The Riemann-Hilbert method applied to the theory of orthogonal polynomials

Doutoramento em Matemática

Contributions to the theory of maximum entropy estimation for ill-posed models

As técnicas estatísticas são fundamentais em ciência e a análise de regressão linear é, quiçá, uma das metodologias mais usadas. É bem conhecido da literatura que, sob determinadas condições, a regressão linear é uma ferramenta estatística poderosíssima. Infelizmente, na prática, algumas dessas condições raramente são satisfeitas e os modelos de regressão tornam-se mal-postos, inviabilizando, assim, a aplicação dos tradicionais métodos de estimação. Este trabalho apresenta algumas contribuições para a teoria de máxima entropia na estimação de modelos mal-postos, em particular na estimação de modelos de regressão linear com pequenas amostras, afetados por colinearidade e outliers. A investigação é desenvolvida em três vertentes, nomeadamente na estimação de eficiência técnica com fronteiras de produção condicionadas a estados contingentes, na estimação do parâmetro ridge em regressão ridge e, por último, em novos desenvolvimentos na estimação com máxima entropia. Na estimação de eficiência técnica com fronteiras de produção condicionadas a estados contingentes, o trabalho desenvolvido evidencia um melhor desempenho dos estimadores de máxima entropia em relação ao estimador de máxima verosimilhança. Este bom desempenho é notório em modelos com poucas observações por estado e em modelos com um grande número de estados, os quais são comummente afetados por colinearidade. Espera-se que a utilização de estimadores de máxima entropia contribua para o tão desejado aumento de trabalho empírico com estas fronteiras de produção. Em regressão ridge o maior desafio é a estimação do parâmetro ridge. Embora existam inúmeros procedimentos disponíveis na literatura, a verdade é que não existe nenhum que supere todos os outros. Neste trabalho é proposto um novo estimador do parâmetro ridge, que combina a análise do traço ridge e a estimação com máxima entropia. Os resultados obtidos nos estudos de simulação sugerem que este novo estimador é um dos melhores procedimentos existentes na literatura para a estimação do parâmetro ridge. O estimador de máxima entropia de Leuven é baseado no método dos mínimos quadrados, na entropia de Shannon e em conceitos da eletrodinâmica quântica. Este estimador suplanta a principal crítica apontada ao estimador de máxima entropia generalizada, uma vez que prescinde dos suportes para os parâmetros e erros do modelo de regressão. Neste trabalho são apresentadas novas contribuições para a teoria de máxima entropia na estimação de modelos mal-postos, tendo por base o estimador de máxima entropia de Leuven, a teoria da informação e a regressão robusta. Os estimadores desenvolvidos revelam um bom desempenho em modelos de regressão linear com pequenas amostras, afetados por colinearidade e outliers. Por último, são apresentados alguns códigos computacionais para estimação com máxima entropia, contribuindo, deste modo, para um aumento dos escassos recursos computacionais atualmente disponíveis.

A Influência da personalidade e da sintomatologia na Theory of Mind

Dissertação de mestrado, Psicologia Clínica e da Saúde, Faculdade de Ciências Humanas e Sociais, Universidade do Algarve, 2015

Transformation or bureaucratisation?: the changing role of community representation in local strategic partnerships in England

The debate about the need to build social capital and to engage local communities in public policy has become a central issue in many advanced liberal societies and developing countries. In many countries new forms of governance have emerged out of a growing realisation that representative democracy by itself is no longer sufficient. One of the most significant public policy trends in the UK has been the involvement of community organisations and their members in the delivery of national policy, mediated through local systems of governance and management. One such policy area is urban regeneration. Central government now requires local authorities in England to set up Local Strategic Partnerships (LSPs) to bring together stakeholders who can prepare Community Strategies and deliver social and economic programmes which target areas of deprivation. This paper reviews the key institutional processes which must be addressed, such as representation, accountability and transformation.

The Impact of Thought Speed and Variability on Psychological State and Threat Perception: Further Exploration of the Theory of Mental Motion

Thought speed and variability are purportedly common features of specific psychological states, such as mania and anxiety. The present study explored the independent and combinational influence of these variables upon condition-specific symptoms and affective state, as proposed by Pronin and Jacobs’ (Perspect Psychol Sci, 3:461–485, 2008) theory of mental motion. A general population sample was recruited online (N = 263). Participants completed a thought speed and variability manipulation task, inducing a combination of fast/slow and varied/repetitive thought. Change in mania and anxiety symptoms was assessed through direct self-reported symptom levels and indirect, processing bias assessment (threat interpretation). Results indicated that fast and varied thought independently increased self-reported mania symptoms. Affect was significantly less positive and more negative during slow thought. No change in anxiety symptoms or threat interpretation was found between manipulation conditions. No evidence for the proposed combinational influence of speed and variability was found. Implications and avenues for therapeutic intervention are discussed.

For the Good of the Game(?): The Legacy of the Football Trust, the Football Pools & the Dangerous Seduction of Political Promise

During the late twentieth century, the United Kingdom’s football infrastructure and spectatorship underwent transformation as successive stadia disasters heightened political and public scrutiny of the game and prompted industry change. Central to this process was the government’s formation of an independent charitable organization to oversee subsequent policy implementation and grant-aid provision to clubs for safety, crowd, and spectator requirements. This entity, which began in 1975 focusing on ground improvement, developed into the Football Trust. The Trust was funded directly by the football pools companies who ran popular low-stakes football betting enterprises. Working in association with the Pools Promoters Association (PPA), and demonstrating their social responsibility towards the game’s constituents, the pools resourced a wide array of Trust activities. Yet irrespective of government mandate, the PPA and Trust were continually confronted by political and economic obstacles that threatened the effectiveness of their arrangements. In this paper the history of the Football Trust is investigated, along with its partnership with the PPA, and its relationship with the government within the context of broader political shifts, stadia catastrophes, official inquiries, and commercial threats. It is contended that while the Trust/PPA partnership had a respectable legacy, their history afforded little protection against adverse contemporary conditions.

The brain-sex theory of occupational choice: a counterexample

The brain-sex theory of occupational choice suggests that males and females in male-typical careers show a male pattern of cognitive ability in terms of better spatial than verbal performance on cognitive tests with the reverse pattern for females and males in female-typical careers, These differences are thought to result from patterns of cerebral functional lateralisation. This study Sought Such occupationally related effects using synonym generation (verbal ability) and mental rotation (spatial ability) tasks used previously. It also used entrants to these careers as participants to examine whether patterns of cognitive abilities might predate explicit training and practice. Using a population of entrants to sex-differentiated University Courses, a moderate occupational effect on the synonym generation task was found, along with a weak (p<.10) sex effect on the mental rotation task. Highest performance on the mental rotation task was by female Students in fashion design, a female-dominated occupation which makes substantial visuospatial demands and attracts many students with literacy problems such as dyslexia. This group then appears to be a counterexample to the brain-sex theory. However, methodological issues Surrounding previous Studies are highlighted: the simple synonym task appears to show limited discrimination of the sexes, leading to questions concerning the legitimacy of inferences about lateralisation based on scores from that test. Moreover, the human figure-based mental rotation task appears to tap the wrong aspect of visuospatial skill, likely to be needed for male-typical courses such as engineering, Since the fashion-clesign career is also one that attracts disproportionately many male students whose sexual orientation is homosexual, data were examined for evidence of female-typical patterns of cognitive performance among that subgroup. This was not found. This study therefore provides Do evidence for the claim that female-pattern cerebral functional lateralisation is likely in gay males.

Higher-order moments in the theory of diversifying and portfolio composition

This paper examines the role of higher-order moments in portfolio choice within an expected-utility framework. We consider two-, three-, four- and five-parameter density functions for portfolio returns and derive exact conditions under which investors would all be optimally plungers rather than diversifiers. Through comparative statics we show the importance of higher-order risk preference properties, such as riskiness, prudence and temperance, in determining plunging behaviour. Empirical estimates for the S&P500 provide evidence for the optimality of diversification.

Understanding the internet banking adoption by Portuguese customers - a unified theory of acceptance and use of technology and perceived risk application.

Trabalho de Projeto apresentado como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Work ethic and the legacies of political regimes

This article studies the cross-country differences in work ethic and claims that different political regimes transmitted different work ethics that still persist today. Using the World Values Survey and starting our political regime analysis in 1900, we find that Democratic regimes promote more effectively work relevance and competitiveness than Autocratic and Anocratic regimes, and that the political regime history of the country is more important than the present level of democracy. Moreover, we prove that this differences were transmitted through generations by parents, who optimally choose what work ethic to transmit taking into account their own values.

Factors affecting a woman's decision to leave an abusive relationship : the theory of planned behaviour /

The present study tested the appHcabiUty of Ajzen's (1985) theory of planned behaviour (TPB), an extension of Fishbein and Ajzen's (1975) theory of reasoned action (TRA), for the first time, in the context of abused women's decision to leave their abusive relationships. The TPB, as a means of predicting women's decision to leave their abusive partners' was drawn from Strube's (1988, 1991) proposed decision-making model based on the principle that the decision-making process is a rational, deliberative process, and regardless of outcome, was a result of a logical assessment of the available data. As a means of predicting those behaviours not under volitional control, Ajzen's (1985) TPB incorporated a measure of perceived behavioural control. Data were collected in two phases, ranging from 6 months to 1 year apart. It was hypothesized that, to the extent that an abused woman held positive attitudes, subjective norms conducive to leaving, and perceived control over leaving, she would form an intention to leave and thus, increase the likelihood of actually leaving her partner. Furthermore, it was expected that perceptions of control would predict leaving behaviour over and above attitude and subjective norm. In addition, severity and frequency of abuse were assessed, as were demographic variables. The TPB failed to account significantly for variability in either intentions or leaving behaviour. All of the variance was attributed to those variables associated with the theory of reasoned action, with social influence emerging as the strongest predictor of a woman's intentions. The poor performance of this model is attributed to measurement problems with aspects of attitude and perceived control, as well as a lack of power due to the small sample size. The insufficiency of perceived control to predict behaviour also suggests that, on the surface at least, other factors may be at work in this context. Implications of these results, and recommendations such as, the importance of obtaining representative samples, the inclusion of self-esteem and emotions as predictor variables in this model, a reevaluation of the target behaviovu" as nonvolitional, and longitudinal studies spanning a longer time period for future research within the context of decision-making are discussed.