Machine learning analysis and modeling of interest rate curves

The present research deals with the review of the analysis and modeling of Swiss franc interest rate curves (IRC) by using unsupervised (SOM, Gaussian Mixtures) and supervised machine (MLP) learning algorithms. IRC are considered as objects embedded into different feature spaces: maturities; maturity-date, parameters of Nelson-Siegel model (NSM). Analysis of NSM parameters and their temporal and clustering structures helps to understand the relevance of model and its potential use for the forecasting. Mapping of IRC in a maturity-date feature space is presented and analyzed for the visualization and forecasting purposes.

Fast low-specific absorption rate B0 -mapping along projections at high field using two-dimensional radiofrequency pulses.

PURPOSE: At 7 Tesla (T), conventional static field (B0 ) projection mapping techniques, e.g., FASTMAP, FASTESTMAP, lead to elevated specific absorption rates (SAR), requiring longer total acquisition times (TA). In this work, the series of adiabatic pulses needed for slab selection in FASTMAP is replaced by a single two-dimensional radiofrequency (2D-RF) pulse to minimize TA while ensuring equal shimming performance. METHODS: Spiral gradients and 2D-RF pulses were designed to excite thin slabs in the small tip angle regime. The corresponding selection profile was characterized in phantoms and in vivo. After optimization of the shimming protocol, the spectral linewidths obtained after 2D localized shimming were compared with conventional techniques and published values from (Emir et al NMR Biomed 2012;25:152-160) in six different brain regions. RESULTS: Results on healthy volunteers show no significant difference (P > 0.5) between the spectroscopic linewidths obtained with the adiabatic (TA = 4 min) and the new low-SAR and time-efficient FASTMAP sequence (TA = 42 s). The SAR can be reduced by three orders of magnitude and TA accelerated six times without impact on the shimming performances or quality of the resulting spectra. CONCLUSION: Multidimensional pulses can be used to minimize the RF energy and time spent for automated shimming using projection mapping at high field. Magn Reson Med, 2014. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Human papilloma virus type and recurrence rate after surgical clearance of anal condylomata acuminata.

BACKGROUND: Anal condylomata acuminata (ACA) are caused by human papilloma virus (HPV) infection which is transmitted by close physical and sexual contact. The result of surgical treatment of ACA has an overall success rate of 71% to 93%, with a recurrence rate between 4% and 29%. The aim of this study was to assess a possible association between HPV type and ACA recurrence after surgical treatment. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of 140 consecutive patients who underwent surgery for ACA from January 1990 to December 2005 at our tertiary University Hospital. We confirmed ACA by histopathological analysis and determined the HPV typing using the polymerase chain reaction. Patients gave consent for HPV testing and completed a questionnaire. We looked at the association of ACA, HPV typing, and HIV disease. We used chi, the Monte Carlo simulation, and Wilcoxon tests for statistical analysis. RESULTS: Among the 140 patients (123 M/17 F), HPV 6 and 11 were the most frequently encountered viruses (51% and 28%, respectively). Recurrence occurred in 35 (25%) patients. HPV 11 was present in 19 (41%) of these recurrences, which is statistically significant, when compared with other HPVs. There was no significant difference between recurrence rates in the 33 (24%) HIV-positive and the HIV-negative patients. CONCLUSIONS: HPV 11 is associated with higher recurrence rate of ACA. This makes routine clinical HPV typing questionable. Follow-up is required to identify recurrence and to treat it early, especially if HPV 11 has been identified.

Effect of low-dose chest irradiation before chemotherapy on the rate of local failure in small-cell lung cancer.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the rate of tumor recurrence within the irradiated volume after initial low-dose irradiation of limited-stage small-cell lung cancer (SCLC), to assess the tolerance of a sequential combination of low-dose chest irradiation followed by chemotherapy, and to confirm the responsiveness of limited-stage SCLC to low-dose irradiation. METHODS AND MATERIALS: In this pilot study, 26 patients with limited-stage SCLC were treated by first-line 20-Gy thoracic irradiation followed 3 weeks later by chemotherapy (cisplatin, doxorubicin, and etoposide for six cycles). RESULTS: We present our final results with a median follow-up of surviving patients of 7 years. The response rate to this low-dose irradiation was 83%, with an overall response rate to radiochemotherapy of 96% and a median survival of 21 months. No unexpected early or late toxicity was observed. The rate of initial isolated local failure was 8%, which compares favorably with other published series using higher doses of radiochemotherapy. CONCLUSION: An initial chest irradiation of 20 Gy before chemotherapy could be sufficient to reduce the risk of local failure during the time of survival of patients with limited-stage SCLC. Potential advantages of this treatment may be the prevention of resistance mechanisms to radiotherapy induced by preliminary chemotherapy and a reduced radiation-induced toxicity.

Prevalence rate and reasons for refusals of influenza vaccine in the elderly

RESUME Peu d'informations sont disponibles concernant la prévalence et les motifs de refus de la vaccination contre la grippe dans la population âgée. Le but de notre recherche était d'investiguer les vrais motifs de refus de la vaccination (c'est-à-dire pas uniquement les raisons de non-vaccination parfois indépendantes du patient lui- même) chez les personnes âgées. Tous les patients ambulatoires de plus de 65 ans consultant la Policlinique Médicale Universitaire (PMU) de Lausanne ou leur médecin traitant durant les périodes de vaccination contre la grippe 1999-2000 et 2000-2001 ont été inclus. Chaque patient recevait une information sur la grippe et ses complications, de même que sur la nécessité de la vaccination, son efficacité et ses effets seconda ires éventuels. En l'absence de contre-indication, la vaccination était proposée. En cas de refus, les motifs étaient investigués par une question ouverte. Sur 1398 sujets inclus, 148 (12%) ont refusé la vaccination. Les raisons principales de refus étaient la perception d'être en bonne santé (16%), de ne pas être susceptible à la grippe (15%) ou le fait de ne jamais avoir été vacciné contre la grippe dans le passé (15%). On retrouvait également la mauvaise expérience personnelle ou d'un proche lors d'une vaccination (15%) et l'impression d'inutilité du vaccin (10%). 17% des personnes interrogées ont donné des motifs autres et 12% n'ont pas explicité leur non-acceptation. Les refus de vaccination contre la grippe dans la population âgée sont essentiellement liés aux convictions intimes du patient quant à son état de santé et à sa susceptibilité à la grippe, de même qu'à l'efficacité supposée de la vaccination. La résistance au changement semble être un obstacle majeur à l'introduction de la vaccination chez les personnes de plus de 65 ans. SUMMARY More knowledge on the reasons for refusal of the influenza vaccine in elderly patients is essential to target groups for additional information, and hence improve coverage rate. The objective of the present study was to describe precisely the true motives for refusal. All patients aged over 64 who attended the Medical Outpatient Clinic, University of Lausanne, or their private practitioner's office during the 1999 and 2000 vaccination periods were included. Each patient was informed on influenza and its complications, as well as on the need for vaccination, its efficacy and adverse events. The vaccination was then proposed. In case of refusal, the reasons were investigated with an open question. Out of 1398 patients, 148 (12%) refused the vaccination. The main reasons for refusal were the perception of being in good health (16%), of not being susceptible to influenza (15%), of not having had the influenza vaccine in the past (15%), of having had a bad experience either personally or a relative (15%), and the uselessness of the vaccine (10%). Seventeen percent gave miscellaneous reasons and 12% no reason at all for refusal. Little epidemiological knowledge and resistance to change appear to be the major obstacles for wide acceptance of the vaccine by the elderly.

Clinical growth rate of acoustic schwannomas: correlation with the growth fraction as defined by the monoclonal antibody ki-67.

The growth rate of acoustic tumors, although slow, varies widely. There may be a continuous spectrum or distinct groups of tumor growth rates. Clinical, audiologic, and conventional histologic tests have failed to shed any light on this problem. Modern immunohistochemical methods may stand a better chance. The Ki-67 monoclonal antibody stains proliferating cells and is used in this study to investigate the growth fraction of 13 skull base schwannomas. The acoustic tumors can be divided into two different growth groups, one with a rate five times the other. The literature is reviewed to see if this differentiation is borne out by the radiologic studies. Distinct growth rates have been reported: one very slow, taking 50 years to reach 1 cm in diameter, a second rate with a diameter increase of 0.2 cm/year, and a third rate five times the second, with a 1.0 cm increase in diameter per year. A fourth group growing at 2.5 cm/year is postulated, but these tumors cannot be followed for long radiologically, since symptoms demand surgical intervention. The clinical implications of these separate growth rates are discussed.

Treatment of genital mycoplasma in colonized pregnant women in late pregnancy is associated with a lower rate of premature labour and neonatal complications.

Mycoplasma hominis and Ureaplasma spp. may colonize the human genital tract and have been associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes such as preterm labour and preterm premature rupture of membranes. However, as these bacteria can reside in the normal vaginal flora, there are controversies regarding their true role during pregnancy and so the need to treat these organisms. We therefore conducted a retrospective analysis to evaluate the treatment of genital mycoplasma in 5377 pregnant patients showing symptoms of potential obstetric complications at 25-37 weeks of gestation. Women presenting with symptoms were routinely screened by culture for the presence of these bacteria and treated with clindamycin when positive. Compared with uninfected untreated patients, women treated for genital mycoplasma demonstrated lower rates of premature labour. Indeed preterm birth rates were, respectively, 40.9% and 37.7% in women colonized with Ureaplasma spp. and M. hominis, compared with 44.1% in uncolonized women (Ureaplasma spp., p 0.024; M. hominis, p 0.001). Moreover, a reduction of neonatal complications rates was observed, with 10.9% of newborns developing respiratory diseases in case of Ureaplasma spp. colonization and 5.9% in the presence of M. hominis, compared with 12.8% in the absence of those bacteria (Ureaplasma spp., p 0.050; M. hominis, p <0.001). Microbiological screening of Ureaplasma spp. and/or M. hominis and pre-emptive antibiotic therapy of symptomatic pregnant women in late pregnancy might represent a beneficial strategy to reduce premature labour and neonatal complications.

Diallel analysis for grain yield and mineral absorption rate of soybeans grown in acid brazilian savannah soil

High available aluminium and low levels of calcium below the ploughed zone of the soil are limiting factors for agricultural sustainability in the Brazilian Cerrados (Savannahs). The mineral stresses compound with dry spells effect by preventing deep root growth of cultivated plants and causes yield instability. The mode of inheritance for grain yield and mineral absorption ratio of a diallel cross in soybeans [Glycine max (L.) Merrill] grown in high and low Al areas was identified. Differences among the genotypes for grain yield were more evident in the high Al, by grouping tolerant and non-tolerant genotypes for their respective arrays in the hybrids. A large proportion of genetic variance was additive for grain yield and mineral absorption ratio in both environments. High heritability values suggest that soybeans can be improved by crosses among Al-tolerant genotypes, using modified pedigree, early generation and recurrent selection schemes.

Deficit in memory consolidation (abnormal forgetting rate) in childhood temporal lobe epilepsy. Pre and postoperative long-term observation.

Deficits in memory consolidation have been reported in adult patients with epilepsy but, not to our knowledge, in children. We report the long-term follow-up (9 y. o. to 18 y. o.) of a boy who suffered from temporal lobe epilepsy and underwent a left temporal lobectomy with amygdalo-hippocampal resection at the age of 10. He showed an abnormal forgetting rate when trying to encode new information and a significant deficit for retrieving remote episodic memories (when compared with his twin brother), both consistent with a consolidation disorder. His memory condition slightly improved after cessation of the epilepsy, nevertheless did not normalize. No standard memory assessment could pinpoint his memory problem, hence an adapted methodology was needed. We discuss the nature of the memory deficit, its possible causes and its clinical implications.

Spatial pattern and process at the plant neighbourhood scale: insights from communities dominated by the clonal grass Elymus repens (L.) Gould.

Question: How do clonal traits of a locally dominant grass (Elymus repens (L.) Gould.) respond to soil heterogeneity and shape spatial patterns of its tillers? How do tiller spatial patterns constrain seedling recruitment within the community?Locations: Artificial banks of the River Rhone, France.Material and Methods: We examined 45 vegetation patches dominated by Elymus repens. During a first phase we tested relationships between soil variables and three clonal traits (spacer length, number of clumping tillers and branching rate), and between the same clonal traits and spatial patterns (i.e. density and degree of spatial aggregation) of tillers at a very fine scale. During a second phase, we performed a sowing experiment to investigate effects of density and spatial patterns of E. repens on recruitment of eight species selected from the regional species pool.Results: Clonal traits had clear effects - especially spacer length - on densification and aggregation of E. repens tillers and, at the same time, a clear response of these same clonal traits as soil granulometry changed. The density and degree of aggregation of E. repens tillers was positively correlated to total seedling cover and diversity at the finest spatial scales.Conclusions: Spatial patterning of a dominant perennial grass responds to soil heterogeneity through modifications of its clonal morphology as a trade-off between phalanx and guerrilla forms. In turn, spatial patterns have strong effects on abundance and diversity of seedlings. Spatial patterns of tillers most probably led to formation of endogenous gaps in which the recruitment of new plant individuals was enhanced. Interestingly, we also observed more idiosyncratic effects of tiller spatial patterns on seedling cover and diversity when focusing on different growth forms of the sown species.

Molecular substitution rate increases in myrmecophilous lycaenid butterflies (Lepidoptera)

Is species diversification driven by neutral- or niche-based processes? Butterflies of the Lycaenidae family have developed mutualistic interactions with ants. This biotic requirement increased the spatial fragmentation of populations of lower effective population size (Ne) compared with autonomous species. The nearly neutral theory predicts that species with smaller Ne should fix more mutations because of the increased strength of drift. Taking into account the phylogenetic relatedness among species, this study shows that species with a stronger dependence on ants displayed more intra-specific Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms compared with species with low or no myrmecophily. This phenomenon can cause more pronounced genetic differentiation between populations and could ultimately promote speciation in a similar manner as on physical islands. The large species diversity observed in this family could be the consequence of this neutral process enhancing the diversification of lineages.

The circadian rhythm of the perinatal mortality rate in Switzerland.

The authors examine the relation between the perinatal mortality rate (PMR), birth weight in four categories, and hour of birth throughout the week in Switzerland, using data on 672,013 births and 5,764 perinatal deaths recorded between 1979 and 1987. From Monday to Friday, the PMR follows a circadian rhythm with a regular increase from early morning to evening, with a peak for babies born between 7 and 8 p.m. This pattern of variation has two main components: The circadian rhythms for the proportion of births in the four weight categories and the PMR circadian rhythm for babies weighing more than 2.5 kg. According to a cosinor model, which describes about 40% of the total variation in the PMR, the most important determinants are changes in the proportions of births: Low birth weight increases toward the afternoon and night. Mechanisms underlying the weight-specific timing of birth are discussed, including time selection of birth according to obstetric risks, the direct effect of neonatal and obstetric care, and chronobiologic behavior.

Biomedical risk assessment as an aid for smoking cessation.

BACKGROUND: A possible strategy for increasing smoking cessation rates could be to provide smokers who have contact with healthcare systems with feedback on the biomedical or potential future effects of smoking, e.g. measurement of exhaled carbon monoxide (CO), lung function, or genetic susceptibility to lung cancer. OBJECTIVES: To determine the efficacy of biomedical risk assessment provided in addition to various levels of counselling, as a contributing aid to smoking cessation. SEARCH METHODS: For the most recent update, we searched the Cochrane Collaboration Tobacco Addiction Group Specialized Register in July 2012 for studies added since the last update in 2009. SELECTION CRITERIA: Inclusion criteria were: a randomized controlled trial design; subjects participating in smoking cessation interventions; interventions based on a biomedical test to increase motivation to quit; control groups receiving all other components of intervention; an outcome of smoking cessation rate at least six months after the start of the intervention. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two assessors independently conducted data extraction on each paper, with disagreements resolved by consensus. Results were expressed as a relative risk (RR) for smoking cessation with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Where appropriate, a pooled effect was estimated using a Mantel-Haenszel fixed-effect method. MAIN RESULTS: We included 15 trials using a variety of biomedical tests. Two pairs of trials had sufficiently similar recruitment, setting and interventions to calculate a pooled effect; there was no evidence that carbon monoxide (CO) measurement in primary care (RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.32) or spirometry in primary care (RR 1.18, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.81) increased cessation rates. We did not pool the other 11 trials due to the presence of substantial clinical heterogeneity. Of the remaining 11 trials, two trials detected statistically significant benefits: one trial in primary care detected a significant benefit of lung age feedback after spirometry (RR 2.12, 95% CI 1.24 to 3.62) and one trial that used ultrasonography of carotid and femoral arteries and photographs of plaques detected a benefit (RR 2.77, 95% CI 1.04 to 7.41) but enrolled a population of light smokers and was judged to be at unclear risk of bias in two domains. Nine further trials did not detect significant effects. One of these tested CO feedback alone and CO combined with genetic susceptibility as two different interventions; none of the three possible comparisons detected significant effects. One trial used CO measurement, one used ultrasonography of carotid arteries and two tested for genetic markers. The four remaining trials used a combination of CO and spirometry feedback in different settings. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is little evidence about the effects of most types of biomedical tests for risk assessment on smoking cessation. Of the fifteen included studies, only two detected a significant effect of the intervention. Spirometry combined with an interpretation of the results in terms of 'lung age' had a significant effect in a single good quality trial but the evidence is not optimal. A trial of carotid plaque screening using ultrasound also detected a significant effect, but a second larger study of a similar feedback mechanism did not detect evidence of an effect. Only two pairs of studies were similar enough in terms of recruitment, setting, and intervention to allow meta-analyses; neither of these found evidence of an effect. Mixed quality evidence does not support the hypothesis that other types of biomedical risk assessment increase smoking cessation in comparison to standard treatment. There is insufficient evidence with which to evaluate the hypothesis that multiple types of assessment are more effective than single forms of assessment.

Effects of prior repeated-sprints with different recovery duration on oxygen uptake kinetics during subsequent heavy-exercise

Introduction: Prior repeated-sprints (6) has become an interesting method to resolve the debate surrounding the principal factors that limits the oxygen uptake (V'O2) kinetics at the onset of exercise [i.e., muscle O2 delivery (5) or metabolic inertia (3)]. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of two repeated-sprints sets of 6x6s separated by different recovery duration between the sprints on V'O2 and muscular de-oxygenation [HHb] kinetics during a subsequent heavy-intensity exercise. Methods: 10 male subjects performed a 6-min constant-load cycling test (T50) at intensity corresponding to half of the difference between V'O2max and the ventilatory threshold. Then, they performed two repeated-sprints sets of 6x6s all-out separated by different recovery duration between the sprints (S1:30s and S2:3min) followed, after 7-min-recovery, by the T50 (S1T50 and S2T50, respectively). V'O2, [HHb] of the vastus lateralis (VL) and surface electromyography activity [i.e., root-mean-square (RMS) and the median frequency of the power density spectrum (MDF)] from VL and vastus medialis (VM) were recorded throughout T50. Models using a bi-exponential function for the overall T50 and a mono-exponential for the first 90s of T50 were used to define V'O2 and [HHb] kinetics respectively. Results: V'O2 mean value was higher in S1 (2.9±0.3l.min-1) than in S2 (1.2±0.3l.min-1); (p<0.001). The peripheral blood flow was increased after sprints as attested by a higher basal heart rate (HRbaseline) (S1T50: +22%; S2T50: +17%; p≤0.008). Time delay [HHb] was shorter for S1T50 and S2T50 than for T50 (-22% for both; p≤0.007) whereas the mean response time of V'O2 was accelerated only after S1 (S1T50: 32.3±2.5s; S2T50: 34.4±2.6s; T50: 35.7±5.4s; p=0.031). There were no significant differences in RMS between the three conditions (p>0.05). MDF of VM was higher during the first 3-min in S1T50 than in T50 (+6%; p≤0.05). Conclusion: The study show that V'O2 kinetics was speeded by prior repeated-sprints with a short (30s) but not a long (3min) inter-sprints-recovery even though the [HHb] kinetics was accelerated and the peripheral blood flow was enhanced after both sprints. S1, inducing a greater PCr depletion (1) and change in the pattern of the fibres recruitment (increase in MDF) compared with S2, may decrease metabolic inertia (2), stimulate the oxidative phosphorylation activation (4) and accelerate V'O2 kinetics at the beginning of the subsequent high-intensity exercise.