Spatial predictions of phylogenetic diversity in conservation decision making.

Considering genetic relatedness among species has long been argued as an important step toward measuring biological diversity more accurately, rather than relying solely on species richness. Some researchers have correlated measures of phylogenetic diversity and species richness across a series of sites and suggest that values of phylogenetic diversity do not differ enough from those of species richness to justify their inclusion in conservation planning. We compared predictions of species richness and 10 measures of phylogenetic diversity by creating distribution models for 168 individual species of a species-rich plant family, the Cape Proteaceae. When we used average amounts of land set aside for conservation to compare areas selected on the basis of species richness with areas selected on the basis of phylogenetic diversity, correlations between species richness and different measures of phylogenetic diversity varied considerably. Correlations between species richness and measures that were based on the length of phylogenetic tree branches and tree shape were weaker than those that were based on tree shape alone. Elevation explained up to 31% of the segregation of species rich versus phylogenetically rich areas. Given these results, the increased availability of molecular data, and the known ecological effect of phylogenetically rich communities, consideration of phylogenetic diversity in conservation decision making may be feasible and informative.

Decision-theoretic analysis of forensic sampling criteria using Bayesian decision networks

Sampling issues represent a topic of ongoing interest to the forensic science community essentially because of their crucial role in laboratory planning and working protocols. For this purpose, forensic literature described thorough (Bayesian) probabilistic sampling approaches. These are now widely implemented in practice. They allow, for instance, to obtain probability statements that parameters of interest (e.g., the proportion of a seizure of items that present particular features, such as an illegal substance) satisfy particular criteria (e.g., a threshold or an otherwise limiting value). Currently, there are many approaches that allow one to derive probability statements relating to a population proportion, but questions on how a forensic decision maker - typically a client of a forensic examination or a scientist acting on behalf of a client - ought actually to decide about a proportion or a sample size, remained largely unexplored to date. The research presented here intends to address methodology from decision theory that may help to cope usefully with the wide range of sampling issues typically encountered in forensic science applications. The procedures explored in this paper enable scientists to address a variety of concepts such as the (net) value of sample information, the (expected) value of sample information or the (expected) decision loss. All of these aspects directly relate to questions that are regularly encountered in casework. Besides probability theory and Bayesian inference, the proposed approach requires some additional elements from decision theory that may increase the efforts needed for practical implementation. In view of this challenge, the present paper will emphasise the merits of graphical modelling concepts, such as decision trees and Bayesian decision networks. These can support forensic scientists in applying the methodology in practice. How this may be achieved is illustrated with several examples. The graphical devices invoked here also serve the purpose of supporting the discussion of the similarities, differences and complementary aspects of existing Bayesian probabilistic sampling criteria and the decision-theoretic approach proposed throughout this paper.

Bringing actors and violent conflict into forced migration literature. A model of the decision to return

Populations displaced as a result of mass violent conflict have become one of the most pressing humanitarian concerns of the last decades. They have also become one salient political issue as a perceived burden (in economic and security terms) and as an important piece in the shift towards a more interventionist paradigm in the international system, based on both humanitarian and security grounds. The saliency of these aspects has detracted attention from the analysis of the interactions between relocation processes and violent conflict. Violent conflict studies have also largely ignored those interactions as a result of the consideration of these processes as mere reaction movements determined by structural conditions. This article takes the view that individual’s agency is retained during such processes, and that it is consequential, calling for the need to introduce a micro perspective. Based on this, a model for the individual’s decision of return is presented. The model has the potential to account for the dynamics of return at both the individual and the aggregate level. And it further helps to grasp fundamental interconnections with violent conflict. Some relevant conclusions are derived for the case of Bosnia-Herzegovina and about the implications of the politicization of return.

Use of the 2,3-diacyl-trehalose and the purified protein derivative in the serodiagnosis of tuberculosis in AIDS

The effect of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection on IgG production against purified protein derivative (PPD) and 2,3-diacil-trehalose (SL-IV) was investigated by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) test. Comparison between the antigens showed that immunocompetent patients produce preferentially antibodies to SL-IV than to PPD (73.3% versus 63.3%). Combination of these results showed an increase of the sensitivity to 80%, which decreased over the spectrum of immunodepression caused by HIV. In the tuberculous HIV seropositive group the sensitivities of SL-IV and PPD were 36.4% versus 40% and 0% versus 22.2% in the tuberculosis/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (TB/AIDS) group. Combination of these results gave respectively 54.5% and 20%, showing that serological tests have limited value for diagnosis of tuberculosis in HIV infected patients. High antibody levels were observed in HIV seropositive asymptomatic group, but only two individuals were positive for both antigens. In the follow up, one of them developed tuberculous lymphadenitis, indicating that further work is needed to access the value of serological tests in predicting tuberculosis in HIV infected individuals.

Revisiting the size-R&D productivity relation: introducing the mediating role of decision-making style on the scale and quality of innovative output

We develop a mediation model in which firm size is proposed to affect the scale and quality of innovative output through the adoption of different decision styles during the R&D process. The aim of this study is to understand how the internal changes that firms undergo as they evolve from small to larger organizations affect R&D productivity. In so doing, we illuminate the underlying theoretical mechanism affecting two different dimensions of R&D productivity, namely the scale and quality of innovative output which have not received much attention in previous literature. Using longitudinal data of Spanish manufacturing firms we explore the validity of this mediation model. Our results show that as firms evolve in size, they increasingly emphasize analytical decision making, and consequently, large-sized firms aim for higher-quality innovations while small firms aim for a larger scale of innovative output.

Analysis of Mycobacterium avium Complex Serovars Isolated from AIDS Patients from Southeast Brazil

The purpose of this study was to assess the distribution of Mycobacterium avium serovars isolated from AIDS patients in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Ninety single site or multiple site isolates from 75 patients were examined. The most frequent serovars found were 8 (39.2%), 4 (21.4%) and 1 (10.7%). The frequency of mixed infections with serovar 8 or 4 was 37.8%. Among the 90 strains examined, M. intracellulare serovars (7 strains) and M. scrofulaceum (4 strains) were found in 11 isolates (12%) indicating that M. avium (88%) was the major opportunistic species in the M. avium complex isolates in Brazilian AIDS patients