Organisational values as "attractors of chaos": An emerging cultural change to manage organisational complexity

Business organisations are excellent representations of what in physics and mathematics are designated "chaotic" systems. Because a culture of innovation will be vital for organisational survival in the 21st century, the present paper proposes that viewing organisations in terms of "complexity theory" may assist leaders in fine-tuning managerial philosophies that provide orderly management emphasizing stability within a culture of organised chaos, for it is on the "boundary of chaos" that the greatest creativity occurs. It is argued that 21st century companies, as chaotic social systems, will no longer be effectively managed by rigid objectives (MBO) nor by instructions (MBI). Their capacity for self-organisation will be derived essentially from how their members accept a shared set of values or principles for action (MBV). Complexity theory deals with systems that show complex structures in time or space, often hiding simple deterministic rules. This theory holds that once these rules are found, it is possible to make effective predictions and even to control the apparent complexity. The state of chaos that self-organises, thanks to the appearance of the "strange attractor", is the ideal basis for creativity and innovation in the company. In this self-organised state of chaos, members are not confined to narrow roles, and gradually develop their capacity for differentiation and relationships, growing continuously toward their maximum potential contribution to the efficiency of the organisation. In this way, values act as organisers or "attractors" of disorder, which in the theory of chaos are equations represented by unusually regular geometric configurations that predict the long-term behaviour of complex systems. In business organisations (as in all kinds of social systems) the starting principles end up as the final principles in the long term. An attractor is a model representation of the behavioral results of a system. The attractor is not a force of attraction or a goal-oriented presence in the system; it simply depicts where the system is headed based on its rules of motion. Thus, in a culture that cultivates or shares values of autonomy, responsibility, independence, innovation, creativity, and proaction, the risk of short-term chaos is mitigated by an overall long-term sense of direction. A more suitable approach to manage the internal and external complexities that organisations are currently confronting is to alter their dominant culture under the principles of MBV.

Project AWARE 2007 Raccoon River, 2008

This monthly report from the Iowa Department of Transportation is about the water quality management of Iowa's rivers, streams and lakes.

Relying on the agent in charge of production for project evaluation

I study the optimal project choice when the principal relies on the agent in charge of production for project evaluation. The principal has to choose between a safe project generating a fixed revenue and a risky project generating an uncertain revenue. The agent has private information about the production cost under each project but also about the signal regarding the profitability of the risky project. If the signal favoring the adoption of the risky project is goods news to the agent, integrating production and project evaluation tasks does not generate any loss compared to the benchmark in which the principal herself receives the signal. By contrast, if it is bad news, task integration creates an endogenous reservation utility which is type-dependent and thereby generates countervailing incentives, which can make a bias toward either project optimal. Our results can offer an explanation for why good firms can go bad and a rationale for the separation of day-to-day operating decisions from long-term strategic decisions stressed by Williamson.

Le poids, les habitudes alimentaires et l'activité physique dans la population en Suisse: le projet MONICA. [Weight, nutritional habits and physical-activity in Switzerland: the MONICA-Project].

La première enquête de prévalence des facteurs de risque pour les maladies cardio-vasculaires qui a été effectuée auprès de la population des cantons de Vaud, Fribourg et du Tessin, dans le cadre du Projet MONICA, a permis de décrire la distribution de l'indice de masse corporelle. Entre 25 et 74 ans, près d'une personne sur 4 a un excès de poids préjudiciable à sa santé, cette proportion étant même de plus de 1 sur 3 chez les hommes tessinois. Cet état de fait n'est peut-être pas irrémédiable puisque 1 femme sur 3 et 1 homme sur 5 a modifié ses habitudes alimentaires dans le sens d'une nourriture plus saine et moins énergétique au cours des 12 mois précédant l'enquête. Cependant une activité physique régulière, susceptible d'avoir un rôle préventif sur la survenue des maladies cardio-vasculaires et qui pourrait contribuer à la diminution de la fréquence de l'obésité, n'est exercée que par moins de la moitié de la population en moyenne. C'est probablement l'exercice régulier d'activités sportives qui permettrait le plus d'augmenter le niveau général de l'activité physique dans la population puisque peu de personnes exercent une profession exigeant d'intenses efforts physiques.

On the complexity of rationalizing behavior

We study the complexity of rationalizing choice behavior. We do so by analyzing two polar cases, and a number of intermediate ones. In our most structured case, that is where choice behavior is defined in universal choice domains and satisfies the "weak axiom of revealed preference," finding the complete preorder rationalizing choice behavior is a simple matter. In the polar case, where no restriction whatsoever is imposed, either on choice behavior or on choice domain, finding the complete preordersthat rationalize behavior turns out to be intractable. We show that the task of finding the rationalizing complete preorders is equivalent to a graph problem. This allows the search for existing algorithms in the graph theory literature, for the rationalization of choice.

Agreed upon procedures of the Iowa Department of Human Services, IowaCare Project for the year ended June 30, 2008

Agreed upon procedures of the Iowa Department of Human Services, IowaCare Project for the year ended June 30, 2008

Un projet multicentrique suisse pour améliorer la prévention et la récidive après un syndrome coronarien aigu [A Swiss multicentric project to improve the prevention of cardiovascular event recurrence after acute coronary syndromes].

Recurrence of cardiovascular events and mortality remain high after acute coronary syndromes. A Swiss multicentric study, "Inflammation and acute coronary syndromes (ACS)--Novel strategies for prevention and clinical managements", is currently underway with the support of the Swiss National Science Foundation. The study includes a clinical research subproject of which the aim is to assess the impact of the ELIPS program (multi-dimEnsionaL prevention Program after acute coronary Syndrome) on the recurrence of cardiovascular events after an ACS. The basic research sub-projects aim to investigate novel cardiovascular risk biomarkers and genetic determinants of recurrence and to study the role of stem cells after an ACS. Another sub-project will evaluate intracoronary imaging techniques and the efficacy of different types of stents.

Contribution of major cardiovascular risk factors to familial premature coronary artery disease : the GENECARD project

Résumé Objectifs: Cette étude relève la prévalence des principaux facteurs de risque cardiovasculaire dans les coronaropathies précoces (P-CAD) familiales, survenant chez au moins deux frères et/ou soeurs d'une même fratrie. Méthodes: Nous avons recruté 213 survivants atteints de P-CAD, issus de 103 fratries, diagnostiqués avant l'âge de 50 ans chez les hommes et 55 ans chez les femmes. La présence ou non d'hypertension, d'hypercholestérolémie, d'obésité et de tabagisme a été documentée au moment de l'événement chez 163 de ces patients (145 hommes et 18 femmes). Chaque patient a été comparé à deux individus de même âge et sexe, chez qui un diagnostic de P-CAD «sporadique» (non familiale) était posé, et à trois individus choisis au hasard parmi la population générale. Résultats: En comparaison de la population générale, les patients atteints de P-CAD sporadique avaient une prévalence supérieure pour l 'hypertension (29% vs. 14%, p<0.001), le cholestérol (54% vs. 33%, p<0.001), l'obésité (20% vs. 13%, p<0.001) et le tabagisme (76% vs. 39%, p<0.001). Ces facteurs de risque étaient de prévalences similaires, voire supérieures chez les patients atteints de P-CAD familiale (43% [p0.05 vs. P-CAD sporadiques], 58% [p=0.07], 21% et 72% respectivement). Seulement 7 (4%) des 163 patients atteints de P-CAD familiale et 22 (7%) des 326 patients atteints de P-CAD sporadique, ne présentaient aucun facteur de risque cardiovasculaire, comparés à 167 (34%) des 489 patients issus de la population générale. Conclusions: Les facteurs de risque cardiovasculaire classiques et réversibles ont une haute prévalence chez les patients atteints de P-CAD familiale. Ce fait rend improbable une contribution génétique prédominante, agissant en l'absence de facteurs de risque. Summary Objectives: This study was designed to assess the prevalence of major cardiovascular risk factors in familial premature coronary artery disease (P-CAD), affecting two or more siblings within one sibship. Background: Premature CAD has a genetic component. It remains to be established whether familial P-CAD is due to genes acting independently from major cardiovascular risk factors. Methods: We recruited 213 P-CAD survivors from 103 sibships diagnosed before age ?50 (men) or ?55 (women) years old. Hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, obesity, and smoking were documented at the time of the event in 163 patients (145 men and 18 women). Each patient was compared with two individuals of the same age and gender, diagnosed with sporadic (nonfamilial) P-CAD, and three individuals randomly sampled from the general population. Result: Compared with the general population, patients with sporadic P-CAD had a higher prevalence of hypertension (29% vs. 14%, p < 0.001), hypercholesterolemia (54% vs. 33%, p < 0.001), obesity (20% vs. 13%, p < 0.01), and smoking (76% vs. 39%, p < 0.001). These risk factors were equally or even more prevalent in patients with familial P-CAD (43% [p < 0.05 vs. sporadic P-CAD], 58% [p = 0.07], 21% and 72%, respectively). Overall, only 7 (4%) of 163 of patients with familial P-CAD and 22 (7%) of 326 of patients with sporadic P-CAD had none of these conditions, as compared with 167 (34%) of 489 patients in the general population. Conclusions: Classic, remediable risk factors are highly prevalent in patients with familial P-CAD. Accordingly, a major contribution of genes acting in the absence of these risk factors is unlikely.

Predicting stroke through genetic risk functions: the CHARGE Risk Score Project.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors. METHODS: The study includes 4 population-based cohorts with 2047 first incident strokes from 22,720 initially stroke-free European origin participants aged ≥55 years, who were followed for up to 20 years. GRSs were constructed with 324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms implicated in stroke and 9 risk factors. The association of the GRS to first incident stroke was tested using Cox regression; the GRS predictive properties were assessed with area under the curve statistics comparing the GRS with age and sex, Framingham Stroke Risk Score models, and reclassification statistics. These analyses were performed per cohort and in a meta-analysis of pooled data. Replication was sought in a case-control study of ischemic stroke. RESULTS: In the meta-analysis, adding the GRS to the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, age and sex model resulted in a significant improvement in discrimination (all stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.016, P=2.3×10(-6); ischemic stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.021, P=3.7×10(-7)), although the overall area under the curve remained low. In all the studies, there was a highly significantly improved net reclassification index (P<10(-4)). CONCLUSIONS: The single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors result only in a small improvement in prediction of future stroke compared with the classical epidemiological risk factors for stroke.