647 resultados para Speculative bubbles
Resumo:
The Deccan Trap basalts are the remnants of a massive series of lava flows that erupted at the K/T boundary and covered 1-2 million km2 of west-central India. This eruptive event is of global interest because of its possible link to the major mass extinction event, and there is much debate about the duration of this massive volcanic event. In contrast to isotopic or paleomagnetic dating methods, I explore an alternative approach to determine the lifecycle of the magma chambers that supplied the lavas, and extend the concept to obtain a tighter constraint on Deccan’s duration. My method relies on extracting time information from elemental and isotopic diffusion across zone boundaries in individual crystals. I determined elemental and Sr-isotopic variations across abnormally large (2-5 cm) plagioclase crystals from the Thalghat and Kashele “Giant Plagioclase Basalts” from the lowermost Jawhar and Igatpuri Formations respectively in the thickest Western Ghats section near Mumbai. I also obtained bulk rock major, trace and rare earth element chemistry of each lava flow from the two formations. Thalghat flows contain only 12% zoned crystals, with 87 Sr/86Sr ratios of 0.7096 in the core and 0.7106 in the rim, separated by a sharp boundary. In contrast, all Kashele crystals have a wider range of 87Sr/86Sr values, with multiple zones. Geochemical modeling of the data suggests that the two types of crystals grew in distinct magmatic environments. Modeling intracrystalline diffusive equilibration between the core and rim of Thalghat crystals led me to obtain a crystal growth rate of 2.03x10-10 cm/s and a residence time of 780 years for the crystals in the magma chamber(s). Employing some assumptions based on field and geochronologic evidence, I extrapolated this residence time to the entire Western Ghats and obtained an estimate of 25,000–35,000 years for the duration of Western Ghats volcanism. This gave an eruptive rate of 30–40 km3/yr, which is much higher than any presently erupting volcano. This result will remain speculative until a similarly detailed analytical-modeling study is performed for the rest of the Western Ghats formations.
Resumo:
Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubblelike deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the nonfundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.
Resumo:
This article defines multispecies ethnography and links this scholarship to broader currents within academia, including in the biosciences, philosophy, political ecology, and animal welfare activism. The article is organized around a set of productive tensions identified in the review of the literature. It ends with a discussion of the “ethnographic” in multispecies ethnography, urging ethnographers to bring a “speculative wonder” to their mode of inquiry and writing.
Resumo:
Post-crisis Argentina is a case study of crisis management through debt restructuring. This article examines how Argentina negotiated the external debt in the wake of the sovereign default in December 2001 and now confronts challenges posed by holdout creditors—the so called “vulture funds”. It argues that debt restructuring has put a straitjacket on the national economy, making it virtually impossible for healthy growth short of a break with the international economic order. While Argentina has successfully restructured a $95 billion debt with an unprecedented “hair cut” (around 70% reduction in “net value of debt”), a sustainable growth appears out of reach as long as reliance on the government debt market prevails. In this cycle, the transmission belt of financial crisis to developing countries is characterized by the entry of highly speculative players such as hedge funds, conflicts of interests embedded in “sovereign debt restructuring” (SDR) and vulnerabilities associated with “emerging market debt”.
Resumo:
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) needs a design basis to properly design a PJM and ventilation systems for the Waste Treatment Plant vessels. In order to meet DOE's needs for proper ventilation and PJM design technologies, Florida International University's Hemispheric Center for Environmental Technology (FIU-HCET) has studied the properties for gas holdup in selected non Newtonian fluids with physicochemical properties comparable to nuclear waste. The primary purpose of this research was to study the holdup properties of selected non - Newtonian simulants and quantify the level of gas holdup in selected simulants using continuous argon injection in five gallons vessel. Gas holdup tests involved the injection of gas bubbles in simulant waste in scaled prototypic vessels. The holdup was measured as a function of injection rate in the vessel. Tests were performed with both Laponite, Clay 12%, Clay 27% and Qard 13.5. This work showed that the percentage of holdup was about 3% for all simulants despite the significant differences in rheology.
Resumo:
Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubble-like deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the non-fundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.
Resumo:
Vodyanitskii mud volcano is located at a depth of about 2070 m in the Sorokin Trough, Black sea. It is a 500-m wide and 20-m high cone surrounded by a depression, which is typical of many mud volcanoes in the Black Sea. 75 kHz sidescan sonar show different generations of mud flows that include mud breccia, authigenic carbonates, and gas hydrates that were sampled by gravity coring. The fluids that flow through or erupt with the mud are enriched in chloride (up to 650 mmol L**-1 at 150-cm sediment depth) suggesting a deep source, which is similar to the fluids of the close-by Dvurechenskii mud volcano. Direct observation with the remotely operated vehicle Quest revealed gas bubbles emanating at two distinct sites at the crest of the mud volcano, which confirms earlier observations of bubble-induced hydroacoustic anomalies in echosounder records. The sediments at the main bubble emission site show a thermal anomaly with temperatures at 60 cm sediment depth that were 0.9 °C warmer than the bottom water. Chemical and isotopic analyses of the emanated gas revealed that it consisted primarily of methane (99.8%) and was of microbial origin (dD-CH4 = -170.8 per mil (SMOW), d13C-CH4 = -61.0 per mil (V-PDB), d13C-C2H6 = -44.0 per mil (V-PDB)). The gas flux was estimated using the video observations of the ROV. Assuming that the flux is constant with time, about 0.9 ± 0.5 x 10**6 mol of methane is released every year. This value is of the same order-of-magnitude as reported fluxes of dissolved methane released with pore water at other mud volcanoes. This suggests that bubble emanation is a significant pathway transporting methane from the sediments into the water column.
Resumo:
The Arctic Ocean and Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) are the fastest warming regions on the planet and are undergoing rapid climate and ecosystem changes. Until we can fully resolve the coupling between biological and physical processes we cannot predict how warming will influence carbon cycling and ecosystem function and structure in these sensitive and climactically important regions. My dissertation centers on the use of high-resolution measurements of surface dissolved gases, primarily O2 and Ar, as tracers or physical and biological functioning that we measure underway using an optode and Equilibrator Inlet Mass Spectrometry (EIMS). Total O2 measurements are common throughout the historical and autonomous record but are influenced by biological (net metabolic balance) and physical (temperature, salinity, pressure changes, ice melt/freeze, mixing, bubbles and diffusive gas exchange) processes. We use Ar, an inert gas with similar solubility properties to O2, to devolve distinct records of biological (O2/Ar) and physical (Ar) oxygen. These high-resolution measurements that expose intersystem coupling and submesoscale variability were central to studies in the Arctic Ocean, WAP and open Southern Ocean that make up this dissertation.
Key findings of this work include the documentation of under ice and ice-edge blooms and basin scale net sea ice freeze/melt processes in the Arctic Ocean. In the WAP O2 and pCO2 are both biologically driven and net community production (NCP) variability is controlled by Fe and light availability tied to glacial and sea ice meltwater input. Further, we present a feasibility study that shows the ability to use modeled Ar to derive NCP from total O2 records. This approach has the potential to unlock critical carbon flux estimates from historical and autonomous O2 measurements in the global oceans.
Resumo:
Les langages de programmation typés dynamiquement tels que JavaScript et Python repoussent la vérification de typage jusqu’au moment de l’exécution. Afin d’optimiser la performance de ces langages, les implémentations de machines virtuelles pour langages dynamiques doivent tenter d’éliminer les tests de typage dynamiques redondants. Cela se fait habituellement en utilisant une analyse d’inférence de types. Cependant, les analyses de ce genre sont souvent coûteuses et impliquent des compromis entre le temps de compilation et la précision des résultats obtenus. Ceci a conduit à la conception d’architectures de VM de plus en plus complexes. Nous proposons le versionnement paresseux de blocs de base, une technique de compilation à la volée simple qui élimine efficacement les tests de typage dynamiques redondants sur les chemins d’exécution critiques. Cette nouvelle approche génère paresseusement des versions spécialisées des blocs de base tout en propageant de l’information de typage contextualisée. Notre technique ne nécessite pas l’utilisation d’analyses de programme coûteuses, n’est pas contrainte par les limitations de précision des analyses d’inférence de types traditionnelles et évite la complexité des techniques d’optimisation spéculatives. Trois extensions sont apportées au versionnement de blocs de base afin de lui donner des capacités d’optimisation interprocédurale. Une première extension lui donne la possibilité de joindre des informations de typage aux propriétés des objets et aux variables globales. Puis, la spécialisation de points d’entrée lui permet de passer de l’information de typage des fonctions appellantes aux fonctions appellées. Finalement, la spécialisation des continuations d’appels permet de transmettre le type des valeurs de retour des fonctions appellées aux appellants sans coût dynamique. Nous démontrons empiriquement que ces extensions permettent au versionnement de blocs de base d’éliminer plus de tests de typage dynamiques que toute analyse d’inférence de typage statique.
Resumo:
The air trapped in freshly formed ice gives information concerning the ice formation processes as weH as concerning severa,l environmental parameters at the time of ice formation. Air arnount, air composition, and the size and form of bubbles may change with time. Possible processes responsible for such changes are discussed. In very cold ice air content and air composition remain almost unchanged. Samples of ancient atmospheric air are therefore very weH preserved in cold ice. In temperate ice changes of the air amount and air composition depend on the intergranular water fiow through the glacier. This waterfiow can be estimated by measuring air amount and air composition in ice sampIes.
Resumo:
Natural ice is formed by freezing of water or by sintering of dry or wet snow. Each of these processes causes atmospheric air to be enclosed in ice as bubbles. The air amount and composition as well as the bubble sizes and density depend not only on the kind of process but also on several environmental conditions. The ice in the deepest layers of the Greenland and thc Antarctic ice sheet was formed more than 100 000 years ago. In the bubbles of this ice, samples of atmospheric air from that time are preserved. The enclosure of air is discussed for each of the three processes. Of special interest are the parameters which control the amount and composition of the enclosed air. If the ice is formed by sintering of very cold dry snow, the air composition in the bubbles corresponds with good accuracy to the composition of atmospheric air.
Stable carbon isotope ratios of carbon dioxide from EDC and Berkner Island ice cores for 40-50 ka BP
Resumo:
The stable carbon isotopic signature of carbon dioxide (d13CO2) measured in the air occlusions of polar ice provides important constraints on the carbon cycle in past climates. In order to exploit this information for previous glacial periods, one must use deep, clathrated ice, where the occluded air is preserved not in bubbles but in the form of air hydrates. Therefore, it must be established whether the original atmospheric d13CO2 signature can be reconstructed from clathrated ice. We present a comparative study using coeval bubbly ice from Berkner Island and ice from the bubble-clathrate transformation zone (BCTZ) of EPICA Dome C (EDC). In the EDC samples the gas is partitioned into clathrates and remaining bubbles as shown by erroneously low and scattered CO2 concentration values, presenting a worst-case test for d13CO2 reconstructions. Even so, the reconstructed atmospheric d13CO2 values show only slightly larger scatter. The difference to data from coeval bubbly ice is statistically significant. However, the 0.16 per mil magnitude of the offset is small for practical purposes, especially in light of uncertainty from non-uniform corrections for diffusion related fractionation that could contribute to the discrepancy. Our results are promising for palaeo-atmospheric studies of d13CO2 using a ball mill dry extraction technique below the BCTZ of ice cores, where gas is not subject to fractionation into microfractures and between clathrate and bubble reservoirs.
Resumo:
High acoustic seafloor-backscatter signals characterize hundreds of patches of methane-derived authigenic carbonates and chemosynthetic communities associated with hydrocarbon seepage on the Nile Deep Sea Fan (NDSF) in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. During a high-resolution ship-based multibeam survey covering a ~ 225 km**2 large seafloor area in the Central Province of the NDSF we identified 163 high-backscatter patches at water depths between 1500 and 1800 m, and investigated the source, composition, turnover, flux and fate of emitted hydrocarbons. Systematic Parasound single beam echosounder surveys of the water column showed hydroacoustic anomalies (flares), indicative of gas bubble streams, above 8% of the high-backscatter patches. In echosounder records flares disappeared in the water column close to the upper limit of the gas hydrate stability zone located at about 1350 m water depth due to decomposition of gas hydrate skins and subsequent gas dissolution. Visual inspection of three high-backscatter patches demonstrated that sediment cementation has led to the formation of continuous flat pavements of authigenic carbonates typically 100 to 300 m in diameter. Volume estimates, considering results from high-resolution autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV)-based multibeam mapping, were used to calculate the amount of carbonate-bound carbon stored in these slabs. Additionally, the flux of methane bubbles emitted at one high-backscatter patch was estimated (0.23 to 2.3 × 10**6 mol a**-1) by combined AUV flare mapping with visual observations by remotely operated vehicle (ROV). Another high-backscatter patch characterized by single carbonate pieces, which were widely distributed and interspaced with sediments inhabited by thiotrophic, chemosynthetic organisms, was investigated using in situ measurements with a benthic chamber and ex situ sediment core incubation and allowed for estimates of the methane consumption (0.1 to 1 × 10**6 mol a**-1) and dissolved methane flux (2 to 48 × 10**6 mol a**-1). Our comparison of dissolved and gaseous methane fluxes as well as methane-derived carbonate reservoirs demonstrates the need for quantitative assessment of these different methane escape routes and their interaction with the geo-, bio-, and hydrosphere at cold seeps.
Resumo:
We consider the simplest relevant problem in the foaming of molten plastics, the growth of a single bubble in a sea of highly viscous Newtonian fluid, and without interference from other bubbles. This simplest problem has defied accurate solution from first principles. Despite plenty of research on foaming, classical approaches from first principles have neglected the temperature rise in the surrounding fluid, and we find that this oversimplification greatly accelerates bubble growth prediction. We use a transport phenomena approach to analyze the growth of a solitary bubble, expanding under its own pressure. We consider a bubble of ideal gas growing without the accelerating contribution from mass transfer into the bubble. We explore the roles of viscous forces, fluid inertia, and viscous dissipation. We find that bubble growth depends upon the nucleus radius and nucleus pressure. We begin with a detailed examination of the classical approaches (thermodynamics without viscous heating). Our failure to fit experimental data with these classical approaches, sets up the second part of our paper, a novel exploration of the essential decelerating role of viscous heating. We explore both isothermal and adiabatic bubble expansion, and also the decelerating role of surface tension. The adiabatic analysis accounts for the slight deceleration due to the cooling of the expanding gas, which depends on gas polyatomicity. We also explore the pressure profile, and the components of the extra stress tensor, in the fluid surrounding the growing bubble. These stresses can eventually be frozen into foamed plastics. We find that our new theory compares well with measured bubble behavior.
Resumo:
This thesis explores whether a specific group of large EU law firms exhibited multiple common behaviours regarding their EU geographies between 1998 and 2009. These potentially common behaviours included their preferences for trading in certain EU locations, their usage of law firm alliances, and the specific reasons why they opened or closed EU branch offices. If my hypothesis is confirmed, this may indicate that certain aspects of large law firm geography are predictable – a finding potentially of interest to various stakeholders globally, including legal regulators, academics and law firms. In testing my hypothesis, I have drawn on research conducted by the Globalization and World Cities (GaWC) Research Network to assist me. Between 1999 and 2010, the GaWC published seven research papers exploring the geographies of large US and UK law firms. Several of the GaWC’s observations arising from these studies were evidence-based; others were speculative – including a novel approach for explaining legal practice branch office change, not adopted in research conducted previously or subsequently. By distilling the GaWC’s key observations these papers into a series of “sub-hypotheses”, I been able to test whether the geographical behaviours of my novel cohort of large EU law firms reflect those suggested by the GaWC. The more the GaWC’s suggested behaviours are observed among my cohort, the more my hypothesis will be supported. In conducting this exercise, I will additionally evaluate the extent to which the GaWC’s research has aided our understanding of large EU law firm geography. Ultimately, my findings broadly support most of the GaWC’s observations, notwithstanding our cohort differences and the speculative nature of several of the GaWC’s propositions. My investigation has also allowed me to refine several of the GaWC’s observations regarding commonly-observable large law firm geographical behaviours, while also addressing a key omission from the group’s research output.