Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége = Empirical models of exchange rate target zones

A sávosan rögzített devizaárfolyamok elméleti és gyakorlati vizsgálatai a nemzetközi közgazdaságtan egyik legnépszerűbb témaköre volt a kilencvenes évek elején. A gyakorlati módszerek közül az alkalmazások és hivatkozások száma tekintetében az úgynevezett eltolódással igazítás módszere emelkedett ki. A módszert alkalmazó szerzők szerint amíg a lebegő árfolyamú devizák előrejelzése céltalan feladatnak tűnik, addig sávos árfolyam esetén az árfolyam sávon belüli helyzetének előrejelzése sikeresen végezhető. E tanulmány bemutatja, hogy az Európai Monetáris Rendszer és az északeurópai államok sávos árfolyamrendszereinél e módszer alkalmazásával adódott eredmények például a lebegő árfolyamú amerikai dollárra és az egységgyökfolyamatok többségére is érvényesek. A tanulmány feltárja e látszólagos ellentmondás okait, és bemutat egy olyan, a sávos árfolyamrendszerek főbb megfigyelt jellemzőire épülő modellt, amelynek keretei között a sávon belüli árfolyam előrejelzése nem feltétlenül lehetséges, mert a leértékelés előtti időszakban a sávon belüli árfolyam alakulása kaotikus lehet. / === / Following the development of the first exchange rate target zone model at the end of the eighties dozens of papers analyzed theoretical and empirical topics of currency bands. This paper reviews different empirical methods to analyze the credibility of the band and lays special emphasis on the most widely used method, the so-called drift-adjustment method. Papers applying that method claim that while forecasting a freely floating currency is hopeless, predicting an exchange rate within the future band is successful. This paper shows that the results achieved by applications to EMS and Nordic currencies are not specific to data of target zone currencies. For example, application to US dollar and even to most unit root processes leads qualitatively to the same. This paper explores the solutions of this puzzle and shows a model of target zones in which the exchange rate within the band is not necessarily predictable since the process might follow chaotic dynamics before devaluation.

A Kraft-index – kreatív városok – fenntartható vidék (The KRAFT Index: Creative Cities – Sustainable Regions)

A KRAFT-index: Kreatív városok – fenntartható vidék egy komplex mutatórendszer, amely a fejlődési tendenciát, hálózatosodást, a fontosabb szereplők együttműködési készségét és kapacitását, kreativitási potenciálját, valamint a szereplők szinergiáiból fakadó belső energiákat és lehetőségeiket jelzi. A város- és vidékfejlesztés sikerének zálogaként előtérbe állítja és méri az ún. „puha” tényezőket, úgymint a kreativitást, innovációs képességet, új tudás létrehozását, tudástranszfert, együttműködési készséget, bizalmat, kollektív kompetenciákat. A társadalmi, gazdasági és tudományos kapcsolatok és hálózatok sűrűsége, minősége és dinamizmusa a sikeres fejlődés és fejlesztés kulcsai: ezek ma már fontosabb tényezők, mint a fizikai távolság, az adminisztratív jogi határok vagy az ún. „kemény” indikátorok. Az index értékeli egy térség lehetőségeit arra, hogy az ott élők, dolgozók, alkotók és letelepedni kívánók életminőségét, a vállalatok minőségi munkaerő iránti igényét és a fenntarthatósági szempontokat egyaránt figyelembe véve fejlessze gazdaságát és versenyképességét. Három tulajdonságcsoportot mér: 1. kreativitiási és innovációs potenciál, az új tudás létrehozásának képessége, 2. társadalmi és kapcsolati tőke, hálózati potenciál és „összekapcsoltság”, valamint 3. fenntarthatósági potenciál. _____ The KRAFT Index: Creative Cities – Sustainable Regions is a complex indicator system to measure development tendencies, ‘networkedness’, cooperation inclination and capacity, creativity potential and possibilities arising from the synergies among actors. It highlights and gauges ‘soft’ factors, such as creativity, innovation capacity, knowledge production, knowledge transfer, willingness for cooperation, trust, and collective competences and perceives effective regional cooperation among economic and social actors as the measure of successful urban and rural development. The density, quality and dynamism of social, economic and academic networks are more important factors than physical distance, administrative legal barriers or ‘hard’ indicators. The index evaluates the potential of a region to develop its economy and competitiveness by considering the quality of life of its inhabitants, workers, producers and immigrants, the quality workforce requirements of companies and sustainability. It measures three groups of qualities: 1. creativity and innovation potential, the ability of knowledge production; 2. social and connection capital, network potential and connectedness; and 3. sustainability potential.

Motivations Behind Sustainable Purchasing

Sustainability issues in purchasing are receiving greater attention. Literature is rapidly growing, with several research programs being initiated to investigate the topic. This study presents the results of a research project which aims to reveal and structure the motivating forces leading companies to make efforts in sustainability purchasing and the means used to attain achievements in some fields of sustainability. Results presented in the literature are scattered in terms of the fields of sustainability: most of the studies focus only on green or corporate social responsibility issues and there is a lack of exploratory models. Sustainability in purchasing is addressed in a comprehensive way including green, social responsibility and corporate growth issues. After presenting the results of a literature review, theoretical development was undertaken to create a framework in which it is possible to describe the means of sustainability applied and the motivating forces behind them. This framework serves as the basis for an empirical investigation among Hungarian companies. Empirical results confirm the usefulness of the theoretical framework: the number and the characteristics of sustainability activities were determined by the particular types of motivation – to avoid negative effects, to achieve compliance with expectations and to attain positive effects.

The development and testing of a multivariate model of differentiation of self among Hispanics

Individuals of Hispanic origin are the nation's largest minority (13.4%). Therefore, there is a need for models and methods that are culturally appropriate for mental health research with this burgeoning population. This is an especially salient issue when applying family systems theories to Hispanics, who are heavily influenced by family bonds in a way that appears to be different from the more individualistic non-Hispanic White culture. Bowen asserted that his family systems' concept of differentiation of self, which values both individuality and connectedness, could be universally applied. However, there is a paucity of research systematically assessing the applicability of the differentiation of self construct in ethnic minority populations. ^ This dissertation tested a multivariate model of differentiation of self with a Hispanic sample. The manner in which the construct of differentiation of self was being assessed and how accurately it represented this particular ethnic minority group's functioning was examined. Additionally, the proposed model included key contextual variables (e.g., anxiety, relationship satisfaction, attachment and acculturation related variables) which have been shown to be related to the differentiation process. ^ The results from structural equation modeling (SEM) analyses confirmed and extended previous research, and helped to illuminate the complex relationships between key factors that need to be considered in order to better understand individuals with this cultural background. Overall results indicated that the manner in which Hispanic individuals negotiate the boundaries of interconnectedness with a sense of individual expression appears to be different from their non-Hispanic White counterparts in some important ways. These findings illustrate the need for research on Hispanic individuals that provides a more culturally sensitive framework. ^

An exergy based engineering and economic analysis of sustainable building

To achieve the goal of sustainable development, the building energy system was evaluated from both the first and second law of thermodynamics point of view. The relationship between exergy destruction and sustainable development were discussed at first, followed by the description of the resource abundance model, the life cycle analysis model and the economic investment effectiveness model. By combining the forgoing models, a new sustainable index was proposed. Several green building case studies in U.S. and China were presented. The influences of building function, geographic location, climate pattern, the regional energy structure, and the technology improvement potential of renewable energy in the future were discussed. The building’s envelope, HVAC system, on-site renewable energy system life cycle analysis from energy, exergy, environmental and economic perspective were compared. It was found that climate pattern had a dramatic influence on the life cycle investment effectiveness of the building envelope. The building HVAC system energy performance was much better than its exergy performance. To further increase the exergy efficiency, renewable energy rather than fossil fuel should be used as the primary energy. A building life cycle cost and exergy consumption regression model was set up. The optimal building insulation level could be affected by either cost minimization or exergy consumption minimization approach. The exergy approach would cause better insulation than cost approach. The influence of energy price on the system selection strategy was discussed. Two photovoltaics (PV) systems—stand alone and grid tied system were compared by the life cycle assessment method. The superiority of the latter one was quite obvious. The analysis also showed that during its life span PV technology was less attractive economically because the electricity price in U.S. and China did not fully reflect the environmental burden associated with it. However if future energy price surges and PV system cost reductions were considered, the technology could be very promising for sustainable buildings in the future.

Hybrid multi-objective optimization and hybridized self-organizing response surface method

Numerical optimization is a technique where a computer is used to explore design parameter combinations to find extremes in performance factors. In multi-objective optimization several performance factors can be optimized simultaneously. The solution to multi-objective optimization problems is not a single design, but a family of optimized designs referred to as the Pareto frontier. The Pareto frontier is a trade-off curve in the objective function space composed of solutions where performance in one objective function is traded for performance in others. A Multi-Objective Hybridized Optimizer (MOHO) was created for the purpose of solving multi-objective optimization problems by utilizing a set of constituent optimization algorithms. MOHO tracks the progress of the Pareto frontier approximation development and automatically switches amongst those constituent evolutionary optimization algorithms to speed the formation of an accurate Pareto frontier approximation. Aerodynamic shape optimization is one of the oldest applications of numerical optimization. MOHO was used to perform shape optimization on a 0.5-inch ballistic penetrator traveling at Mach number 2.5. Two objectives were simultaneously optimized: minimize aerodynamic drag and maximize penetrator volume. This problem was solved twice. The first time the problem was solved by using Modified Newton Impact Theory (MNIT) to determine the pressure drag on the penetrator. In the second solution, a Parabolized Navier-Stokes (PNS) solver that includes viscosity was used to evaluate the drag on the penetrator. The studies show the difference in the optimized penetrator shapes when viscosity is absent and present in the optimization. In modern optimization problems, objective function evaluations may require many hours on a computer cluster to perform these types of analysis. One solution is to create a response surface that models the behavior of the objective function. Once enough data about the behavior of the objective function has been collected, a response surface can be used to represent the actual objective function in the optimization process. The Hybrid Self-Organizing Response Surface Method (HYBSORSM) algorithm was developed and used to make response surfaces of objective functions. HYBSORSM was evaluated using a suite of 295 non-linear functions. These functions involve from 2 to 100 variables demonstrating robustness and accuracy of HYBSORSM.

Integrated assessment of water conservation practices for sustainable management strategies

Miami-Dade County implemented a series of water conservation programs, which included rebate/exchange incentives to encourage the use of high efficiency aerators (AR), showerheads (SH), toilets (HET) and clothes washers (HEW), to respond to the environmental sustainability issue in urban areas. This study first used panel data analysis of water consumption to evaluate the performance and actual water savings of individual programs. Integrated water demand model has also been developed for incorporating property’s physical characteristics into the water consumption profiles. Life cycle assessment (with emphasis on end-use stage in water system) of water intense appliances was conducted to determine the environmental impacts brought by each practice. Approximately 6 to 10 % of water has been saved in the first and second year of implementation of high efficiency appliances, and with continuing savings in the third and fourth years. Water savings (gallons per household per day) for water efficiency appliances were observed at 28 (11.1%) for SH, 34.7 (13.3%) for HET, and 39.7 (14.5%) for HEW. Furthermore, the estimated contributions of high efficiency appliances for reducing water demand in the integrated water demand model were between 5 and 19% (highest in the AR program). Results indicated that adoption of more than one type of water efficiency appliance could significantly reduce residential water demand. For the sustainable water management strategies, the appropriate water conservation rate was projected to be 1 to 2 million gallons per day (MGD) through 2030. With 2 MGD of water savings, the estimated per capita water use (GPCD) could be reduced from approximately 140 to 122 GPCD. Additional efforts are needed to reduce the water demand to US EPA’s “Water Sense” conservation levels of 70 GPCD by 2030. Life cycle assessment results showed that environmental impacts (water and energy demands and greenhouse gas emissions) from end-use and demand phases are most significant within the water system, particularly due to water heating (73% for clothes washer and 93% for showerhead). Estimations of optimal lifespan for appliances (8 to 21 years) implied that earlier replacement with efficiency models is encouraged in order to minimize the environmental impacts brought by current practice.

A gender study investigating physics self-efficacy

The underrepresentation of women in physics has been well documented and a source of concern for both policy makers and educators. My dissertation focuses on understanding the role self-efficacy plays in retaining students, particularly women, in introductory physics. I use an explanatory mixed methods approach to first investigate quantitatively the influence of self-efficacy in predicting success and then to qualitatively explore the development of self-efficacy. In the initial quantitative studies, I explore the utility of self-efficacy in predicting the success of introductory physics students, both women and men. Results indicate that self-efficacy is a significant predictor of success for all students. I then disaggregate the data to examine how self-efficacy develops differently for women and men in the introductory physics course. Results show women rely on different sources of self-efficacy than do men, and that a particular instructional environment, Modeling Instruction, has a positive impact on these sources of self-efficacy. In the qualitative phase of the project, this dissertation focuses on the development of self-efficacy. Using the qualitative tool of microanalysis, I introduce a methodology for understanding how self-efficacy develops moment-by-moment using the lens of self-efficacy opportunities. I then use the characterizations of self-efficacy opportunities to focus on a particular course environment and to identify and describe a mechanism by which Modeling Instruction impacts student self-efficacy. Results indicate that the emphasizing the development and deployment of models affords opportunities to impact self-efficacy. The findings of this dissertation indicate that introducing key elements into the classroom, such as cooperative group work, model development and deployment, and interaction with the instructor, create a mechanism by which instructors can impact the self-efficacy of their students. Results from this study indicate that creating a model to impact the retention rates of women in physics should include attending to self-efficacy and designing activities in the classroom that create self-efficacy opportunities.

Hydro-physical characterization of media used in agricultural systems to develop the best management practices for operation of an environmentally sustainable agricultural enterprise

Florida is the second leading horticulture state in the United States with a total annual industry sale of over $12 Billion. Due to its competitive nature, agricultural plant production represents an extremely intensive practice with large amounts of water and fertilizer usage. Agrochemical and water management are vital for efficient functioning of any agricultural enterprise, and the subsequent nutrient loading from such agricultural practices has been a concern for environmentalists. A thorough understanding of the agrochemical and the soil amendments used in these agricultural systems is of special interest as contamination of soils can cause surface and groundwater pollution leading to ecosystem toxicity. The presence of fragile ecosystems such as the Everglades, Biscayne Bay and Big Cypress near enterprises that use such agricultural systems makes the whole issue even more imminent. Although significant research has been conducted with soils and soil mix, there is no acceptable method for determining the hydraulic properties of mixtures that have been subjected to organic and inorganic soil amendments. Hydro-physical characterization of such mixtures can facilitate the understanding of water retention and permeation characteristics of the commonly used mix which can further allow modeling of soil water interactions. The objective of this study was to characterize some of the locally and commercially available plant growth mixtures for their hydro-physical properties and develop mathematical models to correlate these acquired basic properties to the hydraulic conductivity of the mixture. The objective was also to model the response patterns of soil amendments present in those mixtures to different water and fertilizer use scenarios using the characterized hydro-physical properties with the help of Everglades-Agro-Hydrology Model. The presence of organic amendments helps the mixtures retain more water while the inorganic amendments tend to adsorb more nutrients due to their high surface area. The results of these types of characterization can provide a scientific basis for understanding the non-point source water pollution from horticulture production systems and assist in the development of the best management practices for the operation of environmentally sustainable agricultural enterprise

The influence of neighbourhood formality status and socio-economic position on self-rated health among adult men and women: a multilevel, cross sectional, population study from Aleppo, Syria

Background There is substantial evidence from high income countries that neighbourhoods have an influence on health independent of individual characteristics. However, neighbourhood characteristics are rarely taken into account in the analysis of urban health studies from developing countries. Informal urban neighbourhoods are home to about half of the population in Aleppo, the second largest city in Syria (population>2.5 million). This study aimed to examine the influence of neighbourhood socioeconomic status (SES) and formality status on self-rated health (SRH) of adult men and women residing in formal and informal urban neighbourhoods in Aleppo. Methods The study used data from 2038 survey respondents to the Aleppo Household Survey, 2004 (age 18–65 years, 54.8% women, response rate 86%). Respondents were nested in 45 neighbourhoods. Five individual-level SES measures, namely education, employment, car ownership, item ownership and household density, were aggregated to the level of neighbourhood. Multilevel regression models were used to investigate associations. Results We did not find evidence of important SRH variation between neighbourhoods. Neighbourhood average of household item ownership was associated with a greater likelihood of reporting excellent SRH in women; odds ratio (OR) for an increase of one item on average was 2.3 (95% CI 1.3-4.4 (versus poor SRH)) and 1.7 (95% CI 1.1-2.5 (versus normal SRH)), adjusted for individual characteristics and neighbourhood formality. After controlling for individual and neighbourhood SES measures, women living in informal neighbourhoods were less likely to report poor SRH than women living in formal neighbourhoods (OR= 0.4; 95% CI (0.2- 0.8) (versus poor SRH) and OR=0.5; 95%; CI (0.3-0.9) (versus normal SRH). Conclusions Findings support evidence from high income countries that certain characteristic of neighbourhoods affect men and women in different ways. Further research from similar urban settings in developing countries is needed to understand the mechanisms by which informal neighbourhoods influence women’s health.

Medical advice and diabetes self-management reported by Mexican-American, Black- and White-non-Hispanic adults across the United States

Background Diabetes has reached epidemic proportions in the United States, particularly among minorities, and if improperly managed can lead to medical complications and death. Healthcare providers play vital roles in communicating standards of care, which include guidance on diabetes self-management. The background of the client may play a role in the patient-provider communication process. The aim of this study was to determine the association between medical advice and diabetes self care management behaviors for a nationally representative sample of adults with diabetes. Moreover, we sought to establish whether or not race/ethnicity was a modifier for reported medical advice received and diabetes self-management behaviors. Methods We analyzed data from 654 adults aged 21 years and over with diagnosed diabetes [130 Mexican-Americans; 224 Black non-Hispanics; and, 300 White non-Hispanics] and an additional 161 with 'undiagnosed diabetes' [N = 815(171 MA, 281 BNH and 364 WNH)] who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2007-2008. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate whether medical advice to engage in particular self-management behaviors (reduce fat or calories, increase physical activity or exercise, and control or lose weight) predicted actually engaging in the particular behavior and whether the impact of medical advice on engaging in the behavior differed by race/ethnicity. Additional analyses examined whether these relationships were maintained when other factors potentially related to engaging in diabetes self management such as participants' diabetes education, sociodemographics and physical characteristics were controlled. Sample weights were used to account for the complex sample design. Results Although medical advice to the patient is considered a standard of care for diabetes, approximately one-third of the sample reported not receiving dietary, weight management, or physical activity self-management advice. Participants who reported being given medical advice for each specific diabetes self-management behaviors were 4-8 times more likely to report performing the corresponding behaviors, independent of race. These results supported the ecological model with certain caveats. Conclusions Providing standard medical advice appears to lead to diabetes self-management behaviors as reported by adults across the United States. Moreover, it does not appear that race/ethnicity influenced reporting performance of the standard diabetes self-management behavior. Longitudinal studies evaluating patient-provider communication, medical advice and diabetes self-management behaviors are needed to clarify our findings.

A comprehensive assessment of self -report experiences of adoptive parents of special needs children in Florida

Adoption of special needs children is now seen as a life long event whereby the adoptive child and family have unique needs. The need for postplacement resources throughout the life cycle of the adoption process is evident. This exploratory-descriptive research employed a random stratified cross-sectional design. The purpose of the study was to describe, identify, examine, and assess the relative influence of identified empirically and conceptually relevant variables of self-report experiences of adoptive parents of special needs children. Primary areas of exploration included: (1) adoptive children and families' characteristics, (2) postplacement service needs, utilization and satisfaction, and (3) adoptive parents' perceptions of their adoption experiences. A proportionate stratified random mail survey was used to obtain 474 families who had adopted special needs children from the 15 geographic districts which make up the state adoption social service agency in Florida. A 144-item survey questionnaire was used to collect basic information on demographic data, service provision, and adoption experiences. Four research questions were analyzed to test the effect the predictor variables had on willingness to adopt another special needs child, successful adoption, satisfying experience, and realism about problems. All four research questions revealed that the full model and the child's antecedent and the adoptive parents' intervening variable blocks were significant in explaining the variance in the dependent variables. The child's intervening variables alone were only significant in explaining the variance for one of the dependent variables. The results of the statistical analysis on the fifth research question and the three hypotheses determined that (1) only one postplacement service, crisis intervention, had a statistically significant impact on the adoptive parents' perceived level of satisfaction with the adoption experience; (2) adoptive parents who rate their adoption as successful are more likely to express a desire to adopt another special needs child; (3) the more adequate information on the child the adoptive parents perceived that they had prior to placement, the more they perceived they were realistic about the problems they would encounter; and (4) six specific postplacement services were found to be significant in predicting successful adoptions--crisis intervention, outpatient drug/alcohol treatment, maintenance subsidy, physical therapy, special medical equipment, and family counseling. Implications for the social work field and future research are discussed. ^

The relationship of managers' self -reported leadership practices and their spirituality

The role of spirituality in leadership in business and other organizations has gained growing recognition. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between spirituality and nine selected transformational leadership practices. Community leaders (N = 138) in business, education, and other professions who were graduates of a 10-week leadership program, Leadership Fort Lauderdale, from 1994 to 2004 completed the Spirituality Assessment Scale (SAS), the Leadership Practices Inventory (LPI), and four transformational leadership items of the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (MLQ). ^ The predictor variables were participants' scores on the LPI and MLQ. The criterion variable was their score on the SAS. Stepwise multiple regression analysis was used to test the hypothesis: Is there a combination of nine selected transformational leadership practices that would account for a significant portion of the variance of each of two spirituality measures? The Definitive and Correlated dimensions and Total spirituality score of the SAS were used in the analysis. ^ Results showed that two of the LPI leadership practices were significantly related to spirituality. The variable Inspiring a Shared Vision accounted for 10% of the variance of the SAS Definitive dimension. The variable Encouraging the Heart accounted for 30% of the variance of the Correlated dimension. For the Total spirituality score, two models were revealed. In the first model, Encouraging the Heart accounted for 28% of the variance of the total spirituality score. In the second model, Encouraging the Heart and Inspiring a Shared Vision together accounted for 31% of the total spirituality score. None of the transformational leadership practices from the MLQ were significantly related to spirituality. ^ The data partially support the hypothesis: two of the nine leadership variables did in combination correlate with leaders' spirituality. The results also support at least a partial relationship between spirituality and certain transformational leadership practices among leaders in various spheres, such as education, business, and other professions. ^

Self -management factors, influences, and conditions for type 2 diabetes among Black ethnic groups in Miami, Florida and Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire

The Dahlgren and Whitehead ecological theory provides the framework for a cross-sectional design to compare socio-demographic characteristics, living and working conditions, and lifestyle daily habits as well as cultural and ecological factors among six diabetic multiethnic Black groups in Miami and Abidjan. Approximately 180 Black Americans (African-, Caribbean-, and Haitian-) and 180 Black Africans (Akan, Malinke, and Krou) aged 20 years and older were surveyed. During the preliminary of this study participants' attitudes and behaviors were qualitatively assessed (N=60) and a tool was developed to describe, in the main study (N=360), differences in participants' strength of commitment to diabetes lifestyle self-management. Despite similarities found in terms of age and gender, statistically significant differences were also found within and among groups in terms of living and working conditions, education level, and religion. African American groups were more likely to participate in more diabetes classes than Haitian Americans and Caribbean Americans. However, African Americans were less likely to adhere to daily dietary and weight control regimens. Although, Black African groups reported limited access to equipment, facilities, and financial support they were more likely to follow dietary and weight control recommendations than Black American groups. Overall, African American participants showed the poorest attitudes towards recommended foods, Caribbean American respondents reported the best attitudes and behaviors towards weight control regimens, and the Malinke group had significantly more strength of commitment to successful weight control. Furthermore, Black African groups had significantly more strength of commitment to successful dietary adherence and significantly less support for weight control than Black American groups. ^ Significant differences found within Black groups suggest that understanding each patient's conditions may help healthcare professionals in initiating individualized appropriate counseling before goal setting, and in developing culturally relevant type 2 diabetes management programs. Moreover, significant differences exist in strength of commitment to lifestyle adherence among Black groups in Miami and Abidjan. Cultural, socio-demographic factors and self-management habits may explain differences in participants' outcomes. At the policy level, Black groups should not be approached as a homogenous group and assessment of the vulnerability of each ethnic group may be necessary in the decision-making process.^

The use of treatment process variables to differentiate between completers and dropouts for a guided self -change adolescent substance abuse intervention

This study documented differences between substance using adolescent participants who either completed or dropped out of a brief motivational intervention. Therapeutic alliance, working alliance and patient involvement were used to describe differences in treatment process ratings in a sample of majority Latino males who either (a) completed a adolescent substance abuse intervention called Alcohol Treatment Targeting Adolescents In Need (ATTAIN) or (b) dropped out after the first or second Guided Self-Change therapy session. Fifteen-minute segments were copied from the midpoint of previously recorded audio-tapes of Guided Self-Change therapy sessions. Raters were trained to a criterion level of interrater reliability for both the Working Alliance Inventory-Short and Vanderbilt Psychotherapy Process Scale. Correlations among Working Alliance Inventory- Short and Vanderbilt Psychotherapy Process Scale subscales reflected a general similarity in the assignment of ratings to client-therapist dyads. Findings underscore why these concepts are often used interchangeably in the treatment process literature. The Vanderbilt Psychotherapy Process Scale patient participation subscale demonstrated substantial empirical differentiation from overall therapeutic alliance. Discriminant function analysis demonstrated the Working Alliance Inventory-Short goal subscale and the Vanderbilt Psychotherapy Process Scale patient participation and therapist warmth and friendliness subscales as successful classifiers of groups of mostly Latino youth based on completion status. Follow-up logistic regression analyses confirmed major findings and successfully predicted group membership. Treatment process constructs can be used as clinical tools to identify participants who may be susceptible to dropping out of treatment services. Further investigation of treatment process may enhance understanding of the influence of alliance between clients and Guided Self-Change therapists. Investigating the role of treatment process as a critical component of brief motivational interventions for substance-using adolescents will inform both practitioners and researchers regarding the effectiveness of community-based substance abuse interventions for adolescents.