaccharides (FOS), galacto-oligosaccharides (GOS) or water for five weeks, prior to measurements of brain BDNF, NMDAR subunits and amino acids associated with glutamate neurotransmission (glutamate, glutamine, and serine and alanine enantiomers). Prebiotics increased hippocampal BDNF and NR1 subunit expression relative to controls. The intake of GOS also increased hippocampal NR2A subunits, and frontal cortex NR1 and d-serine. Prebiotics did not alter glutamate, glutamine, l-serine, l-alanine or d-alanine concentrations in the brain, though GOSfeeding raised plasma d-alanine. Elevated levels of plasma peptide YY (PYY) after GOS intake was observed. Plasma from GOS rats increased the release of BDNF from SH-SY5Y cells, but not in the presence of PYY antisera. The addition of synthetic PYY to SH-SY5Y cell cultures, also elevated BDNF secretion. We conclude that prebiotic-mediated proliferation of gut microbiota in rats, like probiotics, increases brain BDNF expression, possibly through the involvement of gut hormones. The effect of GOS on components of central NMDAR signalling was greater than FOS, and may reflect the proliferative potency of GOS on microbiota. Our data therefore, provide a sound basis to further investigate the utility of prebiotics in the maintenance of brain health and adjunctive treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders.

Twenty-three cycles of changing open solar magnetic flux

This paper presents a comparison of various estimates of the open solar flux, deduced from measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field, from the aa geomagnetic index and from photospheric magnetic field observations. The first two of these estimates are made using the Ulysses discovery that the radial heliospheric field is approximately independent of heliographic latitude, the third makes use of the potential-field source surface method to map the total flux through the photosphere to the open flux at the top of the corona. The uncertainties associated with using the Ulysses result are 5%, but the effects of the assumptions of the potential field source surface method are harder to evaluate. Nevertheless, the three methods give similar results for the last three solar cycles when the data sets overlap. In 11-year running means, all three methods reveal that 1987 marked a significant peak in the long-term variation of the open solar flux. This peak is close to the solar minimum between sunspot cycles 21 and 22, and consequently the mean open flux (averaged from minimum to minimum) is similar for these two cycles. However, this similarity between cycles 21 and 22 in no way implies that the open flux is constant. The long-term variation shows that these cycles are fundamentally different in that the average open flux was rising during cycle 21 (from consistently lower values in cycle 20 and toward the peak in 1987) but was falling during cycle 22 (toward consistently lower values in cycle 23). The estimates from the geomagnetic aa index are unique as they extend from 1842 onwards (using the Helsinki extension). This variation gives strong anticorrelations, with very high statistical significance levels, with cosmic ray fluxes and with the abundances of the cosmogenic isotopes that they produce. Thus observations of photospheric magnetic fields, of cosmic ray fluxes, and of cosmogenic isotope abundances all support the long-term drifts in open solar flux reported by Lockwood et al. [1999a, 1999b].

Ionospheric measurements of relative coronal brightness during the total solar eclipses of 11 August, 1999 and 9 July, 1945

Swept-frequency (1-10 MHz) ionosonde measurements were made at Helston, Cornwall (50 degrees 06'N, 5 degrees 18'W) during the total solar eclipse on August 11, 1999. Soundings were made every three minutes. We present a method for estimating the percentage of the ionising solar radiation which remains unobscured at any time during the eclipse by comparing the variation of the ionospheric E-layer with the behaviour of the layer during a control day. Application to the ionosonde date for II August, 1999, shows that the flux of solar ionising radiation fell to a minimum of 25 +/- 2% of the value before and after the eclipse. For comparison, the same technique was also applied to measurements made during the total solar eclipse of 9 July, 1945, at Sormjole (63 degrees 68'N, 20 degrees 20'E) and yielded a corresponding minimum of 16 +/- 2%. Therefore the method can detect variations in the fraction of solar emissions that originate from the unobscured corona and chromosphere. We discuss the differences between these two eclipses in terms of the nature of the eclipse, short-term fluctuations, the sunspot cycle and the recently-discovered long-term change in the coronal magnetic field.

The impact of date palm fruits and their component polyphenols, on gut microbial ecology, bacterial metabolites and colon cancer cell proliferation

The fruit of the date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) is a rich source of dietary fibre and polyphenols. We have investigated gut bacterial changes induced by the whole date fruit extract (digested date extract; DDE) and its polyphenol-rich extract (date polyphenol extract; DPE) using faecal, pH-controlled, mixed batch cultures mimicking the distal part of the human large intestine, and utilising an array of microbial group-specific 16S rRNA oligonucleotide probes. Fluorescence microscopic enumeration indicated that there was a significant increase in the growth of bifidobacteria in response to both treatments, whilst whole dates also increased bacteroides at 24 h and the total bacterial counts at later fermentation time points when compared with DPE alone. Bacterial metabolism of whole date fruit led to the production of SCFA, with acetate significantly increasing following bacterial incubation with DDE. In addition, the production of flavonoid aglycones (myricetin, luteolin, quercetin and apigenin) and the anthocyanidin petunidin in less than 1 h was also observed. Lastly, the potential of DDE, DPE and metabolites to inhibit Caco-2 cell growth was investigated, indicating that both were capable of potentially acting as antiproliferative agents in vitro, following a 48 h exposure. This potential to inhibit growth was reduced following fermentation. Together these data suggest that consumption of date fruits may enhance colon health by increasing beneficial bacterial growth and inhibiting the proliferation of colon cancer cells. This is an early suggestion that date intake by humans may aid in the maintenance of bowel health and even the reduction of colorectal cancer development.

The Maunder minimum (1645-1715) was indeed a grand minimum: a reassessment of multiple datasets

Aims. Although the time of the Maunder minimum (1645–1715) is widely known as a period of extremely low solar activity, it is still being debated whether solar activity during that period might have been moderate or even higher than the current solar cycle (number 24). We have revisited all existing evidence and datasets, both direct and indirect, to assess the level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum. Methods. We discuss the East Asian naked-eye sunspot observations, the telescopic solar observations, the fraction of sunspot active days, the latitudinal extent of sunspot positions, auroral sightings at high latitudes, cosmogenic radionuclide data as well as solar eclipse observations for that period. We also consider peculiar features of the Sun (very strong hemispheric asymmetry of the sunspot location, unusual differential rotation and the lack of the K-corona) that imply a special mode of solar activity during the Maunder minimum. Results. The level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum is reassessed on the basis of all available datasets. Conclusions. We conclude that solar activity was indeed at an exceptionally low level during the Maunder minimum. Although the exact level is still unclear, it was definitely lower than during the Dalton minimum of around 1800 and significantly below that of the current solar cycle #24. Claims of a moderate-to-high level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum are rejected with a high confidence level.

Secoiridoids delivered as olive leaf extract induce acute improvements in human vascular function and reduction of an inflammatory cytokine: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over trial

The leaves of the olive plant (Olea europaea) are rich in polyphenols, of which oleuropein and hydroxytyrosol (HT) are most characteristic. Such polyphenols have been demonstrated to favourably modify a variety of cardiovascular risk factors. The aim of the present intervention was to investigate the influence of olive leaf extract (OLE) on vascular function and inflammation in a postprandial setting and to link physiological outcomes with absorbed phenolics. A randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over, acute intervention trial was conducted with eighteen healthy volunteers (nine male, nine female), who consumed either OLE (51 mg oleuropein; 10mg HT), or a matched control (separated by a 4-week wash out) on a single occasion. Vascular function was measured by digital volume pulse (DVP), while blood collected at baseline, 1, 3 and 6 h was cultured for 24 h in the presence of lipopolysaccharide in order to investigate effects on cytokine production. Urine was analysed for phenolic metabolites by HPLC. DVP-stiffness index and ex vivo IL-8 production were significantly reduced (P < 0.05) after consumption of OLE compared to the control. These effects were accompanied by the excretion of several phenolic metabolites, namely HT and oleuropein derivatives, which peaked in urine after 8-24 h. The present study provides the first evidence that OLE positively modulates vascular function and IL-8 production in vivo, adding to growing evidence that olive phenolics could be beneficial for health.

Influence of pulse repetition rate of Er : YAG laser and dentin depth on tensile bond strength of dentin-resin interface

The study evaluated the in vitro influence of pulse-repetition rate of Er:YAG laser and dentin depth on tensile bond strength of dentin-resin interface. Dentin surfaces of buccal or lingual surfaces from human third molars were submitted to tensile test in different depths (superficial, 1.0 and 1.5 mm) of the same dental area, using the same sample. Surface treatments were acid conditioning solely (control) and Er:YAG laser irradiation (80 mJ) followed by acid conditioning, with different pulse-repetition rates (1, 2, 3, or 4 Hz). Single bond/Z-250 system was used. The samples were stored in distilled water at 37 degrees C for 24 h, and then the first test (superficial dentine) was performed. The bond failures were analyzed. Following, the specimens were identified, grounded until 1.0- and 1.5-mm depths, submitted again to the treatments and to the second and, after that, to third-bond tests on a similar procedure and failure analysis. ANOVA and Tukey test demonstrated a significant difference (p < 0.001) for treatment and treatment X depth interaction (p < 0.05). The tested depths did not show influence (p > 0.05) on the bond strength of dentin-resin interface. It may be concluded that Er:YAG laser with 1, 2, 3, or 4 Hz combined with acid conditioning did not increase the resin tensile bond strength to dentin, regardless of dentin depth. (C) 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

SEM analysis of enamel surface treated by Er : YAG laser: Influence of irradiation distance

Background: Depending on the distance of laser tip to dental surface a specific morphological pattern should be expected. However, there have been limited reports that correlate the Er:YAG irradiation distance with dental morphology. Purpose: To assess the influence of Er:YAG laser irradiation distance on enamel morphology, by means of scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Methods: Sixty human third molars were employed to obtain discs (congruent to 1 mm thick) that were randomly assigned to six groups (n = 10). Five groups received Er:YAG laser irradiation (80 mJ/2 Hz) for 20 s, according to the irradiation distance: 11, 12, 14, 16, or 17 mm. and the control group was treated with 37% phosphoric acid for 15 s. The laser-irradiated discs were bisected. One hemi-disc was separated for superficial analysis without subsequent acid etching, and the other one, received the phosphoric acid for 15 s. Samples were prepared for SEM. Results: Laser irradiation at 11 and 12 min provided an evident ablation of enamel, with evident fissures and some fused areas. At 14, 16 and 17 mm the superficial topography was flatter than in the other distances. The subsequent acid etching on the lased-surface partially removed the disorganized tissue. Conclusions: Er:YAG laser in defocused mode promoted slight morphological alterations and seems more suitable for enamel conditioning than focused irradiation. The application of phosphoric acid on lased-enamel surface, regardless of the irradiation distance, decreased the superficial irregularities.

Influence of energy and pulse repetition rate of Er : YAG laser on enamel ablation ability and morphological analysis of the laser-irradiated surface

Objective: To assess the influence of energy and pulse repetition rate of Er:YAG laser on the enamel ablation ability and substrate morphology. Methods: Fifteen crowns of molars were sectioned in four fragments, providing 60 samples, which were ground to flatten the enamel surface. The initial mass was obtained by weighing the fragments. The specimens were hydrated for I h, fixed, and a 3-mm-diameter area was delimited. Twelve groups were randomly formed according to the combination of laser energies (200, 250, 300, or 350 mJ) and pulse repetition rates (2, 3, or 4 Hz). The final mass was obtained and mass loss was calculated by the difference between the initial and final mass. The specimens were prepared for SEM. Data were submitted to ANOVA and Scheffe test. Results: The 4 Hz frequency resulted in higher mass loss and was statistically different from 2 and 3 Hz (p < 0.05). The increase of frequency produced more melted areas, cracks, and unselective and deeper ablation. The 350 mJ energy promoted greater mass loss, similar to 300 mJ. Conclusions: The pulse repetition rate influenced more intensively the mass loss and morphological alteration. Among the tested parameters, 350 mJ/3 Hz improved the ability of enamel ablation with less surface morphological alterations. (C) 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res.

Bond durability in erbium:yttrium-aluminum-garnet laser-irradiated enamel

This study sought to evaluate the influence of thermocycling and water storage on the microtensile bond strength of composite resin bonded to erbium:yttrium-aluminum-garnet (Er:YAG)-irradiated and bur-prepared enamel. Eighty bovine incisors were selected and sectioned. Specimens were ground to produce a flat enamel surface. Samples were randomly assigned according to cavity preparation device: (I) Er:YAG laser and (II) high-speed turbine, and were subsequently restored with composite resin. They were subdivided according to the duration of water storage (WS)/number of thermocycles (TCs): 24 h WS/no TCs; 7 days WS/500 TCs; 1 month WS/2,000 TCs; 6 months WS/12,000 TCs. The teeth were sectioned into 1.0 mm(2)-thick slabs and subjected to tensile stress in a universal testing machine. Data were submitted to two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Tukey`s test at a 0.05 significance level. The different periods of water storage and thermocycling did not influence the microtensile bond strength (A mu TBS) values in the Er:YAG laser-prepared groups. In bur-prepared enamel, the group submitted to 12,000 TCs/6 months` WS (IID) showed a significant decrease in bond strength values when compared to the group stored in water for 24 h and not submitted to thermocycling (IIA), but values were statistically similar to those obtained in all Er:YAG laser groups and in the bur- prepared groups degraded with 500 TCs/1 week WS (IIB) or 2,000 TCs/1 month WS (IIC). It may be concluded that adhesion of an etch-and-rinse adhesive to Er:YAG laser-irradiated enamel was not affected by the methods used to simulate degradation of the adhesive interface and was similar to adhesion in the bur-prepared groups in all periods of water storage and thermocycling.

Influence of NaHCO(3) Powder on Translucency of Microfilled Composite Resin Immersed in Different Mouthrinses

The regular use of mouthrinses, particularly when combined with the use of air-powder polishing, could affect the appearance of tooth-colored restorations. The current study sought to evaluate the effect of NaHCO(3) powder on translucency of a microfilled composite resin immersed in different mouthrinses, at distinct evaluation periods. Eighty disk-shaped specimens of composite resin (Durafill VS, Heraeus Kulzer GmbH & Co. KG, Hanau, Germany) were prepared. The composite specimens were then randomly allocated into two groups according to the surface treatment: exposure to NaHCO(3) powder (10 seconds) or nonexposure, and they were randomly assigned into four subgroups, according to the mouthrinses employed (N = 10): Periogard (Colgate/Palmolive, Sao Bernardo do Campo, SP, Brazil), Cepacol (Aventis Pharma, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil), Plax (Colgate/Palmolive), and distilled water (control group). The samples were immersed for 2 minutes daily, 5 days per week, over a 4-month test period. Translucency was measured with a transmission densitometer at seven evaluation periods. Statistical analyses (analysis of variance and Tukey`s test) revealed that: distilled water presented higher translucency values (86.72%); Periogard demonstrated the lowest translucency values (72.70%); and Plax (74.05%) and Cepacol (73.32%) showed intermediate translucency values, which were statistically similar between them (p > 0.01). NaHCO(3) air-powder polishing increased the changes in translucency associated with the mouthrinses. Air-powder polishing alone had no effect on material translucency. Translucency percent was gradually decreased from 1 week of immersion up to 4 months. It may be concluded that the NaHCO(3) powder and the tested mouthrinses have affected the translucency of microfilled composite resin, according to the tested time. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE During the last decade, the demand for composite resin restorations has grown considerably, however, controversy persists regarding the effect of surface roughness on color stability.

Influence of water flow rate on shear bond strength of resin composite to Er : YAG cavity preparation

Purpose: To evaluate in vitro the influence of water flow rate on shear bond strength of a resin composite to enamel and dentin after Er:YAG cavity preparation. Methods: Ten bovine incisors were selected and roots removed. Crowns were sectioned in four pieces, resulting in 40 samples that were individually embedded in polyester resin (n=10), and ground to plane the enamel and expose the dentin. The bonding site was delimited and samples were randomly assigned according to cavity preparation: (1) Er:YAG/1.0 mL/minute; (2) Er:YAG/1.5 mL/minute; (3) Er:YAG/2.0 mL/minute and (4) High speed handpiece/bur (control group). Samples were fixed to a metallic device, where composite resin cylinders were prepared. Subsequently, they were stored for 24 hours and subjected to a shear bond strength test (500N at 0.5 mm/minute). Results: Means (MPa) were: enamel: 1: 12.8; 2: 16.8; 3: 17.5; 4: 36.0 and Dentin: 1: 13.6; 2: 18.7; 3: 12.1; 4: 21.3. Data were submitted to ANOVA and Tukey`s test. Adhesion to enamel was more efficient than for dentin. The cavities prepared with conventional bur (control) presented higher statistically significant bond strength values (P<0.05) than for Er:YAG laser for both enamel and dentin. No significant differences were observed between water flow rates employed during enamel ablation. For dentin, the shear bond strength of 2.0 mL/minute water flow rate was lower than for 1.5 mL/minute and 1.0 mL/minute rates. The Er:YAG laser adversely affected shear bond strength of resin composite to both enamel and dentin, regardless of the water flow rate used.

Adhesion to Er : YAG laser-prepared dentin after long-term water storage and thermocycling

This in vitro study evaluated the microtensile bond strength of a resin composite to Er:YAG-prepared dentin after long-term storage and thermocycling. Eighty bovine incisors were selected and their roots removed. The crowns were ground to expose superficial dentin. The samples were randomly divided according to cavity preparation method (I-Er:YAG laser and II-carbide bur). Subsequently, an etch & rinse adhesive system was applied and the samples were restored with a resin composite. The samples were subdivided according to time of water storage (WS)/number of thermocycles (TC) performed: A) 24 hours WS/no TC; B) 7 days WS/500 TC; C) 1 month WS/2,000 TC; D) 6 months WS/12,000 TC. The teeth were sectioned in sticks with a cross-sectional area of 1.0-mm(2), which were loaded in tension in a universal testing machine. The data were subjected to two-way ANOVA, Scheffe and Fisher`s tests at a 5% level. In general, the bur-prepared group displayed higher microtensile bond strength values than the laser-treated group. Based on one-month water storage and 2,000 thermocycles, the performance of the tested adhesive system to Er:YAG-laser irradiated dentin was negatively affected (Group IC), while adhesion of the bur-prepared group decreased only within six months of water storage combined with 12,000 thermocycles (Group IID). It may be concluded that adhesion to the Er:YAG laser cavity preparation was more affected by the methods used for simulating degradation of the adhesive interface.

SURFACE ALFVEN WAVE DAMPING IN A THREE-DIMENSIONAL SIMULATION OF THE SOLAR WIND

Here we investigate the contribution of surface Alfven wave damping to the heating of the solar wind in minima conditions. These waves are present in the regions of strong inhomogeneities in density or magnetic field (e.g., the border between open and closed magnetic field lines). Using a three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model, we calculate the surface Alfven wave damping contribution between 1 and 4 R(circle dot) (solar radii), the region of interest for both acceleration and coronal heating. We consider waves with frequencies lower than those that are damped in the chromosphere and on the order of those dominating the heliosphere: 3 x 10(-6) to 10(-1) Hz. In the region between open and closed field lines, within a few R(circle dot) of the surface, no other major source of damping has been suggested for the low frequency waves we consider here. This work is the first to study surface Alfven waves in a 3D environment without assuming a priori a geometry of field lines or magnetic and density profiles. We demonstrate that projection effects from the plane of the sky to 3D are significant in the calculation of field line expansion. We determine that waves with frequencies >2.8 x 10(-4) Hz are damped between 1 and 4 R(circle dot). In quiet-Sun regions, surface Alfven waves are damped at further distances compared to active regions, thus carrying additional wave energy into the corona. We compare the surface Alfven wave contribution to the heating by a variable polytropic index and find it as an order of magnitude larger than needed for quiet-Sun regions. For active regions, the contribution to the heating is 20%. As it has been argued that a variable gamma acts as turbulence, our results indicate that surface Alfven wave damping is comparable to turbulence in the lower corona. This damping mechanism should be included self-consistently as an energy driver for the wind in global MHD models.