The Distribution Dynamics of Output Multipliers in Scotland 1998–2007

In an input-output context the impact of any particular industrial sector is commonly measured in terms of the output multiplier for that industry. Although such measures are routinely calculated and often used to guide regional industrial policy the behaviour of such measures over time is an area that has attracted little academic study. The output multipliers derived from any one table will have a distribution; for some industries the multiplier will be relatively high, for some it will be relatively low. The recentpublication of consistent input-output tables for the Scottish economy makes it possible to examine trends in this mdistribution over the ten year period 1998-2007. This is done by comparing the means and other summary measures of the distributions, the histograms and the cumulative densities. The results indicate a tendency for the multipliers to increase over the period. A Markov chain modelling approach suggests that this drift is a slow but long term phenomenon which appears not to tend to an equilibrium state. The prime reason for the increase in the output multipliers is traced to a decline in the relative importance of imported (both from the rest of the UK and the rest of the world) intermediate inputs used by Scottish industries. This suggests that models calibrated on the set of tables might have to be interpreted with caution.

Rational Expectations Dynamics: A Methodological Critique

This paper analyses RE macromodels from the methodological perspective. It proposes a particular property, robustness, which should be considered a necessary feature of scienti cally valid models in economics, but which is absent from many RE macromodels. To restore this property many macroeconomists resort to detailed and implausible assumptions, which take their models a long way from simple Rational Expectations. The paper draws attention to the problems inherent in the technique of local linearisation and concludes by proposing the use of nonlinear models, analysed globally.

Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty

This paper extends the Nelson-Siegel linear factor model by developing a flexible macro-finance framework for modeling and forecasting the term structure of US interest rates. Our approach is robust to parameter uncertainty and structural change, as we consider instabilities in parameters and volatilities, and our model averaging method allows for investors' model uncertainty over time. Our time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (NS-DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks and successfully captures plausible time-varying term premia in real time. The proposed model has significant in-sample and out-of-sample predictability for excess bond returns, and the predictability is of economic value.

The Black Box of Business Dynamics

Research in business dynamics has been advancing rapidly in the last years but the translation of the new knowledge to industrial policy design is slow. One striking aspect in the policy area is that although research and analysis do not identify the existence of an specific optimal rate of business creation and business exit, governments everywhere have adopted business start-up support programs with the implicit principle that the more the better. The purpose of this article is to contribute to understand the implications of the available research for policy design. Economic analysis has identified firm heterogeneity as being the most salient characteristic of industrial dynamics, and so a better knowledge of the different types of entrepreneur, their behavior and their specific contribution to innovation and growth would enable us to see into the ‘black box’ of business dynamics and improve the design of appropriate public policies. The empirical analysis performed here shows that not all new business have the same impact on relevant economic variables, and that self-employment is of quite a different economic nature to that of firms with employees. It is argued that public programs should not promote indiscriminate entry but rather give priority to able entrants with survival capacities. Survival of entrants is positively related to their size at birth. Innovation and investment improve the likelihood of survival of new manufacturing start-ups. Investment in R&D increases the risk of failure in new firms, although it improves the competitiveness of incumbents.

Near-linear dynamics in KdV with periodic boundary conditions

Near linear evolution in Korteweg de Vries (KdV) equation with periodic boundary conditions is established under the assumption of high frequency initial data. This result is obtained by the method of normal form reduction.

Pharmacological screening of Ageratum conyzoides L. (mentrasto)

The pharmacological activities of a water extract (WE) of Ageratum conyzoides L, a plant populary known for its analgesic and anti-inflamatory properties, were studied in vivo and in vitro preparations. Oral administration (p.o.) of the water extract (WE, 0.1 to 5 g/Kg) to rats and mice induced quietness and reduced the spontaneous motility. the sleeping time induced by sodium pentobarbital (50 mg/Kg, i.p.) in mice was not altered by previous treatment with We (2 g/Kg, p.o.). The same treatment did not influence the paw edema induced by carrageenan or dextran, nor did it reduce the chronic paw edema induced by complete Freund's adjuvant or formaldehyde in rats. The tail flick response in immersion test and writhings induced by 0.8%acetic acid in mice were not altered by WE either. In isolated guinea-pig ilea WE (0.4 to 4 mg/ml) did not alter the EC50 values of histamine or acetylcholine, but reduced the maximal response to the agonists by 20 to 50%. We (0.01 to 10 mg/ml) produced tonic contractions of the ileal smooth muscle proportional to the doses, reaching a maximum of 75% relatively to the maximum obtained with histamine. Those contractions were blocked by diphenhydramine (10 nM) and reduced by 32% in presence of atropine (10 nM). The results indicated that oral treatment of rodents with A. conyzoides L neither reduced the inflammatory edema nor did it decrease the reaction to pain stimuli. In vitro the extract presented an unexpected histamine-like activity characteristic of a partial agonist. The results did not confirm the popular medicinal indications of the plant.

Screening of the antimalarial activity of plants of the Cucurbitaceae family

Crude ethanolic extracts (CEEs) from two species of Cucurbitaceae, Cucurbita maxima and Momordica charantia (commonly called "abóbora moranga" and melão de São Caetano", respectively) were assayed for antimalarial activity by the 4-d suppressive test. The CEE of dry C. maxima seeds showed strong antimalarial activity following oral administration (259 and 500 mg/kg), reducing by 50% the levels of parasistemia in Plasmodium berghey-infected mice. Treatment of normal animals with 500 mg/Kg of the extract three days before intravenous injection of P. berghei caused a significant 30% reduction in parasitemic levels. No effect was observed when the animals were treated with the CEE only on the day of inoculation. Oral administration of the CEE of dry M. charantia leaves adminstered orally was ineffective up to 500 mg/Kg in lowering the parasitemic levels of malarious mice.

Sorting out measures and definitions of screening participation to improve comparability: The example of colorectal cancer.

Participation is a key indicator of the potential effectiveness of any population-based intervention. Defining, measuring and reporting participation in cancer screening programmes has become more heterogeneous as the number and diversity of interventions have increased, and the purposes of this benchmarking parameter have broadened. This study, centred on colorectal cancer, addresses current issues that affect the increasingly complex task of comparing screening participation across settings. Reports from programmes with a defined target population and active invitation scheme, published between 2005 and 2012, were reviewed. Differences in defining and measuring participation were identified and quantified, and participation indicators were grouped by aims of measure and temporal dimensions. We found that consistent terminology, clear and complete reporting of participation definition and systematic documentation of coverage by invitation were lacking. Further, adherence to definitions proposed in the 2010 European Guidelines for Quality Assurance in Colorectal Cancer Screening was suboptimal. Ineligible individuals represented 1% to 15% of invitations, and variable criteria for ineligibility yielded differences in participation estimates that could obscure the interpretation of colorectal cancer screening participation internationally. Excluding ineligible individuals from the reference population enhances comparability of participation measures. Standardised measures of cumulative participation to compare screening protocols with different intervals and inclusion of time since invitation in definitions are urgently needed to improve international comparability of colorectal cancer screening participation. Recommendations to improve comparability of participation indicators in cancer screening interventions are made.

Pharmacological screening of plants recommended by folk medicine as anti-snake venom: I. Analgesic and anti-inflammatory activities

We have observed that several plants used popularly as anti-snake venom show anti-inflammatory activity. From the list prepared by Rizzini, Mors and Pereira some species have been selected and tested for analgesic activity (number of contortions) and anti-inflammatory activity (Evans blue dye diffusion - 1% solution) according to Whittle's technique (intraperitoneal administration of 0.1 N-acetic acid 0.1 ml/10 g) in mice. Previous oral administration of a 10% infusion (dry plant) or 20% (fresh plant) corresponding to 1 or 2 g/Kg of Apuleia leiocarpa, Casearia sylvestris, Brunfelsia uniflora, Chiococca brachiata, Cynara scolymus, Dorstenia brasiliensis, Elephantopus scaber, Marsypianthes chamaedrys, Mikania glomerata and Trianosperma tayuya demonstrated analgesic and/or anti-inflammatory activities of varied intensity

Firm dynamics support the importance of the embodied question

This paper contributes to the literature on both embodied technical progress and firm dynamics, by formulating an endogenous growth model where selection and imitation play a fundamental role in helping capital good producers to learn about the productivity of technologies embodied in new plants. By calibrating the model to some key aggregates particularly relevant for the embodied capital literature, among them the growth rate of the relative investment price, the model quantitatively replicates the main facts associated to firm dynamics, such as the entry rate and the tail index of the establishment size distribution. In line with the previous literature, it also predicts a contribution to productivity growth of embodied technical progress and selection of around 60%

Heterogeneous dynamics, aggregation and the persistence of economic shocks

It has been recently emphasized that, if individuals have heterogeneous dynamics, estimates of shock persistence based on aggregate data are significatively higher than those derived from its disaggregate counterpart. However, a careful examination of the implications of this statement on the various tools routinely employed to measure persistence is missing in the literature. This paper formally examines this issue. We consider a disaggregate linear model with heterogeneous dynamics and compare the values of several measures of persistence across aggregation levels. Interestingly, we show that the average persistence of aggregate shocks, as measured by the impulse response function (IRF) of the aggregate model or by the average of the individual IRFs, is identical on all horizons. This result remains true even in situations where the units are (short-memory) stationary but the aggregate process is long-memory or even nonstationary. In contrast, other popular persistence measures, such as the sum of the autoregressive coefficients or the largest autoregressive root, tend to be higher the higher the aggregation level. We argue, however, that this should be seen more as an undesirable property of these measures than as evidence of different average persistence across aggregation levels. The results are illustrated in an application using U.S. inflation data.

Dynamics of fibrosis production and resorption in intestinal schistosomiasis of mice

A histological, morphometric and immunocytochemical study of schistosomal periovular granulomas in the liver and intestines of mice revealed that intestinal granulomas are smaller and contain less collagen than those in the liver. After curative treatment intestinal granulomas undergo a relatively more rapid resorption, although the general pattern of collagen degradation apparently does not differ from that observed in the liver. Tendency to form scattered, usually isolated granulomas that are only mildly fibrogenic, coupled with a well-balanced process of resorption appear as the explanation why intestinal fibrosis is not an outstanding feature of schistosomiasis as it is in the liver.

The dynamics of yeast telomeres and silencing proteins through the cell cycle.

Genes integrated near the telomeres of budding yeast have a variegated pattern of gene repression that is mediated by the silent information regulatory proteins Sir2p, Sir3p, and Sir4p. Immunolocalization and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) reveal 6-10 perinuclear foci in which silencing proteins and subtelomeric sequences colocalize, suggesting that these are sites of Sir-mediated repression. Telomeres lacking subtelomeric repeat elements and the silent mating locus, HML, also localize to the periphery of the nucleus. Conditions that disrupt telomere proximal repression disrupt the focal staining pattern of Sir proteins, but not necessarily the localization of telomeric DNA. To monitor the telomere-associated pools of heterochromatin-binding proteins (Sir and Rap1 proteins) during mitotic cell division, we have performed immunofluorescence and telomeric FISH on populations of yeast cells synchronously traversing the cell cycle. We observe a partial release of Rap1p from telomeres in late G2/M, although telomeres appear to stay clustered during G2-phase and throughout mitosis. A partial release of Sir3p and Sir4p during mitosis also occurs. This is not observed upon HU arrest, although other types of DNA damage cause a dramatic relocalization of Sir and Rap1 proteins. The observed cell cycle dynamics were confirmed by direct epifluorescence of a GFP-Rap1p fusion. Using live GFP fluorescence we show that the diffuse mitotic distribution of GFP-Rap1p is restored to the interphase pattern of foci in early G1-phase.