906 resultados para Timed and Probabilistic Automata
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In cattle, proestrus begins with the initiation of luteolysis and ends with initiation of estrus and the GnRH/LH surge. This period is marked by a dramatic decrease in circulating progesterone (P4) that reaches a nadir by about 36-48 h in cows undergoing natural or prostaglandin F2 alpha (PGF)-induced luteolysis. Inadequate luteolysis is a cause of reduced fertility particularly in timed AI programs with small elevations in circulating P4 reducing fertility. Increasing circulating estradiol (E2) during proestrus is dependent on presence, size, and function of the dominant follicle and this varies during natural proestrus, due to whether animals have two or three follicular waves, and during PGF-induced proestrus, according to stage of the follicular wave at time of PGF treatment. Inadequate circulating E2 can limit fertility and increase pregnancy loss in some specific circumstances such as in cows with low BCS and in cows during heat stress. Thus, studies to optimize the length of proestrus and the concentrations of E2 and P4 during proestrus could produce substantial improvements in fertility and reductions in pregnancy loss.
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Modern protocols to synchronize ovulations for timed artificial insemination and timed embryo transfer that include manipulations in the proestrus period (i.e., between luteolysis and estrus) affect fertility in cattle. Specifically, stimulating pre-ovulatory follicle growth and exposure to estrogens after CL regression increase the proportion of cows pregnant and decrease late embryo mortality. Such effects may be due to both preovulatory actions of estrogens and post-ovulatory actions of progesterone, as concentrations of the later hormone may be changed in response to manipulations conducted during proestrus. In the first portion of this paper we describe strategies used recently to manipulate the proestrus period in protocols for synchronization of ovulation, and to present evidence of their effects on fertility. Manipulations of timing and prominence of sex steroids during the proestrus and early diestrus that affect fertility may act on targets such as the endometrium. This tissue expresses receptors for both estrogens and progesterone and these hormones change endometrial function to support conceptus growth and pregnancy maintenance. However, specific cellular and molecular mechanisms through which fertility is affected via manipulations of the proestrus are poorly understood. In the second portion of this paper we describe a well-defined animal model to study changes in endometrial function induced by manipulations conducted during the proestrus. Such manipulations induced endometrial changes on sex steroid receptors expression, cell proliferation, oxidative metabolism and eicosanoid synthesis in the uterus, but not on glucose transport to uterine lumen. In summary, evidence is accumulating to support a positive role of increasing duration and estrogen availability during the proestrus on fertility to synchronization protocols. Such positive effects may be through changes in endometrial function to stimulate conceptus growth and survival.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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In today’s context of environmental degradation, environmental issues have increasingly become a focus of global discussion. Although many researchers emphasize the importance of knowledge and information in promoting environmental protection, research involving people’s notions about and attitudes toward the environment and establishing their connection with such knowledge is scarce. This lack of research led to the following inquiry: Is it possible to relate conservation actions and concern about a biome – in this case, the Cerrado – to the population’s level of knowledge about the environment in which they live? This research presents results from an investigation conducted in a representative population sample in Bauru, where there are fragments of a Cerrado Legal Reserve. The sampling approach used was probabilistic; it is based on random laws and can be submitted to statistical methods. The total sample (450 people) was divided into 90 people per Bauru region, 45 people female and 45 males. Each gender group was divided into three age groups: the first from 16 to 30 years, the second from 31 to 55 years and the third above 56 years. Through the questionnaire, we collected the following data from respondents: personal data such as salary, gender, age, level of education, notions/actions and intentions related to environmental conservation and general knowledge about the Cerrado. The result of the chi-square analysis is consistent with this finding, as it is less than 0.05, demonstrating a significant association between these two variables.
Manipulation of follicle development to ensure optimal oocyte quality and conception rates in cattle
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Over the last several decades, a number of therapies have been developed that manipulate ovarian follicle growth to improve oocyte quality and conception rates in cattle. Various strategies have been proposed to improve the responses to reproductive biotechnologies following timed artificial insemination (TAI), superovulation (SOV) or ovum pickup (OPU) programmes. During TAI protocols, final follicular growth and size of the ovulatory follicle are key factors that may significantly influence oocyte quality, ovulation, the uterine environment and consequently pregnancy outcomes. Progesterone concentrations during SOV protocols influence follicular growth, oocyte quality and embryo quality; therefore, several adjustments to SOV protocols have been proposed depending on the animal category and breed. In addition, the success of in vitro embryo production is directly related to the number and quality of cumulus oocyte complexes harvested by OPU. Control of follicle development has a significant impact on the OPU outcome. This article discusses a number of key points related to the manipulation of ovarian follicular growth to maximize oocyte quality and improve conception rates following TAI and embryo transfer of in vivo-and in vitro-derived embryos in cattle.
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In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number R-0 is usually defined as the average number of new infections caused by a single infective individual introduced into a completely susceptible population. According to this definition. R-0 is related to the initial stage of the spreading of a contagious disease. However, from epidemiological models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE), R-0 is commonly derived from a linear stability analysis and interpreted as a bifurcation parameter: typically, when R-0 >1, the contagious disease tends to persist in the population because the endemic stationary solution is asymptotically stable: when R-0 <1, the corresponding pathogen tends to naturally disappear because the disease-free stationary solution is asymptotically stable. Here we intend to answer the following question: Do these two different approaches for calculating R-0 give the same numerical values? In other words, is the number of secondary infections caused by a unique sick individual equal to the threshold obtained from stability analysis of steady states of ODE? For finding the answer, we use a susceptibleinfective-recovered (SIR) model described in terms of ODE and also in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. The values of R-0 obtained from both approaches are compared, showing good agreement. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence and vulnerability of homeless people to HIV infection. METHODS: Cross-sectional study conducted with a non-probabilistic sample of 1,405 homeless users of shelters in the city of Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil, from 2006 to 2007. They were all tested for HIV and a structured questionnaire was applied. Their vulnerability to HIV was determined by the frequency of condom use: those who reported using condoms only occasionally or never were considered the most vulnerable. Multinomial and logistic regression models were used to estimate effect measures and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: There was a predominance of males (85.6%), with a mean age of 40.9 years, 72.0% had complete elementary schooling, and 71.5% were non-white. Of all respondents, 15.7% reported being homosexual or bisexual and 62,0% reported having casual sex. The mean number of sexual partners in the last 12 months was 5.4. More than half (55.7%) of the respondents reported lifetime drug use, while 25.7% reported frequent use. Sexually-transmitted disease was reported by 39.6% of the homeless and 38.3% reported always using condoms. The prevalence of HIV infection was 4.9% (17.4% also tested positive for syphilis) and about half of the respondents (55.4%) had access to prevention programs. Higher HIV prevalence was associated with younger age (18-29 years, OR = 4.0 [95% CI 1.54; 10.46]); past history of sexually-transmitted disease (OR = 3.3 [95% CI 1.87; 5.73]); homosexual sex (OR = 3.0 [95% CI 1.28; 6.92]); and syphilis (OR = 2.4 [95% CI 1.13; 4.93]). Increased vulnerability to HIV infection was associated with being female; young; homosexual sex; having few partners or a steady partner; drug and alcohol use; not having access to prevention programs and social support. CONCLUSIONS: The HIV epidemic has a major impact on homeless people reflecting a cycle of exclusion, social vulnerability, and limited access to prevention.
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We study the firing rate properties of a cellular automaton model for a neuronal network with chemical synapses. We propose a simple mechanism in which the nonlocal connections are included, through electrical and chemical synapses. In the latter case, we introduce a time delay which produces self-sustained activity. Nonlocal connections, or shortcuts, are randomly introduced according to a specified connection probability. There is a range of connection probabilities for which neuron firing occurs, as well as a critical probability for which the firing ceases in the absence of time delay. The critical probability for nonlocal shortcuts depends on the network size according to a power-law. We also compute the firing rate amplification factor by varying both the connection probability and the time delay for different network sizes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Background: Previous studies show that chronic hemiparetic patients after stroke, presents inabilities to perform movements in paretic hemibody. This inability is induced by positive reinforcement of unsuccessful attempts, a concept called learned non-use. Forced use therapy (FUT) and constraint induced movement therapy (CIMT) were developed with the goal of reversing the learned non-use. These approaches have been proposed for the rehabilitation of the paretic upper limb (PUL). It is unknown what would be the possible effects of these approaches in the rehabilitation of gait and balance. Objectives: To evaluate the effect of Modified FUT (mFUT) and Modified CIMT (mCIMT) on the gait and balance during four weeks of treatment and 3 months follow-up. Methods: This study included thirty-seven hemiparetic post-stroke subjects that were randomly allocated into two groups based on the treatment protocol. The non-paretic UL was immobilized for a period of 23 hours per day, five days a week. Participants were evaluated at Baseline, 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th weeks, and three months after randomization. For the evaluation we used: The Stroke Impact Scale (SIS), Berg Balance Scale (BBS) and Fugl-Meyer Motor Assessment (FM). Gait was analyzed by the 10-meter walk test (T10) and Timed Up & Go test (TUG). Results: Both groups revealed a better health status (SIS), better balance, better use of lower limb (BBS and FM) and greater speed in gait (T10 and TUG), during the weeks of treatment and months of follow-up, compared to the baseline. Conclusion: The results show mFUT and mCIMT are effective in the rehabilitation of balance and gait. Trial Registration ACTRN12611000411943.
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Patterns of species interactions affect the dynamics of food webs. An important component of species interactions that is rarely considered with respect to food webs is the strengths of interactions, which may affect both structure and dynamics. In natural systems, these strengths are variable, and can be quantified as probability distributions. We examined how variation in strengths of interactions can be described hierarchically, and how this variation impacts the structure of species interactions in predator-prey networks, both of which are important components of ecological food webs. The stable isotope ratios of predator and prey species may be particularly useful for quantifying this variability, and we show how these data can be used to build probabilistic predator-prey networks. Moreover, the distribution of variation in strengths among interactions can be estimated from a limited number of observations. This distribution informs network structure, especially the key role of dietary specialization, which may be useful for predicting structural properties in systems that are difficult to observe. Finally, using three mammalian predator-prey networks ( two African and one Canadian) quantified from stable isotope data, we show that exclusion of link-strength variability results in biased estimates of nestedness and modularity within food webs, whereas the inclusion of body size constraints only marginally increases the predictive accuracy of the isotope-based network. We find that modularity is the consequence of strong link-strengths in both African systems, while nestedness is not significantly present in any of the three predator-prey networks.
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Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is an interest in studying latent variables (or latent traits). Usually such latent traits are assumed to be random variables and a convenient distribution is assigned to them. A very common choice for such a distribution has been the standard normal. Recently, Azevedo et al. [Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization, Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 55 (2011), pp. 353-365] proposed a skew-normal distribution under the centred parameterization (SNCP) as had been studied in [R. B. Arellano-Valle and A. Azzalini, The centred parametrization for the multivariate skew-normal distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 99(7) (2008), pp. 1362-1382], to model the latent trait distribution. This approach allows one to represent any asymmetric behaviour concerning the latent trait distribution. Also, they developed a Metropolis-Hastings within the Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm based on the density of the SNCP. They showed that the algorithm recovers all parameters properly. Their results indicated that, in the presence of asymmetry, the proposed model and the estimation algorithm perform better than the usual model and estimation methods. Our main goal in this paper is to propose another type of MHWGS algorithm based on a stochastic representation (hierarchical structure) of the SNCP studied in [N. Henze, A probabilistic representation of the skew-normal distribution, Scand. J. Statist. 13 (1986), pp. 271-275]. Our algorithm has only one Metropolis-Hastings step, in opposition to the algorithm developed by Azevedo et al., which has two such steps. This not only makes the implementation easier but also reduces the number of proposal densities to be used, which can be a problem in the implementation of MHWGS algorithms, as can be seen in [R.J. Patz and B.W. Junker, A straightforward approach to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for item response models, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(2) (1999), pp. 146-178; R. J. Patz and B. W. Junker, The applications and extensions of MCMC in IRT: Multiple item types, missing data, and rated responses, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(4) (1999), pp. 342-366; A. Gelman, G.O. Roberts, and W.R. Gilks, Efficient Metropolis jumping rules, Bayesian Stat. 5 (1996), pp. 599-607]. Moreover, we consider a modified beta prior (which generalizes the one considered in [3]) and a Jeffreys prior for the asymmetry parameter. Furthermore, we study the sensitivity of such priors as well as the use of different kernel densities for this parameter. Finally, we assess the impact of the number of examinees, number of items and the asymmetry level on the parameter recovery. Results of the simulation study indicated that our approach performed equally as well as that in [3], in terms of parameter recovery, mainly using the Jeffreys prior. Also, they indicated that the asymmetry level has the highest impact on parameter recovery, even though it is relatively small. A real data analysis is considered jointly with the development of model fitting assessment tools. The results are compared with the ones obtained by Azevedo et al. The results indicate that using the hierarchical approach allows us to implement MCMC algorithms more easily, it facilitates diagnosis of the convergence and also it can be very useful to fit more complex skew IRT models.