On the invariants of coloured Petri Nets

In this paper, we develop a theorem that enables computation of the place invariants of the union of a finite collection of coloured Petri Nets when the individual nets satisfy certain conditions and their invariants are known. We consider the illustrative examples of the Readers-Writers problem, a resource sharing system, and a network of databases and show how this theorem is a valuable tool in the analysis of concurrent systems.

Split-Freedom And Mvd-Intersection - A New Characterization Of Multivalued Dependencies Having Conflict-Free Covers

Sets of multivalued dependencies (MVDs) having conflict-free covers are important to the theory and design of relational databases [2,12,15,16]. Their desirable properties motivate the problem of testing a set M of MVDs for the existence of a confiict-free cover. In [8] Goodman and Tay have proposed an approach based on the possible equivalence of M to a single (acyclic) join dependency (JD). We remark that their characterization does not lend an insight into the nature of such sets of MVDs. Here, we use notions that are intrinsic to MVDs to develop a new characterization. Our approach proceeds in two stages. In the first stage, we use the notion of “split-free” sets of MVDs and obtain a characterization of sets M of MVDs having split-free covers. In the second, we use the notion of “intersection” of MVDs to arrive at a necessary and sufficient condition for a split-free set of MVDs to be conflict-free. Based on our characterizations, we also give polynomial-time algorithms for testing whether M has split-free and conflict-free covers. The highlight of our approach is the clear insight it provides into the nature of sets of MVDs having conflict-free covers. Less emphasis is given in this paper to the actual efficiency of the algorthms. Finally, as a bonus, we derive a desirable property of split-free sets of MVDs,thereby showing that they are interesting in their own right.

Molecular characterisation, pathogenesis and fungicide sensitivity of Pythium spp. from table beet (Beta vulgaris var. vulgaris) grown in the Lockyer Valley, Queensland

Table beet production in the Lockyer Valley of south-eastern Queensland is known to be adversely affected by soilborne root disease from infection by Pythium spp. However, little is known regarding the species or genotypes that are the causal agents of both pre- and post-emergence damping off. Based on RFLP analysis with HhaI, HinfI and MboI of the PCR amplified ITS region DNA from soil and diseased plant samples, the majority of 130 Pythium isolates could be grouped into three genotypes, designated LVP A, LVP B and LVP C. These groups comprised 43, 41 and 7% of all isolates, respectively. Deoxyribonucleic acid sequence analysis of the ITS region indicated that LVP A was a strain of Pythium aphanidermatum, with greater than 99% similarity to the corresponding P. aphanidermatum sequences from the publicly accessible databases. The DNA sequences from LVP B and LVP C were most closely related to P. ultimum and P. dissotocum, respectively. Lower frequencies of other distinct isolates with unique RFLP patterns were also obtained with high levels of similarity (>97%) to P. heterothallicum, P. periplocum and genotypes of P. ultimum other than LVP B. Inoculation trials of 1- and 4-week-old beet seedlings indicated that compared with isolates of the LVP B genotype, a higher frequency of LVP A isolates caused disease. Isolates with the LVP A, LVP B and LVP C genotypes were highly sensitive to the fungicide Ridomil MZ, which suppressed radial growth on V8 agar between approximately four and thirty fold at 5 μg/mL metalaxyl and 40 μg/mL mancozeb, a concentration far lower than the recommended field application rate.

Maximising the contribution of native-range studies towards the identification and prioritisation of weed biocontrol agents

Effective study in the native range to identify potential agents underpins all efforts in classical biological control of weeds. Good agents that demonstrate both a high degree of host specificity and the potential to be damaging are a very limited resource and must therefore be carefully studied and considered. The overseas component is often operationally difficult and expensive but can contribute considerably more than a list of herbivores attacking a particular target. While the principles underlying this foreign component have been understood for some time, recently developed technologies and methods can make very significant contributions to foreign studies. Molecular and genetic characterisations of both target weed and agent organism can be increasingly employed to more accurately define the identity and phylogeny of them. Climate matching and modelling software is now available and can be utilised to better select agents for particular regions of concern. Relational databases can store collection information for analysis and future enquiry while quantification of sampling effort, employment of statistical survey methods and analysis by techniques such as rarefaction curves contribute to efficient and effective searching. Obtaining good and timely identifications for discovered agent organisms is perhaps the most serious issue confronting the modern explorer. The diminishing numbers of specialist taxonomists employed at the major museums while international and national protocols demand higher standards of identity exacerbates the issue. Genetic barcoding may provide a very useful tool to overcome this problem. Native-range work also offers under-exploited opportunities for contributing towards predicting safety, abundance and efficacy of potential agents in their target environment.

Systematic literature review: Research on Supported Playgroups

Overview This review of research conducted with supported playgroups was prepared for the Queensland Department of Education, Training and Employment (DETE). The report provides a synthesis of the research on the effectiveness of supported playgroups to improve child, parent, and community outcomes and to identify key features of supported playgroups that support effective outcomes. Supported playgroups are community-based services that provide a low intensity parenting intervention, through regular group sessions for parent-child dyads. Supported playgroups target vulnerable families who may benefit from parenting support. Supported playgroups have common goals to enhance children’s early learning and parental wellbeing. Method A search strategy was devised to identify research studies, nationally and internationally, that involved parent-child group programs for families with young children, delivered under the leadership of an employed facilitator. Academic databases and other data sources were explored for studies conducted in the period from 2004 to 2014. Summary descriptions of the research studies were developed; assessment of research methodologies was made; research evidence on the effectiveness of supported playgroups to improve child, parent, and community outcomes was identified; and comparative analyses of the implementation features of supported playgroups were completed. Findings The search strategy identified 34 research publications, reporting on 29 different programs. Twenty-six of the studies report on research conducted in Australia and eight reported on research conducted in other countries, including the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States. Three clusters of playgroups were identified: Category 1 - Standard supported playgroups; Category 2 - Mobile playgroups; Category 3 – Supported playgroups with specific interventions. The research studies identified encompassed experimental and non-experimental research designs. The studies of standard supported playgroups and mobile playgroups were most often qualitative studies and modest in scale, in terms of the number of research participants. Experimental and quasi-experimental research designs characterised the studies identified in the category of supported playgroups with specific interventions. Overall, the research studies that were categorised as supported playgroups with specific interventions provided stronger evidence for effectiveness to improve parental behaviour in ways that are known to support children’s early developmental competence. Qualitative studies, including case studies and ethnographic research, documented important features of program delivery, such as the importance of facilitators’ interpersonal skills to positive experiences for families in the playgroups; as well as the important opportunities that the playgroups afforded to vulnerable families to reduce social isolation. Conclusions The potential for supported playgroups to improve a broad range of learning and psychosocial outcomes for children and parents was suggested by many of the research studies. However, the nature of the research designs employed means that it is not possible to conclude that there is strong evidence of the impact of supported playgroups on child, parent, and community outcomes. The qualitative studies did provide rich descriptions about the implementation processes of playgroups and also captured the variability in the delivery of the playgroups in terms of who participated, local contextual factors that impacted on the playgroup experiences, and the nature of the experiences of parents within the playgroups. Research methodologies need to be employed that address the limitations of the studies to date. This would provide more defensible evidence that supported playgroups have an impact over time on outcomes for children, families, and communities. Overall, this area of research remains relatively under-evaluated in terms of rigorous research designs. The identified research studies point to some promising research directions but do not yet enable strong claims to be made about the effectiveness of the standard playgroup or mobile playgroup models to impact on parenting outcomes. Data collected from interview and survey methodologies clearly identifies that supported playgroups are highly acceptable to families. Given the popularity of supported playgroups to engage families across diverse communities, and the reported high levels of satisfaction and benefits identified within many of the research studies, it is clear that the provision of supported playgroups is fulfilling an important community need by providing support to parents with young children. However, there is a need to strengthen the evidence base that supported playgroups are an effective early parenting intervention that improves outcomes for children, parents, and communities.

Development of a New Zealand database of plant virus and virus-like organisms.

The recent 8th Australasian plant virology workshop in Rotorua, New Zealand, discussed the development of a New Zealand database of plant virus and virus-like organisms. Key points of discussion included: (i) the purpose of such a database; (ii) who would benefit from the information in a database; (iii) the scope of a database and its associated collections; (iv) database information and format; and (v) potential funding of such a database. From the workshop and further research, we conclude that the preservation and verification of specimens within the collections and the development of a New Zealand database of plant virus and virus-like organisms is essential. Such a collection will help to fulfil statutory requirements in New Zealand and assist in fulfilling international obligations under the International Plant Protection Convention. Sustaining such a database will assist New Zealand virologists and statutory bodies to undertake scientifically sound research. Establishing reliable records and an interactive database will help to ensure accurate and timely diagnoses of diseases caused by plant viruses and virus-like organisms. Detection of new incursions and their diagnosis will be further enhanced by the use of such reference collections and their associated database. Connecting and associating this information to similar overseas databases would assist international collaborations and allow access to the latest taxonomic and diagnostic resources. Associated scientists working in the areas of plant breeding, export phytosanitary assurance and in the area of the conservation estate would also benefit from access to verified specimens of plant viruses and virus-like organisms. We conclude that funding of a New Zealand database of virus and virus-like organisms and its associated collections should be based partly on Crown funds, as it is a nationally significant biological resource.

A systematic review of community pharmacist therapeutic knowledge of dietary supplements

Background: Internationally, the use of dietary supplements has been growing rapidly. Patient support for pharmacist sales of nutritional and dietary supplements is also strong. The increase in demand for nutritional and dietary supplements and subsequent advice about these products, however, makes it necessary that pharmacists maintain a contemporary knowledge of the area. Aim of review: This systematic review was conducted to examine the current evidence regarding the level of the nutritional and dietary supplement knowledge of community pharmacists and their understanding of their therapeutic effects. Method: Electronic databases including Medline, Scopus, Embase, CINAHL, Scifinder and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register were searched. Studies assessing nutritional knowledge of pharmacists in community pharmacies were eligible for inclusion. All languages and study designs were considered. Study results were analysed and pharmacist knowledge scores were given out of 100 . Results: From 5594 studies identified, nine met the inclusion criteria. Each study tested pharmacist knowledge with predetermined questions calculating results as the number of questions answered correctly. These knowledge scores were converted to a percentage score for the purpose of this paper. The median knowledge score across all papers was 64%. A lack of studies assessing community pharmacist's knowledge of commonly sold vitamins and minerals was observed. Conclusions Global community pharmacist knowledge of dietary supplements appears to be poor. Community pharmacists have an professional responsibility to provide accurate health information about dietary supplements as they do for any other therapies they provide to patients. Further research including that which assesses pharmacist's therapeutic knowledge of commonly sold vitamins and minerals is suggested.

Evidence-based perspective on CP rehabilitation : Reviews on physiotherapy, physiotherapy-related motor-based interventions and orthotic devices

This thesis utilises an evidence-based approach to critically evaluate and summarize effectiveness research on physiotherapy, physiotherapy-related motor-based interventions and orthotic devices in children and adolescents with cerebral palsy (CP). It aims to assess the methodological challenges of the systematic reviews and trials, to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions in current use, and to make suggestions for future trials Methods: Systematic reviews were searched from computerized bibliographic databases up to August 2007 for physiotherapy and physiotherapy-related interventions, and up to May 2003 for orthotic devices. Two reviewers independently identified, selected, and assessed the quality of the reviews using the Overview Quality Assessment Questionnaire complemented with decision rules. From a sample of 14 randomized controlled trials (RCT) published between January 1990 and June 2003 we analysed the methods of sampling, recruitment, and comparability of groups; defined the components of a complex intervention; identified outcome measures based on the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF); analysed the clinical interpretation of score changes; and analysed trial reporting using a modified 33-item CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) checklist. The effectiveness of physiotherapy and physiotherapy-related interventions in children with diagnosed CP was evaluated in a systematic review of randomised controlled trials that were searched from computerized databases from January 1990 up to February 2007. Two reviewers independently assessed the methodological quality, extracted the data, classified the outcomes using the ICF, and considered the level of evidence according to van Tulder et al. (2003). Results: We identified 21 reviews on physiotherapy and physiotherapy-related interventions and five on orthotic devices. These reviews summarized 23 or 5 randomised controlled trials and 104 or 27 observational studies, respectively. Only six reviews were of high quality. These found some evidence supporting strength training, constraint-induced movement therapy or hippotherapy, and insufficient evidence on comprehensive interventions. Based on the original studies included in the reviews on orthotic devices we found some short-term effects of lower limb casting on passive range of movement, and of ankle-foot orthoses on equinus walk. Long term effects of lower limb orthoses have not been studied. Evidence of upper limb casting or orthoses is conflicting. In the sample of 14 RCTs, most trials used simple randomisation, complemented with matching or stratification, but only three specified the concealed allocation. Numerous studies provided sufficient details on the components of a complex intervention, but the overlap of outcome measures across studies was poor and the clinical interpretation of observed score changes was mostly missing. Almost half (48%) of the applicable CONSORT-based items (range 28 32) were reported adequately. Most reporting inadequacies were in outcome measures, sample size determination, details of the sequence generation, allocation concealment and implementation of the randomization, success of assessor blinding, recruitment and follow-up dates, intention-to-treat analysis, precision of the effect size, co-interventions, and adverse events. The systematic review identified 22 trials on eight intervention categories. Four trials were of high quality. Moderate evidence of effectiveness was established for upper extremity treatments on attained goals, active supination and developmental status, and of constraint-induced therapy on the amount and quality of hand use and new emerging behaviours. Moderate evidence of ineffectiveness was found for strength training's effect on walking speed and stride length. Conflicting evidence was found for strength training's effect on gross motor function. For the other intervention categories the evidence was limited due to the low methodological quality and the statistically insignificant results of the studies. Conclusions: The high-quality reviews provide both supportive and insufficient evidence on some physiotherapy interventions. The poor quality of most reviews calls for caution, although most reviews drew no conclusions on effectiveness due to the poor quality of the primary studies. A considerable number of RCTs of good to fair methodological and reporting quality indicate that informative and well-reported RCTs on complex interventions in children and adolescents with CP are feasible. Nevertheless, methodological improvement is needed in certain areas of the trial design and performance, and the trial authors are encouraged to follow the CONSORT criteria. Based on RCTs we established moderate evidence for some effectiveness of upper extremity training. Due to limitations in methodological quality and variations in population, interventions and outcomes, mostly limited evidence on the effectiveness of most physiotherapy interventions is available to guide clinical practice. Well-designed trials are needed, especially for focused physiotherapy interventions.

Routine Measurement of Health-Related Quality of Life in Assessing Cost-Effectiveness in Secondary Health Care

Aims: The aims of this study were 1) to identify and describe health economic studies that have used quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) based on actual measurements of patients' health-related quality of life (HRQoL); 2) to test the feasibility of routine collection of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) data as an indicator of effectiveness of secondary health care; and 3) to establish and compare the cost-utility of three large-volume surgical procedures in a real-world setting in the Helsinki University Central Hospital, a large referral hospital providing secondary and tertiary health-care services for a population of approximately 1.4 million. Patients and methods: So as to identify studies that have used QALYs as an outcome measure, a systematic search of the literature was performed using the Medline, Embase, CINAHL, SCI and Cochrane Library electronic databases. Initial screening of the identified articles involved two reviewers independently reading the abstracts; the full-text articles were also evaluated independently by two reviewers, with a third reviewer used in cases where the two reviewers could not agree a consensus on which articles should be included. The feasibility of routinely evaluating the cost-effectiveness of secondary health care was tested by setting up a system for collecting HRQoL data on approximately 4 900 patients' HRQoL before and after operative treatments performed in the hospital. The HRQoL data used as an indicator of treatment effectiveness was combined with diagnostic and financial indicators routinely collected in the hospital. To compare the cost-effectiveness of three surgical interventions, 712 patients admitted for routine operative treatment completed the 15D HRQoL questionnaire before and also 3-12 months after the operation. QALYs were calculated using the obtained utility data and expected remaining life years of the patients. Direct hospital costs were obtained from the clinical patient administration database of the hospital and a cost-utility analysis was performed from the perspective of the provider of secondary health care services. Main results: The systematic review (Study I) showed that although QALYs gained are considered an important measure of the effectiveness of health care, the number of studies in which QALYs are based on actual measurements of patients' HRQoL is still fairly limited. Of the reviewed full-text articles, only 70 reported QALYs based on actual before after measurements using a valid HRQoL instrument. Collection of simple cost-effectiveness data in secondary health care is feasible and could easily be expanded and performed on a routine basis (Study II). It allows meaningful comparisons between various treatments and provides a means for allocating limited health care resources. The cost per QALY gained was 2 770 for cervical operations and 1 740 for lumbar operations. In cases where surgery was delayed the cost per QALY was doubled (Study III). The cost per QALY ranges between subgroups in cataract surgery (Study IV). The cost per QALY gained was 5 130 for patients having both eyes operated on and 8 210 for patients with only one eye operated on during the 6-month follow-up. In patients whose first eye had been operated on previous to the study period, the mean HRQoL deteriorated after surgery, thus precluding the establishment of the cost per QALY. In arthroplasty patients (Study V) the mean cost per QALY gained in a one-year period was 6 710 for primary hip replacement, 52 270 for revision hip replacement, and 14 000 for primary knee replacement. Conclusions: Although the importance of cost-utility analyses has during recent years been stressed, there are only a limited number of studies in which the evaluation is based on patients own assessment of the treatment effectiveness. Most of the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses are based on modeling that employs expert opinion regarding the outcome of treatment, not on patient-derived assessments. Routine collection of effectiveness information from patients entering treatment in secondary health care turned out to be easy enough and did not, for instance, require additional personnel on the wards in which the study was executed. The mean patient response rate was more than 70 %, suggesting that patients were happy to participate and appreciated the fact that the hospital showed an interest in their well-being even after the actual treatment episode had ended. Spinal surgery leads to a statistically significant and clinically important improvement in HRQoL. The cost per QALY gained was reasonable, at less than half of that observed for instance for hip replacement surgery. However, prolonged waiting for an operation approximately doubled the cost per QALY gained from the surgical intervention. The mean utility gain following routine cataract surgery in a real world setting was relatively small and confined mostly to patients who had had both eyes operated on. The cost of cataract surgery per QALY gained was higher than previously reported and was associated with considerable degree of uncertainty. Hip and knee replacement both improve HRQoL. The cost per QALY gained from knee replacement is two-fold compared to hip replacement. Cost-utility results from the three studied specialties showed that there is great variation in the cost-utility of surgical interventions performed in a real-world setting even when only common, widely accepted interventions are considered. However, the cost per QALY of all the studied interventions, except for revision hip arthroplasty, was well below 50 000, this figure being sometimes cited in the literature as a threshold level for the cost-effectiveness of an intervention. Based on the present study it may be concluded that routine evaluation of the cost-utility of secondary health care is feasible and produces information essential for a rational and balanced allocation of scarce health care resources.

SF06016 Low Chill Peaches Online

The aim of this project is to bring information on low chill stonefruit varieties to a user in a clear and friendly format to aid in that decision process. Low Chill Australia see this project as high priority for its members to be competitive by growing high quality, early season peach and nectarine fruit varieties. Data will be collated from grower surveys, breeder’s descriptions and literature, and entered into an Access Database and published on the web for stonefruit growers in tropical and sub-tropical regions across Australia. Links will be available from the Low Chill Australia and Summerfruit Australia websites.

The Europeanisation of occupational health services: A study of the impact of EU policies

This study concerns Framework Directive 89/391/EEC on health and safety at work, which encouraged improvements in occupational health services (OHS) for workers in EU member states. Framework Directive 89/391/EEC originally aimed at bringing the same level of occupational health and safety to employees in both the public and private sectors in EU member states. However, the implementation of the framework directive and OHS varies widely among EU member states. Occupational health services have generally been considered an important work-related welfare benefit in EU member states. The purpose of this study was to analyse OHS within the EU context and then analyse the impact of EU policies on OHS implementation as part of the welfare state benefit. The focus is on social, health, and industrial policies within welfare state regimes as well as EU policy-making processes affecting these policies in EU member states. The research tasks were divided into four groups related to the policy, functions, targets,and actors of OHS. The questions related to policy tried to discover the role of OHS in other policies, such as health, social, and labour market policies within the EU. The questions about functions sought to describe the changes, as well as the path dependence, of OHS in EU member states after the framework directive. The questions about targets were based on the general aims of WHO and the ILO in relation to equity, solidarity, universality, and access to OHS. The questions on actors were designed to understand the variety of stakeholders interested in OHS. The actors were supranational (EU, ILO, and WHO), national (ministries, institutes, and professional organisations), and social partners (trade unions and employers organisations). The study data were collected by interviewing 92 people in 15 EU member states, including representatives of ministries, institutions, research,trade unions, employers organisations, and occupational health organisations. Other documents were collected from the Internet,databases, libraries, and conference materials for a systematic review of the policies, strategies, organisation, financing, and monitoring of OHS in EU member states. Different analytical methods were used in the data analysis. The main findings of the study can be summarised as follows. First, occupational health services is a context-dependent phenomenon, which therefore varies according to the development of the welfare state in general, and depends on each country s culture, history, economy, and politics. The views of different stakeholders in EU member states concerning the impact and possibilities of OHS to improve health vary from evidence-based opinions to the sporadic impact of OHS on occupational health. OHS as a concept is vaguely defined by the EU, whereas the ILO defines OHS content. The tasks of OHS began as preventive and protective services for workers. However, they have moved towards multidisciplinary and organisational development as well as the workplace health promotion sphere.Since 1989 OHS has developed differently in different EU member states depending on the starting position of those states, but planning and implementation are crucial phases in the process toward better OHS coverage, equity, and access. Nevertheless, the data used for the planning and legitimisation of OHS activities are mainly based on occupational health data rather than on OHS data. This makes decisions on political or policy grounds inaccurate. OHS is still an evolving concept and benefit for workers, but the Europeanisation of OHS reflects contextual changes, such as the impact of the internal market, competition, and commercialisation on OHS. Stronger cooperation and integration with health, social, and employment services would be an asset for workers, because of new epidemics, an epidemiological shift towards new risks, an ageing labour market, and changes in the labour market. Different methods and approaches are needed in order to study the results of integrated services. In the future, more detailed information will be needed about the actual impact of EU policies on OHS and decision-making processes in order to get OHS into different policies in the EU and its member states. Further results and effects of OHS processes on occupational health need to be analysed more carefully. The adoption of a variety of research strategies and a multidisciplinary approach to understand the influence of different policies on OHS in the EU and its member states would highlight the options and opportunities to improve workers occupational health. Key subject headings: Occupational health services, EU policy, policymaking,framework directive 89/391/EEC

Spatially based data delivery and recording sys-Aust Sugar Cane industry

Establish an internet platform where spatially referenced data can be viewed, entered and stored.

Recent developments in DNA evidence

DNA evidence has made a significant contribution to criminal investigations in Australia and around the world since it was widely adopted in the 1990s (Gans & Urbas 2002). The direct matching of DNA profiles, such as comparing one obtained from a crime scene with one obtained from a suspect or database, remains a widely used technique in criminal investigations. A range of new DNA profiling techniques continues to be developed and applied in criminal investigations around the world (Smith & Urbas 2012). This paper is the third in a series by the Australian Institute of Criminology (AIC) on DNA evidence. The first, published in 1990 when the technology was in its relative infancy, outlined the scientific background for DNA evidence, considered early issues such as scientific reliability and privacy and described its application in early criminal cases (Easteal & Easteal 1990). The second, published in 2002, expanded on the scientific background and discussed a significant number of Australian cases in a 12-year period, illustrating issues that had arisen in investigations, at trial and in the use of DNA in the review of convictions and acquittals (Gans & Urbas 2002). There have been some significant developments in the science and technology behind DNA evidence in the 13 years since 2002 that have important implications for law enforcement and the legal system. These are discussed through a review of relevant legal cases and the latest empirical evidence. This paper is structured in three sections. The first examines the scientific techniques and how they have been applied in police investigations, drawing on a number of recent cases to illustrate them. The second considers empirical research evaluating DNA evidence and databases and the impact DNA has on investigative and court outcomes. The final section discusses significant cases that establish legal precedent relating to DNA evidence in criminal trials where significant issues have arisen or new techniques have been applied that have not yet been widely discussed in the literature. The paper concludes by reflecting on implications for policy and practice.

Analysis of the distribution of the number of bidders in construction contract auctions

The number of bidders, N, involved in a construction procurement auction is known to have an important effect on the value of the lowest bid and the mark up applied by bidders. In practice, for example, it is important for a bidder to have a good estimate of N when bidding for a current contract. One approach, instigated by Friedman in 1956, is to make such an estimate by statistical analysis and modelling. Since then, however, finding a suitable model for N has been an enduring problem for researchers and, despite intensive research activity in the subsequent thirty years little progress has been made - due principally to the absence of new ideas and perspectives. This paper resumes the debate by checking old assumptions, providing new evidence relating to concomitant variables and proposing a new model. In doing this and in order to assure universality, a novel approach is developed and tested by using a unique set of twelve construction tender databases from four continents. This shows the new model provides a significant advancement on previous versions. Several new research questions are also posed and other approaches identified for future study.

The importance of modelling heterogeneity in complex disease: application to NIMH Schizophrenia Genetics Initiative data

As for other complex diseases, linkage analyses of schizophrenia (SZ) have produced evidence for numerous chromosomal regions, with inconsistent results reported across studies. The presence of locus heterogeneity appears likely and may reduce the power of linkage analyses if homogeneity is assumed. In addition, when multiple heterogeneous datasets are pooled, inter-sample variation in the proportion of linked families (alpha) may diminish the power of the pooled sample to detect susceptibility loci, in spite of the larger sample size obtained. We compare the significance of linkage findings obtained using allele-sharing LOD scores (LOD(exp))-which assume homogeneity-and heterogeneity LOD scores (HLOD) in European American and African American NIMH SZ families. We also pool these two samples and evaluate the relative power of the LOD(exp) and two different heterogeneity statistics. One of these (HLOD-P) estimates the heterogeneity parameter alpha only in aggregate data, while the second (HLOD-S) determines alpha separately for each sample. In separate and combined data, we show consistently improved performance of HLOD scores over LOD(exp). Notably, genome-wide significant evidence for linkage is obtained at chromosome 10p in the European American sample using a recessive HLOD score. When the two samples are combined, linkage at the 10p locus also achieves genome-wide significance under HLOD-S, but not HLOD-P. Using HLOD-S, improved evidence for linkage was also obtained for a previously reported region on chromosome 15q. In linkage analyses of complex disease, power may be maximised by routinely modelling locus heterogeneity within individual datasets, even when multiple datasets are combined to form larger samples.