Fire in the Earth System

Fire is an important component of the Earth System that is tightly coupled with climate, vegetation, biogeochemical cycles, and human activities. Observations of how fire regimes change on seasonal to millennial timescales are providing an improved understanding of the hierarchy of controls on fire regimes. Climate is the principal control on fire regimes, although human activities have had an increasing influence on the distribution and incidence of fire in recent centuries. Understanding of the controls and variability of fire also underpins the development of models, both conceptual and numerical, that allow us to predict how future climate and land-use changes might influence fire regimes. Although fires in fire-adapted ecosystems can be important for biodiversity and ecosystem function, positive effects are being increasingly outweighed by losses of ecosystem services. As humans encroach further into the natural habitat of fire, social and economic costs are also escalating. The prospect of near-term rapid and large climate changes, and the escalating costs of large wildfires, necessitates a radical re-thinking and the development of approaches to fire management that promote the more harmonious co-existence of fire and people.

The mirror neuron system as revealed through neonatal imitation: presence from birth, predictive power, and evidence of plasticity

There is strong evidence that neonates imitate previously unseen behaviors. These behaviors are predominantly used in social interactions, demonstrating neonates’ ability and motivation to engage with others. Research on neonatal imitation can provide a wealth of information about the early mirror neuron system (MNS): namely, its functional characteristics, its plasticity from birth, and its relation to skills later in development. Though numerous studies document the existence of neonatal imitation in the laboratory, little is known about its natural occurrence during parent-infant interactions and its plasticity as a consequence of experience. We review these critical aspects of imitation, which we argue are necessary for understanding the early action-perception system. We address common criticisms and misunderstandings about neonatal imitation and discuss methodological differences among studies. Recent work reveals that individual differences in neonatal imitation positively correlate with later social, cognitive, and motor development. We propose that such variation in neonatal imitation could reflect important individual differences of the MNS. Although postnatal experience is not necessary for imitation, we present evidence that neonatal imitation is influenced by experience in the first week of life.

Developing green supply chain management taxonomy-based decision support system

The aim of this paper is to develop a comprehensive taxonomy of green supply chain management (GSCM) practices and develop a structural equation modelling-driven decision support system following GSCM taxonomy for managers to provide better understanding of the complex relationship between the external and internal factors and GSCM operational practices. Typology and/or taxonomy play a key role in the development of social science theories. The current taxonomies focus on a single or limited component of the supply chain. Furthermore, they have not been tested using different sample compositions and contexts, yet replication is a prerequisite for developing robust concepts and theories. In this paper, we empirically replicate one such taxonomy extending the original study by (a) developing broad (containing the key components of supply chain) taxonomy; (b) broadening the sample by including a wider range of sectors and organisational size; and (c) broadening the geographic scope of the previous studies. Moreover, we include both objective measures and subjective attitudinal measurements. We use a robust two-stage cluster analysis to develop our GSCM taxonomy. The main finding validates the taxonomy previously proposed and identifies size, attitude and level of environmental risk and impact as key mediators between internal drivers, external drivers and GSCM operational practices.

State capitalism and social responsibility in China's banking industry

China’s financial system has experienced a series of major reforms in recent years. Efforts have been made towards introducing the shareholding system in state-owned commercial banks, restructuring of securities firms, re-organising equity of joint venture insurance companies, further improving the corporate governance structure, managing financial risks and ultimately establishing a system to protect investors (Xinhua, 2010). Financial product innovation, with the further opening up of financial markets and the development of the insurance and bond market, has increased liquidity as well as reduced financial risks. The U.S. subprime crisis indicated the benefit of financial innovations for the economy, but without proper control, they may lead to unexpected consequences. Kirkpatrick (2009) argues that failures and weaknesses in corporate governance arrangements and insufficient accounting standards and regulatory requirements attributed to the financial crisis. Similar to the financial crises of the last decade, the global financial crisis which sparked in 2008, surfaced a variety of significant corporate governance failures: the dysfunction of market mechanisms, the lack of transparency and accountability, misaligned compensation arrangements and the late response of government, all which encouraged management short-termism, poor risk management, as well as some fraudulent schemes. The unique characteristics of the Chinese banking system are an interesting point for studying post-crisis corporate governance reform. Considering that China modelled its governance system on the Anglo-American system, this paper examines the impact of the financial crisis on corporate governance reform in developed economies, and particularly, China’s reform of its financial sector. The paper further analyses the Chinese government’s role in bank supervision and risk management. In this regard, the paper contributes to the corporate governance literature within the Chinese context by providing insights into the contributing factors to the corporate governance failure that led to the global financial crisis. It also provides policy recommendations for China’s policy makers to seriously consider. The results suggest a need for the re-examination of corporate governance adequacy and the institutionalisation of business ethics. The paper’s next section provides a review of China’s financial system with reference to the financial crisis, followed by a critical evaluation of a capitalistic system and a review of Anglo-American and Continental European models. It then analyses the need for a new corporate governance model in China by considering the bank failures in developed economies and the potential risks and inefficiencies in a current State controlled system. The paper closes by reflecting the need for Chinese policy makers to continually develop, adapt and rewrite corporate governance practices capable of meeting the new challenge, and to pay attention to business ethics, an issue which goes beyond regulation.

Should system dynamics be described as a 'hard' or 'deterministic' systems approach?

This paper explores the criticism that system dynamics is a ‘hard’ or ‘deterministic’ systems approach. This criticism is seen to have four interpretations and each is addressed from the perspectives of social theory and systems science. Firstly, system dynamics is shown to offer not prophecies but Popperian predictions. Secondly, it is shown to involve the view that system structure only partially, not fully, determines human behaviour. Thirdly, the field's assumptions are shown not to constitute a grand content theory—though its structural theory and its attachment to the notion of causality in social systems are acknowledged. Finally, system dynamics is shown to be significantly different from systems engineering. The paper concludes that such confusions have arisen partially because of limited communication at the theoretical level from within the system dynamics community but also because of imperfect command of the available literature on the part of external commentators. Improved communication on theoretical issues is encouraged, though it is observed that system dynamics will continue to justify its assumptions primarily from the point of view of practical problem solving. The answer to the question in the paper's title is therefore: on balance, no.

Beneath a learning management system: understanding the human information interaction in information systems

Studies on learning management systems have largely been technical in nature with an emphasis on the evaluation of the human computer interaction (HCI) processes in using the LMS. This paper reports a study that evaluates the information interaction processes on an eLearning course used in teaching an applied Statistics course. The eLearning course is used as a synonym for information systems. The study explores issues of missing context in stored information in information systems. Using the semiotic framework as a guide, the researchers evaluated an existing eLearning course with the view to proposing a model for designing improved eLearning courses for future eLearning programmes. In this exploratory study, a survey questionnaire is used to collect data from 160 participants on an eLearning course in Statistics in Applied Climatology. The views of the participants are analysed with a focus on only the human information interaction issues. Using the semiotic framework as a guide, syntactic, semantic, pragmatic and social context gaps or problems were identified. The information interactions problems identified include ambiguous instructions, inadequate information, lack of sound, interface design problems among others. These problems affected the quality of new knowledge created by the participants. The researchers thus highlighted the challenges of missing information context when data is stored in an information system. The study concludes by proposing a human information interaction model for improving the information interaction quality issues in the design of eLearning course on learning management platforms and those other information systems.

Breaching the social contract: crises of democratic representation and patterns of extreme right party support

Why has the extreme right Greek Golden Dawn, a party with clear links to fascism experienced a rise defying all theories that claim that such a party is unlikely to win in post-WWII Europe? And, if we accept that economic crisis is an explanation for this, why has such a phenomenon not occurred in other countries that have similar conducive conditions, such as Portugal and Spain? This article addresses this puzzle by (a) carrying out a controlled comparison of Greece, Portugal and Spain and (b) showing that the rise of the extreme right is not a question of intensity of economic crisis. Rather it is the nature of the crisis, i.e. economic versus overall crisis of democratic representation that facilitates the rise of the extreme right. We argue that extreme right parties are more likely to experience an increase in their support when economic crisis culminates into an overall crisis of democratic representation. Economic crisis is likely to become a political crisis when severe issues of governability impact upon the ability of the state to fulfil its social contract obligations. This breach of the social contract is accompanied by declining levels of trust in state institutions, resulting in party system collapse.

Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a proof-of-concept using temperature-mortality relationships

Objectives In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office’s (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. Method The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an “impact vs likelihood matrix” for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. Conclusions The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use.

Sexual System, Sex Ratio, and Group Living in the Shrimp Thor amboinensis (De Man): Relevance to Resource-Monopolization and Sex-Allocation Theories

The sexual system of the symbiotic shrimp Thor amboinensis is described, along with observations on sex ratio and host-use pattern of different populations. We used a comprehensive approach to elucidate the previously unknown sexual system of this shrimp. Dissections, scanning electron microscopy, size-frequency distribution analysis, and laboratory observations demonstrated that T amboinensis is a protandric hermaphrodite: shrimp first mature as males and change into females later in life. Thor amboinensis inhabited the large and structurally heterogeneous sea anemone Stichoclactyla helianthus in large groups (up to 11 individuals) more frequently than expected by chance alone. Groups exhibited no particularly complex social structure and showed male-biased sex ratios more frequently than expected by chance alone. The adult sex ratio was male-biased in the four separate populations studied, one of them being thousands of kilometers apart from the others. This study supports predictions central to theories of resource monopolization and sex allocation. Dissections demonstrated that unusually large males were parasitized by an undescribed species of isopod (family Entoniscidae). Infestation rates were similarly low in both sexes (approximate to 11%-12%). The available information suggests that T. amboinensis uses pure search promiscuity as a mating system. This hypothesis needs to be formally tested with mating behavior observations and field measurements on the movement pattern of both sexes of the species. Further detailed studies on the lifestyle and sexual system of all the species within this genus and the development of a molecular phylogeny are necessary to elucidate the evolutionary history of gender expression in the genus Thor.

STABILITY ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATIONS OF A TWO-DIMENSIONAL DYNAMICAL SYSTEM ARISING FROM A STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR AN ASSET MARKET

We analyze the stability properties of equilibrium solutions and periodicity of orbits in a two-dimensional dynamical system whose orbits mimic the evolution of the price of an asset and the excess demand for that asset. The construction of the system is grounded upon a heterogeneous interacting agent model for a single risky asset market. An advantage of this construction procedure is that the resulting dynamical system becomes a macroscopic market model which mirrors the market quantities and qualities that would typically be taken into account solely at the microscopic level of modeling. The system`s parameters correspond to: (a) the proportion of speculators in a market; (b) the traders` speculative trend; (c) the degree of heterogeneity of idiosyncratic evaluations of the market agents with respect to the asset`s fundamental value; and (d) the strength of the feedback of the population excess demand on the asset price update increment. This correspondence allows us to employ our results in order to infer plausible causes for the emergence of price and demand fluctuations in a real asset market. The employment of dynamical systems for studying evolution of stochastic models of socio-economic phenomena is quite usual in the area of heterogeneous interacting agent models. However, in the vast majority of the cases present in the literature, these dynamical systems are one-dimensional. Our work is among the few in the area that construct and study analytically a two-dimensional dynamical system and apply it for explanation of socio-economic phenomena.

The concept of e-service from a social interaction perspective

Today’s e-services are complex phenomenon consisting of several different e-services linked together. The e-services are provided by IT systems and presented to customers through user interfaces. Within web design research criteria are laid out for the design of good user interfaces, but one problem is that these analyses are performed without a service focus. This lack of service focus can result in the designed user interfaces providing indistinct service concepts, especially where several e-services are intertwined with each other.In order to design IT system interfaces, we have to be clear about which e-services are provided by the IT system and how these e-services are related to each other. This paper presents a framework for the analysis of user interfaces in terms of focused e-service, service environment and two types of intertwined e-services; related e-services and interrelating e-services. The analyses are exemplified by an Internet based e-marketplace. The paper discusses how the framework can be combined with ordinary web design criteria and how it can be used for e-service development.

Travel Report from the first field trip within the SIDA supported project "Mini-grids supplied by renewable energy - improving technical and social feasibility : Including visits to Ihushi Development Center, Tweyambe Secondary School and Mavuno Project in Tanzania. Conducted in April 2011

This report describes the outcome of the first visit to Tanzania, within the project "Mini-grids supplied by renewable energy - improving technical and social feasibility". The trip included visits to three different organizations; Ihushi Development Center (IDC) near Mwanza, TIDESO near Bukoba, and Mavuno Project in Karagwe. At IDC, a brief evaluation of the current power system was done and measuring equipment for long term measurements were installed. At all three locations investigations regarding the current and future electricity demand were conducted and connections to people relevant to the study were established. The report is including as well some technical specifications as some observations regarding organization and management of the technical systems. The trip was including only short visits and therefore only brief introductions to the different organizations, based on observations done by the author. The report is hence describing the author’s understanding of the technical system and social structures after only short visits to each of the organizations, and may differ from observations done at another point in time, over a different time period, or by some other person.This report describes the outcome of the first visit to Tanzania, within the project "Mini-grids supplied by renewable energy - improving technical and social feasibility". The trip included visits to three different organizations; Ihushi Development Center (IDC) near Mwanza, TIDESO near Bukoba, and Mavuno Project in Karagwe. At IDC, a brief evaluation of the current power system was done and measuring equipment for long term measurements were installed. At all three locations investigations regarding the current and future electricity demand were conducted and connections to people relevant to the study were established. The report is including as well some technical specifications as some observations regarding organization and management of the technical systems. The trip was including only short visits and therefore only brief introductions to the different organizations, based on observations done by the author. The report is hence describing the author’s understanding of the technical system and social structures after only short visits to each of the organizations, and may differ from observations done at another point in time, over a different time period, or by some other person.

Estilo de gestão na elaboração de política de assistência social : a visão do conselho municipal de assistência social de Porto Alegre (RS)

Esta pesquisa avalia o estilo de gestão do CMAS/POA na elaboração da política de assistência social do município, na visão dos seus próprios integrantes (conselheiros). Baseiase no modelo de análise de estilo de gestão estruturado por Rensis Likert, aplicado às condições e contexto de um conselho de assistência social. Todos os 35 conselheiros municipais responderam a um questionário de levantamento de dados quantitativos, utilizando uma escala tipo Likert, com respostas no intervalo de 1 a 4, correspondendo aos estilos de gestão: autoritário-forte, autoritário-benévolo, participativoconsultivo e participativo-grupal. As questões abrangem aspectos relativos às dimensões ou temas: processos de liderança utilizados, natureza das forças motivacionais, do processo de comunicação, do processo de influência e interação, do processo decisório, do sistema de metas e diretrizes, do processo de controle e metas de desempenho e treinamento. Os resultados evidenciam que o estilo de gestão do CMAS/POA é o participativoconsultivo. A análise das variáveis causais permite sugerir diversas ações para tornar o estilo de gestão participativo grupal.

The Brazilian social security program:diagnosis and proposal for reform

The Brazilian pay-as-you-go social security program is analyzed in a historical perspective. Its contribution to income inequality, and the role played by the inflation as a balancing variable are discussed. It is shown that budgetary constraints due to the increasing informalization of the labor force can no longer be reconciled with protligate eligibility criteria. A tailor-made proposal for reform is presented as well as a plan for financing the transition from today's system to the proposed one.

Previdencia social no Brasil: por uma reforma mais duradoura

A reforma da previdência social tem sido uma preocupação de vários países: tanto no mundo desenvolvido como no em desenvolvimento. A motivação básica é o esgotamento do modelo de repartição, devido a fatores demográficos: queda de natalidade e aumento da longevidade. Analisando o fenômeno do esgotamento, o artigo propugna pela adesão, tal como no bem sucedido caso chileno, do sistema de capitalização.