Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

Retest reliability of individual p3 topography assessed by high density electroencephalography.

BACKGROUND Some controversy remains about the potential applicability of cognitive potentials for evaluating the cerebral activity associated with cognitive capacity. A fundamental requirement is that these neurophysiological parameters show a high level of stability over time. Previous studies have shown that the reliability of diverse parameters of the P3 component (latency and amplitude) ranges between moderate and high. However, few studies have paid attention to the retest reliability of the P3 topography in groups or individuals. Considering that changes in P3 topography have been related to different pathologies and healthy aging, the main objective of this article was to evaluate in a longitudinal study (two sessions) the reliability of P3 topography in a group and at the individual level. RESULTS The correlation between sessions for P3 topography in the grand average of groups was high (r = 0.977, p<0.001). The within-subject correlation values ranged from 0.626 to 0.981 (mean: 0.888). In the between-subjects topography comparisons, the correlation was always lower for comparisons between different subjects than for within-subjects correlations in the first session but not in the second session. CONCLUSIONS The present study shows that P3 topography is highly reliable for group analysis (comprising the same subjects) in different sessions. The results also confirmed that retest reliability for individual P3 maps is suitable for follow-up studies for a particular subject. Moreover, P3 topography appears to be a specific marker considering that the between-subjects correlations were lower than the within-subject correlations. However, P3 topography appears more similar between subjects in the second session, demonstrating that is modulated by experience. Possible clinical applications of all these results are discussed.

Strong reproductive barriers in a narrow hybrid zone of West-Mediterranean green toads (Bufo viridis subgroup) with Plio-Pleistocene divergence

Background One key question in evolutionary biology deals with the mode and rate at which reproductive isolation accumulates during allopatric speciation. Little is known about secondary contacts of recently diverged anuran species. Here we conduct a multi-locus field study to investigate a contact zone between two lineages of green toads with an estimated divergence time of 2.7 My, and report results from preliminary experimental crosses. Results The Sicilian endemic Bufo siculus and the Italian mainland-origin B. balearicus form a narrow hybrid zone east of Mt. Etna. Despite bidirectional mtDNA introgression over a ca. 40 km North-South cline, no F1 hybrids could be found, and nuclear genomes display almost no admixture. Populations from each side of the contact zone showed depressed genetic diversity and very strong differentiation (FST = 0.52). Preliminary experimental crosses point to a slightly reduced fitness in F1 hybrids, a strong hybrid breakdown in backcrossed offspring (F1 x parental, with very few reaching metamorphosis) and a complete and early mortality in F2 (F1 x F1). Conclusion Genetic patterns at the contact zone are molded by drift and selection. Local effective sizes are reduced by the geography and history of the contact zone, B. balearicus populations being at the front wave of a recent expansion (late Pleistocene). Selection against hybrids likely results from intrinsic genomic causes (disruption of coadapted sets of genes in backcrosses and F2-hybrids), possibly reinforced by local adaptation (the ranges of the two taxa roughly coincide with the borders of semiarid and arid climates). The absence of F1 in the field might be due to premating isolation mechanisms. Our results, show that these lineages have evolved almost complete reproductive isolation after some 2.7 My of divergence, contrasting sharply with evidence from laboratory experiments that some anuran species may still produce viable F1 offspring after > 20 My of divergence.

Model d'adequació de l'hàbitat del llop a Catalunya

Des de l’any 2000 es té constància de la presencia del llop a Catalunya. Des de llavors, com a mínim 14 llops diferents han entrat i sortit del territori català, encara que cap d’ells s’ha assentat de manera permanent. L’estudi analitza l’entorn català utilitzant GIS, creant un model d’adequació de l’hàbitat tenint en compte les següents variables: la distància a la carretera més propera, la biomassa disponible a la zona, l’altitud i el tipus i tant per cent de recobriment. El model es basa en la informació obtinguda mitjançant la consulta a experts tant del llop com del territori català, així com en una recerca bibliogràfica sobre l’adequació de l’hàbitat del llop. L’enquesta que es dirigí als experts té en compte els valors que cada variable pot prendre dins l’àrea d’estudi, estableix rangs dels valors de cada variable i pregunta als experts com cada rang pot afectar a l’adequació de l’hàbitat pel llop. Els resultats mostren com bona part de la zona Nord de Catalunya té unes condicions adequades perquè el llop pugui arribar a reproduir-s’hi. Es desenvolupa també una anàlisi dels possibles punts de conflicte humà-llop i una superposició dels espais protegits amb les zones més adequades per l’establiment del llop.

Estimating national-level syringe availability to injecting drug users and injection coverage: Switzerland, 1996-2006.

BACKGROUND: Measuring syringe availability and coverage is essential in the assessment of HIV/AIDS risk reduction policies. Estimates of syringe availability and coverage were produced for the years 1996 and 2006, based on all relevant available national-level aggregated data from published sources. METHODS: We defined availability as the total monthly number of syringes provided by harm reduction system divided by the estimated number of injecting drug users (IDU), and defined coverage as the proportion of injections performed with a new syringe, at national level (total supply over total demand). Estimates of supply of syringes were derived from the national monitoring system, including needle and syringe programmes (NSP), pharmacies, and medically prescribed heroin programmes. Estimates of syringe demand were based on the number of injections performed by IDU derived from surveys of low threshold facilities for drug users (LTF) with NSP combined with the number of IDU. This number was estimated by two methods combining estimates of heroin users (multiple estimation method) and (a) the number of IDU in methadone treatment (MT) (non-injectors) or (b) the proportion of injectors amongst LTF attendees. Central estimates and ranges were obtained for availability and coverage. RESULTS: The estimated number of IDU decreased markedly according to both methods. The MT-based method (from 14,818 to 4809) showed a much greater decrease and smaller size of the IDU population compared to the LTF-based method (from 24,510 to 12,320). Availability and coverage estimates are higher with the MT-based method. For 1996, central estimates of syringe availability were 30.5 and 18.4 per IDU per month; for 2006, they were 76.5 and 29.9. There were 4 central estimates of coverage. For 1996 they ranged from 24.3% to 43.3%, and for 2006, from 50.5% to 134.3%. CONCLUSION: Although 2006 estimates overlap 1996 estimates, the results suggest a shift to improved syringe availability and coverage over time.

A case of suicide by ingestion of caffeine

Summary Intentional or unintentional caffeine abuse due to excessive intake of beverages or energy drinks containing caffeine is relatively frequent. However, death due to caffeine intoxication is rare and case reports of fatalities from caffeine toxicity are relatively infrequent. In this report, we describe an autopsy case involving a 31 year-old man who intentionally took a large amount of caffeine tablets in the form of a weight loss supplement as part of a suicide plan. Caffeine femoral blood concentration (170 mg/l) was within the toxic and potentially lethal ranges reported in the literature in similar cases. Postmortem biochemistry results suggested depressed glomerular filtration rate and prerenal failure at the time of death and failed to reveal myoglobinuria, glycosuria, ketonuria or ketonemia. Based on the absence of pathological findings at autopsy and the high blood caffeine level, death was attributed to acute caffeine toxicity. The case emphasizes the usefulness of performing exhaustive toxicology and searching for all potentially relevant information in order to formulate appropriate hypotheses concerning the cause and manner of death.

Fast docking using the CHARMM force field with EADock DSS.

The prediction of binding modes (BMs) occurring between a small molecule and a target protein of biological interest has become of great importance for drug development. The overwhelming diversity of needs leaves room for docking approaches addressing specific problems. Nowadays, the universe of docking software ranges from fast and user friendly programs to algorithmically flexible and accurate approaches. EADock2 is an example of the latter. Its multiobjective scoring function was designed around the CHARMM22 force field and the FACTS solvation model. However, the major drawback of such a software design lies in its computational cost. EADock dihedral space sampling (DSS) is built on the most efficient features of EADock2, namely its hybrid sampling engine and multiobjective scoring function. Its performance is equivalent to that of EADock2 for drug-like ligands, while the CPU time required has been reduced by several orders of magnitude. This huge improvement was achieved through a combination of several innovative features including an automatic bias of the sampling toward putative binding sites, and a very efficient tree-based DSS algorithm. When the top-scoring prediction is considered, 57% of BMs of a test set of 251 complexes were reproduced within 2 Å RMSD to the crystal structure. Up to 70% were reproduced when considering the five top scoring predictions. The success rate is lower in cross-docking assays but remains comparable with that of the latest version of AutoDock that accounts for the protein flexibility. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Comput Chem, 2011.

Subject-based steroid profiling and the determination of novel biomarkers for DHT and DHEA misuse in sports.

Doping with natural steroids can be detected by evaluating the urinary concentrations and ratios of several endogenous steroids. Since these biomarkers of steroid doping are known to present large inter-individual variations, monitoring of individual steroid profiles over time allows switching from population-based towards subject-based reference ranges for improved detection. In an Athlete Biological Passport (ABP), biomarkers data are collated throughout the athlete's sporting career and individual thresholds defined adaptively. For now, this approach has been validated on a limited number of markers of steroid doping, such as the testosterone (T) over epitestosterone (E) ratio to detect T misuse in athletes. Additional markers are required for other endogenous steroids like dihydrotestosterone (DHT) and dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA). By combining comprehensive steroid profiles composed of 24 steroid concentrations with Bayesian inference techniques for longitudinal profiling, a selection was made for the detection of DHT and DHEA misuse. The biomarkers found were rated according to relative response, parameter stability, discriminative power, and maximal detection time. This analysis revealed DHT/E, DHT/5β-androstane-3α,17β-diol and 5α-androstane-3α,17β-diol/5β-androstane-3α,17β-diol as best biomarkers for DHT administration and DHEA/E, 16α-hydroxydehydroepiandrosterone/E, 7β-hydroxydehydroepiandrosterone/E and 5β-androstane-3α,17β-diol/5α-androstane-3α,17β-diol for DHEA. The selected biomarkers were found suitable for individual referencing. A drastic overall increase in sensitivity was obtained. The use of multiple markers as formalized in an Athlete Steroidal Passport (ASP) can provide firm evidence of doping with endogenous steroids.

Generalized food-deceptive orchid species flower earlier and occur at lower altitudes than rewarding ones

Aims Food-deceptive pollination, in which plants do not offer any food reward to their pollinators, is common within the Orchidaceae. As food-deceptive orchids are poorer competitors for pollinator visitation than rewarding orchids, their occurrence in a given habitat may be more constrained than that of rewarding orchids. In particular, the success of deceptive orchids strongly relies on several biotic factors such as interactions with co-flowering rewarding species and pollinators, which may vary with altitude and over time. Our study compares generalized food-deceptive (i.e. excluding sexually deceptive) and rewarding orchids to test whether (i) deceptive orchids flower earlier compared to their rewarding counterparts and whether (ii) the relative occurrence of deceptive orchids decreases with increasing altitude. Methods To compare the flowering phenology of rewarding and deceptive orchids, we analysed data compiled from the literature at the species level over the occidental Palaearctic area. Since flowering phenology can be constrained by the latitudinal distribution of the species and by their phylogenetic relationships, we accounted for these factors in our analysis. To compare the altitudinal distribution of rewarding and deceptive orchids, we used field observations made over the entire Swiss territory and over two Swiss mountain ranges. Important Findings We found that deceptive orchid species start flowering earlier than rewarding orchids do, which is in accordance with the hypotheses of exploitation of naive pollinators and/or avoidance of competition with rewarding co-occurring species. Also, the relative frequency of deceptive orchids decreases with altitude, suggesting that deception may be less profitable at high compared to low altitude.

The radiation of the clownfishes has two geographical replicates

AimThe study of adaptive radiations provides an evolutionary perspective on the interactions between organisms and their environment, and is necessary to understand global biodiversity. Adaptive radiations can sometimes be replicated over several disjunct geographical entities, but most examples are found on island or in lakes. Here, we investigated the biogeographical history of the clownfishes, a clade of coral reef fish with ranges that now span most of the Indo-Pacific Ocean, in order to explore the geographical structure of an unusual adaptive radiation. LocationIndian Ocean, Indo-Australian Archipelago (IAA) and Central Pacific Ocean. MethodsWe generated DNA sequence data comprising seven nuclear markers for 27 of the 30 clownfish species. We then inferred a Bayesian phylogeny and reconstructed the biogeographical history of the group using three different methods. Finally, we applied a biogeographical model of diversification to assess whether diversification patterns differ between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. ResultsThe phylogenetic tree is highly supported and allows reconstruction of the biogeographical history of the clade. While most species arose in the IAA, one clade colonized the eastern shores of Africa and diversified there. We found that the diversification rate of clownfishes does not differ between the main radiation and the African clade. Main conclusionsThe clownfishes first appeared and diversified in the IAA. Following a colonization event, a geographically independent radiation occurred in the Indian Ocean off East Africa. This rare example of replicated adaptive radiation in the marine realm provides intriguing possibilities for further research on ecological speciation in the sea.

The suitability of steam exploded vitis vinifera and alkaline lignin for the manufacture of fiberboard

The main objective of this study was to explore the suitability of Vitis vinifera as a raw material and alkaline lignin as a natural binder for fiberboard manufacturing. In the first step, Vitis vinifera was steam- exploded through a thermo-mechanical vapor process in a batch reactor, and the obtained pulp was dried, ground, and pressed to produce the boards. The effects of pretreatment factors and pressing conditions on the chemical composition of the fibers and the physico-mechanical properties of binderless fiberboards were evaluated, and the conditions that optimize these properties were found. A response surface method based on a central composite design and multiple-response optimization was used. The variables studied and their respective variation ranges were: pretreatment temperature (Tr: 190-210ºC), pretreatment time (tr: 5-10 min), pressing temperature (Tp: 190-210ºC), pressing pressure (Pp: 8-16MPa), and pressing time (tp: 3-7min). The results of the optimization step show that binderless fiberboards have good water resistance and weaker mechanical properties. In the second step, fiberboards based on alkaline lignin and Vitis vinifera pulp produced at the optimal conditions determined for binderless fiberboards were prepared and their physico-mechanical properties were tested. Our results show that the addition of about 15% alkaline lignin leads to the production of fiberboards that fully meet the requirements of the relevant standard specifications

Small bowel bacterial overgrowth is found in 71% of IBS patients and associated symptoms respond well to Rifaximin in a phase IV trial

Background a nd A ims: The prevalence of small intestinal bowel bacterial o vergrowth (SIBO) i n patients w ith irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) ranges from 43% to 78% as determined by t he lactulose hydrogen breath (LHBT) t est. Although rifaximine, a non-absorbable antibiotic, h as b een able to decrease I BS s ymptoms i n placebo-controlled r andomized trials, these results were not repeated in phase IV studies. We aimed to assess the prevalence of SIBO in an IBS cohort and to evaluate the response to rifaximin. Methods: I BS p atients f ulfilled Rome III criteria, had an absence of alarm symptoms, n ormal f ecal c alproectin, and normal e ndoscopic workup. They underwent lactulose hydrogen breath t esting (LHBT) for SIBO diagnosis. P atients with SIBO were t reated w ith rifaximine tablets f or 14 d ays. Symptoms were a ssessed by q uestionnaires before rifaximin treatment and at week 6. Results: Hundred-fifty IBS patients were enrolled (76% female, mean age 44 ± 16 years), of whom 106 (71%) were diagnosed with SIBO and consequently treated with rifaximine. Rifaximine treatment s ignificantly reduced the following symptoms as assessed by t he s ymptom q uestionnaire: bloating (5.5 ± 2.6 before vs. 3 .6 ± 2.7 after treatment, p <0.001), flatulence (5 ± 2.7 vs. 4 ± 2.7, p = 0.015), diarrhea (2.9 ± 2.4 vs. 2 ± 2.4, p = 0.005), abdominal pain (4.8 ± 2.7 vs. 3.3 ± 2.5, p <0.001) and resulted in improved overall well-being (3.9 ± 2.4 vs. 2.7 ± 2.3, p <0.001). The LHBT was repeated 2-4 weeks after rifaximine treatment in 6 5/93 (70%) patients. Eradication of SIBO was documented in 85% of all patients (55/65). Conclusions: The results o f our phase IV trial i ndicate that a high proportion of IBS p atients t ested positive f or SIBO. I BS symptoms w ere significantly diminished following a 2-week treatment with rifaximine.

Severe traumatic brain injury in a high-income country: an epidemiological study.

This adult cohort determined the incidence and patients' short-term outcomes of severe traumatic brain injury (sTBI) in Switzerland and age-related differences. A prospective cohort study with a follow-up at 14 days was performed. Patients ≥16 years of age sustaining sTBI and admitted to 1 of 11 trauma centers were included. sTBI was defined by an Abbreviated Injury Scale of the head (HAIS) score >3. The centers participated from 6 months to 3 years. The results are presented as percentages, medians, and interquartile ranges (IQRs). Subgroup analyses were performed for patients ≤65 years (younger) and >65 (elderly). sTBI was observed in 921 patients (median age, 55 years; IQR, 33-71); 683 (74.2%) were male. Females were older (median age, 67 years; IQR, 42-80) than males (52; IQR, 31-67; p<0.00001). The estimated incidence was 10.58 per 100,000 inhabitants per year. Blunt trauma was observed in 879 patients (95.4%) and multiple trauma in 283 (30.7%). Median Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) on the scene was 9 (IQR 4-14; 8 in younger, 12 in elderly) and in emergency departments 5 (IQR, 3-14; 3 in younger, 8 in elderly). Trauma mechanisms included the following: 484 patients with falls (52.6%; younger, 242 patients [50.0%]; elderly, 242 [50.0%]), 291 with road traffic accidents (31.6%; younger, 237 patients [81.4%]; elderly, 54 [18.6%]), and 146 with others (15.8%). Mortality was 30.2% (24.5% in younger, 40.9% in elderly). Median GCS at 14 days was 15 (IQR, 14-15) without differences among subgroups. Estimated incidence of sTBI in Switzerland was low, age was high, and mortality considerable. The elderly had higher initial GCS and a higher death rate, but high GCS at 14 days.

Aalenian to Cenomanian Radiolaria of the Bermeja Complex (Puerto Rico) and Pacific origin of radiolarites on the Caribbean Plate

The study of the radiolarian ribbon chert is a key in determining the origins of associated Mesozoic oceanic terranes and may help to achieve a general agreement regarding the basic principles on the evolution of the Caribbean Plate. The Bermeja Complex of Puerto Rico, which contains serpentinized peridotite, altered basalt, amphibolite, and chert (Mariquita Chert Formation), is one of these crucial oceanic terranes. The radiolarian biochronology presented in this work is mainly based by correlation on the biozonations of Baumgartner et al. (1995) and O'Dogherty (1994) and indicates an early Middle Jurassic to early Late Cretaceous (late Bajocian-early Callovian to late early Albian-early middle Cenomanian) age. The illustrated assemblages contain about 120 species, of which one is new (Pantanellium karinae), and belonging to about 50 genera. A review of the previous radiolarian published works on the Mariquita Chert Formation and the results of this study suggest that this formation ranges in age from Middle Jurassic to early Late Cretaceous (late Aalenian to early-middle Cenomanian) and also reveal a possible feature of the Bermeja Complex, which is the younging of radiolarian cherts from north to south, evoking a polarity of accretion. On the basis of a currently exhaustive inventory of the radiolarite facies s.s. on the Caribbean Plate, a re-examination of the regional distribution of Middle Jurassic sediments associated with oceanic crust, and a paleoceanographic argumentation on the water currents, we come to the conclusion that the radiolarite and associated Mesozoic oceanic terranes of the Caribbean Plate are of Pacific origin. Eventually, a discussion on the origin of the cherts of the Mariquita Formation illustrated by Middle Jurassic to middle Cretaceous geodynamic models of the Pacific and Caribbean realms bring up the possibility that the rocks of the Bermeja Complex are remnants of two different oceans.

A comparison between joint coordinate system and attitude vector for multi-segment foot kinematics.

The joint angles of multi-segment foot models have been primarily described using two mathematical methods: the joint coordinate system and the attitude vector. This study aimed to determine whether the angles obtained through these two descriptors are comparable, and whether these descriptors have similar sensitivity to experimental errors. Six subjects walked eight times on an instrumented walkway while the joint angles among shank, hindfoot, medial forefoot, and lateral forefoot were measured. The angles obtained using both descriptors and their sensitivity to experimental errors were compared. There was no overall significant difference between the ranges of motion obtained using both descriptors. However, median differences of more than 6° were noticed for the medial-lateral forefoot joint. For all joints and rotation planes, both descriptors provided highly similar angle patterns (median correlation coefficient: R>0.90), except for the medial-lateral forefoot angle in the transverse plane (median R=0.77). The joint coordinate system was significantly more sensitive to anatomical landmarks misplacement errors. However, the absolute differences of sensitivity were small relative to the joints ranges of motion. In conclusion, the angles obtained using these two descriptors were not identical, but were similar for at least the shank-hindfoot and hindfoot-medial forefoot joints. Therefore, the angle comparison across descriptors is possible for these two joints. Comparison should be done more carefully for the medial-lateral forefoot joint. Moreover, despite different sensitivities to experimental errors, the effects of the experimental errors on the angles were small for both descriptors suggesting that both descriptors can be considered for multi-segment foot models.