Towards Bayesian experimental design for nonlinear models that require a large number of sampling times

The use of Bayesian methodologies for solving optimal experimental design problems has increased. Many of these methods have been found to be computationally intensive for design problems that require a large number of design points. A simulation-based approach that can be used to solve optimal design problems in which one is interested in finding a large number of (near) optimal design points for a small number of design variables is presented. The approach involves the use of lower dimensional parameterisations that consist of a few design variables, which generate multiple design points. Using this approach, one simply has to search over a few design variables, rather than searching over a large number of optimal design points, thus providing substantial computational savings. The methodologies are demonstrated on four applications, including the selection of sampling times for pharmacokinetic and heat transfer studies, and involve nonlinear models. Several Bayesian design criteria are also compared and contrasted, as well as several different lower dimensional parameterisation schemes for generating the many design points.

Mechanical properties of graphene : effects of layer number, temperature and isotope

Herein the mechanical properties of graphene, including Young’s modulus, fracture stress and fracture strain have been investigated by molecular dynamics simulations. The simulation results show that the mechanical properties of graphene are sensitive to the temperature changes but insensitive to the layer numbers in the multilayer graphene. Increasing temperature exerts adverse and significant effects on the mechanical properties of graphene. However, the adverse effect produced by the increasing layer number is marginal. On the other hand, isotope substitutions in graphene play a negligible role in modifying the mechanical properties of graphene.

Efficient solution of multiple cracks in great number using eigen COD boundary integral equations with iteration procedure

A newly developed computational approach is proposed in the paper for the analysis of multiple crack problems based on the eigen crack opening displacement (COD) boundary integral equations. The eigen COD particularly refers to a crack in an infinite domain under fictitious traction acting on the crack surface. With the concept of eigen COD, the multiple cracks in great number can be solved by using the conventional displacement discontinuity boundary integral equations in an iterative fashion with a small size of system matrix to determine all the unknown CODs step by step. To deal with the interactions among cracks for multiple crack problems, all cracks in the problem are divided into two groups, namely the adjacent group and the far-field group, according to the distance to the current crack in consideration. The adjacent group contains cracks with relatively small distances but strong effects to the current crack, while the others, the cracks of far-field group are composed of those with relatively large distances. Correspondingly, the eigen COD of the current crack is computed in two parts. The first part is computed by using the fictitious tractions of adjacent cracks via the local Eshelby matrix derived from the traction boundary integral equations in discretized form, while the second part is computed by using those of far-field cracks so that the high computational efficiency can be achieved in the proposed approach. The numerical results of the proposed approach are compared not only with those using the dual boundary integral equations (D-BIE) and the BIE with numerical Green's functions (NGF) but also with those of the analytical solutions in literature. The effectiveness and the efficiency of the proposed approach is verified. Numerical examples are provided for the stress intensity factors of cracks, up to several thousands in number, in both the finite and infinite plates.

Spatial variation of particle number concentration in school microscale environments and its impact on exposure assessment

It has not yet been established whether the spatial variation of particle number concentration (PNC) within a microscale environment can have an effect on exposure estimation results. In general, the degree of spatial variation within microscale environments remains unclear, since previous studies have only focused on spatial variation within macroscale environments. The aims of this study were to determine the spatial variation of PNC within microscale school environments, in order to assess the importance of the number of monitoring sites on exposure estimation. Furthermore, this paper aims to identify which parameters have the largest influence on spatial variation, as well as the relationship between those parameters and spatial variation. Air quality measurements were conducted for two consecutive weeks at each of the 25 schools across Brisbane, Australia. PNC was measured at three sites within the grounds of each school, along with the measurement of meteorological and several other air quality parameters. Traffic density was recorded for the busiest road adjacent to the school. Spatial variation at each school was quantified using coefficient of variation (CV). The portion of CV associated with instrument uncertainty was found to be 0.3 and therefore, CV was corrected so that only non-instrument uncertainty was analysed in the data. The median corrected CV (CVc) ranged from 0 to 0.35 across the schools, with 12 schools found to exhibit spatial variation. The study determined the number of required monitoring sites at schools with spatial variability and tested the deviation in exposure estimation arising from using only a single site. Nine schools required two measurement sites and three schools required three sites. Overall, the deviation in exposure estimation from using only one monitoring site was as much as one order of magnitude. The study also tested the association of spatial variation with wind speed/direction and traffic density, using partial correlation coefficients to identify sources of variation and non-parametric function estimation to quantify the level of variability. Traffic density and road to school wind direction were found to have a positive effect on CVc, and therefore, also on spatial variation. Wind speed was found to have a decreasing effect on spatial variation when it exceeded a threshold of 1.5 (m/s), while it had no effect below this threshold. Traffic density had a positive effect on spatial variation and its effect increased until it reached a density of 70 vehicles per five minutes, at which point its effect plateaued and did not increase further as a result of increasing traffic density.

Integrated genomic characterization of endometrial carcinoma

We performed an integrated genomic, transcriptomic and proteomic characterization of 373 endometrial carcinomas using array- and sequencing-based technologies. Uterine serous tumours and ∼25% of high-grade endometrioid tumours had extensive copy number alterations, few DNA methylation changes, low oestrogen receptor/progesterone receptor levels, and frequent TP53 mutations. Most endometrioid tumours had few copy number alterations or TP53 mutations, but frequent mutations in PTEN, CTNNB1, PIK3CA, ARID1A and KRAS and novel mutations in the SWI/SNF chromatin remodelling complex gene ARID5B. A subset of endometrioid tumours that we identified had a markedly increased transversion mutation frequency and newly identified hotspot mutations in POLE. Our results classified endometrial cancers into four categories: POLE ultramutated, microsatellite instability hypermutated, copy-number low, and copy-number high. Uterine serous carcinomas share genomic features with ovarian serous and basal-like breast carcinomas. We demonstrated that the genomic features of endometrial carcinomas permit a reclassification that may affect post-surgical adjuvant treatment for women with aggressive tumours.

Co-constructing decimal number knowledge

This mathematics education research provides significant insights for the teaching of decimals to children. It is well known that decimals is one of the most difficult topics to learn and teach. Annette’s research is unique in that it focuses not only on the cognitive, but also on the affective and conative aspects of learning and teaching of decimals. The study is innovative as it includes the students as co-constructors and co-researchers. The findings open new ways of thinking for educators about how students cognitively process decimal knowledge, as well as how students might develop a sense of self as a learner, teacher and researcher in mathematics.

Resequencing and fine-mapping of the chromosome 12q13-14 locus associated with multiple sclerosis refines the number of implicated genes

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a common chronic inflammatory disease of the central nervous system. Susceptibility to the disease is affected by both environmental and genetic factors. Genetic factors include haplotypes in the histocompatibility complex (MHC) and over 50 non-MHC loci reported by genome-wide association studies. Amongst these, we previously reported polymorphisms in chromosome 12q13-14 with a protective effect in individuals of European descent. This locus spans 288 kb and contains 17 genes, including several candidate genes which have potentially significant pathogenic and therapeutic implications. In this study, we aimed to fine-map this locus. We have implemented a two-phase study: a variant discovery phase where we have used next-generation sequencing and two target-enrichment strategies [long-range polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and Nimblegen's solution phase hybridization capture] in pools of 25 samples; and a genotyping phase where we genotyped 712 variants in 3577 healthy controls and 3269 MS patients. This study confirmed the association (rs2069502, P = 9.9 × 10−11, OR = 0.787) and narrowed down the locus of association to an 86.5 kb region. Although the study was unable to pinpoint the key-associated variant, we have identified a 42 (genotyped and imputed) single-nucleotide polymorphism haplotype block likely to harbour the causal variant. No evidence of association at previously reported low-frequency variants in CYP27B1 was observed. As part of the study we compared variant discovery performance using two target-enrichment strategies. We concluded that our pools enriched with Nimblegen's solution phase hybridization capture had better sensitivity to detect true variants than the pools enriched with long-range PCR, whilst specificity was better in the long-range PCR-enriched pools compared with solution phase hybridization capture enriched pools; this result has important implications for the design of future fine-mapping studies.

Spatio-temporal modelling of ultrafine particle number concentration

This thesis developed semi-parametric regression models for estimating the spatio-temporal distribution of outdoor airborne ultrafine particle number concentration (PNC). The models developed incorporate multivariate penalised splines and random walks and autoregressive errors in order to estimate non-linear functions of space, time and other covariates. The models were applied to data from the "Ultrafine Particles from Traffic Emissions and Child" project in Brisbane, Australia, and to longitudinal measurements of air quality in Helsinki, Finland. The spline and random walk aspects of the models reveal how the daily trend in PNC changes over the year in Helsinki and the similarities and differences in the daily and weekly trends across multiple primary schools in Brisbane. Midday peaks in PNC in Brisbane locations are attributed to new particle formation events at the Port of Brisbane and Brisbane Airport.

Mice selectively bred for High and Low fear behavior show differences in the number of pMAPK (p44/42 ERK) expressing neurons in lateral amygdala following Pavlovian fear conditioning

Individual variability in the acquisition, consolidation and extinction of conditioned fear potentially contributes to the development of fear pathology including posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Pavlovian fear conditioning is a key tool for the study of fundamental aspects of fear learning. Here, we used a selected mouse line of High and Low Pavlovian conditioned fear created from an advanced intercrossed line (AIL) in order to begin to identify the cellular basis of phenotypic divergence in Pavlovian fear conditioning. We investigated whether phosphorylated MAPK (p44/42 ERK/MAPK), a protein kinase required in the amygdala for the acquisition and consolidation of Pavlovian fear memory, is differentially expressed following Pavlovian fear learning in the High and Low fear lines. We found that following Pavlovian auditory fear conditioning, High and Low line mice differ in the number of pMAPK-expressing neurons in the dorsal sub nucleus of the lateral amygdala (LAd). In contrast, this difference was not detected in the ventral medial (LAvm) or ventral lateral (LAvl) amygdala sub nuclei or in control animals. We propose that this apparent increase in plasticity at a known locus of fear memory acquisition and consolidation relates to intrinsic differences between the two fear phenotypes. These data provide important insights into the micronetwork mechanisms encoding phenotypic differences in fear. Understanding the circuit level cellular and molecular mechanisms that underlie individual variability in fear learning is critical for the development of effective treatment of fear-related illnesses such as PTSD.

COX-derived prostanoid pathways in gastrointestinal cancer development and progression : novel targets for prevention and intervention

Arachidonic acid metabolism through cyclooxygenase (COX) pathways leads to the generation of biologically active eicosanoids. Eicosanoid expression levels vary during development and progression of gastrointestinal (GI) malignancies. COX-2 is the major COX-isoform responsible for G.I. cancer development/progression. COX-2 expression increases during progression from a normal to cancerous state. Evidence from observational studies has demonstrated that chronic NSAID use reduces the risk of cancer development, while both incidence and risk of death due to G.I. cancers were significantly reduced by daily aspirin intake. A number of randomized controlled trials (APC trial, Prevention of Sporadic Adenomatous Polyps trial, APPROVe trial) have also shown a significant protective effect in patients receiving selective COX-2 inhibitors. However, chronic use of selective COX-2 inhibitors at high doses was associated with increased cardiovascular risk, while NSAIDs have also been associated with increased risk. More recently, downstream effectors of COX-signaling have been investigated in cancer development/progression. PGE 2, which binds to both EP and PPAR receptors, is the major prostanoid implicated in the carcinogenesis of G.I. cancers. The role of TXA 2 in G.I. cancers has also been examined, although further studies are required to uncover its role in carcinogenesis. Other prostanoids investigated include PGD 2 and its metabolite 15d-PGJ2, PGF 1α and PGI 2. Targeting these prostanoids in G.I. cancers has the promise of avoiding cardiovascular toxicity associated with chronic selective COX-2 inhibition, while maintaining anti-tumor reactivity.A progressive sequence from normal to pre-malignant to a malignant state has been identified in G.I. cancers. In this review, we will discuss the role of the COX-derived prostanoids in G.I. cancer development and progression. Targeting these downstream prostanoids for chemoprevention and/or treatment of G.I. cancers will also be discussed. Finally, we will highlight the latest pre-clinical technologies as well as avenues for future investigation in this highly topical research field. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

The role of prostacyclin synthase and thromboxane synthase signaling in the development and progression of cancer

Prostacyclin synthase and thromboxane synthase signaling via arachidonic acid metabolism affects a number of tumor cell survival pathways such as cell proliferation, apoptosis, tumor cell invasion and metastasis, and angiogenesis. However, the effects of these respective synthases differ considerably with respect to the pathways described. While prostacyclin synthase is generally believed to be anti-tumor, a pro-carcinogenic role for thromboxane synthase has been demonstrated in a variety of cancers. The balance of oppositely-acting COX-derived prostanoids influences many processes throughout the body, such as blood pressure regulation, clotting, and inflammation. The PGI2/TXA2 ratio is of particular interest in-vivo, with the corresponding synthases shown to be differentially regulated in a variety of disease states. Pharmacological inhibition of thromboxane synthase has been shown to significantly inhibit tumor cell growth, invasion, metastasis and angiogenesis in a range of experimental models. In direct contrast, prostacyclin synthase overexpression has been shown to be chemopreventive in a murine model of the disease, suggesting that the expression and activity of this enzyme may protect against tumor development. In this review, we discuss the aberrant expression and known functions of both prostacyclin synthase and thromboxane synthase in cancer. We discuss the effects of these enzymes on a range of tumor cell survival pathways, such as tumor cell proliferation, induction of apoptosis, invasion and metastasis, and tumor cell angiogenesis. As downstream signaling pathways of these enzymes have also been implicated in cancer states, we examine the role of downstream effectors of PGIS and TXS activity in tumor growth and progression. Finally, we discuss current therapeutic strategies aimed at targeting these enzymes for the prevention/treatment of cancer. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gene expression analysis of diagnostic biopsies predicts pathological response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy of esophageal cancer

OBJECTIVE: This study explored gene expression differences in predicting response to chemoradiotherapy in esophageal cancer. PURPOSE:: A major pathological response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation is observed in about 40% of esophageal cancer patients and is associated with favorable outcomes. However, patients with tumors of similar histology, differentiation, and stage can have vastly different responses to the same neoadjuvant therapy. This dichotomy may be due to differences in the molecular genetic environment of the tumor cells. BACKGROUND DATA: Diagnostic biopsies were obtained from a training cohort of esophageal cancer patients (13), and extracted RNA was hybridized to genome expression microarrays. The resulting gene expression data was verified by qRT-PCR. In a larger, independent validation cohort (27), we examined differential gene expression by qRT-PCR. The ability of differentially-regulated genes to predict response to therapy was assessed in a multivariate leave-one-out cross-validation model. RESULTS: Although 411 genes were differentially expressed between normal and tumor tissue, only 103 genes were altered between responder and non-responder tumor; and 67 genes differentially expressed >2-fold. These included genes previously reported in esophageal cancer and a number of novel genes. In the validation cohort, 8 of 12 selected genes were significantly different between the response groups. In the predictive model, 5 of 8 genes could predict response to therapy with 95% accuracy in a subset (74%) of patients. CONCLUSIONS: This study has identified a gene microarray pattern and a set of genes associated with response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation in esophageal cancer. The potential of these genes as biomarkers of response to treatment warrants further investigation. Copyright © 2009 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Lipoxygenase metabolism : roles in tumor progression and survival

The metabolism of arachidonic acid through lipoxygenase pathways leads to the generation of various biologically active eicosanoids. The expression of these enzymes vary throughout the progression of various cancers, and thereby they have been shown to regulate aspects of tumor development. Substantial evidence supports a functional role for lipoxygenase-catalyzed arachidonic and linoleic acid metabolism in cancer development. Pharmacologic and natural inhibitors of lipoxygenases have been shown to suppress carcinogenesis and tumor growth in a number of experimental models. Signaling of hydro[peroxy]fatty acids following arachidonic or linoleic acid metabolism potentially effect diverse biological phenomenon regulating processes such as cell growth, cell survival, angiogenesis, cell invasion, metastatic potential and immunomodulation. However, the effects of distinct LOX isoforms differ considerably with respect to their effects on both the individual mechanisms described and the tumor being examined. 5-LOX and platelet type 12-LOX are generally considered pro-carcinogenic, with the role of 15-LOX-1 remaining controversial, while 15-LOX-2 suppresses carcinogenesis. In this review, we focus on the molecular mechanisms regulated by LOX metabolism in some of the major cancers. We discuss the effects of LOXs on tumor cell proliferation, their roles in cell cycle control and cell death induction, effects on angiogenesis, migration and the immune response, as well as the signal transduction pathways involved in these processes. Understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying the anti-tumor effect of specific, or general, LOX inhibitors may lead to the design of biologically and pharmacologically targeted therapeutic strategies inhibiting LOX isoforms and/or their biologically active metabolites, that may ultimately prove useful in the treatment of cancer, either alone or in combination with conventional therapies. © 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Differential pathologic variables and outcomes across the spectrum of adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction

Background Adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG) as described by Siewert et al. is classified as one entity in the latest (7th Edition) American Joint Cancer Committee/International Union Against Cancer (AJCC/UICC) manual, compared with the previous mix of esophageal and gastric staging systems. The origin of AEG tumors, esophageal or gastric, and their biology remain controversial, particularly for AEG type II (cardia) tumors. Methods We adapted a large prospective database (n = 520: 180 type I, 182 type II, 158 type III) to compare AEG tumors under the new TNM system Pathological variables associated with prognosis were compared (pT, pN, stage, differentiation, R status, lymphovascular invasion, perineural involvement, number of positive nodes, percent of positive nodes, and tumor length), as well as overall survival. Results Compared with AEG type I tumors, type II and type III tumors had significantly (p\0.05) more advanced pN stages, greater number and percentage of positive nodes, poorer differentiation, more radial margin involvement, and more perineural invasion. In AEG type I, 14/180 patients (8%) had[6 involved nodes (pN3), compared with 16 and 30% of patients classified type II and III, respectively. Median survival was significantly (p = 0.03) improved for type I patients (38 months) compared with those with tumors classified as type II (28 months) and type III (24 months). In multivariate analysis node positivity and pN staging but not AEG site had an impact on survival. Conclusions In this series AEG type I is associated with more favorable pathologic features and improved outcomes compared with AEG type II and III. This may reflect earlier diagnosis, but an alternative possibility, that type I may be a unique paradigm with more favorable biology, requires further study. © Société Internationale de Chirurgie 2010.

The Number Crunch game : a simple vehicle for building algebraic reasoning skills

A newspaper numbers game based on simple arithmetic relationships is discussed. Its potential to give students of elementary algebra practice in semi-ad hoc reasoning and to build general arithmetic reasoning skills is explored.