The statistical accuracy of surveys on business and economic perspectives: a case study

In this paper, we develop a new decision making model and apply it in political Surveys of economic climate collect opinions of managers about the short-term future evolution of their business. Interviews are carried out on a regular basis and responses measure optimistic, neutral or pessimistic views about the economic perspectives. We propose a method to evaluate the sampling error of the average opinion derived from a particular type of survey data. Our variance estimate is useful to interpret historical trends and to decide whether changes in the index from one period to another are due to a structural change or whether ups and downs can be attributed to sampling randomness. An illustration using real data from a survey of business managers opinions is discussed.

Use of GPS for Photogrammetry, HR-342, 1993

Five test flights were conducted to study the use of Global Positioning System (GPS) in Photogrammetry, three in Iowa, one each in California and Texas. These tests show that GPS can be used to establish ground control by the static method and to determine camera location by the kinematic method. In block triangulation, six GPS controls are required and additional elevation control along the centerline is also required in strip triangulation. The camera location determined by aerial triangulation depends on the scale of the photography. The 1:3000 scale photography showed that the absolute accuracy of the camera location by GPS is better than five centimeters. The 1:40000 scale photography showed that the relative accuracy of the camera location by GPS is about one millimeter. In a strip triangulation elevation control is required in addition to the camera location by GPS. However, for block triangulation camera location by GPS is sufficient. Pre-targeting of pass and tie points gives the best results in both block and strip triangulation. In normal mapping for earth work computations the use of 1:6000 scale photography with GPS control instead of 1:3000 scale is recommended. It is recommended that research be done in the use of GPS for navigation in aerial photographic missions. It is highly recommended that research be done in the use of GPS to determine tip and tilt of the aerial camera, that is required in stereoplotting.

Airborne GPS Final Report, HR-359, 1995

The objective of this project was to use a Global Positioning System (GPS) to determine the aerial camera location and orientation that best facilitated mapping done from aerial photographs without any ground control. Four test flights were conducted. The first test flight was performed in June 1993 at St. Louis, with the objective of testing the multiantenna concept using two antenna on the aircraft. The second test in August 1993 was conducted over the Iowa State University (ISU) campus at Ames. This flight evaluated the use of GPS for pinpoint navigation. The third test flight over St. Louis was flown in October 1993, with four antenna on aircraft; its objective was to evaluate the 3DF GPS receiver and the antenna locations. On the basis of the results of these three tests, a final test flight over the Mustang Project area in Ames and the ISU campus was conducted in June 1994. Analysis of these data showed that airborne GPS can be used (1) in pinpoint navigation with an accuracy of 25 m or better, (2) to determine the location of the camera nodal point with an accuracy of 10 cm or better, and (3) to determine the orientation angles of the camera with an accuracy of 0.0001 radians or better. In addition, the exterior orientation elements determined by airborne GPS can be used to rectify aerial photos, to produce orthophotos, and in direct stereo plotting. Further research is recommended in these areas to maximize the use of airborne GPS. The report is organized in the following chapters: (1) Introduction; (2) Photogrammetry and Kinematic GPS; (3) Analysis of First Test; (4) Analysis of Second Test; (5) Analysis of Third Test; (6) Analysis of Final Test; (7) Applications of Airborne GPS; and (8) Conclusion and Recommendation.

Pile Design and Tests for Integral Abutment Bridges, HR-273, 1987

Expansion joints increase both the initial cost and the maintenance cost of bridges. Integral abutment bridges provide an attractive design alternative because expansion joints are eliminated from the bridge itself. However, the piles in these bridges are subjected to horizontal movement as the bridge expands and contracts during temperature changes. The objective of this research was to develop a method of designing piles for these conditions. Separate field tests simulating a pile and a bridge girder were conducted for three loading cases: (1) vertical load only, (2) horizontal displacement of pile head only, and (3) combined horizontal displacement of pile head with subsequent vertical load. Both tests (1) and (3) reached the same ultimate vertical load, that is, the horizontal displacement had no effect on the vertical load capacity. Several model tests were conducted in sand with a scale factor of about 1:10. Experimental results from both the field and model tests were used to develop the vertical and horizontal load-displacement properties of the soil. These properties were input into the finite element computer program Integral Abutment Bridge Two-Dimensional (IAB2D), which was developed under a previous research contract. Experimental and analytical results compared well for the test cases. Two alternative design methods, both based upon the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Specification, were developed. Alternative One is quite conservative relative to IAB2D results and does not permit plastic redistribution of forces. Alternative Two is also conservative when compared to IAB2D, but plastic redistribution is permitted. To use Alternative Two, the pile cross section must have sufficient inelastic rotation capacity before local buckling occurs. A design example for a friction pile and an end-bearing pile illustrates both alternatives.

Test result-based sampling: an efficient design for estimating the accuracy of patient safety indicators.

OBJECTIVE: Accuracy studies of Patient Safety Indicators (PSIs) are critical but limited by the large samples required due to low occurrence of most events. We tested a sampling design based on test results (verification-biased sampling [VBS]) that minimizes the number of subjects to be verified. METHODS: We considered 3 real PSIs, whose rates were calculated using 3 years of discharge data from a university hospital and a hypothetical screen of very rare events. Sample size estimates, based on the expected sensitivity and precision, were compared across 4 study designs: random and VBS, with and without constraints on the size of the population to be screened. RESULTS: Over sensitivities ranging from 0.3 to 0.7 and PSI prevalence levels ranging from 0.02 to 0.2, the optimal VBS strategy makes it possible to reduce sample size by up to 60% in comparison with simple random sampling. For PSI prevalence levels below 1%, the minimal sample size required was still over 5000. CONCLUSIONS: Verification-biased sampling permits substantial savings in the required sample size for PSI validation studies. However, sample sizes still need to be very large for many of the rarer PSIs.

A fully validated method for the determination of arsenic species in rice and infant cereal products

A full validation of inorganic arsenic (iAs), methylarsonic acid (MA), and dimethyl arsinic acid (DMA) in several types of rice and rice-based infant cereals is reported. The analytical method was developed and validated in two laboratories. The extraction of the As species was performed using nitric acid 0.2 % and hydrogen peroxide 1 %, and the coupled system liquid chromatography-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LCICP-MS) was used for speciation measurements. Detection limit (DL), quantification limit, linearity, precision, trueness, accuracy, selectivity, as well as expanded uncertainty for iAs, MA, and DMA were established. The certified reference materials (CRMs) (NMIJ 7503a, NCS ZC73008, NIST SRM 1568a) were used to check the accuracy. The method was shown to be satisfactory in two proficiency tests (PTs). The broad applicability of the method is shown from the results of analysis of 29 samples including several types of rice, rice products, and infant cereal products. Total As ranged from 40.1 to 323.7 μg As kg1. From the speciation results, iAs was predominant, and DMA was detected in some samples while MA was not detected in any sample.

Smart instrumentation for determination of ligament stiffness and ligament balance in total knee arthroplasty.

Ligament balance is an important and subjective task performed during total knee arthroplasty (TKA) procedure. For this reason, it is desirable to develop instruments to quantitatively assess the soft-tissue balance since excessive imbalance can accelerate prosthesis wear and lead to early surgical revision. The instrumented distractor proposed in this study can assist surgeons on performing ligament balance by measuring the distraction gap and applied load. Also the device allows the determination of the ligament stiffness which can contribute a better understanding of the intrinsic mechanical behavior of the knee joint. Instrumentation of the device involved the use of hall-sensors for measuring the distractor displacement and strain gauges to transduce the force. The sensors were calibrated and tested to demonstrate their suitability for surgical use. Results show the distraction gap can be measured reliably with 0.1mm accuracy and the distractive loads could be assessed with an accuracy in the range of 4N. These characteristics are consistent with those have been proposed, in this work, for a device that could assist on performing ligament balance while permitting surgeons evaluation based on his experience. Preliminary results from in vitro tests were in accordance with expected stiffness values for medial collateral ligament (MCL) and lateral collateral ligament (LCL).

Radiographic total disc replacement angle measurement accuracy using the Oxford Cobbometer: precision and bias.

Total disc replacement (TDR) clinical success has been reported to be related to the residual motion of the operated level. Thus, accurate measurement of TDR range of motion (ROM) is of utmost importance. One commonly used tool in measuring ROM is the Oxford Cobbometer. Little is known however on its accuracy (precision and bias) in measuring TDR angles. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of the Cobbometer to accurately measure radiographic TDR angles. An anatomically accurate synthetic L4-L5 motion segment was instrumented with a CHARITE artificial disc. The TDR angle and anatomical position between L4 and L5 was fixed to prohibit motion while the motion segment was radiographically imaged in various degrees of rotation and elevation, representing a sample of possible patient placement positions. An experienced observer made ten readings of the TDR angle using the Cobbometer at each different position. The Cobbometer readings were analyzed to determine measurement accuracy at each position. Furthermore, analysis of variance was used to study rotation and elevation of the motion segment as treatment factors. Cobbometer TDR angle measurements were most accurate (highest precision and lowest bias) at the centered position (95.5%), which placed the TDR directly inline with the x-ray beam source without any rotation. In contrast, the lowest accuracy (75.2%) was observed in the most rotated and off-centered view. A difference as high as 4 degrees between readings at any individual position, and as high as 6 degrees between all the positions was observed. Furthermore, the Cobbometer was unable to detect the expected trend in TDR angle projection with changing position. Although the Cobbometer has been reported to be reliable in different clinical applications, it lacks the needed accuracy to measure TDR angles and ROM. More accurate ROM measurement methods need to be developed to help surgeons and researchers assess radiological success of TDRs.

Sensitive bioassay for determination of fluconazole concentrations in plasma using a Candida albicans mutant hypersusceptible to azoles.

The antifungal agent fluconazole (FLC) is widely used in clinical practice. Monitoring FLC levels is useful in complicated clinical settings and in experimental infection models. A bioassay using Candida pseudotropicalis, a simple and cost-effective method, is validated only for FLC levels ranging from 5 to 40 mg/liter. An extension of the analytical range is needed to cover most yeast MICs. A new bioassay in RPMI agar containing methylene blue was developed using C. albicans DSY1024, a mutant rendered hypersusceptible to FLC constructed by the deletion of the multidrug efflux transporter genes CDR1, CDR2, CaMDR1, and FLU1. Reproducible standard curves were obtained with FLC concentrations in plasma ranging from 1 to 100 mg/liter (quadratic regression coefficient > 0.997). The absolute sensitivity was 0.026 microg of FLC. The method was internally validated according to current guidelines for analytical method validation. Both accuracy and precision lied in the required +/-15% range. FLC levels measured by bioassay and by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) performed with 62 plasma samples from humans and rats showed a strong correlation (coefficients, 0.979 and 0.995, respectively; percent deviations of bioassay from HPLC values, 0.44% +/- 15.31% and 2.66% +/- 7.54%, respectively). In summary, this newly developed bioassay is sensitive, simple, rapid, and inexpensive. It allows nonspecialized laboratories to determine FLC levels in plasma to within the clinically relevant concentration range and represents a useful tool for experimental treatment models.

Quantifying Accuracy Improvement in Sets of Pooled Judgments: Does Dialectical Bootstrapping Work?

Galton (1907) first demonstrated the "wisdom of crowds" phenomenon by averaging independent estimates of unknown quantities given by many individuals. Herzog and Hertwig (2009; hereafter H&H in Psychological Science) showed that individuals' own estimates can be improved by asking them to make two estimates at separate times and averaging them. H&H claimed to observe far greater improvement in accuracy when participants received "dialectical" instructions to consider why their first estimate might be wrong before making their second estimates than when they received standard instructions. We reanalyzed H&H's data using measures of accuracy that are unrelated to the frequency of identical first and second responses and found that participants in both conditions improved their accuracy to an equal degree.

Accuracy and predictability in use of AO three-dimensionally preformed titanium mesh plates for posttraumatic orbital reconstruction: a pilot study.

The aim of this study was to prospectively evaluate the accuracy and predictability of new three-dimensionally preformed AO titanium mesh plates for posttraumatic orbital wall reconstruction.We analyzed the preoperative and postoperative clinical and radiologic data of 10 patients with isolated blow-out orbital fractures. Fracture locations were as follows: floor (N = 7; 70%), medial wall (N = 1; 1%), and floor/medial wall (N = 2; 2%). The floor fractures were exposed by a standard transconjunctival approach, whereas a combined transcaruncular transconjunctival approach was used in patients with medial wall fractures. A three-dimensional preformed AO titanium mesh plate (0.4 mm in thickness) was selected according to the size of the defect previously measured on the preoperative computed tomographic (CT) scan examination and fixed at the inferior orbital rim with 1 or 2 screws. The accuracy of plate positioning of the reconstructed orbit was assessed on the postoperative CT scan. Coronal CT scan slices were used to measure bony orbital volume using OsiriX Medical Image software. Reconstructed versus uninjured orbital volume were statistically correlated.Nine patients (90%) had a successful treatment outcome without complications. One patient (10%) developed a mechanical limitation of upward gaze with a resulting handicapping diplopia requiring hardware removal. Postoperative orbital CT scan showed an anatomic three-dimensional placement of the orbital mesh plates in all of the patients. Volume data of the reconstructed orbit fitted that of the contralateral uninjured orbit with accuracy to within 2.5 cm(3). There was no significant difference in volume between the reconstructed and uninjured orbits.This preliminary study has demonstrated that three-dimensionally preformed AO titanium mesh plates for posttraumatic orbital wall reconstruction results in (1) a high rate of success with an acceptable rate of major clinical complications (10%) and (2) an anatomic restoration of the bony orbital contour and volume that closely approximates that of the contralateral uninjured orbit.

Motility tests for drugs preventing PolyQ aggregation in recombinant Caenorhabditis elegans.

The pathological formation of proteinaceous aggregates that accumulate into the brain cells of patients are hallmarks of neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and the heterogeneous group of polyglutamine (polyQ) diseases. In the polyQ diseases, the most upstream events of the pathogenic cascade are the misfolding and aggregation of proteins, such as huntingtin in Huntington's disease, that contain expanded stretch of glutamine residues above 35--‐40 repeats. This expanded polyQ stretch triggers the misfolding and aggregation of cytotoxic polyQ proteins in the neurons that cause cell death through different processes, like apoptosis, excessive inflammation, formation of free radicals, eventually leading to neuronal loss and neurodegeneration. This study focuses on the cellular network of chaperone proteins that can prevent protein aggregation by binding misfolding intermediates and may, as in the case of HSP70, actively unfold misfolded proteins into refoldable non--‐toxic ones (Hinault et al., 2010; Sharma et al., 2011). The chaperones can also collaborate with the proteasome to convert stable harmful proteins into harmless amino acids. Thus, the chaperone proteins that are the most important cellular factors of prevention and curing of protein misfolding, are negatively affected by aging (Morley et al., 2002) and fail to act properly in the neurons of aged persons, which eventually may lead to neurodegenerative pathologies. The general aim of this research was to identify least toxic drugs that can upregulate the expression of chaperone genes in cells suffering from polyQ--‐ mediated protein aggregation and degeneration. The specific aim of this study was to observe the effect of ten drugs on polyQ aggregation in a recombinant nematode Caenorhabditis elegans expressing a chimeric protein containing a sequence of 35 glutamines (Q35) fused to the green fluorescent protein in muscle cells, which causes an age--‐ and temperature--‐ dependent phenotype of accelerated paralysis. The drugs were selected after having proven their causing the overexpression of chaperone proteins in a previous wide screening of 2000 drugs on the moss plant Physcomitrella patens. The screening that we performed in this study was on these ten drugs. It suggested that piroxicam and anisindione were good reducers of polyglutamine disease mediated paralysis. A hypothesis can be made that they may act as good enhancers of the heat shock response, which causes the overexpression of many HSP chaperones and thus reduce motility impairment of polyQ disease expressing nematodes. Piroxicam was found to have the greatest effect on reducing polyQ35 proteins aggregates mediated paralysis in a dose--‐dependent manner but was also found to either have a toxic effect on wild type C.elegans, either to change its natural motility behavior, eventually reducing its motility in both cases. Chloroform should be preferred over DMSO as a drug solvent as it appears to be less toxic to C.elegans.

Dynamic Tests of a Three-Span Continuous I-Beam Highway Bridge, HR-43, 1959

This paper presents the results of the static and dynamic testing of a three-span continuous I-beam highway bridge. Live load stress frequency curves for selected points are shown, and the static and dynamic load distribution to the longitudinal composite beam members are given. The bridge has four traffic lanes with a roadway width of 48 ft. Six longitudinal continuous WF beams act compositely with the reinforced concrete slab to carry the live load. The beams have partial length cover plates at the piers. Previous research has indicated that beams with partial length cover plates have a very low fatigue strength. It was found in this research that the magnitude of the stresses due to actual highway loads were very much smaller than those computed from specification loading. Also, the larger stresses which were measured occurred a relatively small number of times. These data indicate that some requirements for reduced allowable stresses at the ends of cover plates are too conservative. The load distribution to the longitudinal beams was determined for static and moving loads and includes the effect of impact on the distribution. The effective composite section was found at various locations to evaluate the load distribution data. The composite action was in negative as well as positive moment regions. The load distribution data indicate that the lateral distribution of live load is consistent with the specifications, but that there is longitudinal distribution, and therefore the specifications are too conservative.