Economic growth with bubbles

We develop a stylized model of economic growth with bubbles. In this model, changes in investorsentiment lead to the appearance and collapse of macroeconomic bubbles or pyramid schemes.We show how these bubbles mitigate the effects of financial frictions. During bubbly episodes,unproductive investors demand bubbles while productive investors supply them. These transfersof resources improve the efficiency at which the economy operates, expanding consumption, thecapital stock and output. When bubbly episodes end, these transfers stop and consumption, thecapital stock and output contract. We characterize the stochastic equilibria of the model and arguethat they provide a natural way of introducing bubble shocks into business cycle models.

Slow recoveries: A structural interpretation

An analysis of the performance of GDP, employment and otherlabor market variables following the troughs in postwar U.S. businesscycles points to much slower recoveries in the three most recentepisodes, but does not reveal any significant change over time in therelation between GDP and employment. This leads us to characterizethe last three episodes as slow recoveries, as opposed to jobless recoveries.We use the estimated New Keynesian model in Galí-Smets-Wouters (2011) to provide a structural interpretation for the slowerrecoveries since the early nineties.

Behavioural alteration in chronic pain: are brain glia involved?

Behavioural symptoms such as abnormal emotionality (including anxious and depressive episodes) and cognition (for instance weakened decision-making) are highly frequent in both chronic pain patients and their animal models. The theory developed in the present article posits that alterations in glial cells (astrocytes and microglia) in cortical and limbic brain regions might be the origin of such emotional and cognitive chronic pain-associated impairments. Indeed, in mood disorders (unipolar depression, anxiety disorders, autism or schizophrenia) glial changes in brain regions involved in mood control (prefrontal and cingulate cortices, amygdala and the hippocampus) have been recurrently described. Besides, glial cells have been undoubtedly identified as key actors in the sensory component of chronic pain, owing to the profound phenotypical changes they undergo throughout the sensory pathway. Hence, the possibility arises that brain astrocytes and microglia react in upper brain structures as well, mediating the related mood and cognitive dysfunctions in chronic pain. So far, only very few studies have provided results in this prospect, mainly indirectly in pain-independent researches. Nevertheless, the first scant available data seem to merge in a unified description of a brain glial reaction occurring after chronic peripheral lesion. The present article uses this scarce literature to formulate the provocative theory of a glia-driven mood and cognitive dysfunction in chronic pain, expounding upon its validity and putative therapeutical impact as well as its current limitations and expected future developments.

Glut-1 deficiency syndrome masquerading as idiopathic generalized epilepsy.

To report the case of a child with short absences and occasional myoclonias since infancy who was first diagnosed with an idiopathic generalized epilepsy, but was documented at follow-up to have a mild phenotype of glucose transporter type 1 deficiency syndrome. Unlike other reported cases of Glut-1 DS and epilepsy, this child had a normal development as well as a normal head growth and neurological examination. Early onset of seizures and later recognized episodes of mild confusion before meals together with persistent atypical EEG features and unexpected learning difficulties led to the diagnosis. Seizure control and neuropsychological improvements were obtained with a ketogenic diet.

The Anarak, Jandaq and Posht-e-Badam metamorphic complexes in central Iran: New geological data, relationships and tectonic implications

The Anarak, Jandaq and Posht-e-Badam metamorphic complexes occupy the NW part of the Central-East Iranian Microcontinent and are juxtaposed with the Great Kavir block and Sanandaj-Sirjan zone. Our recent findings redefine the origin of these complexes, so far attributed to the Precambrian-Early Paleozoic orogenic episodes, and now directly related to the tectonic evolution of the Paleo-Tethys Ocean. This tectonic evolution was initiated by Late Ordovician-Early Devonian rifting events and terminated in the Triassic by the Eocimmerian collision event due to the docking of the Cimmerian blocks with the Asiatic Turan block. The ``Variscan accretionary complex'' is a new name we proposed for the most widely distributed metamorphic rocks connected to the Anarak and Jandaq complexes. This accretionary complex exposed from SW of Jandaq to the Anarak and Kabudan areas is a thick and fine grain siliciclastic sequence accompanied by marginal-sea ophiolitic remnants, including gabbro-basalts with a supra-subduction-geochemical signature. New Ar-40/Ar-39 ages are obtained as 333-320 Ma for the metamorphism of this sequence under greenschist to amphibolite facies. Moreover, the limy intercalations in the volcano-sedimentary part of this complex in Godar-e-Siah yielded Upper Devonian-Tournaisian conodonts. The northeastern part of this complex in the Jandaq area was intruded by 215 +/- 15 Ma arc to collisional granite and pegmatites dated by ID-TIMS and its metamorphic rocks are characterized by Some Ar-40/Ar-39 radiometric ages of 163-156 Ma. The ``Variscan'' accretionary complex was northwardly accreted to the Airekan granitic terrane dated at 549 +/- 15 Ma. Later, from the Late Carboniferous to Triassic, huge amounts of oceanic material were accreted to its southern side and penetrated by several seamounts such as the Anarak and Kabudan. This new period of accretion is supported by the 280-230 Ma Ar-40/Ar-39 ages for the Anarak mild high-pressure metamorphic rocks and a 262 Ma U-Pb age for the trondhjemite-rhyolite association of that area. The Triassic Bayazeh flysch filled the foreland basin during the final closure of the Paleo-Tethys Ocean and was partly deposited and/or thrusted onto the Cimmerian Yazd block. The Paleo-Tethys magmatic arc products have been well-preserved in the Late Devonian-Carboniferous Godar-e-Siah intra-arc deposits and the Triassic Nakhlak fore-arc succession. On the passive margin of the Cimmerian block, in the Yazd region, the nearly continuous Upper Paleozoic platform-type deposition was totally interrupted during the Middle to Late Triassic. Local erosion, down to Lower Paleozoic levels, may be related to flexural bulge erosion. The platform was finally unconformably covered by Liassic continental molassic deposits of the Shemshak. One of the extensional periods related to Neo-Tethyan back-arc rifting in Late Cretaceous time finally separated parts of the Eocimmerian collisional domain from the Eurasian Turan domain. The opening and closing of this new ocean, characterized by the Nain and Sabzevar ophiolitic melanges, finally transported the Anarak-Jandaq composite terrane to Central Iran, accompanied by large scale rotation of the Central-East Iranian Microcontinent (CEIM). Due to many similarities between the Posht-e-Badam metamorphic complex and the Anarak-Jandaq composite terrane, the former could be part of the latter, if it was transported further south during Tertiary time. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting adverse events in children with fever and chemotherapy-induced neutropenia: the prospective multicenter SPOG 2003 FN study.

PURPOSE To develop a score predicting the risk of adverse events (AEs) in pediatric patients with cancer who experience fever and neutropenia (FN) and to evaluate its performance. PATIENTS AND METHODS Pediatric patients with cancer presenting with FN induced by nonmyeloablative chemotherapy were observed in a prospective multicenter study. A score predicting the risk of future AEs (ie, serious medical complication, microbiologically defined infection, radiologically confirmed pneumonia) was developed from a multivariate mixed logistic regression model. Its cross-validated predictive performance was compared with that of published risk prediction rules. Results An AE was reported in 122 (29%) of 423 FN episodes. In 57 episodes (13%), the first AE was known only after reassessment after 8 to 24 hours of inpatient management. Predicting AE at reassessment was better than prediction at presentation with FN. A differential leukocyte count did not increase the predictive performance. The score predicting future AE in 358 episodes without known AE at reassessment used the following four variables: preceding chemotherapy more intensive than acute lymphoblastic leukemia maintenance (weight = 4), hemoglobin > or = 90 g/L (weight = 5), leukocyte count less than 0.3 G/L (weight = 3), and platelet count less than 50 G/L (weight = 3). A score (sum of weights) > or = 9 predicted future AEs. The cross-validated performance of this score exceeded the performance of published risk prediction rules. At an overall sensitivity of 92%, 35% of the episodes were classified as low risk, with a specificity of 45% and a negative predictive value of 93%. CONCLUSION This score, based on four routinely accessible characteristics, accurately identifies pediatric patients with cancer with FN at risk for AEs after reassessment.

Invasive candidiasis as a cause of sepsis in the critically ill patient.

Invasive fungal infections are an increasingly frequent etiology of sepsis in critically ill patients causing substantial morbidity and mortality. Candida species are by far the predominant agent of fungal sepsis accounting for 10% to 15% of health-care associated infections, about 5% of all cases of severe sepsis and septic shock and are the fourth most common bloodstream isolates in the United States. One-third of all episodes of candidemia occur in the intensive care setting. Early diagnosis of invasive candidiasis is critical in order to initiate antifungal agents promptly. Delay in the administration of appropriate therapy increases mortality. Unfortunately, risk factors, clinical and radiological manifestations are quite unspecific and conventional culture methods are suboptimal. Non-culture based methods (such as mannan, anti-mannan, β-d-glucan, and polymerase chain reaction) have emerged but remain investigational or require additional testing in the ICU setting. Few prophylactic or pre-emptive studies have been performed in critically ill patients. They tended to be underpowered and their clinical usefulness remains to be established under most circumstances. The antifungal armamentarium has expanded considerably with the advent of lipid formulations of amphotericin B, the newest triazoles and the echinocandins. Clinical trials have shown that the triazoles and echinocandins are efficacious and well tolerated antifungal therapies. Clinical practice guidelines for the management of invasive candidiasis have been published by the European Society for Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases and the Infectious Diseases Society of North America.

Circulation of private notes during a currency shortage

This paper provides a search theoretical model that captures two phenomena that have characterized several episodes of monetary history: currency shortages and the circulation of privately issued notes. As usual in these models, the media of exchange are determined as part of the equilibrium. We characterize all the different equilibria and specify the conditions under which there is a currency shortage and/or privately issued notes are used as means of payment. There is multiplicity of equilibria for the entire parameter space, but there always exist an equilibrium in which notes circulate, either alone or together with coins. Hence, credit is a self-fulfilling phenomenon that depends on the beliefs of agents about the acceptability and future repayment of notes. The degree of circulation of coins depends on two crucial parameters, the intrinsic utility of holding coins and the extent with which it is possible to find exchange opportunities in the market.

Effect of genetic convergence on phylogenetic inference.

Phylogenetic reconstructions are a major component of many studies in evolutionary biology, but their accuracy can be reduced under certain conditions. Recent studies showed that the convergent evolution of some phenotypes resulted from recurrent amino acid substitutions in genes belonging to distant lineages. It has been suggested that these convergent substitutions could bias phylogenetic reconstruction toward grouping convergent phenotypes together, but such an effect has never been appropriately tested. We used computer simulations to determine the effect of convergent substitutions on the accuracy of phylogenetic inference. We show that, in some realistic conditions, even a relatively small proportion of convergent codons can strongly bias phylogenetic reconstruction, especially when amino acid sequences are used as characters. The strength of this bias does not depend on the reconstruction method but varies as a function of how much divergence had occurred among the lineages prior to any episodes of convergent substitutions. While the occurrence of this bias is difficult to predict, the risk of spurious groupings is strongly decreased by considering only 3rd codon positions, which are less subject to selection, as long as saturation problems are not present. Therefore, we recommend that, whenever possible, topologies obtained with amino acid sequences and 3rd codon positions be compared to identify potential phylogenetic biases and avoid evolutionarily misleading conclusions.

Comportamentos de saúde e doença numa comunidade Cabo-Verdiana em Lisboa

O objetivo foi compreender como os indivíduos se comportam em termos de saúde e o que fazem em caso de doença. Análise comparativa realçou semelhanças e divergências de práticas de saúde ou em caso de doença. O estudo foi efetuado numa amostra de 40 cabo-verdianos da primeira geração residentes na região de Lisboa, dividida em subgrupos: grupo social, geração e genero. Baseou-se em metodologia qualitativa com entrevistas semi-estruturadas. As práticas analisadas foram agrupadas em preventivas e de saúde, práticas utilizadas em episódios de doença, recursos para prevenção e tratamento, utilização de remédios caseiros e outros recursos ou terapeutas. Indivíduos experimentaram, ao nível das práticas, três sistemas de saúde que coexistiam em Cabo Verde, oficial, popular e tradicional e o recurso à religião. O discurso acerca das práticas de saúde e de doença demonstrou existirem diferenças, em alguns aspectos, entre grupos sociais e entre generos e gerações. Práticas de saúde destes imigrantes são idênticas às dos portugueses em contextos socioeconomicos semelhantes. Resultados sugerem existência de diferenças entre grupos sociais relativamente às práticas, na esfera da saúde e da doença. Mais que cultura e etnicidade, que se moldam às condições materiais de existência, neste estudo, o nível socioeconomico determinou as maiores diferenças a interferir nas práticas de saúde e doença, de grupo com cultura de base comum. Em geral, os indivíduos sobrevalorizaram sua identidade étnica e cultura de origem. Pertencimento a grupos sociais diferentes dá origem a partilha do sentimento de pertença cultural, mas não a comportamentos e práticas idênticos.

Comportamentos de saúde e doença numa comunidade Cabo-Verdiana em Lisboa

This study aims at analysing, through personal reports, the way individuals behave in terms of health and illness. A comparative analysis of the collected data was performed, with the purpose of highlighting divergences in the health and illness practices. The study was undertaken with a sample of 40 «first generation» Cape Verdeans living in the Metropolitan area of Lisbon, divided into distinct groups: social (popular and elite), generation (younger and older) and gender (men and women). A qualitative methodology was employed, by conducting semi-structured interviews for the collection of information. The health and illness practices were grouped into preventive and health care practices, practices used in episodes of illness, resources used for prevention and treatment, use of home remedies, and other alternative resources. Individuals who are part of our study experimented, at the level of practices, with the three health systems that existed in Cape Verde, namely, the official, popular and traditional, and recourse to religion. The discourse analysis concerning health and disease practices showed there are differences, in some respects, between social groups. There were also slight differences between genders and generations. These immigrants’ health practices are identical to those of the Portuguese who are in similar socioeconomic contexts, with no significant effects of immigration itself on these practices. The analysis of the results confirms the existence of differences between social groups concerning the health and illness practices. They were more determined by the socioeconomic factors than by the cultural and ethnic aspects. Those differences also highlighted the existence of a unifying aspect, resulting from their cultural heritage. Although belonging to different social groups, the existence of a common culture and ethnic identity originates a shared feeling of cultural belonging, but not identical behaviours and practices.

Financial integration, productivity and capital accumulation

Understanding the mechanism through which financial globalization affect economic performance is crucial for evaluating the costs and benefits of opening financial markets. This paper is a first attempt at disentangling the effects of financial integration on the two main determinants of economic performance: productivity (TFP)and investments. I provide empirical evidence from a sample of 93 countries observed between 1975 and 1999. The results suggest that financial integration has a positive direct effect on productivity, while it spurs capital accumulation only with some delay and indirectly, since capital follows the rise in productivity. I control for indirect effects of financial globalization through banking crises. Such episodes depress both investments and TFP, though they are triggered by financial integration only to a minor extent. The paper also provides a discussion of a simple model on the effects of financial integration, and shows additional empirical evidence supporting it.

O Papel do Ar e Água Ambientais como Veículos de Transmissão de Infeções Fúngicas no Hospital Agostinho Neto, Cidade da Praia, Cabo Verde

Os fungos são um grupo de microrganismos diversificado com uma grande ubiquidade na natureza, podendo ser encontrados no solo, no ar e na água. Alguns destes microrganismos são considerados como verdadeiros agentes patogénicos para humanos e, embora na grande maioria sejam inofensivos para indivíduos saudáveis, tornam-se patogénicos para indivíduos com fragilidade imunológica. A infeção por estes agentes em ambiente hospitalar tem sido relatada neste últimos anos como a principal causa de morte nos pacientes internados com debilidade imunológica. Neste estudo foi feita a monitorização da presença de fungos no ambiente de algumas unidades mais críticas do Hospital Agostinho Neto na cidade da Praia em Cabo Verde durante o mês de Janeiro de 2012, nomeadamente no Bloco Operatório do hospital, no serviço de internamento Cirúrgico e Queimadura, no serviço de internamento de Neonatologia, no serviço de internamento de Infeciologia, no serviço de Oncologia e no serviço de Hemodiálise. No total foram recolhidas 34 amostras de diferentes locais, detectadas 393ufc/m3 no ar, 685ufc/m3 na água e 2696ufc/m2 nas superfícies e isolados 104 fungos morfologicamente diferentes, sendo sido obtidos 29 a partir do ar, 21 de amostras da água e 54 de superfícies. A análise micológica destas amostras revelou uma forte presença dos géneros como Penicillium sp., Cladosporium sp. e Aspergillus sp. em todas as colheitas. Sabendo que a contaminação do ambiente hospitalar por estes agentes pode ser um fator de risco para infeção nosocomial em pacientes com sistema imunitário muito debilitado, sugerimos no final do trabalho algumas linhas orientadoras para minimizar os fatores de risco e propor trabalhos futuros para correlacionar esses fatores com casos de ocorrência de infeções fúngicas no Hospital Agostinho Neto na cidade da Praia, Cabo Verde.

Application of the 2008 definitions for invasive fungal diseases to the trial comparing voriconazole versus amphotericin B for therapy of invasive aspergillosis: a collaborative study of the Mycoses Study Group (MSG 05) and the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Infectious Diseases Group.

BACKGROUND: Strict definition of invasive aspergillosis (IA) cases is required to allow precise conclusions about the efficacy of antifungal therapy. The Global Comparative Aspergillus Study (GCAS) compared voriconazole to amphotericin B (AmB) deoxycholate for the primary therapy of IA. Because predefined definitions used for this trial were substantially different from the consensus definitions proposed by the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer/Mycoses Study Group in 2008, we recategorized the 379 episodes of the GCAS according to the later definitions. METHODS: The objectives were to assess the impact of the current definitions on the classification of the episodes and to provide comparative efficacy for probable/proven and possible IA in patients treated with either voriconazole or AmB. In addition to original data, we integrated the results of baseline galactomannan serum levels obtained from 249 (65.7%) frozen samples. The original response assessment was accepted unchanged. RESULTS: Recategorization allowed 59 proven, 178 probable, and 106 possible IA cases to be identified. A higher favorable 12-week response rate was obtained with voriconazole (54.7%) than with AmB (29.9%) (P < .0001). Survival was higher for voriconazole for mycologically documented (probable/proven) IA (70.2%) than with AmB (54.9%) (P = .010). Higher response rates were obtained in possible IA treated with voriconazole vs AmB with the same magnitude of difference (26.2%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.2%-45.3%) as in mycologically documented episodes (24.3%; 95% CI, 11.9%-36.7%), suggesting that possible cases are true IA. CONCLUSIONS: Recategorization resulted in a better identification of the episodes and confirmed the higher efficacy of voriconazole over AmB deoxycholate in mycologically documented IA.

Why do emerging economies borrow short term?

We argue that one reason why emerging economies borrow short term is that it is cheaperthan borrowing long term. This is especially the case during crises, as in these episodes therelative cost of long-term borrowing increases. We construct a unique database of sovereignbond prices, returns, and issuances at di¤erent maturities for 11 emerging economies from 1990to 2009 and present a set of new stylized facts. On average, these countries pay a higher riskpremium on long-term than on short-term bonds. During crises, the di¤erence between the tworisk premia increases and issuance shifts towards shorter maturities. To illustrate our argument,we present a simple model in which the maturity structure is the outcome of a risk sharingproblem between an emerging economy subject to rollover crises and risk averse internationalinvestors.