892 resultados para SPATIAL VARIATION


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The research presented in my PhD thesis is part of a wider European project, FishPopTrace, focused on traceability of fish populations and products. My work was aimed at developing and analyzing novel genetic tools for a widely distributed marine fish species, the European hake (Merluccius merluccius), in order to investigate population genetic structure and explore potential applications to traceability scenarios. A total of 395 SNPs (Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms) were discovered from a massive collection of Expressed Sequence Tags, obtained by high-throughput sequencing, and validated on 19 geographic samples from Atlantic and Mediterranean. Genome-scan approaches were applied to identify polymorphisms on genes potentially under divergent selection (outlier SNPs), showing higher genetic differentiation among populations respect to the average observed across loci. Comparative analysis on population structure were carried out on putative neutral and outlier loci at wide (Atlantic and Mediterranean samples) and regional (samples within each basin) spatial scales, to disentangle the effects of demographic and adaptive evolutionary forces on European hake populations genetic structure. Results demonstrated the potential of outlier loci to unveil fine scale genetic structure, possibly identifying locally adapted populations, despite the weak signal showed from putative neutral SNPs. The application of outlier SNPs within the framework of fishery resources management was also explored. A minimum panel of SNP markers showing maximum discriminatory power was selected and applied to a traceability scenario aiming at identifying the basin (and hence the stock) of origin, Atlantic or Mediterranean, of individual fish. This case study illustrates how molecular analytical technologies have operational potential in real-world contexts, and more specifically, potential to support fisheries control and enforcement and fish and fish product traceability.

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Diese Dissertation untersucht den Einfluss von Eiskristallform und räumlicher Inhomogenität von Zirren auf das Retrieval von optischer Wolkendicke und effektivem Eispartikelradius. Zu diesem Zweck werden flugzeuggetragene spektrale Messungen solarer Strahlung sowie solare und langwellige Strahlungstransfersimulationen durchgeführt. Flugzeuggetragene spektrale aufwärtsgerichtete Radianzen (Strahldichten) sind mit dem SMART-Albedometer (Spectral Modular Airborne Radiation measurement sysTem) während des CIRCLE-2 (CIRrus CLoud Experiment-2) Feldexperiments im Mai 2007 gemessen worden. Basierend auf diesen Radianzdaten werden mittels eines Wolkenretrievalalgorithmus optische Wolkendicken und effektive Eispartikelradien anhand von eindimensionalen Strahlungstransferrechnungen bestimmt. Die Auswirkung der Annahme unterschiedlicher Eiskristallformen auf die retrievten Parameter wird durch Variation der Einfachstreueigenschaften der Eispartikel untersucht. Darüber hinaus wird mittels Strahlungstransferrechnungen auch der Einfluss der Eiskristallform auf den Strahlungsantrieb von Eiswolken ermittelt. Die Frage nach dem relativen Einfluss von räumlicher Wolkeninhomogenität und Eiskristallform wird anhand von dreidimensionalen und independent pixel approximation (IPA) Strahlungssimulationen untersucht. Die Analyse basiert auf einer Modelleiswolke, die aus Daten des NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) TC4 (Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling) Feldexperiments im Sommer 2007 in Costa Rica erzeugt wurde. Lokal gesehen können beide Effekte - Eiskristallform und räumliche Eiswolkeninhomogenität - die gleiche Grössenordnung haben und zu einer Unter- bzw. Überschätzung der retrievten Parameter um 40 – 60% führen. Gemittelt über die ganze Wolke ist jedoch der Einfluss der Eiskristallform viel bedeutender als der von räumlichen Inhomogenitäten.

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Thermal effects are rapidly gaining importance in nanometer heterogeneous integrated systems. Increased power density, coupled with spatio-temporal variability of chip workload, cause lateral and vertical temperature non-uniformities (variations) in the chip structure. The assumption of an uniform temperature for a large circuit leads to inaccurate determination of key design parameters. To improve design quality, we need precise estimation of temperature at detailed spatial resolution which is very computationally intensive. Consequently, thermal analysis of the designs needs to be done at multiple levels of granularity. To further investigate the flow of chip/package thermal analysis we exploit the Intel Single Chip Cloud Computer (SCC) and propose a methodology for calibration of SCC on-die temperature sensors. We also develop an infrastructure for online monitoring of SCC temperature sensor readings and SCC power consumption. Having the thermal simulation tool in hand, we propose MiMAPT, an approach for analyzing delay, power and temperature in digital integrated circuits. MiMAPT integrates seamlessly into industrial Front-end and Back-end chip design flows. It accounts for temperature non-uniformities and self-heating while performing analysis. Furthermore, we extend the temperature variation aware analysis of designs to 3D MPSoCs with Wide-I/O DRAM. We improve the DRAM refresh power by considering the lateral and vertical temperature variations in the 3D structure and adapting the per-DRAM-bank refresh period accordingly. We develop an advanced virtual platform which models the performance, power, and thermal behavior of a 3D-integrated MPSoC with Wide-I/O DRAMs in detail. Moving towards real-world multi-core heterogeneous SoC designs, a reconfigurable heterogeneous platform (ZYNQ) is exploited to further study the performance and energy efficiency of various CPU-accelerator data sharing methods in heterogeneous hardware architectures. A complete hardware accelerator featuring clusters of OpenRISC CPUs, with dynamic address remapping capability is built and verified on a real hardware.

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Auf Paulfallen basierende Experimente spielen eine wichtige Rolle in verschiedenen Bereichen der Physik, z.B. der Atomphysik zum Test theoretischer Modelle und der Massenspektroskopie. Die vorliegende Arbeit widmet sich beiden Themengebieten und gliedert sich entsprechend in zwei Teilbereiche: 1) Erdalkali-Ionen sind aufgrund ihrer Energieniveaus optimale Kandidaten für Laserspektroskopie-Experimente mit Ionenfallen und bestens geeignet, um mittels der spektroskopischen Daten die theoretischen Modelle zu testen. Lediglich für Ra+ fehlen bislang als einzigem Erdalkali-Ion diese Daten wie z.B. die Lebensdauern der metastabilen Niveaus. Diese wären auch von Interesse für bereits geplante Radium-Experimente zur Paritätsverletzung. Im ersten Teil dieser Arbeit wird der Aufbau eines Laser-Paulfallenexperiments zur Messung der Lebensdauer des 6D3/2 Zustands von 226Ra+ dokumentiert und es werden Testmessungen mit 138Ba+ vorgestellt. 2) Für die Verwendung der Paulfalle in der Massenspektroskopie und zur Analyse von Reaktionsprodukten ist die Kenntnis der Lage der im Speicherbereich auftretenden nichtlinearen Resonanzen wesentlich, ebenso wie deren Veränderung durch Dämpfung und Raumladung. Im zweiten Teil dieser Arbeit werden detaillierte Untersuchungen der Speicherung großer puffergasgekühlter Ionenwolken an zwei unterschiedlichen Paulfallen-Experimenten vorgestellt. Am ersten wurden 138Ba+-Ionenwolken kontinuierlich durch Laserspektroskopie bzw. über einen elektronischen Nachweis beobachtet, während das zweite N2+-Molekülionen automatisiert destruktiv nachwies. Am N2+-Experiment wurden zwei hochaufgelöste Messungen des ersten Speicherbereichs durchgeführt, die erstmals eine direkte Überprüfung der theoretisch berechneten Verläufe der Resonanzen mit experimentellen Daten erlauben. Die Nachweiseichung ermöglichte dabei zum ersten Mal die Angabe absoluter Ionenzahlen. Im Gegensatz zu vergleichbaren früheren Messungen wurden hierbei die sich überlagernden Speicherbereiche von 4 simultan gespeicherten Ionensorten beobachtet und zur Analyse der Resonanzen herangezogen. Die nichtlinearen Resonanzen wurden untersucht bei Variation von Puffergasdruck und Ionenzahl, wobei kollektive Resonanzen ohne zusätzliche externe Anregung beobachtet wurden. Die gemessenen Raumladungsverschiebungen wurden mit theoretischen Modellen verglichen. Bei Variation des Puffergasdrucks wurde mit Bariumionen die räumliche Ausdehnung der Ionenwolke gemessen und mit Stickstoffionen die Verschiebung des Punktes optimaler Speicherung bestimmt. Dabei wurde festgestellt, daß der zum Ioneneinfang optimale Puffergasdruck kleiner ist als der, bei dem die längsten Speicherdauern erzielt werden. Mit gespeicherten N2+-Ionen wurde die Position extern angeregter kollektiver und individueller Resonanzen im Frequenzspektrum bei Änderung der Parameter Ionenzahl, Puffergasdruck und Dauer der Anregung untersucht, ebenso wie die Resonanzform, die mit theoretischen Linienformen verglichen wurde. Bei Änderung der Fallenparameter wurden verstärkende Effekte zwischen nahen kollektiven Resonanzen festgestellt. Die Beobachtung, welche der im Frequenzspektrum vorher identifizierten Bewegungs-Resonanzen sich bei Variation der Fallenparameter a bzw. q überlagern, ermöglicht eine bislang nicht beschriebene einfache Methode der Bestimmung von nichtlinearen Resonanzen im Stabilitätsdiagramm.

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Alle Doldengewächse (Apiaceae), darunter die größte, weltweit verbreitete Unterfamilie der Apioideen, weisen in ihren Blütenständen sehr einheitliche Merkmale auf. Die ‚Doppeldolden´ werden aus kleinen, weißen oder gelben Blüten gebildet und von vielen unspezialisierten Insekten besucht. Der uniforme Eindruck, der damit erweckt wird, ist unter Umständen ein Grund, dass die zugrundeliegende Morphologie bislang wenig untersucht wurde. Gegenstand der vorliegenden Dissertation ist es daher, die ‚verborgene Diversität´ im Blütenstandsbereich der Apiaceae -Apioideen mit dem Ziel darzustellen, den Einfluss der Architektur der Pflanzen auf die Art der Blütenpräsentation in Raum und Zeit und damit auf das Reproduktionssystem der Art zu ermitteln. Im ersten Kapitel zeigt der Vergleich von neun ausgewählten Arten, dass in den selbstfertilen und unspezifisch bestäubten Pflanzen durch Synchronisation und Rhythmik in der Präsentation von Blüten Fremdbefruchtung gefördert wird. Entweder durchlaufen die Pflanzen dabei nur eine getrennte männliche und weibliche Blühphase (Xanthoselinum alsaticum) oder der moduläre Bau der Pflanzen führt zu einer Folge männlicher und weiblicher Blühphasen (multizyklische Dichogamie). Die Diözie in Trinia glauca kann in diesem Zusammenhang als eine Trennung der Blühphasen auf verschiedengeschlechtliche Individuen gesehen werden. Für die andromonözischen Arten wird gezeigt, dass der Anteil funktional männlicher Blüten mit steigender Doldenordnung nicht einheitlich zu- oder abnimmt. Dadurch fungieren die Pflanzen zu verschiedenen Zeiten und mit unterschiedlicher Stärke eher als Pollenrezeptoren oder Pollendonatoren. Es wird deutlich, dass das ‚uniforme Muster‘ der Apioideen mit Dolden verschiedener Ordnungen, dichogamen Blüten und deren diversen Geschlechtsausbildungen ein komplexes Raum-Zeit-Gefüge zur Optimierung des Reproduktionssystems darstellt. Das zweite Kapitel stellt die Ergebnisse von Manipulationsexperimenten (Handbestäubung, Bestäuberabschirmung, Entfernen von Dolden niedriger Ordnung) an Chaerophyllum bulbosum dar, die zeigen, dass das Raum-Zeit-Gefüge in der Präsentation der Blüten der Art erlaubt, flexibel auf Umwelteinflüsse zu reagieren. Es stellt sich heraus, dass mechanische Beschädigungen kaum Einfluss auf den Andromonöziegrad und prozentualen Fruchtansatz der Individuen nehmen. Grundvoraussetzung der Reaktionsfähigkeit ist wiederum deren modulärer Bau. Dieser erlaubt es den Pflanzen, zusammen mit dem andromonöziebedingten Reservoir an - geschlechtlich flexiblen - männlichen Blüten, in den später angelegten Dolden fehlenden Fruchtansatz der Blüten früh blühender Dolden zu kompensieren. Im dritten Kapitel wird eine vergleichende Merkmalsanalyse an 255 Apioideen-Arten vorgelegt, die alle Verwandtschaftskreise, Wuchsformen und Verbreitungsgebiete der Gruppe repräsentieren. Ziel der Analyse war die Identifizierung von Merkmalssyndromen, die den Zusammenhang zwischen Architektur und Reproduktionssystem verdeutlichen sollten. Interessanterweise sind die einzigen Merkmale, die miteinander einhergehen, Protogynie und die graduelle Abnahme männlicher Blüten mit steigender Doldenordnung. Alle anderen Merkmale variieren unabhängig voneinander und erzeugen auf vielen verschiedenen Wegen immer wieder das gleiche Funktionsmuster, das als ‚breeding syndrome‘ der Apioideae gedeutet werden kann. Die Arbeit leistet einen wichtigen Beitrag zum Verständnis der Blütenstände der Apiaceen und darüber hinaus zu morphologischer Variation in ‚unspezialisierten‘ Reproduktionssystemen. Offensichtlich liegt in den Apioideen der Selektionsdruck auf der Aufrechterhaltung der generalisistischen Bestäubung und überprägt alle morphologisch-phylogenetischen Merkmalsvarianten.

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This study is on albacore (Thunnus alalunga, Bonnaterre 1788), an epi- and mesopelagic oceanic tuna species cosmopolitan in the tropical and temperate waters of all oceans including the Mediterranean Sea, extending in a broad band between 40°N and 40°S. What it’s known about albacore population structure is based on different studies that used fisheries data, RFLP, mtDNA control region and nuDNA markers, blood lectins analysis, individual tags and microsatellite. At the moment, for T. alalunga six management units are recognized: the North Pacific, South Pacific, Indian, North Atlantic, South Atlantic and Mediterranean stocks. In this study I have done a temporal and spatial comparison of genetic variability between different Mediterranean populations of Thunnus alalunga matching an historical dataset ca. from 1920s composed of 43 individuals divided in 3 populations (NADR, SPAIN and CMED) with a modern dataset composed of 254 individuals and 7 populations (BAL, CYP, LIG, TYR, TUR, ADR, ALB). The investigation was possible using a panel of 94 nuclear SNPs, built specifically for the target species at the University of Basque Country UPV/EHU. First analysis done was the Hardy-Weinberg, then the number of clusters (K) was determined using STRUCTURE and to assess the genetic variability, allele frequencies, the average number of alleles per locus, expected (He) and observed (Ho) heterozygosis, and the index of polymorphism (P) was used the software Genetix. Historical and modern samples gives different results, showing a clear loss of genetic diversity over time leading to a single cluster in modern albacore instead of the two found in historical samples. What this study reveals is very important for conservation concerns, and additional research endeavours are needed.

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We investigate causes of the stratigraphic variation revealed in a 177 km, 400 MHz short-pulse radar profile of firn from West Antarctica. The profile covers 56 m depth, and its direction was close to those of the ice flow and mean wind. The average, near-surface accumulation rates calculated from the time delays of one radar horizon consistently show minima on leeward slopes and maxima on windward slopes, confirming an earlier study based on stake observations. The stratigraphic variation includes up to 30 m depth variation in individual horizons over tens of km, fold limbs that become progressively steeper with depth, and fold-hinge loci that change direction or propagate down-ice with depth over distances far less than predicted by the ice speeds. We use an accumulation rate model to show how local rate anomalies and the effect of ice speed upon a periodic variation in accumulation rate cause these phenomena, and we reproduce two key features seen in the stratigraphic variations. We conclude that the model provides an explanation of changes in spatial stratigraphy and local measures of accumulation history given the constraints of surface topography, ice and wind velocities, and a general accumulation rate for an area.

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Physical forcing and biological response within the California Current System (CCS) are highly variable over a wide range of scales. Satellite remote sensing offers the only feasible means of quantifying this variability over the full extent of the CCS. Using six years (1997-2003) of daily SST and chlorophyll imagery, we map the spatial dependence of dominant temporal variability at resolutions sufficient to identify recurrent mesoscale circulation and local pattern associated with coastal topography. Here we describe mean seasonal cycles and interannual variation; intraseasonal variability is left to a companion paper ( K. R. Legaard and A. C. Thomas, manuscript in preparation, 2006). Coastal upwelling dictates seasonality along north-central California, where weak cycles of SST fluctuate between spring minima and late summer maxima and chlorophyll peaks in early summer. Off northern California, chlorophyll maxima are bounded offshore by the seasonally recurrent upwelling jet. Seasonal cycles differ across higher latitudes and in the midlatitude Southern California Bight, where upwelling winds are less vigorous and/or persistent. Seasonality along south-central Baja is strongly affected by processes other than upwelling, despite year-round upwelling-favorable winds. Interannual variation is generally dominated by El Nino and La Nina conditions. Interannual SST variance is greatest along south-central Baja, although interannual variability constitutes a greater fraction of total variance inshore along southern Oregon and much of California. Patterns of interannual chlorophyll variance are consistent with dominant forcing through the widespread depression and elevation of the nutricline during El Nino and La Nina, respectively. Interannual variability constitutes a greater fraction of total chlorophyll variance offshore.

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Six years of daily satellite data are used to quantify and map intraseasonal variability of chlorophyll and sea surface temperature (SST) in the California Current. We define intraseasonal variability as temporal variation remaining after removal of interannual variability and stationary seasonal cycles. Semivariograms are used to quantify the temporal structure of residual time series. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses of semivariograms calculated across the region isolate dominant scales and corresponding spatial patterns of intraseasonal variability. The mode 1 EOFs for both chlorophyll and SST semivariograms indicate a dominant timescale of similar to 60 days. Spatial amplitudes and patterns of intraseasonal variance derived from mode 1 suggest dominant forcing of intraseasonal variability through distortion of large scale chlorophyll and SST gradients by mesoscale circulation. Intraseasonal SST variance is greatest off southern Baja and along southern Oregon and northern California. Chlorophyll variance is greatest over the shelf and slope, with elevated values closely confined to the Baja shelf and extending farthest from shore off California and the Pacific Northwest. Intraseasonal contributions to total SST variability are strongest near upwelling centers off southern Oregon and northern California, where seasonal contributions are weak. Intraseasonal variability accounts for the majority of total chlorophyll variance in most inshore areas save for southern Baja, where seasonal cycles dominate. Contributions of higher EOF modes to semivariogram structure indicate the degree to which intraseasonal variability is shifted to shorter timescales in certain areas. Comparisons of satellite-derived SST semivariograms to those calculated from co-located and concurrent buoy SST time series show similar features.

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Plant survival in alpine landscapes is constantly challenged by the harsh and often unpredictable environmental conditions. Steep environmental gradients and patchy distribution of habitats lead to small size and spatial isolation of populations and restrict gene flow. Agricultural land use has further increased the diversity of habitats below and above the treeline. We studied the consequences of the highly structured alpine landscape for evolutionary processes in four study plants: Epilobium fleischeri, Geum reptans, Campanula thyrsoides and Poa alpina. The main questions were: (1) How is genetic diversity distributed within and among populations and is it affected by altitude, population size or land use? (2) Do reproductive traits such as allocation to sexual or vegetative reproduction vary with altitude or land use? Furthermore, we studied if seed weight increases with altitude. Within-population genetic diversity of the four species was high and mostly not related to altitude and population size. Nevertheless, genetic differentiation among populations was pronounced and strongly increasing with distance. In Poa alpina genetic diversity was affected by land use. Results suggest considerable genetic drift among populations of alpine plants. Reproductive allocation was affected by altitude and land use in Poa alpina and by succession in Geum reptans. Seed weight was usually higher in alpine species than in related lowland species. We conclude that the evolutionary potential to respond to global change is mostly intact in alpine plants, even at high altitude. Phenotypic variability is shaped by adaptive as well as by random evolutionary processes; moreover plastic responses to growth conditions seem to be crucial for survival of plants in the alpine landscape.

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We obtain upper bounds for the total variation distance between the distributions of two Gibbs point processes in a very general setting. Applications are provided to various well-known processes and settings from spatial statistics and statistical physics, including the comparison of two Lennard-Jones processes, hard core approximation of an area interaction process and the approximation of lattice processes by a continuous Gibbs process. Our proof of the main results is based on Stein's method. We construct an explicit coupling between two spatial birth-death processes to obtain Stein factors, and employ the Georgii-Nguyen-Zessin equation for the total bound.

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One of the current challenges in evolutionary ecology is understanding the long-term persistence of contemporary-evolving predator–prey interactions across space and time. To address this, we developed an extension of a multi-locus, multi-trait eco-evolutionary individual-based model that incorporates several interacting species in explicit landscapes. We simulated eco-evolutionary dynamics of multiple species food webs with different degrees of connectance across soil-moisture islands. A broad set of parameter combinations led to the local extinction of species, but some species persisted, and this was associated with (1) high connectance and omnivory and (2) ongoing evolution, due to multi-trait genetic variability of the embedded species. Furthermore, persistence was highest at intermediate island distances, likely because of a balance between predation-induced extinction (strongest at short island distances) and the coupling of island diversity by top predators, which by travelling among islands exert global top-down control of biodiversity. In the simulations with high genetic variation, we also found widespread trait evolutionary changes indicative of eco-evolutionary dynamics. We discuss how the ever-increasing computing power and high-resolution data availability will soon allow researchers to start bridging the in vivo–in silico gap.

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Aim We used combined palaeobotanical and genetic data to assess whether Norway spruce (Picea abies) and Siberian spruce (Picea obovata), two major components of the Eurasian boreal forests, occupied separate glacial refugia, and to test previous hypotheses on their distinction, geographical delimitation and introgression. Location The range of Norway spruce in northern Europe and Siberian spruce in northern Asia. Methods Pollen data and recently compiled macrofossil records were summarized for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), late glacial and Holocene. Genetic variation was assessed in 50 populations using one maternally (mitochondrial nad1) and one paternally (chloroplast trnT–trnL) inherited marker and analysed using spatial analyses of molecular variance (SAMOVA). Results Macrofossils showed that spruce was present in both northern Europe and Siberia at the LGM. Congruent macrofossil and pollen data from the late glacial suggested widespread expansions of spruce in the East European Plain, West Siberian Plain, southern Siberian mountains and the Baikal region. Colonization was largely completed during the early Holocene, except in the formerly glaciated area of northern Europe. Both DNA markers distinguished two highly differentiated groups that correspond to Norway spruce and Siberian spruce and coincide spatially with separate LGM spruce occurrences. The division of the mtDNA variation was geographically well defined and occurred to the east of the Ural Mountains along the Ob River, whereas the cpDNA variation showed widespread admixture. Genetic diversity of both DNA markers was higher in western than in eastern populations. Main conclusions North Eurasian Norway spruce and Siberian spruce are genetically distinct and occupied separate LGM refugia, Norway spruce on the East European Plain and Siberian spruce in southern Siberia, where they were already widespread during the late glacial. They came into contact in the basin of the Ob River and probably hybridized. The lower genetic diversity in the eastern populations may indicate that Siberian spruce suffered more from past climatic fluctuations than Norway spruce.

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1. Recent theoretical studies suggest that the stability of ecosystem processes is not governed by diversity per se, but by multitrophic interactions in complex communities. However, experimental evidence supporting this assumption is scarce.2. We investigated the impact of plant diversity and the presence of above- and below-ground invertebrates on the stability of plant community productivity in space and time, as well as the interrelationship between both stability measures in experimental grassland communities.3. We sampled above-ground plant biomass on subplots with manipulated above- and below-ground invertebrate densities of a grassland biodiversity experiment (Jena Experiment) 1, 4 and 6 years after the establishment of the treatments to investigate temporal stability. Moreover, we harvested spatial replicates at the last sampling date to explore spatial stability.4. The coefficient of variation of spatial and temporal replicates served as a proxy for ecosystem stability. Both spatial and temporal stability increased to a similar extent with plant diversity. Moreover, there was a positive correlation between spatial and temporal stability, and elevated plant density might be a crucial factor governing the stability of diverse plant communities.5. Above-ground insects generally increased temporal stability, whereas impacts of both earthworms and above-ground insects depended on plant species richness and the presence of grasses. These results suggest that inconsistent results of previous studies on the diversity–stability relationship have in part been due to neglecting higher trophic-level interactions governing ecosystem stability.6. Changes in plant species diversity in one trophic level are thus unlikely to mirror changes in multitrophic interrelationships. Our results suggest that both above- and below-ground invertebrates decouple the relationship between spatial and temporal stability of plant community productivity by differently affecting the homogenizing mechanisms of plants in diverse plant communities.7.Synthesis. Species extinctions and accompanying changes in multitrophic interactions are likely to result not only in alterations in the magnitude of ecosystem functions but also in its variability complicating the assessment and prediction of consequences of current biodiversity loss.