Uncertainty in climate change impacts on basin-scale freshwater resources – preface to the special issue: the QUEST-GSI methodology and synthesis of results

This paper presents a preface to this Special Issue on the results of the QUEST-GSI (Global Scale Impacts) project on climate change impacts on catchment-scale water resources. A detailed description of the unified methodology, subsequently used in all studies in this issue, is provided. The project method involved running simulations of catchment-scale hydrology using a unified set of past and future climate scenarios, to enable a consistent analysis of the climate impacts around the globe. These scenarios include "policy-relevant" prescribed warming scenarios. This is followed by a synthesis of the key findings. Overall, the studies indicate that in most basins the models project substantial changes to river flow, beyond that observed in the historical record, but that in many cases there is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of the projected changes. The implications of this for adaptation activities are discussed.

Hydrological cycle in the Danube basin in present-day and XXII century simulations by IPCCAR4 global climate models

We present an intercomparison and verification analysis of 20 GCMs (Global Circulation Models) included in the 4th IPCC assessment report regarding their representation of the hydrological cycle on the Danube river basin for 1961–2000 and for the 2161–2200 SRESA1B scenario runs. The basin-scale properties of the hydrological cycle are computed by spatially integrating the precipitation, evaporation, and runoff fields using the Voronoi-Thiessen tessellation formalism. The span of the model- simulated mean annual water balances is of the same order of magnitude of the observed Danube discharge of the Delta; the true value is within the range simulated by the models. Some land components seem to have deficiencies since there are cases of violation of water conservation when annual means are considered. The overall performance and the degree of agreement of the GCMs are comparable to those of the RCMs (Regional Climate Models) analyzed in a previous work, in spite of the much higher resolution and common nesting of the RCMs. The reanalyses are shown to feature several inconsistencies and cannot be used as a verification benchmark for the hydrological cycle in the Danubian region. In the scenario runs, for basically all models the water balance decreases, whereas its interannual variability increases. Changes in the strength of the hydrological cycle are not consistent among models: it is confirmed that capturing the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle is not an easy task over land areas. Moreover, in several cases we find that qualitatively different behaviors emerge among the models: the ensemble mean does not represent any sort of average model, and often it falls between the models’ clusters.

Reconciling observed and modelled phytoplankton dynamics in a major lowland UK river system, the Thames

This study aims to elucidate the key mechanisms controlling phytoplankton growth and decay within the Thames basin through the application of a modified version of an established river-algal model and comparison with observed stream water chlorophyll-a concentrations. The River Thames showed a distinct simulated phytoplankton seasonality and behaviour having high spring, moderate summer and low autumn chlorophyll-a concentrations. Three main sections were identified along the River Thames with different phytoplankton abundance and seasonality: (i) low chlorophyll-a concentrations from source to Newbridge; (ii) steep concentration increase between Newbridge and Sutton; and (iii) high concentrations with a moderate increase in concentration from Sutton to the end of the study area (Maidenhead). However, local hydrologic (e.g. locks) and other conditions (e.g. radiation, water depth, grazer dynamics, etc.) affected the simulated growth and losses. The model achieved good simulation results during both calibration and testing through a range of hydrological and nutrient conditions. Simulated phytoplankton growth was controlled predominantly by residence time, but during medium–low flow periods available light, water temperature and herbivorous grazing defined algal community development. These results challenge the perceived importance of in-stream nutrient concentrations as the perceived primary control on phytoplankton growth and death.

Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins

Providing probabilistic forecasts using Ensemble Prediction Systems has become increasingly popular in both the meteorological and hydrological communities. Compared to conventional deterministic forecasts, probabilistic forecasts may provide more reliable forecasts of a few hours to a number of days ahead, and hence are regarded as better tools for taking uncertainties into consideration and hedging against weather risks. It is essential to evaluate performance of raw ensemble forecasts and their potential values in forecasting extreme hydro-meteorological events. This study evaluates ECMWF’s medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation over the period 2008/01/01-2012/09/30 on a selected mid-latitude large scale river basin, the Huai river basin (ca. 270,000 km2) in central-east China. The evaluation unit is sub-basin in order to consider forecast performance in a hydrologically relevant way. The study finds that forecast performance varies with sub-basin properties, between flooding and non-flooding seasons, and with the forecast properties of aggregated time steps and lead times. Although the study does not evaluate any hydrological applications of the ensemble precipitation forecasts, its results have direct implications in hydrological forecasts should these ensemble precipitation forecasts be employed in hydrology.

Cost effectiveness of mitigation measures for water security and water quality in the River Thames catchment: impacts of changing climate, land use and water scarcity

The catchment of the River Thames, the principal river system in southern England, provides the main water supply for London but is highly vulnerable to changes in climate, land use and population. The river is eutrophic with significant algal blooms with phosphorus assumed to be the primary chemical indicator of ecosystem health. In the Thames Basin, phosphorus is available from point sources such as wastewater treatment plants and from diffuse sources such as agriculture. In order to predict vulnerability to future change, the integrated catchments model for phosphorus (INCA-P) has been applied to the river basin and used to assess the cost-effectiveness of a range of mitigation and adaptation strategies. It is shown that scenarios of future climate and land-use change will exacerbate the water quality problems, but a range of mitigation measures can improve the situation. A cost-effectiveness study has been undertaken to compare the economic benefits of each mitigation measure and to assess the phosphorus reductions achieved. The most effective strategy is to reduce fertilizer use by 20% together with the treatment of effluent to a high standard. Such measures will reduce the instream phosphorus concentrations to close to the EU Water Framework Directive target for the Thames.

Population structure of the migratory fish Prochilodus lineatus (Characiformes) from rio Grande basin (Brazil), an area fragmented by dams

1. Prochilodus lineatus (Prochilodontidae, Characiformes) is a migratory species of great economic importance both in fisheries and aquaculture that is found throughout the Jacui, Paraiba do Sul, Parana, Paraguay and Uruguay river basins in South America. Earlier population studies of P. lineatus in the rio Grande basin (Parana basin) indicated the existence of a single population; however, the range of this species has been fragmented by the construction of several dams. Such dams modified the environmental conditions and could have constrained the reproductive migration of P. lineatus, possibly leading to changes in the population genetic structure. 2. In order to evaluate how genetic diversity is allocated in the rio Grande basin, 141 specimens of P. lineatus from eight collection sites were analysed using polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) with 15 restriction enzymes. 3. Forty-six haplotypes were detected, and 70% of them are restricted. The mean genetic variability indexes (h = 0.7721 and pi = 1.6%) were similar to those found in natural populations with a large effective size. Fst and Exact Test values indicated a lack of structuring among the samples, and the model of isolation by distance was tested and rejected. 4. The haplotype network indicated that this population of P. lineatus has been maintained as a single variable stock with some differences in the genetic composition (haplotypes) between samples. Indications of population expansion were detected, and this finding was supported by neutrality tests and mismatch distribution analyses. 5. The present study focused on regions between dams to serve as a parameter for further evaluations of genetic variability and the putative impact of dams and repopulation programmes in natural populations of P. lineatus. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Potamotrygon tigrina, a new species of freshwater stingray from the upper Amazon basin, closely related to Potamotrygon schroederi Fernandez-Yepez, 1958 (Chondrichthyes: Potamotrygonidae)

A new species of Neotropical freshwater stingray, family Potamotrygonidae, is described from the Rio Nanay in the upper Rio Amazonas basin of Peru. Potamotrygon tigrina, n. sp., is easily distinguished from all congeners by its conspicuous dorsal disc coloration, composed of bright yellow to orange vermiculations strongly interwoven with a dark-brown to deep-black background. Additional features that in combination diagnose P. tigrina, n. sp., include the presence of a single angular cartilage, low and not closely grouped dorsal tail spines, and coloration of tail composed of relatively wide and alternating bands of creamy white and dark brown to black. Potamotrygon tigrina is closely related to Potamotrygon schroederi Fernandez-Yepez, 1958, which occurs in the Rio Negro (Brazil) and Rio Orinoco (Venezuela, Colombia). Both species are very similar in proportions and counts, and share features hypothesized to be derived within Potamotrygonidae, related to their specific angular cartilage morphology, distal tail color, dorsal tail-spine pattern, and ventral lateral-line system. To further substantiate the description of P. tigrina, n. sp., we provide a redescription of P. schroederi based on material from the Rio Negro (Brazil) and Rio Orinoco (Venezuela). Specimens from the two basins differ in number of vertebral centra and slightly in size and frequency of rosettes on dorsal disc, distinctions that presently do not warrant their specific separation. Potamotrygon tigrina is frequently commercialized in the international aquarium trade but virtually nothing is known of its biology or conservation status.

Two new species of Loricariidae (Teleostei: Siluriformes) from main channels of the upper and middle Amazon Basin, with discussion of deep water specialization in loricariids

Hemiancistrus pankimpuju, new species, and Panaque bathyphilus, new species, are described from the main channel of the upper (Maranon) and middle (Solimoes)Amazon River, respectively. Both species are diagnosed by having a nearly white body, long filamentous extensions of both simple caudal-fin rays, small eyes, absence of an iris operculum and unique combinations of morphometrics. The coloration and morphology of these species, unique within Loricariidae, are hypothesized to be apomorphies associated with life in the dark, turbid depths of the Amazon mainstem. Extreme elongation of the caudal filaments in these and a variety of other main channel catfishes is hypothesized to have a mechanosensory function associated with predator detection.

Small mammals of the mid-Araguaia River in central Brazil, with the description of a new species of climbing rat

The mid-Araguaia River basin in central Brazil is considered a priority area for biodiversity conservation, and Parque Estadual do Cantao (PEC) is one of the most important protected areas in this ecotone between Cerrado and Amazonia. This area suffers an intensive human pressure with high rates of deforestation, and still remains poorly studied in terms of biodiversity. From June 2007 to November 2008 we sampled small mammals from both banks of the mid-Araguaia River, in the states of Tocantins and Para. Data are given about morphological traits, geographic distribution and natural history of 22 species of small non-volant mammals (eight marsupials and 14 rodents) surveyed at PEC and its surroundings. We also present mitochondrial phylogenetic analyses that allow species identification within the genera: Oecomys, Oligoryzomys and Rhipidomys, and delineate an undescribed species of Thrichomys. Based on morphologic and molecular data, we describe a new species of Rhipidomys previously assigned to R. nitela, which is apparently endemic to the Araguaia-Tocantins basin in the Cerrado. Additionally, our phylogenetic analyses provide support for the role played by the Araguaia River as an important geographic barrier for two sister species of Rhipidomys.

Fatty acids as trophic biomarkers in vitellogenic females in an impounded tropical river

Fatty acids have been used in marine biogeochemistry as food chain biomarkers, but in freshwater these studies are rare. In order to evaluate the fatty acid potential as biomarkers in freshwater, their profile was analyzed during vitellogenesis in two fish species, in both waterfall and reservoir environments of the Paraiba do Sul River Basin. Detrivorous Hypostomus affinis and omnivorous Geophagus brasiliensis seem to elongate and desaturate polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) and transfer them to the ovaries` phospholipids. Waterfall Geophagus brasiliensis have more highly unsaturated fatty acids in the liver, but in the reservoir, accumulation mainly occurs in muscle and ovary triglycerides, suggesting trophic opportunism and a plasticity during vitellogenesis. In Hypostomus affinis, PUFA alteration occurs only in the reservoir, suggesting a high phytoplankton occurrence. Eutrophication and water speed is reflected in Hypostomus affinis ovaries by higher PUFAn3 and bacterial fatty acids. As in marine environments, analysis of mono- and polyunsaturated fatty acids during vitellogenesis can be used as a tool in food chain studies in freshwater.

Evolution of a rift basin dominated by subaerial deposits: The Guaritas Rift, Early Cambrian, Southern Brazil

Most existing models for the evolution of rift basins predict the development of deep-water depositional systems during the stage of greatest tectonic subsidence, when accommodation generation potentially outpaces sedimentation. Despite this, some rift basins do not present deep-water systems, instead being dominated by subaerial deposits. This paper focuses on one of these particular rift basins, the Cambrian Guaritas Rift, Southern Brazil, characterized by more than 1500 m of alluvial and aeolian strata deposited in a 50-km-wide basin. The deposits of the Guaritas Rift can be ascribed to four depositional systems: basin-border alluvial fans, bedload-dominated ephemeral rivers, mixed-load ephemeral rivers and aeolian dune fields. These four systems are in part coeval and in part succeed each other, forming three stages of basin evolution: (i) Rift Initiation to Early Rift Climax stage, (ii) Mid to Late Rift Climax stage, and (iii) Early Post-Rift stage. The first stage comprises most of the Guaritas Group and is characterized by homogeneous bed-load-dominated river deposits, which do not clearly record the evolution of subsidence rates. The onset of sedimentation of finer-grained deposits occurred as a consequence of a reactivation event that changed the outline of the basin and the distribution of the nearby highlands. This strongly suggests that the capture of the main river system to another depression decreased the sediment supply to the basin. The study of the Guaritas Rift indicates that rift basins in which the sediment supply exceeds the accommodation generation occur as a consequence of moderate subsidence combined with the capture of a major river system to the basin during the initial stages of basin evolution. In these basins, changes in the average discharge of the river system or tectonic modification of the drainage network may be the major control on the stratigraphic architecture. (c) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Flood Risk Management In Small Urban River Using A Sustainable Urban Drainage System: Wortley Beck, Leeds, Uk

In the UK, urban river basins are particularly vulnerable to flash floods due to short and intense rainfall. This paper presents potential flood resilience approaches for the highly urbanised Wortley Beck river basin, south west of the Leeds city centre. The reach of Wortley Beck is approximately 6km long with contributing catchment area of 30km2 that drain into the River Aire. Lower Wortley has experienced regular flooding over the last few years from a range of sources, including Wortley Beck and surface and ground water, that affects properties both upstream and downstream of Farnley Lake as well as Wortley Ring Road. This has serious implications for society, the environment and economy activity in the City of Leeds. The first stage of the study involves systematically incorporating Wortley Beck’s land scape features on an Arc-GIS platform to identify existing green features in the region. This process also enables the exploration of potential blue green features: green spaces, green roofs, water retention ponds and swales at appropriate locations and connect them with existing green corridors to maximize their productivity. The next stage is involved in developing a detailed 2D urban flood inundation model for the Wortley Beck region using the CityCat model. CityCat is capable to model the effects of permeable/impermeable ground surfaces and buildings/roofs to generate flood depth and velocity maps at 1m caused by design storm events. The final stage of the study is involved in simulation of range of rainfall and flood event scenarios through CityCat model with different blue green features. Installation of other hard engineering individual property protection measures through water butts and flood walls are also incorporated in the CityCat model. This enables an integrated sustainable flood resilience strategy for this region.

Hydropower Energy Simulation Using Mike 11 Model; A Case Study In South Germany's Small Run-Of-River Hydropower Plants

Renewable energy production is a basic supplement to stabilize rapidly increasing global energy demand and skyrocketing energy price as well as to balance the fluctuation of supply from non-renewable energy sources at electrical grid hubs. The European energy traders, government and private company energy providers and other stakeholders have been, since recently, a major beneficiary, customer and clients of Hydropower simulation solutions. The relationship between rainfall-runoff model outputs and energy productions of hydropower plants has not been clearly studied. In this research, association of rainfall, catchment characteristics, river network and runoff with energy production of a particular hydropower station is examined. The essence of this study is to justify the correspondence between runoff extracted from calibrated catchment and energy production of hydropower plant located at a catchment outlet; to employ a unique technique to convert runoff to energy based on statistical and graphical trend analysis of the two, and to provide environment for energy forecast. For rainfall-runoff model setup and calibration, MIKE 11 NAM model is applied, meanwhile MIKE 11 SO model is used to track, adopt and set a control strategy at hydropower location for runoff-energy correlation. The model is tested at two selected micro run-of-river hydropower plants located in South Germany. Two consecutive calibration is compromised to test the model; one for rainfall-runoff model and other for energy simulation. Calibration results and supporting verification plots of two case studies indicated that simulated discharge and energy production is comparable with the measured discharge and energy production respectively.

Real-Time Control Of Floods Along The Demer River, Belgium, By Means Of MPC In Combination With GA And A Fast Conceptual River Model

Climate model projections show that climate change will further increase the risk of flooding in many regions of the world. There is a need for climate adaptation, but building new infrastructure or additional retention basins has its limits, especially in densely populated areas where open spaces are limited. Another solution is the more efficient use of the existing infrastructure. This research investigates a method for real-time flood control by means of existing gated weirs and retention basins. The method was tested for the specific study area of the Demer basin in Belgium but is generally applicable. Today, retention basins along the Demer River are controlled by means of adjustable gated weirs based on fixed logic rules. However, because of the high complexity of the system, only suboptimal results are achieved by these rules. By making use of precipitation forecasts and combined hydrological-hydraulic river models, the state of the river network can be predicted. To fasten the calculation speed, a conceptual river model was used. The conceptual model was combined with a Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm and a Genetic Algorithm (GA). The MPC algorithm predicts the state of the river network depending on the positions of the adjustable weirs in the basin. The GA generates these positions in a semi-random way. Cost functions, based on water levels, were introduced to evaluate the efficiency of each generation, based on flood damage minimization. In the final phase of this research the influence of the most important MPC and GA parameters was investigated by means of a sensitivity study. The results show that the MPC-GA algorithm manages to reduce the total flood volume during the historical event of September 1998 by 46% in comparison with the current regulation. Based on the MPC-GA results, some recommendations could be formulated to improve the logic rules.

New species of Harttia (Loricariidae, Loricariinae) from the Rio Sao Francisco Basin

A new species of the mailed catfish genus Harttia is described from the Sao Francisco River drainage, States of Minas Gerais and Bahia, Brazil. The new species is distinguished from congeners by the combination of an abdominal region covered by small bony plates; plates 3-4 times in eye diameter; interorbital width 3.1-4.0 in head length and greater than eye diameter; body width at anal fin origin 6.3-8.3 in standard length; margins of the head and pectoral fin spine of mature males with elongate and conspicuous odontodes; anal fin of males longer than of females. A key to Harttia species and a comparison with other species are provided.