Solvency Capital estimation and Risk Measures

This paper examines why a financial entity’s solvency capital estimation might be underestimated if the total amount required is obtained directly from a risk measurement. Using Monte Carlo simulation we show that, in some instances, a common risk measure such as Value-at-Risk is not subadditive when certain dependence structures are considered. Higher risk evaluations are obtained for independence between random variables than those obtained in the case of comonotonicity. The paper stresses, therefore, the relationship between dependence structures and capital estimation.

Law and the practise of principle in diverse societies

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a la London School of Economics and Political Science, United Kingdom, entre 2007 i 2009. L’objecte principal del projecte ha estat analitzar les implicacions jurídico-polítiques i institucionals d’una teoria de la justícia i la igualtat liberals aplicada a societats multiculturals amb un marcat predomini de la diversitat cultural. L’anàlisi desenvolupa una línia d'investigació interdisciplinar - entre el dret i la teoria política - iniciada en una tesis doctoral sobre multiculturalisme i drets de les minories culturals (UPF, 2000) que va culminar en la publicació de Group Rights as Human Rights (Springer, 2006). La recerca adopta com a punt de partida les conclusions de l'esmentada obra, en especial, la rellevància del reconeixement de drets col•lectius; tanmateix, el tipus de qüestions plantejades, l’enfoc i la metodologia emprades són substancialment diferents. En concret, s'adrecen preguntes específiques sobre el model i aspiracions del constitucionalisme democràtic i el paper del dret en contextos multiculturals. També s’atorga un pes central a la dimensió institucional dels models de gestió de la diversitat que s’analitzen, prioritzant un enfocament comparatiu a partir de l’estudi de controvèrsies concretes. L’objectiu és superar algunes limitacions importants de la literatura actual, com ara la tendència a examinar en abstracte la compatibilitat de determinades demandes amb el constitucionalisme democràtic, sense abordar el funcionament d'estratègies de gestió de la diversitat cultural emprades en contextos concrets. Els treballs producte d'aquest projecte articulen les línies bàsiques d’un model pluralista, basat en principis més que en regles, que desafia els plantejaments dominants actualment. Aquest model es caracteritza pel compromís amb la legitimitat i igualtat comparatives, rebutjant el paternalisme i les visions liberals típiques sobre el paper de la regulació. La presumpció de l’“standing” moral dels grups identitaris és fonamental per tal de considerar-los interlocutors vàlids amb interessos genuïns. També s’argumenta que la integració social en contextos multiculturals no depèn tant de l’eliminació del conflicte sinó, sobre tot, d’una gestió eficient que eviti abusos de poder sistemàtics. El model defensa el rol del dret en la institucionalització del diàleg intercultural, però admet que el diàleg no necessàriament condueix a l’acord o a una estructura reguladora coherent i uniforme. Les aspiracions del ordre jurídic pluralista són més modestes: afavorir la negociació i resolució en cada conflicte, malgrat la persistència de la fragmentació i la provisionalitat dels acords. La manca d'un marc regulador comú esdevé una virtut en la mesura que permet la interacció de diferents subordres; una interacció governada per una multiplicitat de regles no necessàriament harmòniques. Els avantatges i problemes d’aquest model s'analitzen a partir de l'anàlisi de l’estructura fragmentària de l'ordre jurídic internacional i del règim Europeu de drets humans.

COAC "To Protect and to Serve" the separate representation of children in private law proceedings (PDF 379 KB)

Children Order Advisory Committee discussion paper on separate representation of children in private law proceedings

Assessment of adult formulas for glomerular filtration rate estimation in children.

BACKGROUND: Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) is an important diagnostic instrument in clinical practice. The National Kidney Foundation-Kidney Disease Quality Initiative (NKF-KDOQI) guidelines do not recommend using formulas developed for adults to estimate GFR in children; however, studies confirming these recommendations are scarce. The aim of our study was to evaluate the accuracy of the new Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) formula, the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula, and the Cockcroft-Gault formula in children with various stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD). METHODS: A total of 550 inulin clearance (iGFR) measurements for 391 children were analyzed. The cohort was divided into three groups: group 1, with iGFR >90 ml/min/1.73 m(2); group 2, with iGFR between 60 and 90 ml/min/1.73 m(2); group 3, with iGFR of <60 ml/min/1.73 m(2). RESULTS: All formulas overestimate iGFR with a significant bias (p < 0.001), present poor accuracies, and have poor Spearman correlations. For an accuracy of 10 %, only 11, 6, and 27 % of the eGFRs are accurate when using the MDRD, CKD-EPI, and Cockcroft-Gault formulas, respectively. For an accuracy of 30 %, these formulas do not reach the NKF-KDOQI guidelines for validation, with only 25, 20, and 70 % of the eGFRs, respectively, being accurate. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our results, the performances of all of these formulas are unreliable for eGFR in children across all CKD stages and cannot therefore be applied in the pediatric population group.

NI Child Care Law - The Rough Guide (PDF 328 KB)

This document provides a practical guide to Northern Ireland child care law.

Food availability dictates the timing of parturition in insectivorous mouse-eared bats

Which of these two confounding factors, weather or food availability - that largely correlate and interact - controls the timing of parturition in insectivorous bats? To answer this question. we took advantage of a predator-prey system that offers a unique opportunity to perform natural experiments. The phenology of reproduction of two sibling bat species that inhabit the same colonial roosts, but exploit different feeding niches. was investigated. Myotis myotis feeds mainly on carabid beetles, a food source available from the end of hibernation onwards, whereas bush crickets, the main prey of M. blythii, are not available early in the season due to their successive instars; cockchafers are actually the sole possible alternative prey for M. blythii at that time of the year, but they occur every third year only, independently of local weather conditions. By comparing the species responses to the presence/absence of cockchafers, we could test the hypothesis that food availability, rather than climate. influences the timing of bat parturition. Our data show that Nt. blythii gave birth, on average. 10 d later than M. myotis in years without cockchafers, whilst parturition (1) was synchronous during cockchafer years, and (2) did not show much among-year time variation in M. myotis. This suggests that food availability is the chief factor regulating the timing of parturition in mouse-eared bats.

Bone mineral density (BMD), micro-architecture estimation (TBS) and vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) extracted from a single DXA device in combination with clinical risk factors improve significantly the identification of women at high risk of fracture

Introduction: Osteoporosis (OP) is a systemic skeletal disease characterized by a low bone mineral density (BMD) and a micro-architectural (MA) deterioration. Clinical risk factors (CRF) are often used as a MA approximation. MA is yet evaluable in daily practice by the Trabecular Bone Score (TBS) measure. TBS is a novel grey-level texture measurement reflecting bone micro-architecture based on the use of experimental variograms of 2D projection images. TBS is very simple to obtain, by reanalyzing a lumbar DXA-scan. TBS has proven to have diagnosis and prognosis value, partially independent of CRF and BMD. The aim of the OsteoLaus cohort is to combine in daily practice the CRF and the information given by DXA (BMD, TBS and vertebral fracture assessment (VFA)) to better identify women at high fracture risk. Method: The OsteoLaus cohort (1400 women 50 to 80 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland) started in 2010. This study is derived from the cohort COLAUS who started in Lausanne in 2003. The main goals of COLAUS is to obtain information on the epidemiology and genetic determinants of cardiovascular risk in 6700 men and women. CRF for OP, bone ultrasound of the heel, lumbar spine and hip BMD, VFA by DXA and MA evaluation by TBS are recorded in OsteoLaus. Preliminary results are reported. Results: We included 631 women: mean age 67.4±6.7 y, BMI 26.1±4.6, mean lumbar spine BMD 0.943±0.168 (T-score -1.4 SD), TBS 1.271±0.103. As expected, correlation between BMD and site matched TBS is low (r2=0.16). Prevalence of VFx grade 2/3, major OP Fx and all OP Fx is 8.4%, 17.0% and 26.0% respectively. Age- and BMI-adjusted ORs (per SD decrease) are 1.8 (1.2- 2.5), 1.6 (1.2-2.1), 1.3 (1.1-1.6) for BMD for the different categories of fractures and 2.0 (1.4-3.0), 1.9 (1.4-2.5), 1.4 (1.1-1.7) for TBS respectively. Only 32 to 37% of women with OP Fx have a BMD < -2.5 SD or a TBS < 1.200. If we combine a BMD < -2.5 SD or a TBS < 1.200, 54 to 60% of women with an osteoporotic Fx are identified. Conclusion: As in the already published studies, these preliminary results confirm the partial independence between BMD and TBS. More importantly, a combination of TBS subsequent to BMD increases significantly the identification of women with prevalent OP Fx which would have been miss-classified by BMD alone. For the first time we are able to have complementary information about fracture (VFA), density (BMD), micro- and macro architecture (TBS & HAS) from a simple, low ionizing radiation and cheap device: DXA. Such complementary information is very useful for the patient in the daily practice and moreover will likely have an impact on cost effectiveness analysis.

Disparity in the timing of vertebrate diversification events between the northern and southern hemispheres.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Climatic oscillations throughout the Quaternary had profound effects on temperate biodiversity, but the extent of Quaternary climate change was more severe in temperate regions of the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere. We sought to determine whether this geographic disparity differentially influenced the timing of intraspecific diversification events within ectothermic and endothermic vertebrate species. Using published phylogenetic hypotheses, we gathered data on the oldest intraspecific diversification event within mammal, bird, freshwater fish, amphibian, and reptile species from temperate-zone areas. We then tested whether the timing of diversification events differed between hemispheres. RESULTS: Our analyses provide strong evidence that vertebrates from temperate regions of the northern hemisphere are younger than those from the southern hemisphere. However, we find little evidence to suggest that this relationship differs between endotherms versus ectotherms, or that it varies widely across the five classes of vertebrates that we considered. In addition, we find that on average, endothermic species are much younger than ectothermic species. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that geographic variation in the magnitude of climatic oscillations during the Quaternary led to substantial disparity in the timing of intraspecific diversification events between northern and southern hemisphere vertebrates, and that the magnitude of this divergence is largely congruent across vertebrate taxa.

Association of adiposity genetic variants with menarche timing in 92,105 women of European descent.

Obesity is of global health concern. There are well-described inverse relationships between female pubertal timing and obesity. Recent genome-wide association studies of age at menarche identified several obesity-related variants. Using data from the ReproGen Consortium, we employed meta-analytical techniques to estimate the associations of 95 a priori and recently identified obesity-related (body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)(2)), waist circumference, and waist:hip ratio) single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with age at menarche in 92,116 women of European descent from 38 studies (1970-2010), in order to estimate associations between genetic variants associated with central or overall adiposity and pubertal timing in girls. Investigators in each study performed a separate analysis of associations between the selected SNPs and age at menarche (ages 9-17 years) using linear regression models and adjusting for birth year, site (as appropriate), and population stratification. Heterogeneity of effect-measure estimates was investigated using meta-regression. Six novel associations of body mass index loci with age at menarche were identified, and 11 adiposity loci previously reported to be associated with age at menarche were confirmed, but none of the central adiposity variants individually showed significant associations. These findings suggest complex genetic relationships between menarche and overall obesity, and to a lesser extent central obesity, in normal processes of growth and development.

Laboratory estimation of the effects of increasing temperatures on the duration of gonotrophic cycle of Anopheles albimanus (Diptera: Culicidae)

The increase of malaria transmission in the Pacific Coast of Colombia during the occurrence of El Niño warm event has been found not to be linked to increases in the density of the vector Anopheles albimanus, but to other temperature-sensitive variables such as longevity, duration of the gonotrophic cycle or the sporogonic period of Plasmodium. The present study estimated the effects of temperature on duration of the gonotrophic cycle and on maturation of the ovaries of An. albimanus. Blood fed adult mosquitoes were exposed to temperatures of 24, 27, and 30°C, held individually in oviposition cages and assessed at 12 h intervals. At 24, 27, and 30°C the mean development time of the oocytes was 91.2 h (95% C.I.: 86.5-96), 66.2 h (61.5-70.8), and 73.1 h (64-82.3), respectively. The mean duration of the gonotrophic cycle for these three temperatures was 88.4 h (81.88-94.9), 75 h (71.4-78.7), and 69.1 h (64.6-73.6) respectively. These findings indicate that both parameters in An. albimanus are reduced when temperatures rose from 24 to 30°C, in a nonlinear manner. According to these results the increase in malaria transmission during El Niño in Colombia could be associated with a shortening of the gonotrophic cycle in malaria vectors, which could enhance the frequency of man-vector contact, affecting the incidence of the disease.

Factsheet on case-law on the rights of older people

The Press Service of the European Court of Human Rights published in June 2014 a factsheet on the Court’s case-law on the human rights of older people. This collection shows that even though the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) does not explicitly refer to older persons nor to age discrimination, the Strasbourg Court can play an important role as a guardian of the rights of older people. Read more here.