Measuring transit service reliability using data from web-based transit user survey : a case study at Brisbane, Australia

This paper reports an empirical study on measuring transit service reliability using the data from a Web-based passenger survey on a major transit corridor in Brisbane, Australia. After an introduction of transit service reliability measures, the paper presents the results from the case study including study area, data collection, and reliability measures obtained. This includes data exploration of boarding/arrival lateness, in-vehicle time variation, waiting time variation, and headway adherence. Impacts of peak-period effects and separate operation on service reliability are examined. Relationships between transit service characteristics and passenger waiting time are also discussed. A summary of key findings and an agenda of future research are offered in conclusions.

Controlling chaos? The value and the challenges of applying complexity theory to project management

The literature abounds with descriptions of failures in high-profile projects and a range of initiatives has been generated to enhance project management practice (e.g., Morris, 2006). Estimating from our own research, there are scores of other project failures that are unrecorded. Many of these failures can be explained using existing project management theory; poor risk management, inaccurate estimating, cultures of optimism dominating decision making, stakeholder mismanagement, inadequate timeframes, and so on. Nevertheless, in spite of extensive discussion and analysis of failures and attention to the presumed causes of failure, projects continue to fail in unexpected ways. In the 1990s, three U.S. state departments of motor vehicles (DMV) cancelled major projects due to time and cost overruns and inability to meet project goals (IT-Cortex, 2010). The California DMV failed to revitalize their drivers’ license and registration application process after spending $45 million. The Oregon DMV cancelled their five year, $50 million project to automate their manual, paper-based operation after three years when the estimates grew to $123 million; its duration stretched to eight years or more and the prototype was a complete failure. In 1997, the Washington state DMV cancelled their license application mitigation project because it would have been too big and obsolete by the time it was estimated to be finished. There are countless similar examples of projects that have been abandoned or that have not delivered the requirements.

Critical gap estimation by numerical and statistical highest likelihood search

Many traffic situations require drivers to cross or merge into a stream having higher priority. Gap acceptance theory enables us to model such processes to analyse traffic operation. This discussion demonstrated that numerical search fine tuned by statistical analysis can be used to determine the most likely critical gap for a sample of drivers, based on their largest rejected gap and accepted gap. This method shares some common features with the Maximum Likelihood Estimation technique (Troutbeck 1992) but lends itself well to contemporary analysis tools such as spreadsheet and is particularly analytically transparent. This method is considered not to bias estimation of critical gap due to very small rejected gaps or very large rejected gaps. However, it requires a sufficiently large sample that there is reasonable representation of largest rejected gap/accepted gap pairs within a fairly narrow highest likelihood search band.

Empirical evaluation of an autonomous vehicle in an urban environment

Operation in urban environments creates unique challenges for research in autonomous ground vehicles. Due to the presence of tall trees and buildings in close proximity to traversable areas, GPS outage is likely to be frequent and physical hazards pose real threats to autonomous systems. In this paper, we describe a novel autonomous platform developed by the Sydney-Berkeley Driving Team for entry into the 2007 DARPA Urban Challenge competition. We report empirical results analyzing the performance of the vehicle while navigating a 560-meter test loop multiple times in an actual urban setting with severe GPS outage. We show that our system is robust against failure of global position estimates and can reliably traverse standard two-lane road networks using vision for localization. Finally, we discuss ongoing efforts in fusing vision data with other sensing modalities.

A hardware-based multi-disciplinary design optimization method for aeronautical applications

There are many applications in aeronautics where there exist strong couplings between disciplines. One practical example is within the context of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV) automation where there exists strong coupling between operation constraints, aerodynamics, vehicle dynamics, mission and path planning. UAV path planning can be done either online or offline. The current state of path planning optimisation online UAVs with high performance computation is not at the same level as its ground-based offline optimizer's counterpart, this is mainly due to the volume, power and weight limitations on the UAV; some small UAVs do not have the computational power needed for some optimisation and path planning task. In this paper, we describe an optimisation method which can be applied to Multi-disciplinary Design Optimisation problems and UAV path planning problems. Hardware-based design optimisation techniques are used. The power and physical limitations of UAV, which may not be a problem in PC-based solutions, can be approached by utilizing a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) as an algorithm accelerator. The inevitable latency produced by the iterative process of an Evolutionary Algorithm (EA) is concealed by exploiting the parallelism component within the dataflow paradigm of the EA on an FPGA architecture. Results compare software PC-based solutions and the hardware-based solutions for benchmark mathematical problems as well as a simple real world engineering problem. Results also indicate the practicality of the method which can be used for more complex single and multi objective coupled problems in aeronautical applications.

Gonadotropin-induced ovarian cancer cell migration and proliferation require extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1/2 activation regulated by calcium and protein kinase Cδ

The gonadotropin hypothesis proposes that elevated serum gonadotropin levels may increase the risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). We have studied the effect of treating EOC cell lines (OV207 and OVCAR-3) with FSH or LH. Both gonadotropins activated the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK)/extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1/2 (ERK1/2) pathway and increased cell migration that was inhibited by the MAPK 1 inhibitor PD98059. Both extra- and intracellular calcium ion signalling were implicated in gonadotropin-induced ERK1/2 activation as treatment with either the calcium chelator EGTA or an inhibitor of intracellular calcium release, dantrolene, inhibited gonadotropin-induced ERK1/2 activation. Verapamil was also inhibitory, indicating that gonadotropins activate calcium influx via L-type voltage-dependent calcium channels. The cAMP/protein kinase A (PKA) pathway was not involved in the mediation of gonadotropin action in these cells as gonadotropins did not increase intracellular cAMP formation and inhibition of PKA did not affect gonadotropin-induced phosphorylation of ERK1/2. Activation of ERK1/2 was inhibited by the protein kinase C (PKC) inhibitor GF 109203X as well as by the PKCδ inhibitor rottlerin, and downregulation of PKCδ was inhibited by small interfering RNA (siRNA), highlighting the importance of PKCδ in the gonadotropin signalling cascade. Furthermore, in addition to inhibition by PD98059, gonadotropin-induced ovarian cancer cell migration was also inhibited by verapamil, GF 109203X and rottlerin. Similarly, gonadotropin-induced proliferation was inhibited by PD98059, verapamil, GF 109203X and PKCδ siRNA. Taken together, these results demonstrate that gonadotropins induce both ovarian cancer cell migration and proliferation by activation of ERK1/2 signalling in a calcium- and PKCδ-dependent manner.

Data preprocessing for anomaly based network intrusion detection : a review

Data preprocessing is widely recognized as an important stage in anomaly detection. This paper reviews the data preprocessing techniques used by anomaly-based network intrusion detection systems (NIDS), concentrating on which aspects of the network traffic are analyzed, and what feature construction and selection methods have been used. Motivation for the paper comes from the large impact data preprocessing has on the accuracy and capability of anomaly-based NIDS. The review finds that many NIDS limit their view of network traffic to the TCP/IP packet headers. Time-based statistics can be derived from these headers to detect network scans, network worm behavior, and denial of service attacks. A number of other NIDS perform deeper inspection of request packets to detect attacks against network services and network applications. More recent approaches analyze full service responses to detect attacks targeting clients. The review covers a wide range of NIDS, highlighting which classes of attack are detectable by each of these approaches. Data preprocessing is found to predominantly rely on expert domain knowledge for identifying the most relevant parts of network traffic and for constructing the initial candidate set of traffic features. On the other hand, automated methods have been widely used for feature extraction to reduce data dimensionality, and feature selection to find the most relevant subset of features from this candidate set. The review shows a trend toward deeper packet inspection to construct more relevant features through targeted content parsing. These context sensitive features are required to detect current attacks.

Systemic inflammatory responses to maximal versus submaximal lengthening contractions of the elbow flexors

We compared changes in markers of muscle damage and systemic inflammation after submaximal and maximal lengthening muscle contractions of the elbow flexors. Using a cross-over design, 10 healthy young men not involved in resistance training completed a submaximal trial (10 sets of 60 lengthening contractions at 10% maximum isometric strength, 1 min rest between sets), followed by a maximal trial (10 sets of three lengthening contractions at 100% maximum isometric strength, 3 min rest between sets). Lengthening contractions were performed on an isokinetic dynamometer. Opposite arms were used for the submaximal and maximal trials, and the trials were separated by a minimum of two weeks. Blood was sampled before, immediately after, 1 h, 3 h, and 1-4 d after each trial. Total leukocyte and neutrophil numbers, and the serum concentration of soluble tumor necrosis factor-alpha receptor 1 were elevated after both trials (P < 0.01), but there were no differences between the trials. Serum IL-6 concentration was elevated 3 h after the submaximal contractions (P < 0.01). The concentrations of serum tumor necrosis factor-alpha, IL-1 receptor antagonist, IL-10, granulocyte-colony stimulating factor and plasma C-reactive protein remained unchanged following both trials. Maximum isometric strength and range of motion decreased significantly (P < 0.001) after both trials, and were lower from 1-4 days after the maximal contractions compared to the submaximal contractions. Plasma myoglobin concentration and creatine kinase activity, muscle soreness and upper arm circumference all increased after both trials (P < 0.01), but were not significantly different between the trials. Therefore, there were no differences in markers of systemic inflammation, despite evidence of greater muscle damage following maximal versus submaximal lengthening contractions of the elbow flexors.