How well does the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System predict blocking?

Forecasting atmospheric blocking is one of the main problems facing medium-range weather forecasters in the extratropics. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) provides an excellent basis for medium-range forecasting as it provides a number of different possible realizations of the meteorological future. This ensemble of forecasts attempts to account for uncertainties in both the initial conditions and the model formulation. Since 18 July 2000, routine output from the EPS has included the field of potential temperature on the potential vorticity (PV) D 2 PV units (PVU) surface, the dynamical tropopause. This has enabled the objective identification of blocking using an index based on the reversal of the meridional potential-temperature gradient. A year of EPS probability forecasts of Euro-Atlantic and Pacific blocking have been produced and are assessed in this paper, concentrating on the Euro-Atlantic sector. Standard verification techniques such as Brier scores, Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and reliability diagrams are used. It is shown that Euro-Atlantic sector-blocking forecasts are skilful relative to climatology out to 10 days, and are more skilful than the deterministic control forecast at all lead times. The EPS is also more skilful than a probabilistic version of this deterministic forecast, though the difference is smaller. In addition, it is shown that the onset of a sector-blocking episode is less well predicted than its decay. As the lead time increases, the probability forecasts tend towards a model climatology with slightly less blocking than is seen in the real atmosphere. This small under-forecasting bias in the blocking forecasts is possibly related to a westerly bias in the ECMWF model. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society

Effects of cultural system (organic and conventional) on growth, photosynthesis and yield components of sweet corn (zea mays L.) under semi-arid environment

Organic sweet maize consists of a new industrial crop product. Field experiment was conducted to determine the effects of cultural systems on growth, photosynthesis and yield components of sweet maize crop (Zea mays L. F-1 hybrid 'Midas'). A randomized complete block design was employed with four replicates per treatment (organic fertilization: cow manure (5, 10 and 20 t ha(-1)), poultry manure (5, 10 and 20 t ha(-1)) and barley mulch (5, 10 and 20 t ha(-1)), synthetic fertilizer (240 kg N ha(-1)): 21-0-0 and control). The lowest dry weight, height and leaf area index and sod organic matter were measured in the control treatment. Organic matter content was proportionate to the amount of manure applied. The control plots had the lowest yield (1593 kg ha(-1)) and the double rate cow manure plots the had,greatest one. (6104 kg ha(-1)). High correlation between sweet corn yield and organic matter was registered. Moreover, the lowest values of 1000-grain weight were obtained with control plot. The fertilizer plot gave values which were similar to the full rate cow manure treatment. The photosynthetic race of the untreated control was significantly lower than that of the other treatments. The phorosynthetic rate increased as poultry manure and barley mulch ram decreased and as cow manure increased. Furthermore the untreated control had the lowest stomatal conductance and chlorophyll content. Our results indicated that sweet corn growth and yield in the organic plots was significantly higher than those in the conventional plots.

Electrochemical determination of plant-derived leuco-indigo after chemical reduction by glucose

Electrochemical determination of redox active dye species is demonstrated in indigo samples contaminated with high levels of organic and inorganic impurities. The use of a hydrodynamic electrode system based on a vibrating probe (250 Hz, 200 mu m lateral amplitude) allows time-independent diffusion controlled signals to be enhanced and reliable concentration data to be obtained under steady state conditions at relatively fast scan rates up to 4 V s-1In this work the indigo content of a complex plant-derived indigo sample (dye content typically 30%) is determined after indigo is reduced by addition of glucose in aqueous 0.2 M NaOH. The soluble leuco-indigo is measured by its oxidation response at a vibrating electrode. The vibrating electrode, which consisted of a laterally vibrating 500 mu m diameter gold disc, is calibrated with Fe(CN)(6) 3-/4- in 0.1 M KCl and employed for indigo determination at 55, 65, and 75 C in 0.2 M NaOH. Determinations of the indigo content of 25 different samples of plant-derived indigo are compared with those obtained by conventional spectrophotometry. This comparison suggests a significant improvement by the electrochemical method, which appears to be less sensitive to impurities.

Prebiotics and bowel cancer

Bowel cancer is a growing malignancy, with more than a million annual cases reported worldwide. It has been suggested that there is microbial involvement in onset of the disease and that an altered composition has previously been observed in those suffering from the malignancy, compared to healthy counterparts. The use of prebiotic functional foods to modify the colonic microflora may provide a method of reducing genotoxic potential within the colon, whilst offering-Protective strategies in the form of metabolites such as butyrate. The following review highlights some of the studies that demonstrate the potentia role for prebiotics as protective factors against bowel cancer.

Studying the Human Gut Microbiota in the Trans-Omics Era - Focus on Metagenomics and Metabonomics

The human gut microbiota comprises a diverse microbial consortium closely co-evolved with the human genome and diet. The importance of the gut microbiota in regulating human health and disease has however been largely overlooked due to the inaccessibility of the intestinal habitat, the complexity of the gut microbiota itself and the fact that many of its members resist cultivation and are in fact new to science. However, with the emergence of 16S rRNA molecular tools and "post-genomics" high resolution technologies for examining microorganisms as they occur in nature without the need for prior laboratory culture, this limited view of the gut microbiota is rapidly changing. This review will discuss the application of molecular microbiological tools to study the human gut microbiota in a culture independent manner. Genomics or metagenomics approaches have a tremendous capability to generate compositional data and to measure the metabolic potential encoded by the combined genomes of the gut microbiota. Another post-genomics approach, metabonomics, has the capacity to measure the metabolic kinetic or flux of metabolites through an ecosystem at a particular point in time or over a time course. Metabonomics thus derives data on the function of the gut microbiota in situ and how it responds to different environmental stimuli e.g. substrates like prebiotics, antibiotics and other drugs and in response to disease. Recently these two culture independent, high resolution approaches have been combined into a single "transgenomic" approach which allows correlation of changes in metabolite profiles within human biofluids with microbiota compositional metagenomic data. Such approaches are providing novel insight into the composition, function and evolution of our gut microbiota.