Reliability Nonparametric Bayesian Estimation in Parallel Systems

Relevant results for (sub-)distribution functions related to parallel systems are discussed. The reverse hazard rate is defined using the product integral. Consequently, the restriction of absolute continuity for the involved distributions can be relaxed. The only restriction is that the sets of discontinuity points of the parallel distributions have to be disjointed. Nonparametric Bayesian estimators of all survival (sub-)distribution functions are derived. Dual to the series systems that use minimum life times as observations, the parallel systems record the maximum life times. Dirichlet multivariate processes forming a class of prior distributions are considered for the nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the component distribution functions, and the system reliability. For illustration, two striking numerical examples are presented.

Comparison for three Classification Techniques

In this paper we show the results of a comparison simulation study for three classification techniques: Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR), No Metric Discriminant Analysis (NDA) and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA). The measure used to compare the performance of the three techniques was the Error Classification Rate (ECR). We found that MLR and LDA techniques have similar performance and that they are better than DNA when the population multivariate distribution is Normal or Logit-Normal. For the case of log-normal and Sinh(-1)-normal multivariate distributions we found that MLR had the better performance.

Developing and Facilitating a Successful Hybrid Statistics Course

This presentation will outline an effective model for a Hybrid Statistics course. The course continues to be very successful, incorporating on-line instruction, testing, blogs, and above all, a data analysis project driven trajectory motivating students to engage more aggressively in the class and rise up to the challenge of writing an original research paper. Obstacles, benefits and successes of this endeavor will be addressed.

Nonparametric specification tests for conditional duration models

This paper deals with the testing of autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models by gauging the distance between the parametric density and hazard rate functions implied by the duration process and their non-parametric estimates. We derive the asymptotic justification using the functional delta method for fixed and gamma kernels, and then investigate the finite-sample properties through Monte Carlo simulations. Although our tests display some size distortion, bootstrapping suffices to correct the size without compromising their excellent power. We show the practical usefulness of such testing procedures for the estimation of intraday volatility patterns.

Nonparametric entropy-based tests of independence between stochastic processes

This paper develops nonparametric tests of independence between two stationary stochastic processes. The testing strategy boils down to gauging the closeness between the joint and the product of the marginal stationary densities. For that purpose, I take advantage of a generalized entropic measure so as to build a class of nonparametric tests of independence. Asymptotic normality and local power are derived using the functional delta method for kernels, whereas finite sample properties are investigated through Monte Carlo simulations.

Nonparametric tail risk, macroeconomics and stock returns: predictability and risk premia

This paper proposes a new novel to calculate tail risks incorporating risk-neutral information without dependence on options data. Proceeding via a non parametric approach we derive a stochastic discount factor that correctly price a chosen panel of stocks returns. With the assumption that states probabilities are homogeneous we back out the risk neutral distribution and calculate five primitive tail risk measures, all extracted from this risk neutral probability. The final measure is than set as the first principal component of the preliminary measures. Using six Fama-French size and book to market portfolios to calculate our tail risk, we find that it has significant predictive power when forecasting market returns one month ahead, aggregate U.S. consumption and GDP one quarter ahead and also macroeconomic activity indexes. Conditional Fama-Macbeth two-pass cross-sectional regressions reveal that our factor present a positive risk premium when controlling for traditional factors.

Undersampled Critical Branching Processes on Small-World and Random Networks Fail to Reproduce the Statistics of Spike Avalanches

The power-law size distributions obtained experimentally for neuronal avalanches are an important evidence of criticality in the brain. This evidence is supported by the fact that a critical branching process exhibits the same exponent t~3=2. Models at criticality have been employed to mimic avalanche propagation and explain the statistics observed experimentally. However, a crucial aspect of neuronal recordings has been almost completely neglected in the models: undersampling. While in a typical multielectrode array hundreds of neurons are recorded, in the same area of neuronal tissue tens of thousands of neurons can be found. Here we investigate the consequences of undersampling in models with three different topologies (two-dimensional, small-world and random network) and three different dynamical regimes (subcritical, critical and supercritical). We found that undersampling modifies avalanche size distributions, extinguishing the power laws observed in critical systems. Distributions from subcritical systems are also modified, but the shape of the undersampled distributions is more similar to that of a fully sampled system. Undersampled supercritical systems can recover the general characteristics of the fully sampled version, provided that enough neurons are measured. Undersampling in two-dimensional and small-world networks leads to similar effects, while the random network is insensitive to sampling density due to the lack of a well-defined neighborhood. We conjecture that neuronal avalanches recorded from local field potentials avoid undersampling effects due to the nature of this signal, but the same does not hold for spike avalanches. We conclude that undersampled branching-process-like models in these topologies fail to reproduce the statistics of spike avalanches.

Integridade tissular de pacientes com úlceras venosas: um estudo baseado na Classificação dos Resultados de Enfermagem

The venous ulcer is an epidemiological problem of high prevalence, causing disability and dependence. Assess the tissue impairment level of patients with venous lesions, within a nursing referential, is relevant for the implementation of a directed assistance to specific clientele. Thus, this work aims to characterize the health status regarding the integrity the lower limbs skin of patients with venous ulcers, according to the of tissue integrity outcome indicators from the Nursing Outcomes Classification. A cross-sectional study conducted in a university hospital in Natal - Rio Grande do Norte. The sample consisted of 50 participants, selected through consecutive sampling. Data collection occurred through a interview and physical examination form and a operational definitions tool for indicators of the nursing Tissue Integrity outcome directed to patients with venous ulcer, applied from February to June 2012. Data analysis was done by descriptive statistics and nonparametric tests (Spearman, Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests). The project was approved by the Research Ethics Committee with protocol 608/11 and Presentation Certificate to Ethical Consideration No. 0038.0.294.000-11. The results were presented using three scientific articles derivatives of research. It was found that the indicators show moderate impairment, light and not impaired, as the median. The respondents had an average of 59.72 years, 66% female, 50% were retired, 60% with a partner, 44% had arterial hypertension, 26% allergies, 20% diabetes mellitus, 96% were sedentary, 14% drank alcohol and 6% were smokers. There was a statistically significant correlation of low intensity between age and hydration (p=0.032; rs=-0.304) and skin desquamation (p=0.026; rs=-0.316), family income and necrosis (p=0.012; rs=-0.353); Ankle Brachial Index and tissue perfusion (p=0,044; rs=-0,329); Diabetes Mellitus and texture (p=0.015) and tissue perfusion (p=0.026); allergy and texture (p=0.034), physical activity and hydration (p=0.034), smoking and thickness (p=0.018), and alcohol consumption and exudate (p=0.045). We conclude that the patients had light to moderate impairment, indicating a good state of health on the integrity of the skin of the lower limbs, according to the indicators of the outcome of tissue integrity Classification Nursing Outcomes valued in the present study. It is believed that the evaluation of impairment tissue using a self-nursing system and its relation with socioeconomic, clinical and risk factors are unique tools in the care planning and in the wound healing

Variações horárias na entrada e saída dos golfinhos-rotadores e sua relação com fatores ambientais, na Baía dos Golfinhos em Fernando de Noronha PE

The dolphins are found in all world s marine environments, except for poles. On Brazil, the major concentration of this animals is on Fernando de Noronha Islands, wich have a tropical climate with two well-defined rainfall seasons: dry and rainy season. The Baía dos Golfinhos, wich is the most crowded piece of dolphins on the archipelago. These research looks for to characterize the circadian rhythms of the spinner dolphin behavior, Stenella longirostris, on the Baía dos Golfinhos occupation, at the Fernando de Noronha islands, Brazil s northeast, according to the fluctuations of environment that they all are inserted. The research was realized daily between 1991 January and 2009 December, with observations from a fixed point up to Mirante dos Golfinhos, located on Baía dos Golfinhos. The data was examined with the PASW Statistics 18 program, up to nonparametric tests, being analyzed on the incoming and out coming time of the spinner dolphins and the relationship with moon phases, the wind incidence, and the rainfall season, the dolphins were inserted. The spinner dolphins diurnal rhythms are influenced by moon phases, the spinner dolphins arrival at Baía dos Golfinhos earlier when it s full moon because of the high luminosity at night cause a bigger food efficiency for these animals. The outgoing time of spinner dolphins didn t show statistic difference between moon phases, despite follows the same pattern for the incoming time. When the spinner dolphins are submitted to bigger wind incidence conditions around the archipelago, the dolphins come early to the Baía dos Golfinhos, since that one is protected from wind that reaches Fernando de Noronha, the spinner dolphins tends to arrive later and leave earlier of the bay because the rain may cause adverse conditions for your rest.

Influência da textura na preensão de indivíduos com Síndrome de Down

INTRODUÇÃO: Diversos estudos disponibilizam evidências sobre características do desempenho motor e cognitivo de indivíduos com Síndrome de Down (SD), porém poucos estudos analisam a força muscular nestes indivíduos. As alterações apresentadas por indivíduos com SD podem manifestar-se funcionalmente e interferir na sua capacidade de desempenhar de forma independente diversas atividades e tarefas da rotina diária. OBJETIVO: O presente estudo teve como objetivo analisar a influência da textura do objeto na força de preensão palmar em indivíduos com Síndrome de Down. Participaram do estudo dez indivíduos com SD, com idade entre 4 e 30 anos. MÉTODO: A análise da força de preensão palmar foi mensurada por meio de um transdutor de força. A tarefa proposta para a coleta dos dados foi realizar a preensão do transdutor, revestido com diferentes texturas, transportá-lo até um ponto previamente demarcado, e posteriormente o retorno à posição inicial. Os dados obtidos foram analisados por meio de estatística descritiva e não-paramétrica. RESULTADOS: Os dados da estatística descritiva permitiram observar que a textura áspera foi a que exigiu menor força de preensão palmar dos participantes neste estudo, no entanto a análise não-paramétrica indicou não haver diferença estatisticamente significativa. CONCLUSÃO: Os resultados deste estudo indicam que textura do objeto não influenciou a força de preensão palmar executada pelos indivíduos com Síndrome de Down.

Avaliação da informação de websites turísticos das cidades-sede da copa 2014

This study aims to analyze tourist information provided by the official websites of the 2014 FIFA World Cup host cities. The framework developed by Díaz (2005) was applied to analyze different aspects, such as: local tourist information, tourist services distribution, communication and interaction between website and users, and website foreign language versions. This dissertation describes how society and tourism are related by analyzing the consequences of technological evolution in the travel and tourism sector, showing the importance of the use of information and communication technology to provide accurate, upto- date and low-cost information to tourist destinations. Because of the nature of the study, the research subjects are the 12 Brazilian host cities represented by their respective official webpages (cities, states and convention bureaus), and also Brazil s official website, totalizing 36 elements to be analyzed. The methodology has been characterized as descriptive and exploratory with quantitative analysis, and also using desk research and survey literature review. In order to analyze the data collected, parametric and nonparametric statistics tests were used, such as: variance analysis (ANOVA and KRUSKAL-WALLIS) to measure means variance between groups combined with multiple comparison tests (Tukey and Games Howell); nonparametric correlations tests (Kendall s Tau b); and cluster analyses. Finally, Microsoft Excel was used to collect data and SPSS for managing data through quantitative analyses tests. Overall, the websites of the south region showed better results than the other Brazilian regions. Despite this result, the data analysis demonstrated that the available tourist information are incomplete as it was verified that tourist host cities websites are unable to provide all the information needed for the web visitors to organize and plan their journey. This means that visitors have to look for more information in other sources

Recalled and recorded bowel habits confirm early onset and high frequency of constipation in day-care nursery children

CONTEXTO: Mães relatam início precoce de constipação em crianças atendidas em clínicas de gastroenterologia. OBJETIVOS: Estudar o hábito intestinal em crianças de baixa idade na comunidade, para avaliar se início precoce da constipação é confirmado neste contexto e se há concordância entre o hábito intestinal relatado e o registrado prospectivamente. MÉTODOS: Obtiveram-se dados sobre evacuações de 57 crianças com idade 6.0-40.7 meses, mediante relato materno (questionário sobre características fecais predominantes) e, a seguir, foram registradas 1.934 evacuações em casa e na creche. O hábito intestinal foi classificado como adequado, constipação, diarréia funcional, outro hábito intestinal, conforme frequência evacuatória e proporção das características fecais (macias, duras e/ou que escorrem). Usaram-se dois critérios para classificar o hábito intestinal registrado, devido indefinição no ponto de corte para fezes duras na identificação de constipação em crianças: critério predominante e critério adulto, respectivamente com >50% e >25% de evacuações com consistência alterada. Usou-se estatística não-paramétrica e, para concordância entre hábito intestinal relatado e registrado, o índice Kappa. RESULTADOS: Constipação ocorreu em 17.5%, 10.5%, 19.3% das crianças, respectivamente pelo relato e pelo registro segundo critérios predominante e adulto. Constipação foi o hábito intestinal mais frequentemente relatado, versus 12.3% outro hábito intestinal. Só uma criança se classificou como tendo diarréia funcional (pelo critério adulto). Concordância entre o hábito intestinal relatado e o registrado foi razoável (fair) para constipação, pelos critérios predominante e adulto (K=0.28 e 0.24, respectivamente), mas apenas leve (slight) para os demais hábito intestinal (K <0.16). Entretanto, dados individuais indicaram melhor relação entre relato de constipação com o critério adulto do que com o critério predominante. CONCLUSÕES: Confirmou-se que constipação é frequente e de início precoce. Concordância razoável entre o hábito intestinal relatado e o registrado segundo os dois critérios indica que o relato materno é razoavelmente confiável para detectar constipação.

Prospective Evaluation of Dietary Treatment in Childhood Constipation: High Dietary Fiber and Wheat Bran Intake Are Associated With Constipation Amelioration

Objectives: The aim of the study was to evaluate, over 24 months, the intake of dietary fiber (DF) and the bowel habit (BH) of constipated children advised a DF-rich diet containing wheat bran.Patients and Methods: BH and dietary data of 28 children with functional constipation defined by the Boston criteria were obtained at visit 1 (V1, n = 28) and at 4 follow-up visits (V2-V5, n = 80). At each visit the BH was rated BAD (worse/unaltered; improved but still complications) or RECOVERY (REC) (improved, no complications; asymptomatic), and a food intake questionnaire was applied. DF intake was calculated according to age (year)+5 to 10 g/day and bran intake according to international tables. Nonparametric statistics were used.Results: Median age (range) was 7.25 years (0.25-15.6 years); 21 children underwent bowel washout (most before V1/V2), and 14 had the last visit at V3/V4. DF intake, bran intake, and the BH rate significantly increased at V2 and remained higher than at V1 through V2 to V5. At V1, median DF intake was 29.9% below the minimum recommended and at the last visit 49.9% above it. Twenty-four children accepted bran at 60 visits, at which median bran intake was 20 g/day and median proportion of DF due to bran 26.9%. Children had significantly higher DF and higher bran intake at V2 to V5 at which they had REC than at those at which they presented BAD BH. DF intake > age+10 g/day was associated with bran acceptance and REC. At the last visit 21 children presented REC (75%); 20 of them were asymptomatic and 18 were off washout/laxatives.Conclusions: High DF and bran intake are feasible in constipated children and contribute to amelioration of constipation.