Stability region bifurcations of nonlinear autonomous dynamical systems: Type-zero saddle-node bifurcations

The behavior of stability regions of nonlinear autonomous dynamical systems subjected to parameter variation is studied in this paper. In particular, the behavior of stability regions and stability boundaries when the system undergoes a type-zero sadle-node bifurcation on the stability boundary is investigated in this paper. It is shown that the stability regions suffer drastic changes with parameter variation if type-zero saddle-node bifurcations occur on the stability boundary. A complete characterization of these changes in the neighborhood of a type-zero saddle-node bifurcation value is presented in this paper. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hybrid fault diagnosis scheme implementation for power distribution systems automation

Power distribution automation and control are import-ant tools in the current restructured electricity markets. Unfortunately, due to its stochastic nature, distribution systems faults are hardly avoidable. This paper proposes a novel fault diagnosis scheme for power distribution systems, composed by three different processes: fault detection and classification, fault location, and fault section determination. The fault detection and classification technique is wavelet based. The fault-location technique is impedance based and uses local voltage and current fundamental phasors. The fault section determination method is artificial neural network based and uses the local current and voltage signals to estimate the faulted section. The proposed hybrid scheme was validated through Alternate Transient Program/Electromagentic Transients Program simulations and was implemented as embedded software. It is currently used as a fault diagnosis tool in a Southern Brazilian power distribution company.

Fuzzy risk index for power transformer failures due to external short-circuits

A novel methodology to assess the risk of power transformer failures caused by external faults, such as short-circuit, taking the paper insulation condition into account, is presented. The risk index is obtained by contrasting the insulation paper condition with the probability that the transformer withstands the short-circuit current flowing along the winding during an external fault. In order to assess the risk, this probability and the value of the degree of polymerization of the insulating paper are regarded as inputs of a type-2 fuzzy logic system (T2-FLS), which computes the fuzzy risk level. A Monte Carlo simulation has been used to find the survival function of the currents flowing through the transformer winding during a single-phase or a three-phase short-circuit. The Roy Billinton Test System and a real power system have been used to test the results. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

USE OF SOLAR ENERGY IN THE TREATMENT OF WATER CONTAMINATED WITH PHENOL BY PHOTOCHEMICAL PROCESSES

The solar driven photo-Fenton process for treating water containing phenol as a contaminant has been evaluated by means of pilot-scale experiments with a parabolic trough solar reactor (PTR). The effects of Fe(II) (0.04-1.0 mmol L(-1)), H(2)O(2) (7-270 mmol L(-1)), initial phenol concentration (100 and 500 mg C L(-1)), solar radiation, and operation mode (batch and fed-batch) on the process efficiency were investigated. More than 90% of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was removed within 3 hours of irradiation or less, a performance equivalent to that of artificially-irradiated reactors, indicating that solar light can be used either as an effective complementary or as an alternative source of photons for the photo-Fenton degradation process. A non-linear multivariable model based on a neural network was fit to the experimental results of batch-mode experiments in order to evaluate the relative importance of the process variables considered on the DOC removal over the reaction time. This included solar radiation, which is not a controlled variable. The observed behavior of the system in batch-mode was compared with fed-batch experiments carried out under similar conditions. The main contribution of the study consists of the results from experiments under different conditions and the discussion of the system behavior. Both constitute important information for the design and scale-up of solar radiation-based photodegradation processes.

On Building a Memory Evolutive System for Application to Learning and Cognition Modeling

We address here aspects of the implementation of a memory evolutive system (MES), based on the model proposed by A. Ehresmann and J. Vanbremeersch (2007), by means of a simulated network of spiking neurons with time dependent plasticity. We point out the advantages and challenges of applying category theory for the representation of cognition, by using the MES architecture. Then we discuss the issues concerning the minimum requirements that an artificial neural network (ANN) should fulfill in order that it would be capable of expressing the categories and mappings between them, underlying the MES. We conclude that a pulsed ANN based on Izhikevich`s formal neuron with STDP (spike time-dependent plasticity) has sufficient dynamical properties to achieve these requirements, provided it can cope with the topological requirements. Finally, we present some perspectives of future research concerning the proposed ANN topology.

Recognition of noisy images by PLL networks

We use networks composed of three phase-locked loops (PLLs), where one of them is the master, for recognizing noisy images. The values of the coupling weights among the PLLs control the noise level which does not affect the successful identification of the input image. Analytical results and numerical tests are presented concerning the scheme performance. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Suitability of relative humidity as an estimator of leaf wetness duration

Leaf wetness duration (LWD) is a key parameter in agricultural meteorology since it is related to epidemiology of many important crops, controlling pathogen infection and development rates. Because LWD is not widely measured, several methods have been developed to estimate it from weather data. Among the models used to estimate LWD, those that use physical principles of dew formation and dew and/or rain evaporation have shown good portability and sufficiently accurate results, but their complexity is a disadvantage for operational use. Alternatively, empirical models have been used despite their limitations. The simplest empirical models use only relative humidity data. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of three RH-based empirical models to estimate LWD in four regions around the world that have different climate conditions. Hourly LWD, air temperature, and relative humidity data were obtained from Ames, IA (USA), Elora, Ontario (Canada), Florence, Toscany (Italy), and Piracicaba, Sao Paulo State (Brazil). These data were used to evaluate the performance of the following empirical LWD estimation models: constant RH threshold (RH >= 90%); dew point depression (DPD); and extended RH threshold (EXT_RH). Different performance of the models was observed in the four locations. In Ames, Elora and Piracicaba, the RH >= 90% and DPD models underestimated LWD, whereas in Florence these methods overestimated LWD, especially for shorter wet periods. When the EXT_RH model was used, LWD was overestimated for all locations, with a significant increase in the errors. In general, the RH >= 90% model performed best, presenting the highest general fraction of correct estimates (F(C)), between 0.87 and 0.92, and the lowest false alarm ratio (F(AR)), between 0.02 and 0.31. The use of specific thresholds for each location improved accuracy of the RH model substantially, even when independent data were used; MAE ranged from 1.23 to 1.89 h, which is very similar to errors obtained with published physical models for LWD estimation. Based on these results, we concluded that, if calibrated locally, LWD can be estimated with acceptable accuracy by RH above a specific threshold, and that the EXT_RH method was unsuitable for estimating LWD at the locations used in this study. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Strategies for identifying and predicting islet autoantigen T-cell epitopes in insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus

T cells recognize peptide epitopes bound to major histocompatibility complex molecules. Human T-cell epitopes have diagnostic and therapeutic applications in autoimmune diseases. However, their accurate definition within an autoantigen by T-cell bioassay, usually proliferation, involves many costly peptides and a large amount of blood, We have therefore developed a strategy to predict T-cell epitopes and applied it to tyrosine phosphatase IA-2, an autoantigen in IDDM, and HLA-DR4(*0401). First, the binding of synthetic overlapping peptides encompassing IA-2 was measured directly to purified DR4. Secondly, a large amount of HLA-DR4 binding data were analysed by alignment using a genetic algorithm and were used to train an artificial neural network to predict the affinity of binding. This bioinformatic prediction method was then validated experimentally and used to predict DR4 binding peptides in IA-2. The binding set encompassed 85% of experimentally determined T-cell epitopes. Both the experimental and bioinformatic methods had high negative predictive values, 92% and 95%, indicating that this strategy of combining experimental results with computer modelling should lead to a significant reduction in the amount of blood and the number of peptides required to define T-cell epitopes in humans.

Relationship between peptide selectivities of human transporters associated with antigen processing and HLA class I molecules

Efficiency of presentation of a peptide epitope by a MHC class I molecule depends on two parameters: its binding to the MHC molecule and its generation by intracellular Ag processing. In contrast to the former parameter, the mechanisms underlying peptide selection in Ag processing are poorly understood. Peptide translocation by the TAP transporter is required for presentation of most epitopes and may modulate peptide supply to MHC class I molecules. To study the role of human TAP for peptide presentation by individual HLA class I molecules, we generated artificial neural networks capable of predicting the affinity of TAP for random sequence 9-mer peptides. Using neural network-based predictions of TAP affinity, we found that peptides eluted from three different HLA class I molecules had higher TAP affinities than control peptides with equal binding affinities for the same HLA class I molecules, suggesting that human TAP may contribute to epitope selection. In simulated TAP binding experiments with 408 HLA class I binding peptides, HLA class I molecules differed significantly with respect to TAP affinities of their ligands, As a result, some class I molecules, especially HLA-B27, may be particularly efficient in presentation of cytosolic peptides with low concentrations, while most class I molecules may predominantly present abundant cytosolic peptides.

Control of fed-batch fermentations

Fed-batch fermentation is used to prevent or reduce substrate-associated growth inhibition by controlling nutrient supply. Here we review the advances in control of fed-batch fermentations. Simple exponential feeding and inferential methods are examined, as are newer methods based on fuzzy control and neural networks. Considerable interest has developed in these more advanced methods that hold promise for optimizing fed-batch techniques for complex fermentation systems. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Computational binding assays of antigenic peptides

Computer models can be combined with laboratory experiments for the efficient determination of (i) peptides that bind MHC molecules and (ii) T-cell epitopes. For maximum benefit, the use of computer models must be treated as experiments analogous to standard laboratory procedures. This requires the definition of standards and experimental protocols for model application. We describe the requirements for validation and assessment of computer models. The utility of combining accurate predictions with a limited number of laboratory experiments is illustrated by practical examples. These include the identification of T-cell epitopes from IDDM-, melanoma- and malaria-related antigens by combining computational and conventional laboratory assays. The success rate in determining antigenic peptides, each in the context of a specific HLA molecule, ranged from 27 to 71%, while the natural prevalence of MHC-binding peptides is 0.1-5%.

Knowledge discovery and data mining in biological databases

The new technologies for Knowledge Discovery from Databases (KDD) and data mining promise to bring new insights into a voluminous growing amount of biological data. KDD technology is complementary to laboratory experimentation and helps speed up biological research. This article contains an introduction to KDD, a review of data mining tools, and their biological applications. We discuss the domain concepts related to biological data and databases, as well as current KDD and data mining developments in biology.

Efficient discovery of immune response targets by cyclical refinement of QSAR models of peptide binding

Peptides that induce and recall T-cell responses are called T-cell epitopes. T-cell epitopes may be useful in a subunit vaccine against malaria. Computer models that simulate peptide binding to MHC are useful for selecting candidate T-cell epitopes since they minimize the number of experiments required for their identification. We applied a combination of computational and immunological strategies to select candidate T-cell epitopes. A total of 86 experimental binding assays were performed in three rounds of identification of HLA-All binding peptides from the six preerythrocytic malaria antigens. Thirty-six peptides were experimentally confirmed as binders. We show that the cyclical refinement of the ANN models results in a significant improvement of the efficiency of identifying potential T-cell epitopes. (C) 2001 by Elsevier Science Inc.

Methods for prediction of peptide binding to MHC molecules: A comparative study

Background: A variety of methods for prediction of peptide binding to major histocompatibility complex (MHC) have been proposed. These methods are based on binding motifs, binding matrices, hidden Markov models (HMM), or artificial neural networks (ANN). There has been little prior work on the comparative analysis of these methods. Materials and Methods: We performed a comparison of the performance of six methods applied to the prediction of two human MHC class I molecules, including binding matrices and motifs, ANNs, and HMMs. Results: The selection of the optimal prediction method depends on the amount of available data (the number of peptides of known binding affinity to the MHC molecule of interest), the biases in the data set and the intended purpose of the prediction (screening of a single protein versus mass screening). When little or no peptide data are available, binding motifs are the most useful alternative to random guessing or use of a complete overlapping set of peptides for selection of candidate binders. As the number of known peptide binders increases, binding matrices and HMM become more useful predictors. ANN and HMM are the predictive methods of choice for MHC alleles with more than 100 known binding peptides. Conclusion: The ability of bioinformatic methods to reliably predict MHC binding peptides, and thereby potential T-cell epitopes, has major implications for clinical immunology, particularly in the area of vaccine design.