Simulating dynamic crop growth with an adapted land surface model – JULES-SUCROS: model development and validation

The increasing demand for ecosystem services, in conjunction with climate change, is expected to signif- icantly alter terrestrial ecosystems. In order to evaluate the sustainability of land and water resources, there is a need for a better understanding of the relationships between crop production, land surface characteristics and the energy and water cycles. These relationships are analysed using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). JULES includes the full hydrological cycle and vegetation effects on the energy, water, and carbon fluxes. However, this model currently only simulates land surface processes in natural ecosystems. An adapted version of JULES for agricultural ecosystems, called JULES-SUCROS has therefore been developed. In addition to overall model improvements, JULES-SUCROS includes a dynamic crop growth structure that fully fits within and builds upon the biogeochemical modelling framework for natural vegetation. Specific agro-ecosystem features such as the development of yield-bearing organs and the phenological cycle from sowing till harvest have been included in the model. This paper describes the structure of JULES-SUCROS and evaluates the fluxes simulated with this model against FLUXNET measurements at 6 European sites. We show that JULES-SUCROS significantly improves the correlation between simulated and observed fluxes over cropland and captures well the spatial and temporal vari- ability of the growth conditions in Europe. Simulations with JULES-SUCROS highlight the importance of vegetation structure and phenology, and the impact they have on land–atmosphere interactions.

Development-led archaeology in north-west Europe

Many countries in northern Europe have seen a huge expansion in development-led archaeology over the past few decades. Legislation, frameworks for heritage management and codes of practice have developed along similar but different lines. The Valetta Convention has had considerable impact on spatial planning and new legislation on archaeological heritage management within EC countries as well as on the funding, nature and distribution of archaeological fieldwork. For the first time these 12 papers bring together data on developer-led archaeology in Britain, Ireland, France, the Low Countries, Germany and Denmark in order to review and evaluate key common issues relating to organisation, practice, legal frameworks and quality management.

The DigiBog model of peatland development 1: rationale, conceptual model, and hydrological basis

Using a literature review, we argue that new models of peatland development are needed. Many existing models do not account for potentially important ecohydrological feedbacks, and/or ignore spatial structure and heterogeneity. Existing models, including those that simulate a near total loss of the northern peatland carbon store under a warming climate, may produce misleading results because they rely upon oversimplified representations of ecological and hydrological processes. In this, the first of a pair of papers, we present the conceptual framework for a model of peatland development, DigiBog, which considers peatlands as complex adaptive systems. DigiBog accounts for the interactions between the processes which govern litter production and peat decay, peat soil hydraulic properties, and peatland water-table behaviour, in a novel and genuinely ecohydrological manner. DigiBog consists of a number of interacting submodels, each representing a different aspect of peatland ecohydrology. Here we present in detail the mathematical and computational basis, as well as the implementation and testing, of the hydrological submodel. Remaining submodels are described and analysed in the accompanying paper. Tests of the hydrological submodel against analytical solutions for simple aquifers were highly successful: the greatest deviation between DigiBog and the analytical solutions was 2·83%. We also applied the hydrological submodel to irregularly shaped aquifers with heterogeneous hydraulic properties—situations for which no analytical solutions exist—and found the model's outputs to be plausible.

Engaging in European spatial planning: a central and Eastern European perspective on the territorial cohesion debate

The following paper sets out to determine the differential extent of the engagement of Central and Eastern European (CEE) member states with the European spatial planning (ESP) debate over territorial cohesion. It focuses on the written statements submitted in response to the European Commission “Green Paper on Territorial Cohesion” consultation in 2009. The geographical distribution of the respondents is analysed, before CEE member states’ responses are examined in detail, to explore the diverse interpretations of the concept of “territorial cohesion” among CEE actors. While the data collection for this paper has been restricted empirically to the consultation process, it reflects its findings in consideration of member states’ engagement with the debate as it manifested before and after the Green Paper. The debate over the exact conceptual and operational “framing” of territorial cohesion, launched by the European Commission's Green Paper, constitutes one of the many arenas through which ESP currently evolves, together with the transnational initiatives developed in the framework of the European Territorial Cooperation objective, the European Observation Network for Territorial Development and Cohesion (ESPON) and the process that recently led to the publication of the Territorial Agenda of the European Union 2020. The paper concludes that the overall level of engagement of CEE actors in ESP is proportionally lower in comparison with that of their northwestern European counterparts. The increasing involvement of some CEE member states within the ESPON 2013 Programme, as well as the activities undertaken by the Hungarian and Polish EU Presidencies in 2011, suggests that this level of CEE engagement is growing albeit differentially.

Building energy efficiency for sustainable development in China: challenges and opportunities

Rapid urbanisation in China has resulted in great demands for energy, resources and pressure on the environment. The progress in China's development is considered in the context of energy efficiency in the built environment, including policy, technology and implementation. The key research challenges and opportunities are identified for delivering a low carbon built environment. The barriers include the existing traditional sequential design process, the lack of integrated approaches, and insufficient socio-technical knowledge. A proposed conceptual systemic model of an integrated approach identifies research opportunities. The organisation of research activities should be initiated, operated, and managed in a collaborative way among policy makers, professionals, researchers and stakeholders. More emphasis is needed on integrating social, economic and environmental impacts in the short, medium and long terms. An ideal opportunity exists for China to develop its own expertise, not merely in a technical sense but in terms of vision and intellectual leadership in order to flourish in global collaborations.

Regional implications of macro-economic, sectoral and company changes in the development of technopoles in Britain and France

This paper reports the proceedings of a conference held at Reading University in 1993 which addressed the issues of new technological developments at the regional and sub-regional levels in Britain and France. These new technological clusters - the `Technopoles' - are investigated in a series of papers in both English and French which examines their spatial, sectoral and economic aspects to determine what lessons can be learned from their development and what their future economic significance is likely to be. Two recurring themes are of particular significance in the papers - the link between R& D and regional development, and the different forms which innovation assumes within the various technopoles under scrutiny.

A review of the spatial economics of non-timber forest product extraction: implications for policy

Patterns of forest cover and forest degradation determine the size and types of ecosystem services forests provide. Particularly in low-income countries, nontimber forest product (NTFP) extraction by rural people, which provides important resources and income to the rural poor, contributes to the level and pattern of forest degradation. Although recent policy, particularly in Africa, emphasizes forest degradation, relatively little research describes the spatial aspects of NTFP collection that lead to spatial degradation patterns. This paper reviews both the spatial empirical work on NTFP extraction and related forest degradation patterns, and spatial models of behavior of rural people who extract NTFPs from forest. Despite the impact of rural people's behavior on resulting quantities and patterns of forest resources, spatial–temporal models/patterns rarely inform park siting and sizing decisions, econometric assessments of park effectiveness, development projects to support conservation, or REDD protocols. Using the literature review as a lens, we discuss the models' implications for these policies with particular emphasis on effective conservation spending and leakage.

A socio-technical network approach to the adoption of low and zero carbon technologies in new housing

Housing in the UK accounts for 30.5% of all energy consumed and is responsible for 25% of all carbon emissions. The UK Government’s Code for Sustainable Homes requires all new homes to be zero carbon by 2016. The development and widespread diffusion of low and zero carbon (LZC) technologies is recognised as being a key solution for housing developers to deliver against this zero-carbon agenda. The innovation challenge to design and incorporate these technologies into housing developers’ standard design and production templates will usher in significant technical and commercial risks. In this paper we report early results from an ongoing Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council project looking at the innovation logic and trajectory of LZC technologies in new housing. The principal theoretical lens for the research is the socio-technical network approach which considers actors’ interests and interpretative flexibilities of technologies and how they negotiate and reproduce ‘acting spaces’ to shape, in this case, the selection and adoption of LZC technologies. The initial findings are revealing the form and operation of the technology networks around new housing developments as being very complex, involving a range of actors and viewpoints that vary for each housing development.

Multi-year droughts in Europe: analysis of development and causes

Whilst hydrological systems can show resilience to short-term streamflow deficiencies during within-year droughts, prolonged deficits during multi-year droughts are a significant threat to water resources security in Europe. This study uses a threshold-based objective classification of regional hydrological drought to qualitatively examine the characteristics, spatio-temporal evolution and synoptic climatic drivers of multi-year drought events in 1962–64, 1975–76 and 1995–97, on a European scale but with particular focus on the UK. Whilst all three events are multi-year, pan-European phenomena, their development and causes can be contrasted. The critical factor in explaining the unprecedented severity of the 1975–76 event is the consecutive occurrence of winter and summer drought. In contrast, 1962–64 was a succession of dry winters, mitigated by quiescent summers, whilst 1995–97 lacked spatial coherence and was interrupted by wet interludes. Synoptic climatic conditions vary within and between multi-year droughts, suggesting that regional factors modulate the climate signal in streamflow drought occurrence. Despite being underpinned by qualitatively similar climatic conditions and commonalities in evolution and characteristics, each of the three droughts has a unique spatio-temporal signature. An improved understanding of the spatio-temporal evolution and characteristics of multi-year droughts has much to contribute to monitoring and forecasting capability, and to improved mitigation strategies.

Examining the large-scale spatial coherence of European drought using regional indicators of precipitation and streamflow deficit

Droughts tend to evolve slowly and affect large areas simultaneously, which suggests that improved understanding of spatial coherence of drought would enable better mitigation of drought impacts through enhanced monitoring and forecasting strategies. This study employs an up-to-date dataset of over 500 river flow time series from 11 European countries, along with a gridded precipitation dataset, to examine the spatial coherence of drought in Europe using regional indicators of precipitation and streamflow deficit. The drought indicators were generated for 24 homogeneous regions and, for selected regions, historical drought characteristics were corroborated with previous work. The spatial coherence of drought characteristics was then examined at a European scale. Historical droughts generally have distinctive signatures in their spatio-temporal development, so there was limited scope for using the evolution of historical events to inform forecasting. Rather, relationships were explored in time series of drought indicators between regions. Correlations were generally low, but multivariate analyses revealed broad continental-scale patterns, which appear to be related to large-scale atmospheric circulation indices (in particular, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic West Russia pattern). A novel methodology for forecasting was developed (and demonstrated with reference to the United Kingdom), which predicts drought from drought i.e. uses spatial coherence of drought to facilitate early warning of drought in a target region, from drought which is developing elsewhere in Europe.Whilst the skill of the methodology is relatively modest at present, this approach presents a potential new avenue for forecasting, which offers significant advantages in that it allows prediction for all seasons, and also shows some potential for forecasting the termination of drought conditions.

Quantifying the relationship between temperature regulation in the ear and floret development stage in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under heat and drought stress

Thermal imaging is a valuable tool for the elucidation of gas exchange dynamics between a plant and its environment. The presence of stomata in wheat glumes and awns offers an opportunity to assess photosynthetic activity of ears up to and during flowering. The knowledge of spatial and temporal thermodynamics of the wheat ear may provide insight into interactions between floret developmental stage (FDS), temperature depression (TD) and ambient environment, with potential to be used as a high-throughput screening tool for breeders. A controlled environment study was conducted using six spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) genotypes of the elite recombinant inbred line Seri/Babax. Average ear temperature (AET) was recorded using a hand held infrared camera and gas exchange was measured by enclosing ears in a custom built cuvette. FDS was monitored and recorded daily throughout the study. Plants were grown in pots and exposed to a combination of two temperature and two water regimes. In the examined wheat lines, TD varied from 0.1°C to 0.6°C according to the level of stress imposed. The results indicated that TD does not occur at FDS F3, the peak of active flowering, but during the preceding stages prior to pollen release and stigma maturity (F1-F2). These findings suggest that ear temperature during the early stages of anthesis, prior to pollen release and full extension of the stigma, are likely to be the most relevant for identifying heat stress tolerant genotypes.

The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios

This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the relative effects of rate of climate change (four Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), assumed future population (five Shared Socio-economic Pathways - SSPs), and pattern of climate change (19 CMIP5 climate models) on regional and global exposure to water resources stress and river flooding. Uncertainty in projected future impacts of climate change on exposure to water stress and river flooding is dominated by uncertainty in the projected spatial and seasonal pattern of change in climate. There is little clear difference in impact between RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2050, and between RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2080. Impacts under RCP8.5 are greater than under the other RCPs in 2050 and 2080. For a given RCP, there is a difference in the absolute numbers of people exposed to increased water resources stress or increased river flood frequency between the five SSPs. With the ‘middle-of-the-road’ SSP2, climate change by 2050 would increase exposure to water resources stress for between approximately 920 and 3400 million people under the highest RCP, and increase exposure to river flood risk for between 100 and 580 million people. Under RCP2.6, exposure to increased water scarcity would be reduced in 2050 by 22-24%, compared to impacts under the RCP8.5, and exposure to increased flood frequency would be reduced by around 16%. The implications of climate change for actual future losses and adaptation depend not only on the numbers of people exposed to changes in risk, but also on the qualitative characteristics of future worlds as described in the different SSPs. The difference in ‘actual’ impact between SSPs will therefore be greater than the differences in numbers of people exposed to impact.

The influence of vegetation and building morphology on shadow patterns and mean radiant temperatures in urban areas: model development and evaluation

The solar and longwave environmental irradiance geometry (SOLWEIG) model simulates spatial variations of 3-D radiation fluxes and mean radiant temperature (T mrt) as well as shadow patterns in complex urban settings. In this paper, a new vegetation scheme is included in SOLWEIG and evaluated. The new shadow casting algorithm for complex vegetation structures makes it possible to obtain continuous images of shadow patterns and sky view factors taking both buildings and vegetation into account. For the calculation of 3-D radiation fluxes and T mrt, SOLWEIG only requires a limited number of inputs, such as global shortwave radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, geographical information (latitude, longitude and elevation) and urban geometry represented by high-resolution ground and building digital elevation models (DEM). Trees and bushes are represented by separate DEMs. The model is evaluated using 5 days of integral radiation measurements at two sites within a square surrounded by low-rise buildings and vegetation in Göteborg, Sweden (57°N). There is good agreement between modelled and observed values of T mrt, with an overall correspondence of R 2 = 0.91 (p < 0.01, RMSE = 3.1 K). A small overestimation of T mrt is found at locations shadowed by vegetation. Given this good performance a number of suggestions for future development are identified for applications which include for human comfort, building design, planning and evaluation of instrument exposure.

Star/poverty space: the making of the ‘development celebrity’

What is it that gives celebrities the voice and authority to do and say the things they do in the realm of development politics? Asked another way, how is celebrity practised and, simultaneously, how does this praxis make celebrity, personas, politics and, indeed, celebrities themselves? In this article, we explore this ‘celebrity praxis’ through the lens of the creation of the contemporary ‘development celebrity’ in those stars working for development writ large in the so-called Third World. Drawing on work in science studies, material cultures and the growing geo-socio-anthropologies of things, the key to understanding the material practices embedded in and creating development celebrity networks is the multiple and complex circulations of the everyday and bespectacled artefacts of celebrity. Conceptualised as the ‘celebrity–consumption–compassion complex’, the performances of development celebrities are as much about everyday events, materials, technologies, emotions and consumer acts as they are about the mediated and liquidised constructions of the stars who now ‘market’ development.Moreover, this complex is constructed by and constructs what we are calling ‘star/poverty space’ that works to facilitate the ‘expertise’ and ‘authenticity’ and, thus, elevated voice and authority, of development celebrities through poverty tours, photoshoots, textual and visual diaries, websites and tweets. In short, the creation of star/poverty space is performed through a kind of ‘materiality of authenticity’ that is at the centre of the networks of development celebrity. The article concludes with several brief observations about the politics, possibilities and problematics of development celebrities and the star/poverty spaces that they create.