Crude oil and agricultural futures: An analysis of correlation dynamics

Correlations between oil and agricultural commodities have varied over previous decades, impacted by renewable fuels policy and turbulent economic conditions. We estimate smooth transition conditional correlation models for 12 agricultural commodities and WTI crude oil. While a structural change in correlations occurred concurrently with the introduction of biofuel policy, oil and food price levels are also key influences. High correlation between biofuel feedstocks and oil is more likely to occur when food and oil price levels are high. Correlation with oil returns is strong for biofuel feedstocks, unlike with other agricultural futures, suggesting limited contagion from energy to food markets.

Impacts of level of utilisation by grazing on an Astrebla (Mitchell grass) grassland in north-western Queensland between 1984 and 2010. 1. Herbage mass and population dynamics of Astrebla spp

Managing large variations in herbage production, resulting from highly variable seasonal rainfall, provides a major challenge for the sustainable management of Astrebla (Mitchell grass) grasslands in Australia. A grazing study with sheep was conducted between 1984 and 2010 on an Astrebla grassland in northern Queensland to describe the effects of a range of levels of utilisation of the herbage at the end of the summer growing season (April–May in northern Australia) on the sustainability of these grasslands. In unreplicated paddocks, sheep numbers were adjusted annually to achieve 0, 10, 20, 30, 50 and 80% utilisation of the herbage mass at the end of the summer over the ensuing 12 months. Higher levels of utilisation reduced both total and Astrebla spp. herbage mass because of the effects of higher utilisation on Astrebla spp. and this effect was accentuated by drought. The tussock density of Astrebla spp. varied widely among years but with few treatment differences until 2005 when density was reduced at the 50% level of utilisation. A major change in density resulted from a large recruitment of Astrebla spp. in 1989 that influenced its density for the remainder of the study. Basal area of the tussocks fluctuated among years, with increases due to rainfall and decreases during droughts. Seasonal rainfall was more influential than level of utilisation in changes to the basal area of perennial grasses. Drought resulted in the death of Astrebla spp. tussocks and this effect was accentuated at higher levels of utilisation. A series of three grazing exclosures were used to examine the recovery of the density and basal area of Astrebla spp. after it had been reduced by 80% utilisation over the preceding 9 years. This recovery study indicated that, although grazing exclusion was useful in the recovery of Astrebla spp., above-average rainfall was the major factor driving increases in the basal area of perennial grasses. Spring values of the Southern Oscillation Index and associated rainfall probabilities were considered to have potential for understanding the dynamics of Astrebla spp. It was concluded that Astrebla grassland remained sustainable after 26 years when grazed at up to 30% utilisation, while, at 50% utilisation, they became unsustainable after 20 years. Results from this study emphasised the need to maintain the population of Astrebla spp. tussocks.

Soil seed bank dynamics in response to an extreme flood event in a riparian habitat

A significantly increased water regime can lead to inundation of rivers, creeks and surrounding floodplains- and thus impact on the temporal dynamics of both the extant vegetation and the dormant, but viable soil-seed bank of riparian corridors. The study documented changes in the soil seed-bank along riparian corridors before and after a major flood event in January 2011 in southeast Queensland, Australia. The study site was a major river (the Mooleyember creek) near Roma, Central Queensland impacted by the extreme flood event and where baseline ecological data on riparian seed-bank populations have previously been collected in 2007, 2008 and 2009. After the major flood event, we collected further soil samples from the same locations in spring/summer (November–December 2011) and in early autumn (March 2012). Thereafter, the soils were exposed to adequate warmth and moisture under glasshouse conditions, and emerged seedlings identified taxonomically. Flooding increased seed-bank abundance but decreased its species richness and diversity. However, flood impact was less than that of yearly effect but greater than that of seasonal variation. Seeds of trees and shrubs were few in the soil, and were negatively affected by the flood; those of herbaceous and graminoids were numerous and proliferate after the flood. Seed-banks of weedy and/or exotic species were no more affected by the flood than those of native and/or non-invasive species. Overall, the studied riparian zone showed evidence of a quick recovery of its seed-bank over time, and can be considered to be resilient to an extreme flood event.

Patterns of service utilisation within Australian hepatology clinics: High prevalence of advanced liver disease

Accepted Article Abstract Background: Liver diseases in Australia are estimated to affect 6 million people with a societal cost of $51 billion annually. Information about utilization of specialist hepatology care is critical in informing policy makers about the requirements for delivery of hepatology-related health care. Aims: This study examined etiology and severity of liver disease seen in a tertiary hospital hepatology clinic, as well as resource utilisation patterns. Methods: A longitudinal cohort study included consecutive patients booked in hepatology outpatient clinics during a 3 month period. Subsequent outpatient appointments for these patients over the following 12 months were then recorded. Results: During the initial 3 month period 1471 appointments were scheduled with a hepatologist, 1136 of which were attended. 21% of patients were “new cases”. Hepatitis B (HBV) was the most common disease etiology for new cases (37%). Advanced disease at presentation varied between etiology, with HBV (5%), Hepatitis C (HCV) (31%), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) (46%) and alcoholic liver disease (ALD) (72%). Most patients (83%) attended multiple hepatology appointments, and a range of referrals patterns for procedures, investigations and other specialty assessments were observed. Conclusions: There is a high prevalence of HBV in new case referrals. Patients with HCV, NAFLD and ALD have a high prevalence of advanced liver disease at referral, requiring ongoing surveillance for development of decompensated liver disease and liver cancer. These findings that describe patterns of health service utilisation among patients with liver disease provide useful information for planning sustainable health service provision for this clinical population

Ecological dynamics of emerging bat virus spillover

Viruses that originate in bats may be the most notorious emerging zoonoses that spill over from wildlife into domestic animals and humans. Understanding how these infections filter through ecological systems to cause disease in humans is of profound importance to public health. Transmission of viruses from bats to humans requires a hierarchy of enabling conditions that connect the distribution of reservoir hosts, viral infection within these hosts, and exposure and susceptibility of recipient hosts. For many emerging bat viruses, spillover also requires viral shedding from bats, and survival of the virus in the environment. Focusing on Hendra virus, but also addressing Nipah virus, Ebola virus, Marburg virus and coronaviruses, we delineate this cross-species spillover dynamic from the within-host processes that drive virus excretion to land-use changes that increase interaction among species. We describe how land-use changes may affect co-occurrence and contact between bats and recipient hosts. Two hypotheses may explain temporal and spatial pulses of virus shedding in bat populations: episodic shedding from persistently infected bats or transient epidemics that occur as virus is transmitted among bat populations. Management of livestock also may affect the probability of exposure and disease. Interventions to decrease the probability of virus spillover can be implemented at multiple levels from targeting the reservoir host to managing recipient host exposure and susceptibility.

Phenotyping novel stay-green traits to capture genetic variation in senescence dynamics

Stay-green plants retain green leaves longer after anthesis and can have improved yield, particularly under water limitation. As senescence is a dynamic process, genotypes with different senescence patterns may exhibit similar final normalised difference vegetative index (NDVI). By monitoring NDVI from as early as awn emergence to maturity, we demonstrate that analysing senescence dynamics improves insight into genotypic stay-green variation. A senescence evaluation tool was developed to fit a logistic function to NDVI data and used to analyse data from three environments for a wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) population whose lines contrast for stay-green. Key stay-green traits were estimated including, maximum NDVI, senescence rate and a trait integrating NDVI variation after anthesis, as well as the timing from anthesis to onset, midpoint and conclusion of senescence. The integrative trait and the timing to onset and mid-senescence exhibited high positive correlations with yield and a high heritability in the three studied environments. Senescence rate was correlated with yield in some environments, whereas maximum NDVI was associated with yield in a drought-stressed environment. Where resources preclude frequent measurements, we found that NDVI measurements may be restricted to the period of rapid senescence, but caution is required when dealing with lines of different phenology. In contrast, regular monitoring during the whole period after flowering allows the estimation of senescence dynamics traits that may be reliably compared across genotypes and environments. We anticipate that selection for stay-green traits will enhance genetic progress towards high-yielding, stay-green germplasm.

Early-season movement dynamics of phytophagous pest and natural enemies across a native vegetation-crop ecotone

There is limited understanding about how insect movement patterns are influenced by landscape features, and how landscapes can be managed to suppress pest phytophage populations in crops. Theory suggests that the relative timing of pest and natural enemy arrival in crops may influence pest suppression. However, there is a lack of data to substantiate this claim. We investigate the movement patterns of insects from native vegetation (NV) and discuss the implications of these patterns for pest control services. Using bi-directional interception traps we quantified the number of insects crossing an NV/crop ecotone relative to a control crop/crop interface in two agricultural regions early in the growing season. We used these data to infer patterns of movement and net flux. At the community-level, insect movement patterns were influenced by ecotone in two out of three years by region combinations. At the functional-group level, pests and parasitoids showed similar movement patterns from NV very soon after crop emergence. However, movement across the control interface increased towards the end of the early-season sampling period. Predators consistently moved more often from NV into crops than vice versa, even after crop emergence. Not all species showed a significant response to ecotone, however when a response was detected, these species showed similar patterns between the two regions. Our results highlight the importance of NV for the recruitment of natural enemies for early season crop immigration that may be potentially important for pest suppression. However, NV was also associated with crop immigration by some pest species. Hence, NV offers both opportunities and risks for pest management. The development of targeted NV management may reduce the risk of crop immigration by pests, but not of natural enemies.

Eurasian large mammal dynamics in response to changing environments during the Late Neogene

Nisäkkäiden levinneisyyteen, niiden morfologisiin ja ekologisiin piirteisiin vaikuttavat ympäristön sekä lyhyet että pitkäkestoiset muutokset, etenkin ilmaston ja kasvillisuuden vaihtelut. Työssä tutkittiin nisäkkäiden sopeutumista ilmastonmuutoksiin Euraasiassa viimeisen 24 miljoonan vuoden aikana. Tutkimuksessa keskityttiin varsinkin viimeiseen kahteen miljoonaan vuoteen, jonka aikana ilmasto muuttui voimakkaasti ja ihmisen toiminta alkoi tulla merkittäväksi. Tämän takia on usein vaikea erottaa, kummasta em. seikasta jonkin nisäkäslajin sukupuutto tai häviäminen alueelta johtui. Aineistona käytettiin laajaa venäjänkielistä kirjallisuutta, josta löytyvät tiedot ovat kääntämättöminä jääneet aiemmin länsimaisen tutkimuksen ulkopuolelle. Työssä käytettiin myös NOW-tietokantaa, jossa on fossiilisten nisäkkäiden löytöpaikat sekä niiden iät.

Weed dynamics as influenced by tillage system, sowing time and weed competition duration in dry-seeded rice

Cultural practices alter patterns of crop growth and can modify dynamics of weed-crop competition, and hence need to be investigated to evolve sustainable weed management in dry-seeded rice (DSR). Studies on weed dynamics in DSR sown at different times under two tillage systems were conducted at the Agronomic Research Farm, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan. A commonly grown fine rice cultivar 'Super Basmati' was sown on 15th June and 7th July of 2010 and 2011 under zero-till (ZT) and conventional tillage (CONT) and it was subjected to different durations of weed competition [10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 days after sowing (DAS) and season-long competition]. Weed-free plots were maintained under each tillage system and sowing time for comparison. Grassy weeds were higher under ZT while CONT had higher relative proportion of broad-leaved weeds in terms of density and biomass. Density of sedges was higher by 175% in the crop sown on the 7th July than on the 15th June. Delaying sowing time of DSR from mid June to the first week of July reduced weed density by 69 and 43% but their biomass remained unaffected. Tillage systems had no effect on total weed biomass. Plots subjected to season-long weed competition had mostly grasses while broad-leaved weeds were not observed at harvest. In the second year of study, dominance of grassy weeds was increased under both tillage systems and sowing times. Significantly less biomass (48%) of grassy weeds was observed under CONT than ZT in 2010; however, during 2011, this effect was non-significant. Trianthema portulacastrum and Dactyloctenium aegyptium were the dominant broad-leaved and grassy weeds, respectively. Cyperus rotundus was the dominant sedge weed, especially in the crop sown on the 7th July. Relative yield loss (RYL) ranged from 3 to 13% and 7 to16% when weeds were allowed to compete only for 20 DAS. Under season-long weed competition, RYL ranged from 68 to 77% in 2010 and 74 to80% in 2011. The sowing time of 15th June was effective in minimizing weed proliferation and rectifying yield penalty associated with the 7th July sowing. The results suggest that DSR in Pakistan should preferably be sown on 15th June under CONT systems and weeds must be controlled before 20 DAS to avoid yield losses. Successful adoption of DSR at growers' fields in Pakistan will depend on whether growers can control weeds and prevent shifts in weed population from intractable weeds to more difficult-to-control weeds as a consequence of DSR adoption.

Regularized numerical integration of multibody dynamics with the generalized alpha method*

This paper discusses the consistent regularization property of the generalized α method when applied as an integrator to an initial value high index and singular differential-algebraic equation model of a multibody system. The regularization comes from within the discretization itself and the discretization remains consistent over the range of values the regularization parameter may take. The regularization involves increase of the smallest singular values of the ill-conditioned Jacobian of the discretization and is different from Baumgarte and similar techniques which tend to be inconsistent for poor choice of regularization parameter. This regularization also helps where pre-conditioning the Jacobian by scaling is of limited effect, for example, when the scleronomic constraints contain multiple closed loops or singular configuration or when high index path constraints are present. The feed-forward control in Kane's equation models is additionally considered in the numerical examples to illustrate the effect of regularization. The discretization presented in this work is adopted to the first order DAE system (unlike the original method which is intended for second order systems) for its A-stability and same order of accuracy for positions and velocities.

Population dynamics of Thaumastocoris peregrinus in Eucalyptus plantations of South Africa

Thaumastocoris peregrinus is a sap-sucking insect that infests non-native Eucalyptus plantations in Africa, New Zealand, South America and parts of Southern Europe, in addition to street trees in parts of its native range of Australia. In South Africa, pronounced fluctuations in the population densities have been observed. To characterise spatiotemporal variability in T. peregrinus abundance and the factors that might influence it, we monitored adult population densities at six sites in the main eucalypt growing regions of South Africa. At each site, twenty yellow sticky traps were monitored weekly for 30 months, together with climatic data. We also characterised the influence of temperature on growth and survival experimentally and used this to model how temperature may influence population dynamics. T. peregrinus was present throughout the year at all sites, with annual site-specific peaks in abundance. Peaks occurred during autumn (February–April) for the Pretoria site, summer (November–January) for the Zululand site and spring (August–October) for the Tzaneen, Sabie and Piet Retief monitoring sites. Temperature (both experimental and field-collected), humidity and rainfall were mostly weakly, or not at all, associated with population fluctuations. It is clear that a complex interaction of these and other factors (e.g. host quality) influence population fluctuations in an annual, site specific cycle. The results obtained not only provide insights into the biology of T. peregrinus, but will also be important for future planning of monitoring and control programs using semiochemicals, chemical insecticides or biological control agents.

Ecological dynamics of emerging bat virus spillover

Viruses that originate in bats may be the most notorious emerging zoonoses that spill over from wildlife into domestic animals and humans. Understanding how these infections filter through ecological systems to cause disease in humans is of profound importance to public health. Transmission of viruses from bats to humans requires a hierarchy of enabling conditions that connect the distribution of reservoir hosts, viral infection within these hosts, and exposure and susceptibility of recipient hosts. For many emerging bat viruses, spillover also requires viral shedding from bats, and survival of the virus in the environment. Focusing on Hendra virus, but also addressing Nipah virus, Ebola virus, Marburg virus and coronaviruses, we delineate this cross-species spillover dynamic from the within-host processes that drive virus excretion to land-use changes that increase interaction among species. We describe how land-use changes may affect co-occurrence and contact between bats and recipient hosts. Two hypotheses may explain temporal and spatial pulses of virus shedding in bat populations: episodic shedding from persistently infected bats or transient epidemics that occur as virus is transmitted among bat populations. Management of livestock also may affect the probability of exposure and disease. Interventions to decrease the probability of virus spillover can be implemented at multiple levels from targeting the reservoir host to managing recipient host exposure and susceptibility.