Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size

This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecastingperformance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide rangeof window sizes. We show that the tests proposed in the literature may lack the powerto detect predictive ability and might be subject to data snooping across differentwindow sizes if used repeatedly. An empirical application shows the usefulness of themethodologies for evaluating exchange rate models' forecasting ability.

Evaluation et validation des équations de prédiction du risque de diabète dans la population lausannoise : étude CoLaus

Le diabète de type 2 est une maladie fréquente et en augmentation dans le monde entier. Malheureusement, elle est souvent diagnostiquée à un stade ou des complications sont déjà apparues. Depuis quelques années, des scores ont été développés pour identifier les sujets à risque de développer cette maladie. L'utilisation d'un tel score par le praticien pourrait amener ces patients à des mesures préventives, telles que le changement d'hygiène de vie, ou la prescription d'un traitement médicamenteux. Le but de notre étude est de comparer et de valider différents scores de risques de diabète de type 2 et de déterminer leur capacité à prédire la survenue de cette maladie dans la population de la cohorte CoLaus. Les premiers résultats, en étude transversale, ont tout d'abord montré de grandes différences quant à la population à risque d'un score à l'autre. En effet, le nombre de personnes à traiter varie considérablement selon la méthode utilisée. Ces différents scores ont donc nécessité une validation prospective. Ces résultats ont fait l'objet d'une publication (Schmid et col, Diabetes Care. 2011 Aug;34(8):1863-8). Au moyen des données du suivi à 5 ans, il est sorti qu'un score de risque utilisant des variables biologiques et cliniques, ainsi qu'un score utilisant des variables uniquement cliniques, obtenaient de très bon résultats quant à la prédiction du diabète de type 2. En effet, un des scores testés donne une valeur prédictive positive d'environ 20% à 5 ans, ce qui signifie qu'un patient « détecté » sur 5 pourrait bénéficier d'une intervention précoce. Toutefois, ces résultats concernent la population lausannoise et ne sont donc pas forcément applicables à l'ensemble de la population suisse. De plus, de plus amples études sont nécessaires évaluer l'efficacité d'un tel score dans la prévention du diabète en Suisse. Ces résultats ont fait l'objet d'une seconde publication (Schmid et col, Arch Intern Med. 2012 Jan 23;172(2):188-9). Dans un troisième volet de l'étude, l'impact de marqueurs génétiques a été évalué dans un sous- groupe de la population CoLaus. Les résultats n'ont toutefois montré qu'une très faible amélioration de la prédiction du risque en utilisant ces marqueurs. Ceci devrait nous encourager à intensifier les efforts de prévention sur le style de vie pour toute la population, plutôt qu'une approche ciblée sur les personnes génétiquement prédisposées. Ces résultats ont fait l'objet d'une troisième publication (Schmid et col, J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2012 Apr 24. [Epub ahead of print]). La même démarche méthodologique a été utilisée pour évaluer l'importance pronostique de plusieurs marqueurs inflammatoires (interleukines 1 et 6, Τ Ν F-, protéine C-réactive) hépatiques (GT) ou adipocytaires (leptine et adiponectine) dans la survenue du diabète. Ces résultats sont actuellement soumis au Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism).

Qu'attendre du futur du diagnostic en allergologie [What to expect from allergy tests?].

Diagnosis in allergology is facing novel challenges because of the availability not only of purified or recombinant allergens, but also of multitests such as allergen micro-arrays. These new diagnostic opportunities contribute to a better understanding of crossreactivities between respiratory and food allergens. In comparison to current diagnosis based on whole allergen extracts, this novel generation of specific IgE tests is expected to provide better information on the risk of reaction to allergens as well as on its severity. However these new technologies are expensive, and will have to be carefully analyzed in terms of medical usefulness and public health costs.

Sensitivity to Change of the Ultrasound synovitis SONAR Score in RA Patients: Results of the Scqm Cohort

Background/Purpose: Since the end of 2009, an ultrasound scoring call SONAR has been implemented for RA patients as a routine tool in the SCQM registry (Swiss Clinical Quality Management registry for rheumatic diseases). A cross-sectional evaluation of patients with active disease and clinical remission according to the DAS28ESR and the novel ACR/EULAR remission criteria from 2010 clearly indicated a good correlational external validity of synovial pathologies with clinical disease activity in RA (2012 EULAR meeting. Objective: of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity to change of B-mode and Power-Doppler scores in a longitudinal perspective along with the changes in DAS28ESR in two consecutive visits among the patients included in the SCQM registry Methods: All patients who had at least two SONAR scores and simultaneous DAS28ESR evaluations between December 2009 and June 2012 were included in this study. The data came from 20 different operators working mostly in hospitals but also in private practices, who had received a previous teaching over 3 days in a reference center. The SONAR score includes a semi-quantitative B mode and Power-Doppler evaluation of 22 joints from 0 to 3, maximum 66 points for each score. The selection of these 22 joints was done in analogy to a 28 joint count and further restricted to joint regions with published standard ultrasound images. Both elbows and wrist joints were dynamically scanned from the dorsal and the knee joints from a longitudinal suprapatellar view in flexion and in joint extension. The bilateral evaluation of the second to fifth metacarpophalangeal and proximal interphalangeal joints was done from a palmar view in full extension, and the Power-Doppler scoring from a dorsal view with hand and finger position in best relaxation. Results: From the 657 RA patients with at least one score performed, 128 RA patients with 2 or more consultations of DAS28ESR, and a complete SONAR data set could be included. The mean (SD) time between the two evaluations was 9.6 months (54). The mean (SD) DAS28ESR was: 3.5 (1.3) at the first visit and was significantly lower (mean 3.0, SD.2.0, p:_0.0001) at the second visit. The mean (SD) of the total B mode was 12 (9.5) at baseline and 9.6 (7.6) at follow-up (p_0.0004). The Power-Doppler score at entry was 2.9 (5.7) and 1.9 (3.6), at the second visit, p _0.0001. The Pearson r correlation between change in DAS28ESR and the B mode was 0.44 (95% CI: 0.29, 0.57, p_ 0.0001),and 0.35 (95% CI: 0.16, 0.50, p _ 0.0002) for the Power-Doppler score,. Clinical relevant change in DAS (_1.1) was associated with a change of total B mode score _3 in 23/32 patients and a change a Doppler score _0.5 in 19/26. Conclusion: This study confirms that the SONAR score is sensitive to change and provides a complementary method of assessing RA disease activity to the DAS that could be very useful in daily practice.

Effects of antiresorptive agents on bone micro-architecture assessed by Trabecular Bone Score in women age 50 and older. The Manitoba Prospective Study

Antiresorptive agents such as bisphosphonates induce a rapid increase of BMD during the 1st year of treatment and a partial maintenance of bone architecture. Trabecular Bone Score (TBS), a new grey-level texture measurement that can be extracted from the DXA image, correlates with 3D parameters of bone micro-architecture. Aim: To evaluate the longitudinal effect of antiresorptive agents on spine BMD and on site-matched spine microarchitecture as assessed by TBS. Methods: From the BMD database for Province of Manitoba, Canada, we selected women age >50 with paired baseline and follow up spine DXA examinations who had not received any prior HRT or other antiresorptive drug.Women were divided in two subgroups: (1) those not receiving any HRT or antiresorptive drug during follow up (=non-users) and (2) those receiving non-HRT antiresorptive drug during follow up (=users) with high adherence (medication possession ratio >75%) from a provincial pharmacy database system. Lumbar spine TBS was derived by the Bone Disease Unit, University of Lausanne, for each spine DXA examination using anonymized files (blinded from clinical parameters and outcomes). Effects of antiresorptive treatment for users and non-users on TBS and BMD at baseline and during mean 3.7 years follow-up were compared. Results were expressed % change per year. Results: 1150 non-users and 534 users met the inclusion criteria. At baseline, users and non-users had a mean age and BMI of [62.2±7.9 vs 66.1±8.0 years] and [26.3±4.7 vs 24.7±4.0 kg/m²] respectively. Antiresorptive drugs received by users were bisphosphonates (86%), raloxifene (10%) and calcitonin (4%). Significant differences in BMD change and TBS change were seen between users and nonusers during follow-up (p<0.0001). Significant decreases in mean BMD and TBS (−0.36± 0.05% per year; −0.31±0.06% per year) were seen for non-users compared with baseline (p<0.001). A significant increase in mean BMD was seen for users compared with baseline (+1.86±0.0% per year, p<0.0018). TBS of users also increased compared with baseline (+0.20±0.08% per year, p<0.001), but more slowly than BMD. Conclusion: We observed a significant increase in spine BMD and a positive maintenance of bone micro-architecture from TBS with antiresorptive treatment, whereas the treatment naïve group lost both density and micro-architecture. TBS seems to be responsive to treatment and could be suitable for monitoring micro-architecture. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled ECTS 2011. Disclosure of interest: M.-A. Krieg: None declared, A. Goertzen: None declared, W. Leslie: None declared, D. Hans Consulting fees from Medimaps.

Therapeutic drug monitoring and pharmacogenetic tests as tools in pharmacovigilance.

Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) and pharmacogenetic tests play a major role in minimising adverse drug reactions and enhancing optimal therapeutic response. The response to medication varies greatly between individuals, according to genetic constitution, age, sex, co-morbidities, environmental factors including diet and lifestyle (e.g. smoking and alcohol intake), and drug-related factors such as pharmacokinetic or pharmacodynamic drug-drug interactions. Most adverse drug reactions are type A reactions, i.e. plasma-level dependent, and represent one of the major causes of hospitalisation, in some cases leading to death. However, they may be avoidable to some extent if pharmacokinetic and pharmacogenetic factors are taken into consideration. This article provides a review of the literature and describes how to apply and interpret TDM and certain pharmacogenetic tests and is illustrated by case reports. An algorithm on the use of TDM and pharmacogenetic tests to help characterise adverse drug reactions is also presented. Although, in the scientific community, differences in drug response are increasingly recognised, there is an urgent need to translate this knowledge into clinical recommendations. Databases on drug-drug interactions and the impact of pharmacogenetic polymorphisms and adverse drug reaction information systems will be helpful to guide clinicians in individualised treatment choices.

2011 lAAF World Championships in Daegu: blood tests for all athletes in the framework of the Athlete Biological Passport.

The 2011 International Association of Athletics Federation (IAAF) World Championships took place in Daegu, Korea. For the first time, all athletes were blood tested prior to the competition in order to give a clear signal to the world athletic community of the wish to enter into the era of the Athlete Biological Passport and fight against doping in their sport. The hematological parameters were measured on site. Thus, a mobile-accredited laboratory for blood testing was created in Daegu. Two serum tubes were collected for clinical chemistry and hormonal analyses in order to build the bases of the endocrine and the androgen (steroid) modules of the Athlete Biological Passport in blood. This paper describes some of the main challenges the project faced with regard to the large number of athletes, competing in different disciplines, and the logistic problems that had to be solved for smart implementation of one of the most complex operations organized in the last decade in the fight against doping.

Viral suppression rates in salvage treatment with raltegravir improved with the administration of genotypic partially active or inactive nucleoside/tide reverse transcriptase inhibitors.

BACKGROUND: Nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) are often administered in salvage therapy even if genotypic resistance tests (GRTs) indicate high-level resistance, but little is known about the benefit of these additional NRTIs. METHODS: The effect of <2 compared with 2 NRTIs on viral suppression (HIV-1 RNA < 50 copies/mL) at week 24 was studied in salvage patients receiving raltegravir. Intent-to-treat and per-protocol analyses were performed; last observation carried forward imputation was used to deal with missing information. Logistic regressions were weighted to create a pseudopopulation in which the probability of receiving <2 and 2 NRTIs was unrelated to baseline factors predicting treatment response. RESULTS: One-hundred thirty patients were included, of whom 58.5% (n = 76) received <2 NRTIs. NRTIs were often replaced by other drug classes. Patients with 2 NRTIs received less additional drug classes compared with patients with <2 NRTIs [median (IQR): 1 (1-2) compared with 2 (1-2), P Wilcoxon < 0.001]. The activity of non-NRTI treatment components was lower in the 2 NRTIs group compared with the <2 NRTIs group [median (IQR) genotypic sensitivity score: 2 (1.5-2.5) compared with 2.5 (2-3), P Wilcoxon < 0.001]. The administration of <2 NRTIs was associated with a worse viral suppression rate at week 24. The odds ratios were 0.34 (95% confidence interval: 0.13 to 0.89, P = 0.027) and 0.19 (95% confidence interval: 0.05 to 0.79, P = 0.023) when performing the last observation carried forward and the per-protocol approach, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings showed that partially active or inactive NRTIs contribute to treatment response, and thus the use of 2 NRTIs in salvage regimens that include raltegravir seems warranted.

Schizotypal perceptual aberrations of time: correlation between score, behavior and brain activity.

A fundamental trait of the human self is its continuum experience of space and time. Perceptual aberrations of this spatial and temporal continuity is a major characteristic of schizophrenia spectrum disturbances--including schizophrenia, schizotypal personality disorder and schizotypy. We have previously found the classical Perceptual Aberration Scale (PAS) scores, related to body and space, to be positively correlated with both behavior and temporo-parietal activation in healthy participants performing a task involving self-projection in space. However, not much is known about the relationship between temporal perceptual aberration, behavior and brain activity. To this aim, we composed a temporal Perceptual Aberration Scale (tPAS) similar to the traditional PAS. Testing on 170 participants suggested similar performance for PAS and tPAS. We then correlated tPAS and PAS scores to participants' performance and neural activity in a task of self-projection in time. tPAS scores correlated positively with reaction times across task conditions, as did PAS scores. Evoked potential mapping and electrical neuroimaging showed self-projection in time to recruit a network of brain regions at the left anterior temporal cortex, right temporo-parietal junction, and occipito-temporal cortex, and duration of activation in this network positively correlated with tPAS and PAS scores. These data demonstrate that schizotypal perceptual aberrations of both time and space, as reflected by tPAS and PAS scores, are positively correlated with performance and brain activation during self-projection in time in healthy individuals along the schizophrenia spectrum.

Scale Effects in Hydraulic Model Tests of Rock Protected Structures, HR-119, 1970

A laboratory investigation was undertaken to determine the limiting model Reynolds number above which the scour behavior of rock protected structures can be reproduced in hydraulic models scaled according to the Froude criterion. A submerged jet was passed over an initially full scour pocket containing uniform glass spheres and the rate of scour was measured as a function of time. The dimensions of the scour pocket and jet and the particle diameters were varied as needed to maintain strict geometric similarity. For each of two different Froude numbers the Reynolds number was varied over a wide range. The normalized scour rate was found to be practically independent of the Reynolds number, R, (based on the jet velocity and particle diameter) at values of R above about 2.5 x 10^3, and to decrease with Rat smaller values. A grid placed in the jet was found to have a very strong effect on the scour rate. In an attempt to explain the effect of R on the scour behavior, turbulent pressure and velocity fluctuations were measured in air flows and water flows, respectively, over rigid scour pockets having the same geometry as those formed in the scour experiments. The normalized spectra of the fluctuations were found to be nearly independent of R, but the flow pattern was found to be very sensitive to the inlet condition, the jet deflecting upward or downward in a not wholly explainable manner. This indicates that scour behavior can be modeled only if the approach flow is also accurately modeled.

Pile Design and Tests for Integral Abutment Bridges, HR-273, Addendum, 1987

Addendum to HR-273