Modeling Flood Stage-Duration-Frequency: A Risk Assessment of Critical Infrastructure in the Tidal Potomac

The service of a critical infrastructure, such as a municipal wastewater treatment plant (MWWTP), is taken for granted until a flood or another low frequency, high consequence crisis brings its fragility to attention. The unique aspects of the MWWTP call for a method to quantify the flood stage-duration-frequency relationship. By developing a bivariate joint distribution model of flood stage and duration, this study adds a second dimension, time, into flood risk studies. A new parameter, inter-event time, is developed to further illustrate the effect of event separation on the frequency assessment. The method is tested on riverine, estuary and tidal sites in the Mid-Atlantic region. Equipment damage functions are characterized by linear and step damage models. The Expected Annual Damage (EAD) of the underground equipment is further estimated by the parametric joint distribution model, which is a function of both flood stage and duration, demonstrating the application of the bivariate model in risk assessment. Flood likelihood may alter due to climate change. A sensitivity analysis method is developed to assess future flood risk by estimating flood frequency under conditions of higher sea level and stream flow response to increased precipitation intensity. Scenarios based on steady and unsteady flow analysis are generated for current climate, future climate within this century, and future climate beyond this century, consistent with the WWTP planning horizons. The spatial extent of flood risk is visualized by inundation mapping and GIS-Assisted Risk Register (GARR). This research will help the stakeholders of the critical infrastructure be aware of the flood risk, vulnerability, and the inherent uncertainty.

Climatic fluctuations and homogenization of Northeast Brazil using precipitation data.

Before using the basic precipitation data in any agroclimatic study to assess the productivity it is important to check the data series for homogeneity. For this purpose data of 105 locations for the period 1912-1981 over northeast Brazil were used. The preliminary study indicate nonhomogeneity in the time series during 1940's at few locations. The amplitude of variation of time series when taken as 10-year moving average show quite different for different regions. It appears that this amplitude is related to time of onset of effective rains in some extent. There is also great diversity in the fluctuations. They present a great regional diversity. Some diversity. Some of the data in the low latitudes indicate presence of four cycles namely 52, 26, 13 & 6.5. years. The 52-year cycle is also evident in the case of onset of southwest Monsoon over a low latitude zone (Kerala Coast) in India. In the case of south Africa the prominent cycles are 60, 30, 15 & 10 similar situation appears to be present in the higher latitudes of northeast Brazil.

Inhibition of nitro-oxidative stress attenuates pulmonary and systemic injury induced by high-tidal volume mechanical ventilation

Mechanisms contributing to pulmonary and systemic injury induced by high tidal volume (VT) mechanical ventilation are not well known. We tested the hypothesis that increased peroxynitrite formation is involved in organ injury and dysfunction induced by mechanical ventilation. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were subject to low- (VT, 9 mL/kg; positive end-expiratory pressure, 5 cmH2O) or high- (VT, 25 mL/kg; positive end-expiratory pressure, 0 cmH2O) VT mechanical ventilation for 120 min, and received 1 of 3 treatments: 3-aminobenzamide (3-AB, 10 mg/kg, intravenous, a poly adenosine diphosphate ribose polymerase [PARP] inhibitor), or the metalloporphyrin manganese(III) tetrakis(1-methyl-4-pyridyl)porphyrin (MnTMPyP, 5 mg/kg intravenous, a peroxynitrite scavenger), or no treatment (control group), 30 min before starting the mechanical ventilation protocol (n = 8 per group, 6 treatment groups). We measured mean arterial pressure, peak inspiratory airway pressure, blood chemistry, and gas exchange. Oxidation (fluorescence for oxidized dihydroethidium), protein nitration (immunofluorescence and Western blot for 3-nitrotyrosine), PARP protein (Western blot) and gene expression of the nitric oxide (NO) synthase (NOS) isoforms (quantitative real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction) were measured in lung and vascular tissue. Lung injury was quantified by light microscopy. High-VT mechanical ventilation was associated with hypotension, increased peak inspiratory airway pressure, worsened oxygenation; oxidation and protein nitration in lung and aortic tissue; increased PARP protein in lung; up-regulation of NOS isoforms in lung tissue; signs of diffuse alveolar damage at histological examination. Treatment with 3AB or MnTMPyP attenuated the high-VT mechanical ventilation-induced changes in pulmonary and cardiovascular function; down-regulated the expression of NOS1, NOS2, and NOS3; decreased oxidation and nitration in lung and aortic tissue; and attenuated histological changes. Increased peroxynitrite formation is involved in mechanical ventilation-induced pulmonary and vascular dysfunction.

Seasonal, tidal and diurnal changes in fish assemblages in the Ria Formosa lagoon (Portugal)

Fish fauna were collected in two different subtidal shallow sites, seagrass and sand, using a small beam trawl in the Ria Formosa lagoon (South Portugal). Samples were taken at low and high tides, during day and night, and in each season. Fish assemblages associated with each site were significantly different, with seagrass site supporting greater fish abundance and higher number of species than sand. These site-related differences in fish assemblages were stronger than any other factor studied. Both sites showed seasonal variations in their fish assemblages, mainly because of recruitment of marine juvenile migrants during spring and summer. No significant tidal or diel changes were observed in the fish assemblages of either site, but there was a significant site-tide interaction, with higher fish abundance in seagrass at low tide. In sand, tide effect was evident only for certain species, with resident species more abundant at high tide and marine species more abundant at low tide. Within the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon, ichthyofaunal composition and structure is mainly influenced by site followed by season. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental influence on commercial fishery landings of small pelagic fish in Portugal

Small pelagic fishes are particularly abundant in areas with high environmental variability (zones of coastal upwelling and areas of tidal mixing and river discharge), and because of this, their abundance suffers large inter-annual and inter-decadal fluctuations. In Portugal, the most important species in terms of landings are European sardine, Atlantic horse mackerel and Atlantic chub mackerel. Small pelagic fish landings account for 62.8 % of the total fish biomass and represent 32.7 % of the economical value of all catches. We have investigated trends in landings of these small pelagic fishes and detected the effects of environmental factors in this fishery. In order to explain the variability of landings of small pelagic fishes, we have used official landings (1965-2012) for trawling and purse seine fisheries and applied generalized linear models, using the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) (annual and winter NAO index), sea surface temperature (SST), wind data (strength and North-South and East-West wind components) and rainfall, as explanatory variables. Regression analysis was used to describe the relationship between landings and SST. The models explained between 50.16 and 51.07 % of the variability of the LPUE, with the most important factors being winter NAO index, SST and wind strength. The LPUE of European sardine and Atlantic horse mackerel was negatively correlated with SST, and LPUE of Atlantic chub mackerel was positively correlated with SST. The use of landings of three important species of small pelagic fishes allowed the detection of variations in landings associated with changes in sea water temperature and NAO index.

Towards a broader understanding of the effects of tidal forcing on the global ocean circulation

The study of tides and their interactions with the complex dynamics of the global ocean represents a crucial challenge in ocean modelling. This thesis aims to deepen this study from a dynamical point of view, analysing what are the tidal effects on the general circulation of the ocean. We perform different experiments of a mesoscale-permitting global ocean model forced by both atmospheric fields and astronomical tidal potential, and we implement two parametrizations to include in the model tidal phenomena that are currently unresolved, with particular emphasis to the topographic wave drag for locally dissipating internal waves. An additional experiment using a mesoscale-resolving configuration is used to compare the simulated tides at different resolutions with observed data. We find that the accuracy of modelled tides strongly depends on the region and harmonic component of interest, even though the increased resolution allows to improve the modelled topography and resolve more intense internal waves. We then focus on the impact of tides in the Atlantic Ocean and find that tides weaken the overturning circulation during the analysed period from 1981 to 2007, even though the interannual differences strongly change in both amplitude and phase. The zonally integrated momentum balance shows that tide changes the water stratification at the zonal boundaries, modifying the pressure and therefore the geostrophic balance over the entire basin. Finally, we describe the overturning circulation in the Mediterranean Sea computing the meridional and zonal streamfunctions both in the Eulerian and residual frameworks. The circulation is characterised by different cells, and their forcing processes are described with particular emphasis to the role of mesoscale and a transient climatic event. We complete the description of the overturning circulation giving evidence for the first time to the connection between meridional and zonal cells.

A Comparative Analysis of Dynamical Models for Tidal Dissipation in Natural Satellite Ephemerides

The study of the tides of a celestial bodies can unveil important information about their interior as well as their orbital evolution. The most important tidal parameter is the Love number, which defines the deformation of the gravity field due to an external perturbing body. Tidal dissipation is very important because it drives the secular orbital evolution of the natural satellites, which is even more important in the case of the the Jupiter system, where three of the Galilean moons, Io, Europa and Ganymede, are locked in an orbital resonance where the ratio of their mean motions is 4:2:1. This is called Laplace resonance. Tidal dissipation is described by the dissipation ratio k2/Q, where Q is the quality factor and it describes the dampening of a system. The goal of this thesis is to analyze and compare the two main tidal dynamical models, Mignard's model and gravity field variation model, to understand the differences between each model with a main focus on the single-moon case with Io, which can help also understanding better the differences between the two models without over complicating the dynamical model. In this work we have verified and validated both models, we have compared them and pinpointed the main differences and features that characterize each model. Mignard's model treats the tides directly as a force, while the gravity field variation model describes the tides with a change of the spherical harmonic coefficients. Finally, we have also briefly analyzed the difference between the single-moon case and the two-moon case, and we have confirmed that the governing equations that describe the change of semi-major axis and eccentricity are not good anymore when more moons are present.

Respiratory Viruses Are Continuously Detected In Children With Chronic Tonsillitis Throughout The Year.

To evaluate the oscillations on the viral detection in adenotonsillar tissues from patients with chronic adenotonsillar diseases as an indicia of the presence of persistent viral infections or acute subclinical infections. Cross-sectional prospective study. Tertiary hospital. The fluctuations of respiratory virus detection were compared to the major climatic variables during a two-year period using adenoids and palatine tonsils from 172 children with adenotonsillar hypertrophy and clinical evidence of obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome or recurrent adenotonsillitis, without symptoms of acute respiratory infection (ARI), by TaqMan real-time PCR. The rate of detection of at least one respiratory virus in adenotonsillar tissue was 87%. The most frequently detected viruses were human adenovirus in 52.8%, human enterovirus in 47.2%, human rhinovirus in 33.8%, human bocavirus in 31.1%, human metapneumovirus in 18.3% and human respiratory syncytial virus in 17.2%. Although increased detection of human enterovirus occurred in summer/autumn months, and there were summer nadirs of human respiratory syncytial virus in both years of the study, there was no obvious viral seasonality in contrast to reports with ARI patients in many regions of the world. Respiratory viruses are continuously highly detected during whole year, and without any clinical symptomatology, indicating that viral genome of some virus can persist in lymphoepithelial tissues of the upper respiratory tract.

Volumetric Capnography For The Evaluation Of Chronic Airways Diseases.

Obstructive lung diseases of different etiologies present with progressive peripheral airway involvement. The peripheral airways, known as the silent lung zone, are not adequately evaluated with conventional function tests. The principle of gas washout has been used to detect pulmonary ventilation inhomogeneity and to estimate the location of the underlying disease process. Volumetric capnography (VC) analyzes the pattern of CO2 elimination as a function of expired volume. To measure normalized phase 3 slopes with VC in patients with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis (NCB) and in bronchitic patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in order to compare the slopes obtained for the groups. NCB and severe COPD were enrolled sequentially from an outpatient clinic (Hospital of the State University of Campinas). A control group was established for the NCB group, paired by sex and age. All subjects performed spirometry, VC, and the 6-Minute Walk Test (6MWT). Two comparisons were made: NCB group versus its control group, and NCB group versus COPD group. The project was approved by the ethical committee of the institution. Statistical tests used were Wilcoxon or Student's t-test; P<0.05 was considered to be a statistically significant difference. Concerning the NCB group (N=20) versus the control group (N=20), significant differences were found in body mass index and in several functional variables (spirometric, VC, 6MWT) with worse results observed in the NCB group. In the comparison between the COPD group (N=20) versus the NCB group, although patients with COPD had worse spirometric and 6MWT values, the capnographic variables mean phase 2 slope (Slp2), mean phase 3 slope normalized by the mean expiratory volume, or mean phase 3 slope normalized by the end-tidal CO2 concentration were similar. These findings may indicate that the gas elimination curves are not sensitive enough to monitor the severity of structural abnormalities. The role of normalized phase 3 slope may be worth exploring as a more sensitive index of small airway disease, even though it may not be equally sensitive in discriminating the severity of the alterations.

Site Specific Spin Dynamics In Bafe2as2: Tuning The Ground State By Orbital Differentiation.

The role of orbital differentiation on the emergence of superconductivity in the Fe-based superconductors remains an open question to the scientific community. In this investigation, we employ a suitable microscopic spin probe technique, namely Electron Spin Resonance (ESR), to investigate this issue on selected chemically substituted BaFe2As2 single crystals. As the spin-density wave (SDW) phase is suppressed, we observe a clear increase of the Fe 3d bands anisotropy along with their localization at the FeAs plane. Such an increase of the planar orbital content is interestingly independent of the chemical substitution responsible for suppressing the SDW phase. As a consequence, the magnetic fluctuations in combination with this particular symmetry of the Fe 3d bands are propitious ingredients for the emergence of superconductivity in this class of materials.

Hyperhoneycomb Iridate β-li_{2}iro_{3} As A Platform For Kitaev Magnetism.

A complex iridium oxide β-Li_{2}IrO_{3} crystallizes in a hyperhoneycomb structure, a three-dimensional analogue of honeycomb lattice, and is found to be a spin-orbital Mott insulator with J_{eff}=1/2 moment. Ir ions are connected to the three neighboring Ir ions via Ir-O_{2}-Ir bonding planes, which very likely gives rise to bond-dependent ferromagnetic interactions between the J_{eff}=1/2 moments, an essential ingredient of Kitaev model with a spin liquid ground state. Dominant ferromagnetic interaction between J_{eff}=1/2 moments is indeed confirmed by the temperature dependence of magnetic susceptibility χ(T) which shows a positive Curie-Weiss temperature θ_{CW}∼+40  K. A magnetic ordering with a very small entropy change, likely associated with a noncollinear arrangement of J_{eff}=1/2 moments, is observed at T_{c}=38  K. With the application of magnetic field to the ordered state, a large moment of more than 0.35  μ_{B}/Ir is induced above 3 T, a substantially polarized J_{eff}=1/2 state. We argue that the close proximity to ferromagnetism and the presence of large fluctuations evidence that the ground state of hyperhoneycomb β-Li_{2}IrO_{3} is located in close proximity of a Kitaev spin liquid.

Curva de aprendizado e flutuações a curto e longo prazos com perimetria de freqüência dupla (FDT)

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the learning effect, short-term fluctuation and long-term fluctuation in healthy subjects undergoing frequency doubling perimetry (FDP). METHODS: Twenty healthy young subjects underwent FDT (program N30, full threshold) in one eye (right). Each subject was tested once in the first three sessions and three times in the fourth session. Both short- and long-term fluctuations were studied as the average fluctuation of all the tested points or as a point-to-point fluctuation. To study the learning effect, the MDs values of the first session were compared to the second, third and fourth sessions. RESULTS: In the short-term analysis (3 examination done in the last session), the total mean sensitivity was 31.91 ± 1.20 dB and the mean MD and PSD were 0.84 ± 1.85 and 3.73 ± 1.55 dB, respectively. The average short-term fluctuation was 1.72 ± 0.38 dB. When the four examination, performed at different visits, were compared, the average mean sensitivity of all sessions and the average long-term fluctuation were 31.75 ± 1.11 and 2.16 ± 0.26 dB, respectively. The MD averages of the first, second, third and fourth tests were 0.11 ± 2.14 dB, 0.47 ± 1.64 dB, 1.16 ± 1.62 dB and 0.98 ± 1.92 dB respectively. The MD difference between the first and the third and between the first and the fourth examinations were statistically significant (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: The threshold sensitivity detected by FDP is influenced by both short- and long-term fluctuations. We observed a mild learning effect that shoud be taken into account whenever a patient undergoes this test for the first time.

Em jogo a relação entre pesquisador e clube : futebol e processos grupais

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Metodologia para analise cinematica de volumes respiratorios parciais de nadadores

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física