Cholesky Residuals for Assessing Normal Errors in a Linear Model with Correlated Outcomes: Technical Report

Despite the widespread popularity of linear models for correlated outcomes (e.g. linear mixed models and time series models), distribution diagnostic methodology remains relatively underdeveloped in this context. In this paper we present an easy-to-implement approach that lends itself to graphical displays of model fit. Our approach involves multiplying the estimated margional residual vector by the Cholesky decomposition of the inverse of the estimated margional variance matrix. The resulting "rotated" residuals are used to construct an empirical cumulative distribution function and pointwise standard errors. The theoretical framework, including conditions and asymptotic properties, involves technical details that are motivated by Lange and Ryan (1989), Pierce (1982), and Randles (1982). Our method appears to work well in a variety of circumstances, including models having independent units of sampling (clustered data) and models for which all observations are correlated (e.g., a single time series). Our methods can produce satisfactory results even for models that do not satisfy all of the technical conditions stated in our theory.

Underestimation of Standard Errors in Multi-Site Time Series Studies

Multi-site time series studies of air pollution and mortality and morbidity have figured prominently in the literature as comprehensive approaches for estimating acute effects of air pollution on health. Hierarchical models are generally used to combine site-specific information and estimate pooled air pollution effects taking into account both within-site statistical uncertainty, and across-site heterogeneity. Within a site, characteristics of time series data of air pollution and health (small pollution effects, missing data, highly correlated predictors, non linear confounding etc.) make modelling all sources of uncertainty challenging. One potential consequence is underestimation of the statistical variance of the site-specific effects to be combined. In this paper we investigate the impact of variance underestimation on the pooled relative rate estimate. We focus on two-stage normal-normal hierarchical models and on under- estimation of the statistical variance at the first stage. By mathematical considerations and simulation studies, we found that variance underestimation does not affect the pooled estimate substantially. However, some sensitivity of the pooled estimate to variance underestimation is observed when the number of sites is small and underestimation is severe. These simulation results are applicable to any two-stage normal-normal hierarchical model for combining information of site-specific results, and they can be easily extended to more general hierarchical formulations. We also examined the impact of variance underestimation on the national average relative rate estimate from the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study and we found that variance underestimation as much as 40% has little effect on the national average.

LEARNING FROM NEAR MISSES IN MEDICATION ERRORS: A BAYESIAN APPROACH

Medical errors originating in health care facilities are a significant source of preventable morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. Voluntary error report systems that collect information on the causes and contributing factors of medi- cal errors regardless of the resulting harm may be useful for developing effective harm prevention strategies. Some patient safety experts question the utility of data from errors that did not lead to harm to the patient, also called near misses. A near miss (a.k.a. close call) is an unplanned event that did not result in injury to the patient. Only a fortunate break in the chain of events prevented injury. We use data from a large voluntary reporting system of 836,174 medication errors from 1999 to 2005 to provide evidence that the causes and contributing factors of errors that result in harm are similar to the causes and contributing factors of near misses. We develop Bayesian hierarchical models for estimating the log odds of selecting a given cause (or contributing factor) of error given harm has occurred and the log odds of selecting the same cause given that harm did not occur. The posterior distribution of the correlation between these two vectors of log-odds is used as a measure of the evidence supporting the use of data from near misses and their causes and contributing factors to prevent medical errors. In addition, we identify the causes and contributing factors that have the highest or lowest log-odds ratio of harm versus no harm. These causes and contributing factors should also be a focus in the design of prevention strategies. This paper provides important evidence on the utility of data from near misses, which constitute the vast majority of errors in our data.

Dosimetric impact of geometric errors due to respiratory motion prediction on dynamic multileaf collimator-based four-dimensional radiation delivery

The synchronization of dynamic multileaf collimator (DMLC) response with respiratory motion is critical to ensure the accuracy of DMLC-based four dimensional (4D) radiation delivery. In practice, however, a finite time delay (response time) between the acquisition of tumor position and multileaf collimator response necessitates predictive models of respiratory tumor motion to synchronize radiation delivery. Predicting a complex process such as respiratory motion introduces geometric errors, which have been reported in several publications. However, the dosimetric effect of such errors on 4D radiation delivery has not yet been investigated. Thus, our aim in this work was to quantify the dosimetric effects of geometric error due to prediction under several different conditions. Conformal and intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plans for a lung patient were generated for anterior-posterior/posterior-anterior (AP/PA) beam arrangements at 6 and 18 MV energies to provide planned dose distributions. Respiratory motion data was obtained from 60 diaphragm-motion fluoroscopy recordings from five patients. A linear adaptive filter was employed to predict the tumor position. The geometric error of prediction was defined as the absolute difference between predicted and actual positions at each diaphragm position. Distributions of geometric error of prediction were obtained for all of the respiratory motion data. Planned dose distributions were then convolved with distributions for the geometric error of prediction to obtain convolved dose distributions. The dosimetric effect of such geometric errors was determined as a function of several variables: response time (0-0.6 s), beam energy (6/18 MV), treatment delivery (3D/4D), treatment type (conformal/IMRT), beam direction (AP/PA), and breathing training type (free breathing/audio instruction/visual feedback). Dose difference and distance-to-agreement analysis was employed to quantify results. Based on our data, the dosimetric impact of prediction (a) increased with response time, (b) was larger for 3D radiation therapy as compared with 4D radiation therapy, (c) was relatively insensitive to change in beam energy and beam direction, (d) was greater for IMRT distributions as compared with conformal distributions, (e) was smaller than the dosimetric impact of latency, and (f) was greatest for respiration motion with audio instructions, followed by visual feedback and free breathing. Geometric errors of prediction that occur during 4D radiation delivery introduce dosimetric errors that are dependent on several factors, such as response time, treatment-delivery type, and beam energy. Even for relatively small response times of 0.6 s into the future, dosimetric errors due to prediction could approach delivery errors when respiratory motion is not accounted for at all. To reduce the dosimetric impact, better predictive models and/or shorter response times are required.

Monte Carlo source model for photon beam radiotherapy: photon source characteristics

A major barrier to widespread clinical implementation of Monte Carlo dose calculation is the difficulty in characterizing the radiation source within a generalized source model. This work aims to develop a generalized three-component source model (target, primary collimator, flattening filter) for 6- and 18-MV photon beams that match full phase-space data (PSD). Subsource by subsource comparison of dose distributions, using either source PSD or the source model as input, allows accurate source characterization and has the potential to ease the commissioning procedure, since it is possible to obtain information about which subsource needs to be tuned. This source model is unique in that, compared to previous source models, it retains additional correlations among PS variables, which improves accuracy at nonstandard source-to-surface distances (SSDs). In our study, three-dimensional (3D) dose calculations were performed for SSDs ranging from 50 to 200 cm and for field sizes from 1 x 1 to 30 x 30 cm2 as well as a 10 x 10 cm2 field 5 cm off axis in each direction. The 3D dose distributions, using either full PSD or the source model as input, were compared in terms of dose-difference and distance-to-agreement. With this model, over 99% of the voxels agreed within +/-1% or 1 mm for the target, within 2% or 2 mm for the primary collimator, and within +/-2.5% or 2 mm for the flattening filter in all cases studied. For the dose distributions, 99% of the dose voxels agreed within 1% or 1 mm when the combined source model-including a charged particle source and the full PSD as input-was used. The accurate and general characterization of each photon source and knowledge of the subsource dose distributions should facilitate source model commissioning procedures by allowing scaling the histogram distributions representing the subsources to be tuned.

Simple beam models for Monte Carlo photon beam dose calculations in radiotherapy

Monte Carlo (code GEANT) produced 6 and 15 MV phase space (PS) data were used to define several simple photon beam models. For creating the PS data the energy of starting electrons hitting the target was tuned to get correct depth dose data compared to measurements. The modeling process used the full PS information within the geometrical boundaries of the beam including all scattered radiation of the accelerator head. Scattered radiation outside the boundaries was neglected. Photons and electrons were assumed to be radiated from point sources. Four different models were investigated which involved different ways to determine the energies and locations of beam particles in the output plane. Depth dose curves, profiles, and relative output factors were calculated with these models for six field sizes from 5x5 to 40x40cm2 and compared to measurements. Model 1 uses a photon energy spectrum independent of location in the PS plane and a constant photon fluence in this plane. Model 2 takes into account the spatial particle fluence distribution in the PS plane. A constant fluence is used again in model 3, but the photon energy spectrum depends upon the off axis position. Model 4, finally uses the spatial particle fluence distribution and off axis dependent photon energy spectra in the PS plane. Depth dose curves and profiles for field sizes up to 10x10cm2 were not model sensitive. Good agreement between measured and calculated depth dose curves and profiles for all field sizes was reached for model 4. However, increasing deviations were found for increasing field sizes for models 1-3. Large deviations resulted for the profiles of models 2 and 3. This is due to the fact that these models overestimate and underestimate the energy fluence at large off axis distances. Relative output factors consistent with measurements resulted only for model 4.

Laryngeal and hypopharyngeal carcinomas after (chemo)radiotherapy: a diagnostic dilemma

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: During recent years, (chemo)radiotherapy has evolved into a primary treatment modality for both early and advanced laryngeal and hypopharyngeal carcinomas. Head and neck surgeons will be concerned more frequently with patients presenting symptoms and signs suggesting recurrent tumor or complications of (chemo)radiotherapy. RECENT FINDINGS: Analysis of histologic characteristics and tumor spread of recurrent carcinomas on whole-organ slices of salvage laryngectomy specimens showed that recurrent laryngeal carcinomas are often present with multiple tumor foci dispersed in different regions; furthermore, they may develop beneath an intact mucosa. Only a few articles analyze the reliability of laryngoscopy and biopsy in detecting recurrences after (chemo)radiotherapy: the number of false negative biopsies is relatively high. The differentiation between radionecrosis and tumor recurrence is difficult by computed tomography scan and magnetic resonance imaging in many cases. Positron emission tomography-computed tomography and diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging are promising diagnostic modalities to detect or exclude persistent or recurrent disease after (chemo)radiotherapy. SUMMARY: Endoscopy with biopsy, computed tomography scan and conventional magnetic resonance imaging present several deficiencies in diagnosing recurrent disease after (chemo)radiotherapy. New imaging modalities such as positron emission tomography-computed tomography and diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging show promising results, increasing the diagnostic efficacy.

A psychoeducational intervention reduces the need for anesthesia during radiotherapy for young childhood cancer patients

BACKGROUND: Radiotherapy (RT) has become an important treatment modality in pediatric oncology, but its delivery to young children with cancer is challenging and general anesthesia is often needed. METHODS: To evaluate whether a psychoeducational intervention might reduce the need for anesthesia, 223 consecutive pediatric cancer patients receiving 4141 RT fractions during 244 RT courses between February 1989 and January 2006 were studied. Whereas in 154 RT courses corresponding with 2580 RT fractions patients received no psychoeducational intervention (group A), 90 RT courses respectively 1561 RT fractions were accomplished by using psychoeducational intervention (group B). This tailored psychoeducational intervention in group B included a play program and interactive support by a trained nurse according to age to get familiar with staff, equipment and procedure of radiotherapy. RESULTS: Group A did not differ significantly from group B in age at RT, gender, diagnosis, localization of RT and positioning during RT. Whereas 33 (21.4%) patients in group A got anesthesia, only 8 (8.9%) patients in group B needed anesthesia. The median age of cooperating patients without anesthesia decreased from 3.2 to 2.7 years. In both uni- and multivariate analyses the psychoeducational intervention significantly and independently reduced the need for anesthesia. CONCLUSION: We conclude that a specifically tailored psychoeducational intervention is able to reduce the need for anesthesia in children undergoing RT for cancer. This results in lower costs and increased cooperation during RT.

The exchange of radiotherapy data as part of an electronic patient-referral system

PURPOSE: To describe the implementation and use of an electronic patient-referral system as an aid to the efficient referral of patients to a remote and specialized treatment center. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A system for the exchange of radiotherapy data between different commercial planning systems and a specially developed planning system for proton therapy has been developed through the use of the PAPYRUS diagnostic image standard as an intermediate format. To ensure the cooperation of the different TPS manufacturers, the number of data sets defined for transfer has been restricted to the three core data sets of CT, VOIs, and three-dimensional dose distributions. As a complement to the exchange of data, network-wide application-sharing (video-conferencing) technologies have been adopted to provide methods for the interactive discussion and assessment of treatments plans with one or more partner clinics. RESULTS: Through the use of evaluation plans based on the exchanged data, referring clinics can accurately assess the advantages offered by proton therapy on a patient-by-patient basis, while the practicality or otherwise of the proposed treatments can simultaneously be assessed by the proton therapy center. Such a system, along with the interactive capabilities provided by video-conferencing methods, has been found to be an efficient solution to the problem of patient assessment and selection at a specialized treatment center, and is a necessary first step toward the full electronic integration of such centers with their remotely situated referral centers.

Predictors of swallowing outcome in patients treated with surgery and radiotherapy for advanced oral and oropharyngeal cancer

Retaining effective swallowing is a key element when optimising outcomes in the management of head and neck cancer. We report the functional swallowing outcomes for a cohort of 31 individuals with advanced oral and oropharyngeal cancer who underwent free or pedicled flap reconstruction of surgical defects. Swallowing was assessed pre and immediately post surgery and at four months post treatment. Swallowing assessments were related to site, size and volume of defect and composition of flap reconstruction. The effect of radiotherapy on swallowing was assessed among 17 of the 31 individuals who were submitted to radiotherapy after surgery. The proportion of patients on a total oral diet four months post treatment varied significantly by site of defect (Fishers exact test p=0.006), from 100% (7/7) of patients with a lateral defect to only 22% (2/9) of patients with a central defect. The proportion of patients on a total oral diet at the final assessment did not vary by flap reconstruction or radiotherapy.

Direct combination of nanoparticle fabrication and exposure to lung cell cultures in a closed setup as a method to simulate accidental nanoparticle exposure of humans

The tremendous application potential of nanosized materials stays in sharp contrast to a growing number of critical reports of their potential toxicity. Applications of in vitro methods to assess nanoparticles are severely limited through difficulties in exposing cells of the respiratory tract directly to airborne engineered nanoparticles. We present a completely new approach to expose lung cells to particles generated in situ by flame spray synthesis. Cerium oxide nanoparticles from a single run were produced and simultaneously exposed to the surface of cultured lung cells inside a glovebox. Separately collected samples were used to measure hydrodynamic particle size distribution, shape, and agglomerate morphology. Cell viability was not impaired by the conditions of the glovebox exposure. The tightness of the lung cell monolayer, the mean total lamellar body volume, and the generation of oxidative DNA damage revealed a dose-dependent cellular response to the airborne engineered nanoparticles. The direct combination of production and exposure allows studying particle toxicity in a simple and reproducible way under environmental conditions.

Use of gold markers for setup in image-guided fractionated high-dose-rate brachytherapy as a monotherapy for prostate cancer

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: In order to use a single implant with one treatment plan in fractionated high-dose-rate brachytherapy (HDR-B), applicator position shifts must be corrected prior to each fraction. The authors investigated the use of gold markers for X-ray-based setup and position control between the single fractions. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Caudad-cephalad movement of the applicators prior to each HDR-B fraction was determined on radiographs using two to three gold markers, which had been inserted into the prostate as intraprostatic reference, and one to two radiopaque-labeled reference applicators. 35 prostate cancer patients, treated by HDR-B as a monotherapy between 10/2003 and 06/2006 with four fractions of 9.5 Gy each, were analyzed. Toxicity was scored according to the CTCAE Score, version 3.0. Median follow-up was 3 years. RESULTS: The mean change of applicators positions compared to baseline varied substantially between HDR-B fractions, being 1.4 mm before fraction 1 (range, -4 to 2 mm), -13.1 mm before fraction 2 (range, -36 to 0 mm), -4.1 mm before fraction 3 (range, -21 to 9 mm), and -2.6 mm at fraction 4 (range, -16 to 9 mm). The original position of the applicators could be readjusted easily prior to each fraction in every patient. In 18 patients (51%), the applicators were at least once readjusted > 10 mm, however, acute or late grade > or = 2 genitourinary toxicity was not increased (p = 1.0) in these patients. CONCLUSION: Caudad position shifts up to 36 mm were observed. Gold markers represent a valuable tool to ensure setup accuracy and precise dose delivery in fractionated HDR-B monotherapy of prostate cancer.

The results of surgery, with or without radiotherapy, for primary spinal myxopapillary ependymoma: a retrospective study from the rare cancer network

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to assess the outcome of patients with primary spinal myxopapillary ependymoma (MPE). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from a series of 85 (35 females, 50 males) patients with spinal MPE were collected in this retrospective multicenter study. Thirty-eight (45%) underwent surgery only and 47 (55%) received postoperative radiotherapy (RT). Median administered radiation dose was 50.4 Gy (range, 22.2-59.4). Median follow-up of the surviving patients was 60.0 months (range, 0.2-316.6). RESULTS: The 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) was 50.4% and 74.8% for surgery only and surgery with postoperative low- (<50.4 Gy) or high-dose (>or=50.4 Gy) RT, respectively. Treatment failure was observed in 24 (28%) patients. Fifteen patients presented treatment failure at the primary site only, whereas 2 and 1 patients presented with brain and distant spinal failure only. Three and 2 patients with local failure presented with concomitant spinal distant seeding and brain failure, respectively. One patient failed simultaneously in the brain and spine. Age greater than 36 years (p = 0.01), absence of neurologic symptoms at diagnosis (p = 0.01), tumor size >or=25 mm (p = 0.04), and postoperative high-dose RT (p = 0.05) were variables predictive of improved PFS on univariate analysis. In multivariate analysis, only postoperative high-dose RT was independent predictors of PFS (p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: The observed pattern of failure was mainly local, but one fifth of the patients presented with a concomitant spinal or brain component. Postoperative high-dose RT appears to significantly reduce the rate of tumor progression.