Linking physiological and architectural models of cotton

Despite the strong influence of plant architecture on crop yield, most crop models either ignore it or deal with it in a very rudimentary way. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of linking a model that simulates the morphogenesis and resultant architecture of individual cotton plants with a crop model that simulates the effects of environmental factors on critical physiological processes and resulting yield in cotton. First the varietal parameters of the models were made concordant. Then routines were developed to allocate the flower buds produced each day by the crop model amongst the potential positions generated by the architectural model. This allocation is done according to a set of heuristic rules. The final weight of individual bolls and the shedding of buds and fruit caused by water, N, and C stresses are processed in a similar manner. Observations of the positions of harvestable fruits, both within and between plants, made under a variety of agronomic conditions that had resulted in a broad range of plant architectures were compared to those predicted by the model with the same environmental inputs. As illustrated by comparisons of plant maps, the linked models performed reasonably well, though performance of the fruiting point allocation and shedding algorithms could probably be improved by further analysis of the spatial relationships of retained fruit. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrable generalized spin ladder models based on the SU(1|3) and SU(3|1) algebras

We present two integrable spin ladder models which possess a general free parameter besides the rung coupling J. The models are exactly solvable by means of the Bethe ansatz method and we present the Bethe ansatz equations. We analyze the elementary excitations of the models which reveal the existence of a gap for both models that depends on the free parameter. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

Fatty acid binding protein is a major determinant of hepatic pharmacokinetics of palmitate and its metabolites

Disposition kinetics of [H-3] palmitate and its low-molecular-weight metabolites in perfused rat livers were studied using the multiple-indicator dilution technique, a selective assay for [H-3] palmitate and its low-molecular-weight metabolites, and several physiologically based pharmacokinetic models. The level of liver fatty acid binding protein (L-FABP), other intrahepatic binding proteins (microsomal protein, albumin, and glutathione S-transferase) and the outflow profiles of [H-3] palmitate and metabolites were measured in four experimentalgroups of rats: 1) males; 2) clofibrate-treated males; 3) females; and 4) pregnant females. A slow-diffusion/bound model was found to better describe the hepatic disposition of unchanged [H-3] palmitate than other pharmacokinetic models. The L-FABP levels followed the order: pregnant female > clofibrate-treated male > female > male. Levels of other intrahepatic proteins did not differ significantly. The hepatic extraction ratio and mean transit time for unchanged palmitate, as well as the production of low-molecular-weight metabolites of palmitate and their retention in the liver, increased with increasing L-FABP levels. Palmitate metabolic clearance, permeability-surface area product, retention of palmitate by the liver, and cytoplasmic diffusion constant for unchanged [H-3] palmitate also increased with increasing L-FABP levels. It is concluded that the variability in hepatic pharmacokinetics of unchanged [H-3] palmitate and its low-molecular-weight metabolites in perfused rat livers is related to levels of L-FABP and not those of other intrahepatic proteins.

An approach to verifying and debugging simulation models governed by ordinary differential equations: Part 1. Methodology for residual generation

For dynamic simulations to be credible, verification of the computer code must be an integral part of the modelling process. This two-part paper describes a novel approach to verification through program testing and debugging. In Part 1, a methodology is presented for detecting and isolating coding errors using back-to-back testing. Residuals are generated by comparing the output of two independent implementations, in response to identical inputs. The key feature of the methodology is that a specially modified observer is created using one of the implementations, so as to impose an error-dependent structure on these residuals. Each error can be associated with a fixed and known subspace, permitting errors to be isolated to specific equations in the code. It is shown that the geometric properties extend to multiple errors in either one of the two implementations. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

An approach to verifying and debugging simulation models governed by ordinary differential equations: Part 2. Residuals analysis and a case study

In Part 1 of this paper a methodology for back-to-back testing of simulation software was described. Residuals with error-dependent geometric properties were generated. A set of potential coding errors was enumerated, along with a corresponding set of feature matrices, which describe the geometric properties imposed on the residuals by each of the errors. In this part of the paper, an algorithm is developed to isolate the coding errors present by analysing the residuals. A set of errors is isolated when the subspace spanned by their combined feature matrices corresponds to that of the residuals. Individual feature matrices are compared to the residuals and classified as 'definite', 'possible' or 'impossible'. The status of 'possible' errors is resolved using a dynamic subset testing algorithm. To demonstrate and validate the testing methodology presented in Part 1 and the isolation algorithm presented in Part 2, a case study is presented using a model for biological wastewater treatment. Both single and simultaneous errors that are deliberately introduced into the simulation code are correctly detected and isolated. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Análise espacial do padrão de introdução e disseminação da dengue nos municípios do Espírito Santo

O número de municípios infestados pelo Aedes aegypti no Estado do Espírito Santo vem aumentando gradativamente, levando a altas taxas de incidência de dengue ao longo dos anos. Apesar das tentativas de combate à doença, esta se tornou uma das maiores preocupações na saúde pública do Estado. Este estudo se propõe a descrever a dinâmica da expansão da doença no Estado a partir da associação entre variáveis ambientais e populacionais, utilizando dados operacionalizados por meio de técnicas de geoprocessamento. O estudo utilizou como fonte de dados a infestação pelo mosquito vetor e o coeficiente de incidência da doença, as distâncias rodoviárias intermunicipais do Estado, a altitude dos municípios e as variáveis geoclimáticas (temperatura e suficiência de água), incorporadas a uma ferramenta operacional, as Unidades Naturais do Espírito Santo (UNES), representadas em um único mapa operacionalizado em Sistema de Informação Geográfica (SIG), obtido a partir do Sistema Integrado de Bases Georreferenciadas do Estado do Espírito Santo. Para análise dos dados, foi realizada a Regressão de Poisson para os dados de incidência de dengue e Regressão Logística para os de infestação pelo vetor. Em seguida, os dados de infestação pelo mosquito e incidência de dengue foram georreferenciados, utilizando como ferramenta operacional o SIG ArcGIS versão 9.2. Observou-se que a pluviosidade é um fator que contribui para o surgimento de mosquito em áreas não infestadas. Altas temperaturas contribuem para um alto coeficiente de incidência de dengue nos municípios capixabas. A variável distância em relação a municípios populosos é um fator de proteção para a incidência da doença. A grande variabilidade encontrada nos dados, que não é explicada pelas variáveis utilizadas no modelo para incidência da doença, reforça a premissa de que a dengue é condicionada pela interação dinâmica entre muitas variáveis que o estudo não abordou. A espacialização dos dados de infestação pelo mosquito e incidência de dengue e as Zonas Naturais do ES permitiu a visualização da influência das variáveis estatisticamente significantes nos modelos utilizados no padrão da introdução e disseminação da doença no Estado.

Variabilidade espacial do estado nutricional do cafeeiro conilon utilizando índice DRIS

A combinação da agricultura de precisão e do Sistema Integrado de Recomendação Foliar (DRIS) possibilita monitorar espacialmente o balanço nutricional dos cafezais para fornecer recomendações de adubação mais equilibradas e mais ajustadas economicamente. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a variabilidade espacial do estado nutricional do cafeeiro conilon, utilizando o Índice de Balanço Nutricional (IBN) e sua relação com a produtividade. A produtividade das plantas em cada ponto amostral foi determinada e construiu-se o seu mapa considerando a variabilidade espacial; determinou-se o Índice de Equilíbrio Nutricional (IBN) das plantas em cada ponto amostral e construiu-se o seu mapa; e utilizou-se a análise de componentes principais (ACP) para estimar o IBN do cafeeiro por cokrigagem. Os dados do cafeeiro conilon foram coletados em fazenda experimental, no município de Cachoeiro de Itapemirim-ES. O IBN do cafeeiro e a sua produtividade foram analisados por meio de geoestatística, com base nos modelos e parâmetros dos semivariogramas, utilizando o método de interpolação krigagem ordinária para estimar valores para locais não amostrados. O índice de Balanço Nutricional da lavoura do cafeeiro conilon apresentou dependência espacial, porém não apresentou correlação linear e nem espacial com a produtividade. A lavoura em estudo se encontra em desequilíbrio nutricional, sendo que entre os macronutrientes, o Potássio foi o que apresentou maior desequilíbrio na área, entre os micronutrientes, o Zinco e o Ferro foram os que apresentaram menores concentrações nas folhas. A confecção dos mapas possibilitou a distinção de regiões com maior e menor desequilíbrio nutricional e produtividade, o que possibilita adotar o manejo de forma diferenciada e localizada. A análise multivariada baseada em componentes principais fornece componentes com alta correlação com as variáveis originais P, Ca, Zn , Cu, K e B. A cokrigagem utilizando as componentes principais permite estimar o IBN e a produtividade da área.

Variabilidade espacial e temporal de atributos químicos do solo em povoamento de eucalipto

Nos anos mais recentes, observa-se aumento na adoção das técnicas de silvicultura de precisão em florestas plantadas no Brasil. Os plantios de eucalipto ocorrem preferencialmente em áreas com baixa fertilidade de solo e consequentemente baixa produtividade. Logo, para otimizar ao máximo a produção, é necessário saber o quanto essa cultura pode produzir em cada local (sítio). Objetivou-se aplicar uma metodologia que utiliza técnicas de estatística, geoestatística e geoprocessamento, no mapeamento da variabilidade espacial e temporal de atributos químicos do solo cultivado com eucalipto, em área de 10,09 ha, situada no sul do estado do Espírito Santo. Os atributos químicos da fertilidade do solo estudados foram: fósforo (P), potássio (K), cálcio (Ca) e magnésio (Mg), no ano da implantação do povoamento do eucalipto, em 2008, e três anos após, em 2011. O solo foi amostrado em duas profundidades, 0-0,2 m e 0,2-0,4 m, nos 94 pontos de uma malha regular, com extensão de 33 x 33 m. Os dados foram analisados pela estatística descritiva e, em seguida, pela geoestatística, por meio do ajuste de semivariogramas. Diferentes métodos de interpolação foram testados para produzir mapas temáticos mais precisos e facilitar as operações algébricas utilizadas. Com o auxílio de índices quantitativos, realizou-se uma análise geral da fertilidade do solo, por meio da álgebra de mapas. A metodologia utilizada neste estudo possibilitou mapear a variabilidade espacial e temporal de atributos químicos do solo. A análise variográfica mostrou que todos os atributos estudados apresentaram-se estruturados espacialmente, exceto para o atributo P, no Ano Zero (camada 0-0,2 m) e no Ano Três (ambas as camadas). Os melhores métodos de interpolação para o mapeamento de cada atributo químico do solo foram identificados com a ajuda gráfica do Diagrama de Taylor. Mereceram destaque, os modelos esférico e exponencial nas interpolações para a maioria dos atributos químicos do solo avaliados. Apesar de a variação espacial e temporal dos atributos estudados apresentar-se, em média, com pequena variação negativa, a metodologia usada mostrou variações positivas na fertilidade do solo em várias partes da área de estudo. Além disso, os resultados demonstram que os efeitos observados são majoritariamente em função da cultura, uma vez que não foram coletadas amostras de solo em locais adubados. A produtividade do sítio florestal apresentou-se com tendências semelhantes às variações ocorridas na fertilidade do solo, exceto para o magnésio, que se mostrou com tendências espaciais para suporte de elevadas produtividades, de até 50 m3 ha-1 ano-1. Além de mostrar claramente as tendências observadas para as variações na fertilidade do solo, a metodologia utilizada confirma um caminho operacional acessível para empresas e produtores florestais para o manejo nutricional em florestas plantadas. O uso dos mapas facilita a mobilização de recursos para melhorar a aplicação de fertilizantes e corretivos necessários.

Variability in leaf rust susceptibility among peach cultivars

The aim of this work was to estimate the susceptibility of thirty-six peach cultivars to leaf rust caused by Tranzschelia discolor f. sp. persica. The incidence and severity of the disease as well as defoliation in peach trees of an experimental orchard of Parana Federal University of Technology, Campus Dois Vizinhos were evaluated on the growing seasons 2004/2005 and 2005/2006. Immunity to this disease was not observed in the studied cultivars. There was difference in leaf rust intensity depending on the growing season conditions. Cultivars 'Pilcha', 'Sinuelo', 'Chirua', 'Sulina', 'Eldorado' and 'Pampeano' showed tolerance to leaf rust, whereas cultivars 'Vila Nova', 'Fla 1372', 'Coral 2', 'Chimarrita', 'Della Nona', 'BR-1 ' and 'Guaiaca' showed high susceptibility.

Measuring fund performance using multi-factor models: evidence for the Portuguese market

This paper examines the performance of Portuguese equity funds investing in the domestic and in the European Union market, using several unconditional and conditional multi-factor models. In terms of overall performance, we find that National funds are neutral performers, while European Union funds under-perform the market significantly. These results do not seem to be a consequence of management fees. Overall, our findings are supportive of the robustness of conditional multi-factor models. In fact, Portuguese equity funds seem to be relatively more exposed to smallcaps and more value-oriented. Also, they present strong evidence of time-varying betas and, in the case of the European Union funds, of time-varying alphas too. Finally, in terms of market timing, our tests suggest that mutual fund managers in our sample do not exhibit any market timing abilities. Nevertheless, we find some evidence of timevarying conditional market timing abilities but only at the individual fund level.

Models for the Reverse Engineering of Java/Swing Applications

Abstract. Interest in design and development of graphical user interface (GUIs) is growing in the last few years. However, correctness of GUI's code is essential to the correct execution of the overall software. Models can help in the evaluation of interactive applications by allowing designers to concentrate on its more important aspects. This paper describes our approach to reverse engineering abstract GUI models directly from the Java/Swing code.

Color Models and Illumination Changes

Color model representation allows characterizing in a quantitative manner, any defined color spectrum of visible light, i.e. with a wavelength between 400nm and 700nm. To accomplish that, each model, or color space, is associated with a function that allows mapping the spectral power distribution of the visible electromagnetic radiation, in a space defined by a set of discrete values that quantify the color components composing the model. Some color spaces are sensitive to changes in lighting conditions. Others assure the preservation of certain chromatic features, remaining immune to these changes. Therefore, it becomes necessary to identify the strengths and weaknesses of each model in order to justify the adoption of color spaces in image processing and analysis techniques. This chapter will address the topic of digital imaging, main standards and formats. Next we will set the mathematical model of the image acquisition sensor response, which enables assessment of the various color spaces, with the aim of determining their invariance to illumination changes.

Extracting and verifying coordination models from source code

Current software development relies increasingly on non-trivial coordination logic for com- bining autonomous services often running on di erent platforms. As a rule, however, in typical non-trivial software systems, such a coordination layer is strongly weaved within the application at source code level. Therefore, its precise identi cation becomes a major methodological (and technical) problem which cannot be overestimated along any program understanding or refactoring process. Open access to source code, as granted in OSS certi cation, provides an opportunity for the devel- opment of methods and technologies to extract, from source code, the relevant coordination information. This paper is a step in this direction, combining a number of program analysis techniques to automatically recover coordination information from legacy code. Such information is then expressed as a model in Orc, a general purpose orchestration language