The Role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.

Execució d'un projecte TIC

Este proyecto intenta dar solución al problema que se ha encontrado la empresa VGG Aplicaciones,S.C.P. a la hora de hacer pruebas en el desarrollo de su principal producto de logística Appia para integración con transportes. El programa que se ha realizado en este proyecto, pretende integrar todas las diferentes agencias de transportes en una única aplicación para su correcta administración desde un mismo entorno de trabajo y no duplicar tareas.

The ethnography of study abroad: what is study abroad as a cultural event?

Recent research in the field of study abroad shows that study abroad participation among all U.S. students increased 20% since 2001 and nearly 200,000 U.S. students currently go abroad each year. Additionally, about 8% of all undergraduate degree recipients receive part of their education abroad. Although quantitative studies have dominated research on study abroad, my research project calls for a qualitative approach since the goal is to understand what study abroad is as a cultural event, what authentic cultural immersion is, how program stakeholders understand and perceive cultural immersion, and how cultural immersion in programs can be improved. Following the tradition of ethnographic and case study approaches in study abroad research, my study also pivots on ethnography. As an ethnographer I collected data mainly through participant observation, semi-structured interviews, and document analysis. The study abroad participants were a group of undergraduate native speakers of English studying Spanish for seven weeks in Cádiz, a small costal city in southern Spain, as well as program coordinators, host community members, and professors. I also examined the specific program design features, particularly the in-class and out-of-class activities that students participated in. The goal was to understand if these features were conducive to authentic immersion in the language and culture. Eventually, I elaborated an ethnographic evaluation of the study abroad program and its design features suggesting improvements in order to enhance the significance and value of study abroad as a cultural event. Among other things, I discussed the difficulties that students had at the beginning of their sojourn to understand local people, get used to their host families’ small apartments, get adjusted to new schedules and eating habits, and venture out from the main group to individually explore the new social and cultural fabric and interact with the host community. The program evaluation revealed the need for carefully-designed pre-departure preparation sessions, pre-departure credit-bearing courses in intercultural communication, and additional language practice abroad and opportunities to come in contact with the local community through internships, volunteer or field work. My study gives an important contribution in study abroad research and education. It benefits students, teachers, and study abroad directors and coordinators in suggesting ideas on how to improve the program and optimize the students’ cultural experiences abroad. This study is also important because it investigated how US undergraduate learners studying the Spanish language and culture approach and perceive the study abroad experience in Spain.

Do brief alcohol motivational interventions work like we think they do?

BACKGROUND: Questions remain about how brief motivational interventions (BMIs) for unhealthy alcohol use work, and addressing these questions may be important for improving their efficacy. Therefore, we assessed the effects of various characteristics of BMIs on drinking outcomes across 3 randomized controlled trials (RCTs). METHODS: Audio recordings of 314 BMIs were coded. We used the global rating scales of the Motivational Interviewing Skills Code (MISC) 2.1: counselor's acceptance, empathy, and motivational interviewing (MI) spirit, and patient's self-exploration were rated. MI proficiency was defined as counselor's rating scale scores ≥5. We also used the structure, confrontation, and advice subscale scores of the Therapy Process Rating Scale and the Working Alliance Inventory. We examined these process characteristics in interventions across 1 U.S. RCT of middle-aged medical inpatients with unhealthy alcohol use (n = 124) and 2 Swiss RCTs of young men with binge drinking in a nonclinical setting: Swiss-one (n = 62) and Swiss-two (n = 128). We assessed the associations between these characteristics and drinks/d reported by participants 3 to 6 months after study entry. RESULTS: In all 3 RCTs, mean MISC counselor's rating scales scores were consistent with MI proficiency. In overdispersed Poisson regression models, most BMI characteristics were not significantly associated with drinks/d in follow-up. In the U.S. RCT, confrontation and self-exploration were associated with more drinking. Giving advice was significantly associated with less drinking in the Swiss-one RCT. Contrary to expectations, MI spirit was not consistently associated with drinking across studies. CONCLUSIONS: Across different populations and settings, intervention characteristics viewed as central to efficacious BMIs were neither robust nor consistent predictors of drinking outcome. Although there may be alternative reasons why the level of MI processes was not predictive of outcomes in these studies (limited variability in scores), efforts to understand what makes BMIs efficacious may require attention to factors beyond intervention process characteristics typically examined.

Aplicació web per gestió de tornejos d'escacs amb J2EE

L'aplicació consisteix en un programa web que des d'un navegador ens permet realitzar una sèrie de consultes i de gestions contra una base de dades de tornejos d'escacs. Les gestions i consultes variaran segons el rol d'usuari sigui administrador, gestor o usuari Internet. Així, l'aplicació consta d'un servidor, una base de dades, unes classes entitat Java que treballaran a la capa de model per fer els canvis a la Base de dades, unes pàgines html i jsp, que estaran a la capa de vista, uns fitxers de configuració .xml i uns fitxers .java que actuaran a la capa de control. Els rols s'han implantat a nivell de servidor, amb una pàgina de login, i segons el rol escollit, es tindrà accés a una carpeta (zona) o altra.

A large study of androgen receptor germline variants and their relation to sex hormone levels and prostate cancer risk. Results from the National Cancer Institute Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium

Background: Androgens are key regulators of prostate gland maintenance and prostate cancer growth, and androgen deprivation therapy has been the mainstay of treatment for advanced prostate cancer for many years. A long-standing hypothesis has been that inherited variation in the androgen receptor (AR) gene plays a role in prostate cancer initiation. However, studies to date have been inconclusive and often suffered from small sample sizes. Objective and Methods: We investigated the association of AR sequence variants with circulating sex hormone levels and prostate cancer risk in 6058 prostate cancer cases and 6725 controls of Caucasian origin within the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium. We genotyped a highly polymorphic CAG microsatellite in exon 1 and six haplotype tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms and tested each genetic variant for association with prostate cancer risk and with sex steroid levels. Results: We observed no association between AR genetic variants and prostate cancer risk. However, there was a strong association between longer CAG repeats and higher levels of testosterone (P = 4.73 × 10−5) and estradiol (P = 0.0002), although the amount of variance explained was small (0.4 and 0.7%, respectively). Conclusions: This study is the largest to date investigating AR sequence variants, sex steroid levels, and prostate cancer risk. Although we observed no association between AR sequence variants and prostate cancer risk, our results support earlier findings of a relation between the number of CAG repeats and circulating levels of testosterone and estradiol.

8-weeks training program attenuates mitochondrial oxidative stress in the liver of emotionally stressed rats

In recent years it has been shown that emotional stress induced by immobilization may change the balance between pro-oxidant and antioxidant factors inducing oxidative damage. On the other hand, contradictory views exist concerning the role of physical activity on redox metabolism. Consequently, the present work was designed to assess the influence of an 8-week moderate swimming training program in emotionally stressed rats. Sixty 1-month-old male albino Wistar rats weighing 125-135 g were used in this experimental study. They were divided into three groups, as Control (lot A; n=20), Stressed (lot B; n=20) and Stressed & Exercised (lot C; n=20). Rats were stressed by placing the animals in a 25 x 7 cm plastic bottle 1 h/day, 5 days a week for 8 weeks. Protein carbonyl content values in liver homogenates were significantly increased in stressed animals (0.58+/-0.02 vs 0.86+/-0.03; p=0.018) which clearly indicated that emotional stress was associated with oxidative stress. Ultrastructural alterations, predominantly mitochondrial swelling and the decrease of cristae number observed by electron microscopy represented direct evidence of membrane injury. The most striking feature of our study was that we also found differences between stressed rats and stressed rats that performed our 8 week training program. Consequently our results highlight the potential benefit of a moderate training program to reduce oxidative damage induced by emotional stress since it attenuated protein oxidation and mitochondrial alterations.

Drugs Associated with Hepatotoxicity and their Reporting Frequency of Liver Adverse Events in VigiBase (TM) Unified List Based on International Collaborative Work

BACKGROUND Challenges exist in the clinical diagnosis of drug-induced liver injury (DILI) and in obtaining information on hepatotoxicity in humans. OBJECTIVE (i) To develop a unified list that combines drugs incriminated in well vetted or adjudicated DILI cases from many recognized sources and drugs that have been subjected to serious regulatory actions due to hepatotoxicity; and (ii) to supplement the drug list with data on reporting frequencies of liver events in the WHO individual case safety report database (VigiBase). DATA SOURCES AND EXTRACTION (i) Drugs identified as causes of DILI at three major DILI registries; (ii) drugs identified as causes of drug-induced acute liver failure (ALF) in six different data sources, including major ALF registries and previously published ALF studies; and (iii) drugs identified as being subjected to serious governmental regulatory actions due to their hepatotoxicity in Europe or the US were collected. The reporting frequency of adverse events was determined using VigiBase, computed as Empirical Bayes Geometric Mean (EBGM) with 90% confidence interval for two customized terms, 'overall liver injury' and 'ALF'. EBGM of >or=2 was considered a disproportional increase in reporting frequency. The identified drugs were then characterized in terms of regional divergence, published case reports, serious regulatory actions, and reporting frequency of 'overall liver injury' and 'ALF' calculated from VigiBase. DATA SYNTHESIS After excluding herbs, supplements and alternative medicines, a total of 385 individual drugs were identified; 319 drugs were identified in the three DILI registries, 107 from the six ALF registries (or studies) and 47 drugs that were subjected to suspension or withdrawal in the US or Europe due to their hepatotoxicity. The identified drugs varied significantly between Spain, the US and Sweden. Of the 319 drugs identified in the DILI registries of adjudicated cases, 93.4% were found in published case reports, 1.9% were suspended or withdrawn due to hepatotoxicity and 25.7% were also identified in the ALF registries/studies. In VigiBase, 30.4% of the 319 drugs were associated with disproportionally higher reporting frequency of 'overall liver injury' and 83.1% were associated with at least one reported case of ALF. CONCLUSIONS This newly developed list of drugs associated with hepatotoxicity and the multifaceted analysis on hepatotoxicity will aid in causality assessment and clinical diagnosis of DILI and will provide a basis for further characterization of hepatotoxicity.

Tumor necrosis-like weak inducer of apoptosis as a proinflammatory cytokine in human adipocyte cells: up-regulation in severe obesity is mediated by inflammation but not hypoxia.

CONTEXT Adipose tissue hypoxia and endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress may link the presence of chronic inflammation and macrophage infiltration in severely obese subjects. We previously reported the up-regulation of TNF-like weak inducer of apoptosis (TWEAK)/fibroblast growth factor-inducible 14 (Fn14) axis in adipose tissue of severely obese type 2 diabetic subjects. OBJECTIVES The objective of the study was to examine TWEAK and Fn14 adipose tissue expression in obesity, severe obesity, and type 2 diabetes in relation to hypoxia and ER stress. DESIGN In the obesity study, 19 lean, 28 overweight, and 15 obese nondiabetic subjects were studied. In the severe obesity study, 23 severely obese and 35 control subjects were studied. In the type 2 diabetes study, 11 type 2 diabetic and 36 control subjects were studied. The expression levels of the following genes were analyzed in paired samples of sc and visceral adipose tissue: Fn14, TWEAK, VISFATIN, HYOU1, FIAF, HIF-1a, VEGF, GLUT-1, GRP78, and XBP-1. The effect of hypoxia, inflammation, and ER stress on the expression of TWEAK and Fn14 was examined in human adipocyte and macrophage cell lines. RESULTS Up-regulation of TWEAK/Fn14 and hypoxia and ER stress surrogate gene expression was observed in sc and visceral adipose tissue only in our severely obese cohort. Hypoxia modulates TWEAK or Fn14 expression in neither adipocytes nor macrophages. On the contrary, inflammation up-regulated TWEAK in macrophages and Fn14 expression in adipocytes. Moreover, TWEAK had a proinflammatory effect in adipocytes mediated by the nuclear factor-kappaB and ERK but not JNK signaling pathways. CONCLUSIONS Our data suggest that TWEAK acts as a pro-inflammatory cytokine in the adipose tissue and that inflammation, but not hypoxia, may be behind its up-regulation in severe obesity.

Tea consumption and incidence of type 2 diabetes in Europe: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study.

BACKGROUND In previous meta-analyses, tea consumption has been associated with lower incidence of type 2 diabetes. It is unclear, however, if tea is associated inversely over the entire range of intake. Therefore, we investigated the association between tea consumption and incidence of type 2 diabetes in a European population. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS The EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 26 centers in 8 European countries and consists of a total of 12,403 incident type 2 diabetes cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,835 individuals from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. Country-specific Hazard Ratios (HR) for incidence of type 2 diabetes were obtained after adjustment for lifestyle and dietary factors using a Cox regression adapted for a case-cohort design. Subsequently, country-specific HR were combined using a random effects meta-analysis. Tea consumption was studied as categorical variable (0, >0-<1, 1-<4, ≥ 4 cups/day). The dose-response of the association was further explored by restricted cubic spline regression. Country specific medians of tea consumption ranged from 0 cups/day in Spain to 4 cups/day in United Kingdom. Tea consumption was associated inversely with incidence of type 2 diabetes; the HR was 0.84 [95%CI 0.71, 1.00] when participants who drank ≥ 4 cups of tea per day were compared with non-drinkers (p(linear trend) = 0.04). Incidence of type 2 diabetes already tended to be lower with tea consumption of 1-<4 cups/day (HR = 0.93 [95%CI 0.81, 1.05]). Spline regression did not suggest a non-linear association (p(non-linearity) = 0.20). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE A linear inverse association was observed between tea consumption and incidence of type 2 diabetes. People who drink at least 4 cups of tea per day may have a 16% lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes than non-tea drinkers.

A combined approach for the assessment of cell viability and cell functionality of human fibrochondrocytes for use in tissue engineering.

Temporo-mandibular joint disc disorders are highly prevalent in adult populations. Autologous chondrocyte implantation is a well-established method for the treatment of several chondral defects. However, very few studies have been carried out using human fibrous chondrocytes from the temporo-mandibular joint (TMJ). One of the main drawbacks associated to chondrocyte cell culture is the possibility that chondrocyte cells kept in culture tend to de-differentiate and to lose cell viability under in in-vitro conditions. In this work, we have isolated human temporo-mandibular joint fibrochondrocytes (TMJF) from human disc and we have used a highly-sensitive technique to determine cell viability, cell proliferation and gene expression of nine consecutive cell passages to determine the most appropriate cell passage for use in tissue engineering and future clinical use. Our results revealed that the most potentially viable and functional cell passages were P5-P6, in which an adequate equilibrium between cell viability and the capability to synthesize all major extracellular matrix components exists. The combined action of pro-apoptotic (TRAF5, PHLDA1) and anti-apoptotic genes (SON, HTT, FAIM2) may explain the differential cell viability levels that we found in this study. These results suggest that TMJF should be used at P5-P6 for cell therapy protocols.

Lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus-associated meningitis, southern Spain.

Lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) was detected in 2 patients with acute meningitis in southern Spain within a 3-year period. Although the prevalence of LCMV infection was low (2 [1.3%] of 159 meningitis patients), it represents 2.9% of all pathogens detected. LCMV is a noteworthy agent of neurologic illness in immunocompetent persons.

Social inequalities and mortality in Europe-results from a large multi-national cohort

BACKGROUND Socio-economic inequalities in mortality are observed at the country level in both North America and Europe. The purpose of this work is to investigate the contribution of specific risk factors to social inequalities in cause-specific mortality using a large multi-country cohort of Europeans. METHODS A total of 3,456,689 person/years follow-up of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) was analysed. Educational level of subjects coming from 9 European countries was recorded as proxy for socio-economic status (SES). Cox proportional hazard model's with a step-wise inclusion of explanatory variables were used to explore the association between SES and mortality; a Relative Index of Inequality (RII) was calculated as measure of relative inequality. RESULTS Total mortality among men with the highest education level is reduced by 43% compared to men with the lowest (HR 0.57, 95% C.I. 0.52-0.61); among women by 29% (HR 0.71, 95% C.I. 0.64-0.78). The risk reduction was attenuated by 7% in men and 3% in women by the introduction of smoking and to a lesser extent (2% in men and 3% in women) by introducing body mass index and additional explanatory variables (alcohol consumption, leisure physical activity, fruit and vegetable intake) (3% in men and 5% in women). Social inequalities were highly statistically significant for all causes of death examined in men. In women, social inequalities were less strong, but statistically significant for all causes of death except for cancer-related mortality and injuries. DISCUSSION In this European study, substantial social inequalities in mortality among European men and women which cannot be fully explained away by accounting for known common risk factors for chronic diseases are reported.

A multicenter study confirms CD226 gene association with systemic sclerosis-related pulmonary fibrosis.

INTRODUCTION CD226 genetic variants have been associated with a number of autoimmune diseases and recently with systemic sclerosis (SSc). The aim of this study was to test the influence of CD226 loci in SSc susceptibility, clinical phenotypes and autoantibody status in a large multicenter European population. METHODS A total of seven European populations of Caucasian ancestry were included, comprising 2,131 patients with SSc and 3,966 healthy controls. Three CD226 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), rs763361, rs3479968 and rs727088, were genotyped using Taqman 5'allelic discrimination assays. RESULTS Pooled analyses showed no evidence of association of the three SNPs, neither with the global disease nor with the analyzed subphenotypes. However, haplotype block analysis revealed a significant association for the TCG haplotype (SNP order: rs763361, rs34794968, rs727088) with lung fibrosis positive patients (PBonf = 3.18E-02 OR 1.27 (1.05 to 1.54)). CONCLUSION Our data suggest that the tested genetic variants do not individually influence SSc susceptibility but a CD226 three-variant haplotype is related with genetic predisposition to SSc-related pulmonary fibrosis.

The association between dietary energy density and type 2 diabetes in Europe: results from the EPIC-InterAct Study

BACKGROUND Observational studies implicate higher dietary energy density (DED) as a potential risk factor for weight gain and obesity. It has been hypothesized that DED may also be associated with risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but limited evidence exists. Therefore, we investigated the association between DED and risk of T2D in a large prospective study with heterogeneity of dietary intake. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS A case-cohort study was nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC) study of 340,234 participants contributing 3.99 million person years of follow-up, identifying 12,403 incident diabetes cases and a random subcohort of 16,835 individuals from 8 European countries. DED was calculated as energy (kcal) from foods (except beverages) divided by the weight (gram) of foods estimated from dietary questionnaires. Prentice-weighted Cox proportional hazard regression models were fitted by country. Risk estimates were pooled by random effects meta-analysis and heterogeneity was evaluated. Estimated mean (sd) DED was 1.5 (0.3) kcal/g among cases and subcohort members, varying across countries (range 1.4-1.7 kcal/g). After adjustment for age, sex, smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, energy intake from beverages and misreporting of dietary intake, no association was observed between DED and T2D (HR 1.02 (95% CI: 0.93-1.13), which was consistent across countries (I(2) = 2.9%). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE In this large European case-cohort study no association between DED of solid and semi-solid foods and risk of T2D was observed. However, despite the fact that there currently is no conclusive evidence for an association between DED and T2DM risk, choosing low energy dense foods should be promoted as they support current WHO recommendations to prevent chronic diseases.