The dynamics of asset prices and transaction activity in illiquid markets: the case of private commercial real estate

This paper investigates the relationship between capital flows, turnover and returns for the UK private real estate market. We examine a number of possible implication of capital flows and turnover on capital returns testing for evidence of a price pressure effect, ‘return chasing’ behaviour and information revelation. The main tool of analysis is a panel vector autoregressive (VAR) regression model in which institutional capital flows, turnover and returns are specified as endogenous variables in a two equation system in which we also control for macro-economic variables. Data on flows, turnover and returns are obtained for the 10 market segments covering the main UK commercial real estate sectors. Our results do not support the widely-held belief among practitioners that capital flows have a ‘price pressure’ effect. Although there is some evidence of return chasing behaviour, the short timescales involved suggest this finding may be due to delayed recording of flows relative to returns given the difficulties of market entry. We find a significant positive relationship between lagged turnover and contemporaneous capital returns, suggesting that asset turnover provides pricing information.

The gut microbiota elicits a profound metabolic reorientation in the mouse jejunal mucosa during conventionalisation

Objective: Proper interactions between the intestinal mucosa, gut microbiota and nutrient flow are required to establish homoeostasis of the host. Since the proximal part of the small intestine is the first region where these interactions occur, and since most of the nutrient absorption occurs in the jejunum, it is important to understand the dynamics of metabolic responses of the mucosa in this intestinal region.Design: Germ-free mice aged 8-10 weeks were conventionalised with faecal microbiota, and responses of the jejunal mucosa to bacterial colonisation were followed over a 30-day time course. Combined transcriptome, histology, (1)H NMR metabonomics and microbiota phylogenetic profiling analyses were used.Results: The jejunal mucosa showed a two-phase response to the colonising microbiota. The acute-phase response, which had already started 1 day after conventionalisation, involved repression of the cell cycle and parts of the basal metabolism. The secondary-phase response, which was consolidated during conventionalisation (days 4-30), was characterised by a metabolic shift from an oxidative energy supply to anabolic metabolism, as inferred from the tissue transcriptome and metabonome changes. Detailed transcriptome analysis identified tissue transcriptional signatures for the dynamic control of the metabolic reorientation in the jejunum. The molecular components identified in the response signatures have known roles in human metabolic disorders, including insulin sensitivity and type 2 diabetes mellitus.Conclusion: This study elucidates the dynamic jejunal response to the microbiota and supports a prominent role for the jejunum in metabolic control, including glucose and energy homoeostasis. The molecular signatures of this process may help to find risk markers in the declining insulin sensitivity seen in human type 2 diabetes mellitus, for instance.

A framework for adapting survey design through time for wildlife population assessment

Sampling strategies for monitoring the status and trends in wildlife populations are often determined before the first survey is undertaken. However, there may be little information about the distribution of the population and so the sample design may be inefficient. Through time, as data are collected, more information about the distribution of animals in the survey region is obtained but it can be difficult to incorporate this information in the survey design. This paper introduces a framework for monitoring motile wildlife populations within which the design of future surveys can be adapted using data from past surveys whilst ensuring consistency in design-based estimates of status and trends through time. In each survey, part of the sample is selected from the previous survey sample using simple random sampling. The rest is selected with inclusion probability proportional to predicted abundance. Abundance is predicted using a model constructed from previous survey data and covariates for the whole survey region. Unbiased design-based estimators of status and trends and their variances are derived from two-phase sampling theory. Simulations over the short and long-term indicate that in general more precise estimates of status and trends are obtained using this mixed strategy than a strategy in which all of the sample is retained or all selected with probability proportional to predicted abundance. Furthermore the mixed strategy is robust to poor predictions of abundance. Estimates of status are more precise than those obtained from a rotating panel design.

The energy-cycle analysis of the interactions between shallow and deep atmospheric convection

Interactions between different convection modes can be investigated using an energy–cycle description under a framework of mass–flux parameterization. The present paper systematically investigates this system by taking a limit of two modes: shallow and deep convection. Shallow convection destabilizes itself as well as the other convective modes by moistening and cooling the environment, whereas deep convection stabilizes itself as well as the other modes by drying and warming the environment. As a result, shallow convection leads to a runaway growth process in its stand–alone mode, whereas deep convection simply damps out. Interaction between these two convective modes becomes a rich problem, even when it is limited to the case with no large–scale forcing, because of these opposing tendencies. Only if the two modes are coupled at a proper level can a self–sustaining system arise, exhibiting a periodic cycle. The present study establishes the conditions for self–sustaining periodic solutions. It carefully documents the behaviour of the two mode system in order to facilitate the interpretation of global model behaviours when this energy–cycle is implemented as a closure into a convection parameterization in future.

Multiwavelength Observations of EXO 0748-676. II. Emission-Line Behavior

We present optical and ultraviolet spectra, light curves, and Doppler tomograms of the low-mass X-ray binary EXO 0748-676. Using an extensive set of 15 emission-line tomograms, we show that, along with the usual emission from the stream and ``hot spot,'' there is extended nonaxisymmetric emission from the disk rim. Some of the emission and Hα and Hβ absorption features lend weight to the hypothesis that part of the stream overflows the disk rim and forms a two phase medium. The data are consistent with a 1.35 Msolar neutron star with a main-sequence companion and hence a mass ratio q~0.34.

Sea ice is a mushy layer

[1] Sea ice is a two-phase, two-component, reactive porous medium: an example of what is known in other contexts as a mushy layer. The fundamental conservation laws underlying the mathematical description of mushy layers provide a robust foundation for the prediction of sea-ice evolution. Here we show that the general equations describing mushy layers reduce to the model of Maykut and Untersteiner (1971) under the same approximations employed therein.

A moving mesh approach for modelling avascular tumour growth

A key step in many numerical schemes for time-dependent partial differential equations with moving boundaries is to rescale the problem to a fixed numerical mesh. An alternative approach is to use a moving mesh that can be adapted to focus on specific features of the model. In this paper we present and discuss two different velocity-based moving mesh methods applied to a two-phase model of avascular tumour growth formulated by Breward et al. (2002) J. Math. Biol. 45(2), 125-152. Each method has one moving node which tracks the moving boundary. The first moving mesh method uses a mesh velocity proportional to the boundary velocity. The second moving mesh method uses local conservation of volume fraction of cells (masses). Our results demonstrate that these moving mesh methods produce accurate results, offering higher resolution where desired whilst preserving the balance of fluxes and sources in the governing equations.

Phospholipid-based microemulsions suitable for use in foods

The preparation of nonaqueous microemulsions using food-acceptable components is reported. The effect of oil on the formation of microemulsions stabilized by lecithin (Epikuron 200) and containing propylene glycol as immiscible solvent was investigated. When the triglycerides were used as oil, three types of phase behavior were noted, namely, a two-phase cloudy region (occurring at low lecithin concentrations), a liquid crystalline (LC) phase (occurring at high surfactant and low oil concentrations), and a clear monophasic microemulsion region. The extent of this clear one-phase region was found to be dependent upon the molecular volume of the oil being solubilized. Large molecular volume oils, such as soybean and sunflower oils, produced a small microemulsion region, whereas the smallest molecular volume triglyceride, tributyrin, produced a large, clear monophasic region. Use of the ethyl ester, ethyl oleate, as oil produced a clear, monophasic region of a size comparable to that seen with tributyrin. Substitution of some of the propylene glycol with water greatly reduced the extent of the clear one-phase region and increased the extent of the liquid crystalline region. In contrast, ethanol enhanced the clear, monophasic region by decreasing the LC phase. Replacement of some of the lecithin with the micelle-forming nonionic surfactant Tween 80 to produce mixed lecithin/Tween 80 mixtures of weight ratios (Km) 1:2 and 1:3 did not significantly alter the phase behavior, although there was a marginal increase in the area of the two-phase, cloudy region of the phase diagram. The use of the lower phosphatidylcholine content lecithin, Epikuron 170, in place of Epikuron 200 resulted in a reduction in the LC region for all of the systems investigated. In conclusion, these studies show that it is possible to prepare one-phase, clear lecithin-based microemulsions over a wide range of compositions using components that are food-acceptable.

Investigating early years teachers’ understanding and response to children’s preconceptions

This paper focuses on young children’s scientific preconceptions and discusses teachers’ identification of these preconceptions when teaching science in the early years, on which research is still limited. This paper is based on the theoretical framework of constructivism and it defines preconceptions as children’s erroneous concepts prior to formal education. A two phase case study approach was employed, facilitating in-depth investigation though the use of questionnaires, interviews and observations. The results indicate that the teachers did not dedicate time to identify children’s preconceptions when planning and teaching science, even when acknowledging preconceptions’ possible existence. This indicates a possible lack of appreciation of the importance of children’s preconceptions of the consequences when ignoring them. The results also indicate the need for further training and professional development in relation to the teaching of early-years science, especially since only a very small percentage of early years teachers tend to study science during their years compulsory education. A number of suggestions are also provided for practice and policy that can be useful for other subjects as well.

Modelling the secular evolution of migrating planet pairs

The subject of this paper is the secular behaviour of a pair of planets evolving under dissipative forces. In particular, we investigate the case when dissipative forces affect the planetary semimajor axes and the planets move inwards/outwards the central star, in a process known as planet migration. To perform this investigation, we introduce fundamental concepts of conservative and dissipative dynamics of the three-body problem. Based on these concepts, we develop a qualitative model of the secular evolution of the migrating planetary pair. Our approach is based on the analysis of the energy and the orbital angular momentum exchange between the two-planet system and an external medium; thus no specific kind of dissipative forces is invoked. We show that, under the assumption that dissipation is weak and slow, the evolutionary routes of the migrating planets are traced by the Mode I and Mode II stationary solutions of the conservative secular problem. The ultimate convergence and the evolution of the system along one of these secular modes of motion are determined uniquely by the condition that the dissipation rate is sufficiently smaller than the proper secular frequency of the system. We show that it is possible to reassemble the starting configurations and the migration history of the systems on the basis of their final states and consequently to constrain the parameters of the physical processes involved.

A singular integro-differential equation model for dryout in LMFBR boiler tubes

A 2D steady model for the annular two-phase flow of water and steam in the steam-generating boiler pipes of a liquid metal fast breeder reactor is proposed The model is based on thin-layer lubrication theory and thin aerofoil theory. The exchange of mass between the vapour core and the liquid film due to evaporation of the liquid film is accounted for using some simple thermodynamics models, and the resultant change of phase is modelled by proposing a suitable Stefan problem Appropriate boundary conditions for the now are discussed The resulting non-lineal singular integro-differential equation for the shape of the liquid film free surface is solved both asymptotically and numerically (using some regularization techniques) Predictions for the length to the dryout point from the entry of the annular regime are made The influence of both the traction tau provided by the fast-flowing vapour core on the liquid layer and the mass transfer parameter eta on the dryout length is investigated

Vesicles with charged domains

This work summarizes results obtained on membranes composed of the ternary mixture dioleoylphosphatidylglycerol (DOPG), egg sphingomyelin (eSM) and cholesterol (Chol). The membrane phase state as a function of composition is characterized from data collected with fluorescence microscopy on giant unilamellar vesicles. The results suggest that the presence of the charged DOPG significantly decreases the composition region of coexistence of liquid ordered and liquid disordered phases as compared to that in the ternary mixture of dioleoylphosphatidycholine, sphingomyelin and cholesterol. The addition of calcium chloride to DOPG:eSM:Chol vesicles, and to a lesser extent the addition of sodium chloride, leads to the stabilization of the two-phase coexistence region, which is expressed in an increase in the miscibility temperature. On the other hand, addition of the chelating agent EDTA has the opposite effect, suggesting that impurities of divalent cations in preparations of giant vesicles contribute to the stabilization of charged domains. We also explore the behavior of these membranes in the presence of extruded unilamellar vesicles made of the positively charged lipid dioleoyltrimethylammoniumpropane (DOTAP). The latter can induce domain formation in DOPG:eSM:Chol vesicles with initial composition in the one-phase region. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Study of Hydrated Bentonite

Impedance spectroscopy and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) were used to investigate the mobility of water molecules located in the interlayer space of H(+) - exchanged bentonite clay. The conductivity obtained by ac measurements was 1.25 x 10(-4) S/cm at 298 K. Proton ((1)H) lineshapes and spin-lattice relaxation times were measured as a function of temperature over the temperature range 130-320 K. The NMR experiments exhibit the qualitative features associated with the proton motion, namely the presence of a (1)H NMR line narrowing and a well-defined spin-lattice relaxation rate maximum. The temperature dependence of the proton spin-lattice relaxation rates was analyzed with the spectral density function appropriate for proton dynamics in a two-dimensional system. The self-diffusion coefficient estimated from our NMR data, D similar to 2 x 10(-7) cm(2)/s at 300 K, is consistent with those reported for exchanged montmorillonite clay hydrates studied by NMR and quasi-elastic neutron scattering (QNS).

Cell-cell signal-dependent dynamic interactions between HD-GYP and GGDEF domain proteins mediate virulence in Xanthomonas campestris

RpfG is a paradigm for a class of widespread bacterial two-component regulators with a CheY-like receiver domain attached to a histidine-aspartic acid-glycine-tyrosine-proline (HD-GYP) cyclic di-GMP phosphodiesterase domain. In the plant pathogen Xanthomonas campestris pv. campestris (Xcc), a two-component system comprising RpfG and the complex sensor kinase RpfC is implicated in sensing and responding to the diffusible signaling factor (DSF), which is essential for cell-cell signaling. RpfF is involved in synthesizing DSF, and mutations of rpfF, rpfG, or rpfC lead to a coordinate reduction in the synthesis of virulence factors such as extracellular enzymes, biofilm structure, and motility. Using yeast two-hybrid analysis and fluorescence resonance energy transfer experiments in Xcc, we show that the physical interaction of RpfG with two proteins with diguanylate cyclase (GGDEF) domains controls a subset of RpfG-regulated virulence functions. RpfG interactions were abolished by alanine substitutions of the three residues of the conserved GYP motif in the HD-GYP domain. Changing the GYP motif or deletion of the two GGDEF-domain proteins reduced Xcc motility but not the synthesis of extracellular enzymes or biofilm formation. RpfG-GGDEF interactions are dynamic and depend on DSF signaling, being reduced in the rpfF mutant but restored by DSF addition. The results are consistent with a model in which DSF signal transduction controlling motility depends on a highly regulated, dynamic interaction of proteins that influence the localized expression of cyclic di-GMP.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa PA14 cupD transcription is activated by the RcsB response regulator, but repressed by its putative cognate sensor RcsC

The opportunistic pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa PA14 possesses four fimbrial cup clusters, which may confer the ability to adapt to different environments. cupD lies in the pathogenicity island PAPI-1 next to genes coding for a putative phosphorelay system composed of the hybrid histidine kinase RcsC and the response regulator RcsB. The main focus of this work was the regulation of cupD at the mRNA level. It was found that the HN-S-like protein MvaT does not exert a strong influence on cupD transcript levels, as it does for cupA. cupD transcription is higher in cultures grown at 28 degrees C, which agrees with a cupD mutant presenting attenuated virulence only in a plant model, but not in a mouse model of infection. Whereas an rcsC in-frame deletion mutant presented higher levels of cupD mRNA, rcsB deletion had the opposite effect. Accordingly, overexpression of RcsB increased the levels of cupD transcription, and promoted biofilm formation and the appearance of fimbriae. A single transcription start site was determined for cupD and transcription from this site was induced by RcsB. A motif similar to the enterobacterial RcsB/RcsA-binding site was detected adjacent to the -35 region, suggesting that this could be the RcsB-binding site. Comparison of P. aeruginosa and Escherichia coli Rcs may provide insights into how similar systems can be used by different bacteria to control gene expression and to adapt to various environmental conditions.