888 resultados para Two-stage stochastic model
Resumo:
En la última década, distintos estudios han intentado contrastar empíricamente la existencia de una relación entre el stock de capital humanolocal y la productividad del territorio, así como la posible presencia de economías externas asociadas a aquél. El resultado común de dichos estudios ha consistido en encontrar una correlación positiva entre ambas variables Losdiversos autores no coinciden, en cambio, a la hora de explicar dicho resultado: un primer grupo de autores argumenta la presencia de economíasexternas vinculadas al capital humano mientras que un segundo grupo plantea la existencia de relaciones de complementariedad entre los diversos factores productivos y, más en concreto, entre el capital humano y el capital físico.El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la existencia de una posible relación positiva entre el nivel de capital humano de las provincias españolas y su productividad de éstas y, a continuación, averiguar si el canal a través delcual se produce el efecto son las economías externas. Para ello, se aplica unametodología que consta de dos etapas. En la primera, se estima una ecuación de Mincer utilizando información de la Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares a fin de obtener una estimación de la productividad media de cada una de las provincias españolas una vez controlado el efecto del capital humano de los individuos sobre su propia productividad. En una segunda etapa, la estimación de la productividad provincial media estimada se introduce como variable endógena en una nueva ecuación cuyas variables explicativas intentan aproximar el nivel de capital humano de cada una de las provincias. A partir de esta segunda regresión se detecta una relación positiva entre la productividad media estimada del territorio y el nivel educativo medio delmismo. Sin embargo, la principal conclusión del análisis realizado es que dicha relación no puede explicarse por el impacto de las economías externas generadas exógenamente por el capital humano, sino que debe atribuirse a otros efectos que, actuando también por lado de la demanda, impulsen al alza la productividad.
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There is no registered treatment (ttr) for pts with mCRPC who have progressive disease during or shortly after docetaxel (doc). EGFR overexpression increases in prostate cancer during the course of the disease. We investigated efficacy and safety of the combination of the monoclonal EGFR antibody cetuximab (cet) and doc in pts with mCRPC who are doc-refractory. Methods: Pts with mCRPC progressing during or < 90 days after at least 12 weeks of doc were included. Ttr consisted of the same doc regimen as prior to progression (35mg/m2 d1,8,15 q4w or 75mg/m2 q3w) in combination with cet (400mg/m2 d1, then 250mg/m2 weekly). Primary endpoint was progression free survival (PFS) at 12 weeks defined as absence of PSA progression or progression of metastases (mets). Secondary endpoints included toxicity, PFS at 24 weeks, PSA response, response of measureable disease and overall survival. 35 pts were needed in a Simon's two stage optimal design with a power of 90% and a significance level of 5% in order to test PFS rate at 12 weeks of £10% vs ?30%. Results: 35 evaluable pts were enrolled at 15 Swiss centers between 7/08 and 9/09. Median follow up was 14.8 months. Confirmed PFS at 12 weeks was 34% (95%CI 19-52%), PFS at 24 weeks was 20% and overall survival was 12.0 months (95%CI 7.1 -15.6). 20% (7/35) had a confirmed decline in PSA ? 50% and 31% (11/35) had a confirmed PSA decline ? 30%. Of pts with measurable disease (n=24) PR, SD and PD at week 12 was 4%, 54% and 25%, respectively (17% not evaluable). 3/9 (33%) pts with PDduring last doc ttr before inclusion reached the primary endpoint compared to 7/18 (39%) with PR or SD to last doc. 54% of evaluable pts experienced grade 3 and 6% grade 4 toxicity. Discussion: The result of the primary endpoint was promising in this first trial to test cet in combination with doc in pts with docetaxel-refractory mCRPC. Because this goal was achieved in such a highly pretreated pts population it appears that inhibition of the EGFR pathway may play a more important and persistent role in the treatment of prostate cancer than perceived so far. Further research is therefore warranted. Disclosure: R. Cathomas: - Membership on advisory board for sanofi aventis (suisse) and Merck. S. Gillessen: - Membership in advisory board for Sanofi Aventis. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interest.
Resumo:
[cat] Com afecten l’obertura comercial i financera a la volatilitat macroeconòmica? La literatura existent, tant empírica com teòrica, no ha assolit encara un consens. Aquest article usa un model microfonamentat de dos països simètrics amb entrada endògena d’empreses per estudiar-ho. L’anàlisis es du a terme per tres règims econòmics diferents amb diferents nivells d’integració internacional: una economia tancada, una autarquia financera i una integració plena. Es consideren diversos nivells d’obertura comercial, en forma de biaix domèstic de la demanda i l’economia pot patir pertorbacions en la productivitat del treball i en innovació. El model conclou que la incertesa macroeconòmica, representada principalment per la volatilitat del consum, la producció i la relació real d’intercanvi internacional, depèn del grau d’obertura i del tipus de pertorbació.
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[cat] En aquest article, es presenta un model econòmic que permet determinar la venda o no d'una pòlissa de vida (total o en part) per part d'un assegurat malalt terminal en el mercat dels viatical settlements. Aquest mercat va aparèixer a finals de la dècada dels 80 a conseqüència de l'epidèmia de la SIDA. Actualment, representa una part del mercat dels life settlements. Les pòlisses que es comercialitzen en el mercat dels viaticals són aquelles on l'assegurat és malalt terminal amb una esperança de vida de dos anys o menys. El model és discret i considera només dos períodes (anys), ja que aquesta és la vida residual màxima que contempla el mercat. L'agent posseix una riquesa inicial que ha de repartir entre consum i herència. S'introdueix en primer lloc la funció d'utilitat esperada del decisor i, utilitzant programació dinàmica, es dedueix l'estratègia que reporta una utilitat més gran (no vendre/vendre (en part) la pòlissa en el moment zero/vendre (en part) la pòlissa en el moment ú). L'òptim depèn del preu de la pòlissa venuda i de paràmetres personals de l'individu. Es troba una expressió analítica per l'estratègia òptima i es realitza un anàlisi de sensibilitat.
Resumo:
En la última década, distintos estudios han intentado contrastar empíricamente la existencia de una relación entre el stock de capital humanolocal y la productividad del territorio, así como la posible presencia de economías externas asociadas a aquél. El resultado común de dichos estudios ha consistido en encontrar una correlación positiva entre ambas variables Losdiversos autores no coinciden, en cambio, a la hora de explicar dicho resultado: un primer grupo de autores argumenta la presencia de economíasexternas vinculadas al capital humano mientras que un segundo grupo plantea la existencia de relaciones de complementariedad entre los diversos factores productivos y, más en concreto, entre el capital humano y el capital físico.El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la existencia de una posible relación positiva entre el nivel de capital humano de las provincias españolas y su productividad de éstas y, a continuación, averiguar si el canal a través delcual se produce el efecto son las economías externas. Para ello, se aplica unametodología que consta de dos etapas. En la primera, se estima una ecuación de Mincer utilizando información de la Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares a fin de obtener una estimación de la productividad media de cada una de las provincias españolas una vez controlado el efecto del capital humano de los individuos sobre su propia productividad. En una segunda etapa, la estimación de la productividad provincial media estimada se introduce como variable endógena en una nueva ecuación cuyas variables explicativas intentan aproximar el nivel de capital humano de cada una de las provincias. A partir de esta segunda regresión se detecta una relación positiva entre la productividad media estimada del territorio y el nivel educativo medio delmismo. Sin embargo, la principal conclusión del análisis realizado es que dicha relación no puede explicarse por el impacto de las economías externas generadas exógenamente por el capital humano, sino que debe atribuirse a otros efectos que, actuando también por lado de la demanda, impulsen al alza la productividad.
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A two stage sampling strategy is necessary in order to optimize the study of distribution of pollution in soils and groundwater. First, detailed sampling from a limited area coupled with statistical analysis of the data are used to determine the microvariability of the parameter(s). The results from this detailed analysis are then used to calculate the optimal spacing between samples for the larger scale study. This two stage sampling strategy can result in significant financial savings during subsequent soil or groundwater remediation. This combined sampling and statistical analysis approach is illustrated with an example from a heavy metal contaminated site.
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Infection of total hip arthroplasties (THA) leads to significant long-termmorbidity and high healthcare costs. We evaluated the differentreasons for treatment failure using different surgical modalities in a12-year prosthetic joint infection cohort study.Method: All patients hospitalized at our institution with infected THAwere included either retrospectively (1999-2007) or prospectively(2008-2010). THA infection was defined as growth of the same microorganismin ≥2 tissue or synovial fluid culture, visible purulence, sinustract or acute inflammation on tissue histopathology. Outcome analysiswas performed at outpatient visits, followed by contacting patients,their relatives and/or treating physicians afterwards.Results: During the study period, 117 patients with THA were identified.We exclude 2 patients due to missing data. The median age was69 years (range, 33-102 years); 42% were women. THA was mainlyperformed for osteoarthritis (n = 84), followed by trauma (n = 22),necrosis (n = 4), dysplasia (n = 2), rheumatoid arthritis (n = 1), osteosarcoma(n = 1) and tuberculosis (n = 1). 28 infections occurred early(≤3 months), 25 delayed (3-24 months) and 63 late (≥24 months aftersurgery). Infected THA were treated with (i) two-stage exchange in59 patients (51%, cure rate: 93%), (ii) one-stage exchange in 5 (4.3%,cure rate: 100%), (iii) debridement with change of mobile parts in18 (17%, cure rate: 83%), (iv) debridement without change of mobileparts in 17 (14%, cure rate: 53% ), (v) Girdlestone in 13 (11%, curerate: 100%), and (vi) two-stage exchange followed by removal in 3(2.6%). Patients were followed for a mean of 3.9 years (range, 0.1 to 9years), 7 patients died unrelated to the infected THA. 15 patients (13%)needed additional operations, 1 for mechanical reasons (dislocationof spacer) and 14 for persistent infection: 11 treated with debridementand retention (8 without change and 3 with change of mobile parts)and 3 with two-stage exchange. The mean number of surgery was 2.2(range, 1 to 5). The infection was finally eradicated in all patients, butthe functional outcome remained unsatisfactory in 20% (persistentpain or impaired mobility due to spacer or Girdlestone situation).Conclusions: Non-respect of current treatment concept leads totreatment failure with subsequent operations. Precise analysis of eachtreatment failures can be used for improving the treatment algorithmleading to better results.
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Measurements and simulations were performed to assess workers' exposure to solvent vapors and aerosols during the waterproofing of a tiled surface. This investigation followed two recent incidents in the same company where workers experienced acute respiratory illness after spraying a stain-repellent resin containing fluorinated polymers on stone-tiled walls and floors. Because the waterproofing activity had been done for years at the tile company without encountering any exposure problems prior to these cases, it was strongly suspected that the incidents were linked to a recent change in the composition of the coating mixture. Experimental measurements and simulations indicated that the emission rate of particles smaller than 10 microm may be estimated at 0.66 mg/sec (SD 0.10) for the old resin and at 0.37 mg/sec (SD 0.04) for the new one. The measurement of the solvent emission rate from surfaces coated with the two resins indicated that shortly after spraying, the emission was in the range of 18 to 20 mg/sec x m2 and was similar for both products. Solvent and overspray emission rates were introduced in a two-zone compartment model. The results obtained in the near-field indicate significant exposure to overspray mist (7 and 34 mg/m3 for new resin) and solvent vapors (80 to 350 ppm for the new resin). It was also shown that the introduction of the new resin tended to significantly decrease the levels of solvents and particulates in the workers' breathing zone. These results strongly suggest that cases of acute respiratory illness are related to the specific toxicity of the fluorinated polymer itself. The fact that the same polymer is used in various commercial products raises concern regarding other possible occupational and domestic exposures.
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[cat] En aquest article, es presenta un model econòmic que permet determinar la venda o no d'una pòlissa de vida (total o en part) per part d'un assegurat malalt terminal en el mercat dels viatical settlements. Aquest mercat va aparèixer a finals de la dècada dels 80 a conseqüència de l'epidèmia de la SIDA. Actualment, representa una part del mercat dels life settlements. Les pòlisses que es comercialitzen en el mercat dels viaticals són aquelles on l'assegurat és malalt terminal amb una esperança de vida de dos anys o menys. El model és discret i considera només dos períodes (anys), ja que aquesta és la vida residual màxima que contempla el mercat. L'agent posseix una riquesa inicial que ha de repartir entre consum i herència. S'introdueix en primer lloc la funció d'utilitat esperada del decisor i, utilitzant programació dinàmica, es dedueix l'estratègia que reporta una utilitat més gran (no vendre/vendre (en part) la pòlissa en el moment zero/vendre (en part) la pòlissa en el moment ú). L'òptim depèn del preu de la pòlissa venuda i de paràmetres personals de l'individu. Es troba una expressió analítica per l'estratègia òptima i es realitza un anàlisi de sensibilitat.
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Amana Farms is using an anaerobic digestion, which is a two-stage digester that converts manure and other organic wastes into three valuable by-products: 1) Biogas – to fuel an engine/generator set to create electricity; 2) Biosolids - used as a livestock bedding material or as a soil amendment; 3) Liquid stream - will be applied as a low-odor fertilizer to growing crops. (see Business Plan appendix H) The methane biogas will be collected from the two stages of the anaerobic digestion vessel and used for fuel in the combined heat and power engine/generator sets. The engine/generator sets are natural gasfueled reciprocating engines modified to burn biogas. The electricity produced by the engine/generator sets will be used to offset on-farm power consumption and the excess power will be sold directly to Amana Society Service Company as a source of green power. The waste heat, in the form of hot water, will be collected from both the engine jacket liquid cooling system and from the engine exhaust (air) system. Approximately 30 to 60% of this waste heat will be used to heat the digester. The remaining waste heat will be used to heat other farm buildings and may provide heat for future use for drying corn or biosolids. The digester effluent will be pumped from the effluent pit at the end of the anaerobic digestion vessel to a manure solids separator. The mechanical manure separator will separate the effluent digested waste stream into solid and liquid fractions. The solids will be dewatered to approximately a 35% solid material. Some of the separated solids will be used by the farm for a livestock bedding replacement. The remaining separated solids may be sold to other farms for livestock bedding purposes or sold to after-markets, such as nurseries and composters for soil amendment material. The liquid from the manure separator, now with the majority of the large solids removed, will be pumped into the farm’s storage lagoon. A significant advantage of the effluent from the anaerobic digestion treatment process is that the viscosity of the effluent is such that the liquid effluent can now be pumped through an irrigation nozzle for field spreading.
Resumo:
[cat] Com afecten l’obertura comercial i financera a la volatilitat macroeconòmica? La literatura existent, tant empírica com teòrica, no ha assolit encara un consens. Aquest article usa un model microfonamentat de dos països simètrics amb entrada endògena d’empreses per estudiar-ho. L’anàlisis es du a terme per tres règims econòmics diferents amb diferents nivells d’integració internacional: una economia tancada, una autarquia financera i una integració plena. Es consideren diversos nivells d’obertura comercial, en forma de biaix domèstic de la demanda i l’economia pot patir pertorbacions en la productivitat del treball i en innovació. El model conclou que la incertesa macroeconòmica, representada principalment per la volatilitat del consum, la producció i la relació real d’intercanvi internacional, depèn del grau d’obertura i del tipus de pertorbació.
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Objectives: Acetate brain metabolism has the particularity to occur specifically in glial cells. Labeling studies, using acetate labeled either with 13C (NMR) or 11C (PET), are governed by the same biochemical reactions and thus follow the same mathematical principles. In this study, the objective was to adapt an NMR acetate brain metabolism model to analyse [1-11C]acetate infusion in rats. Methods: Brain acetate infusion experiments were modeled using a two-compartment model approach used in NMR.1-3 The [1-11C]acetate labeling study was done using a beta scintillator.4 The measured radioactive signal represents the time evolution of the sum of all labeled metabolites in the brain. Using a coincidence counter in parallel, an arterial input curve was measured. The 11C at position C-1 of acetate is metabolized in the first turn of the TCA cycle to the position 5 of glutamate (Figure 1A). Through the neurotransmission process, it is further transported to the position 5 of glutamine and the position 5 of neuronal glutamate. After the second turn of the TCA cycle, tracer from [1-11C]acetate (and also a part from glial [5-11C]glutamate) is transferred to glial [1-11C]glutamate and further to [1-11C]glutamine and neuronal glutamate through the neurotransmission cycle. Brain poster session: oxidative mechanisms S460 Journal of Cerebral Blood Flow & Metabolism (2009) 29, S455-S466 Results: The standard acetate two-pool PET model describes the system by a plasma pool and a tissue pool linked by rate constants. Experimental data are not fully described with only one tissue compartment (Figure 1B). The modified NMR model was fitted successfully to tissue time-activity curves from 6 single animals, by varying the glial mitochondrial fluxes and the neurotransmission flux Vnt. A glial composite rate constant Kgtg=Vgtg/[Ace]plasma was extracted. Considering an average acetate concentration in plasma of 1 mmol/g5 and the negligible additional amount injected, we found an average Vgtg = 0.08±0.02 (n = 6), in agreement with previous NMR measurements.1 The tissue time-activity curve is dominated by glial glutamate and later by glutamine (Figure 1B). Labeling of neuronal pools has a low influence, at least for the 20 mins of beta-probe acquisition. Based on the high diffusivity of CO2 across the blood-brain barrier; 11CO2 is not predominant in the total tissue curve, even if the brain CO2 pool is big compared with other metabolites, due to its strong dilution through unlabeled CO2 from neuronal metabolism and diffusion from plasma. Conclusion: The two-compartment model presented here is also able to fit data of positron emission experiments and to extract specific glial metabolic fluxes. 11C-labeled acetate presents an alternative for faster measurements of glial oxidative metabolism compared to NMR, potentially applicable to human PET imaging. However, to quantify the relative value of the TCA cycle flux compared to the transmitochondrial flux, the chemical sensitivity of NMR is required. PET and NMR are thus complementary.
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We formulate a new mixing model to explore hydrological and chemical conditions under which the interface between the stream and catchment interface (SCI) influences the release of reactive solutes into stream water during storms. Physically, the SCI corresponds to the hyporheic/riparian sediments. In the new model this interface is coupled through a bidirectional water exchange to the conventional two components mixing model. Simulations show that the influence of the SCI on stream solute dynamics during storms is detectable when the runoff event is dominated by the infiltrated groundwater component that flows through the SCI before entering the stream and when the flux of solutes released from SCI sediments is similar to, or higher than, the solute flux carried by the groundwater. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrate data from two small Mediterranean streams obtained during storms are compared to results from simulations using the new model to discern the circumstances under which the SCI is likely to control the dynamics of reactive solutes in streams. The simulations and the comparisons with empirical data suggest that the new mixing model may be especially appropriate for streams in which the periodic, or persistent, abrupt changes in the level of riparian groundwater exert hydrologic control on flux of biologically reactive fluxes between the riparian/hyporheic compartment and the stream water.
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Natural selection favors alleles that increase the number of offspring produced by their carriers. But in a world that is inherently uncertain within generations, selection also favors alleles that reduce the variance in the number of offspring produced. If previous studies have established this principle, they have largely ignored fundamental aspects of sexual reproduction and therefore how selection on sex-specific reproductive variance operates. To study the evolution and consequences of sex-specific reproductive variance, we present a population-genetic model of phenotypic evolution in a dioecious population that incorporates previously neglected components of reproductive variance. First, we derive the probability of fixation for mutations that affect male and/or female reproductive phenotypes under sex-specific selection. We find that even in the simplest scenarios, the direction of selection is altered when reproductive variance is taken into account. In particular, previously unaccounted for covariances between the reproductive outputs of different individuals are expected to play a significant role in determining the direction of selection. Then, the probability of fixation is used to develop a stochastic model of joint male and female phenotypic evolution. We find that sex-specific reproductive variance can be responsible for changes in the course of long-term evolution. Finally, the model is applied to an example of parental-care evolution. Overall, our model allows for the evolutionary analysis of social traits in finite and dioecious populations, where interactions can occur within and between sexes under a realistic scenario of reproduction.
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A new technique capable of obtaining quantitative values of the rotation angle of the polarization vector by using holography is presented. This is a two-stage holographic process; during the recording stage a hologram of the object of interest is obtained. The reference beam is composed of two beams that form a small angle between them and keep their polarization states at right angles to each other. In the reconstruction stage of the hologram, two images from the hologram are obtained along two different angles. As a result of the interference between these two images, a set of parallel fringes is formed at the image plane. The fringe contrast on the reconstruction is related to the angle of the polarization vector of the light at each position on the image plane. Measurements of the rotation of the polarization angle of a fraction of a degree were obtained. The main application of this technique is in the study of transient phenomena, where single-shot measurements are the only means of obtaining reliable data.