Mécanismes psychophysiques et neuronaux de la compensation dynamique de multiples champs de force : facilitation et anticipation liée à des indices de couleur

Dans cette thèse, nous abordons le contrôle moteur du mouvement du coude à travers deux approches expérimentales : une première étude psychophysique a été effectuée chez les sujets humains, et une seconde implique des enregistrements neurophysiologiques chez le singe. Nous avons recensé plusieurs aspects non résolus jusqu’à présent dans l’apprentissage moteur, particulièrement concernant l’interférence survenant lors de l’adaptation à deux ou plusieurs champs de force anti-corrélés. Nous avons conçu un paradigme où des stimuli de couleur aident les sujets à prédire la nature du champ de force externe actuel avant qu’ils ne l’expérimentent physiquement durant des mouvements d’atteinte. Ces connaissances contextuelles faciliteraient l’adaptation à des champs de forces en diminuant l’interférence. Selon le modèle computationnel de l’apprentissage moteur MOSAIC (MOdular Selection And Identification model for Control), les stimuli de couleur aident les sujets à former « un modèle interne » de chaque champ de forces, à s’en rappeler et à faire la transition entre deux champs de force différents, sans interférence. Dans l’expérience psychophysique, quatre groupes de sujets humains ont exécuté des mouvements de flexion/extension du coude contre deux champs de forces. Chaque force visqueuse était associée à une couleur de l’écran de l’ordinateur et les deux forces étaient anti-corrélées : une force résistante (Vr) a été associée à la couleur rouge de l’écran et l’autre, assistante (Va), à la couleur verte de l’écran. Les deux premiers groupes de sujets étaient des groupes témoins : la couleur de l’écran changeait à chaque bloc de 4 essais, tandis que le champ de force ne changeait pas. Les sujets du groupe témoin Va ne rencontraient que la force assistante Va et les sujets du groupe témoin Vr performaient leurs mouvements uniquement contre une force résistante Vr. Ainsi, dans ces deux groupes témoins, les stimuli de couleur n’étaient pas pertinents pour adapter le mouvement et les sujets ne s’adaptaient qu’à une seule force (Va ou Vr). Dans les deux groupes expérimentaux, cependant, les sujets expérimentaient deux champs de forces différents dans les différents blocs d’essais (4 par bloc), associés à ces couleurs. Dans le premier groupe expérimental (groupe « indice certain », IC), la relation entre le champ de force et le stimulus (couleur de l’écran) était constante. La couleur rouge signalait toujours la force Vr tandis que la force Va était signalée par la couleur verte. L’adaptation aux deux forces anti-corrélées pour le groupe IC s’est avérée significative au cours des 10 jours d’entraînement et leurs mouvements étaient presque aussi bien ajustés que ceux des deux groupes témoins qui n’avaient expérimenté qu’une seule des deux forces. De plus, les sujets du groupe IC ont rapidement démontré des changements adaptatifs prédictifs dans leurs sorties motrices à chaque changement de couleur de l’écran, et ceci même durant leur première journée d’entraînement. Ceci démontre qu’ils pouvaient utiliser les stimuli de couleur afin de se rappeler de la commande motrice adéquate. Dans le deuxième groupe expérimental, la couleur de l’écran changeait régulièrement de vert à rouge à chaque transition de blocs d’essais, mais le changement des champs de forces était randomisé par rapport aux changements de couleur (groupe « indice-incertain », II). Ces sujets ont pris plus de temps à s’adapter aux champs de forces que les 3 autres groupes et ne pouvaient pas utiliser les stimuli de couleurs, qui n’étaient pas fiables puisque non systématiquement reliés aux champs de forces, pour faire des changements prédictifs dans leurs sorties motrices. Toutefois, tous les sujets de ce groupe ont développé une stratégie ingénieuse leur permettant d’émettre une réponse motrice « par défaut » afin de palper ou de sentir le type de la force qu’ils allaient rencontrer dans le premier essai de chaque bloc, à chaque changement de couleur. En effet, ils utilisaient la rétroaction proprioceptive liée à la nature du champ de force afin de prédire la sortie motrice appropriée pour les essais qui suivent, jusqu’au prochain changement de couleur d’écran qui signifiait la possibilité de changement de force. Cette stratégie était efficace puisque la force demeurait la même dans chaque bloc, pendant lequel la couleur de l’écran restait inchangée. Cette étude a démontré que les sujets du groupe II étaient capables d’utiliser les stimuli de couleur pour extraire des informations implicites et explicites nécessaires à la réalisation des mouvements, et qu’ils pouvaient utiliser ces informations pour diminuer l’interférence lors de l’adaptation aux forces anti-corrélées. Les résultats de cette première étude nous ont encouragés à étudier les mécanismes permettant aux sujets de se rappeler d’habiletés motrices multiples jumelées à des stimuli contextuels de couleur. Dans le cadre de notre deuxième étude, nos expériences ont été effectuées au niveau neuronal chez le singe. Notre but était alors d’élucider à quel point les neurones du cortex moteur primaire (M1) peuvent contribuer à la compensation d’un large éventail de différentes forces externes durant un mouvement de flexion/extension du coude. Par cette étude, nous avons testé l’hypothèse liée au modèle MOSAIC, selon laquelle il existe plusieurs modules contrôleurs dans le cervelet qui peuvent prédire chaque contexte et produire un signal de sortie motrice approprié pour un nombre restreint de conditions. Selon ce modèle, les neurones de M1 recevraient des entrées de la part de plusieurs contrôleurs cérébelleux spécialisés et montreraient ensuite une modulation appropriée de la réponse pour une large variété de conditions. Nous avons entraîné deux singes à adapter leurs mouvements de flexion/extension du coude dans le cadre de 5 champs de force différents : un champ nul ne présentant aucune perturbation, deux forces visqueuses anti-corrélées (assistante et résistante) qui dépendaient de la vitesse du mouvement et qui ressemblaient à celles utilisées dans notre étude psychophysique chez l’homme, une force élastique résistante qui dépendait de la position de l’articulation du coude et, finalement, un champ viscoélastique comportant une sommation linéaire de la force élastique et de la force visqueuse. Chaque champ de force était couplé à une couleur d’écran de l’ordinateur, donc nous avions un total de 5 couleurs différentes associées chacune à un champ de force (relation fixe). Les singes étaient bien adaptés aux 5 conditions de champs de forces et utilisaient les stimuli contextuels de couleur pour se rappeler de la sortie motrice appropriée au contexte de forces associé à chaque couleur, prédisant ainsi leur sortie motrice avant de sentir les effets du champ de force. Les enregistrements d’EMG ont permis d’éliminer la possibilité de co-contractions sous-tendant ces adaptations, étant donné que le patron des EMG était approprié pour compenser chaque condition de champ de force. En parallèle, les neurones de M1 ont montré des changements systématiques dans leurs activités, sur le plan unitaire et populationnel, dans chaque condition de champ de force, signalant les changements requis dans la direction, l’amplitude et le décours temporel de la sortie de force musculaire nécessaire pour compenser les 5 conditions de champs de force. Les changements dans le patron de réponse pour chaque champ de force étaient assez cohérents entre les divers neurones de M1, ce qui suggère que la plupart des neurones de M1 contribuent à la compensation de toutes les conditions de champs de force, conformément aux prédictions du modèle MOSAIC. Aussi, cette modulation de l’activité neuronale ne supporte pas l’hypothèse d’une organisation fortement modulaire de M1.

ROC curves of obesity indicators have a predictive value for children hypertension aged 7-17 years

Objective: The aim of the study is to examine the distribution of integrated covariate and its association with blood pressure (BP) among children in Anhui province, China, and assess the predictive value of integrated covariate to children hypertension. Methods: A total of 2,828 subjects (1,588 male and 1,240 female) aged 7-17 years participated in this study. Height, weight, waistline, hipline and BP of all subjects were measured, obesity and overweight were defined by an international standard, specifying the measurement, the reference population, and the age and sex specific cut off points. High BP status was defined as systolic blood pressure (SBP) and/or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) > 95th percentile for age and gender. Results: Our results revealed that the prevalence of children hypertension was 11.03%, the SBP and DBP of obesity group were significantly higher than that of normal group. Anthropometric obesity indices such as body mass index (BMI) were positively correlated with SBP and DBP. Integrated covariate had a better performance than the single covariate in the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the cut-off value; the sensitivity and the specificity of the integrated covariate were 0.112, 0.577, 0.683, respectively. Conclusion: Integrated covariate is a simple and effective anthropometric index to identify childhood hypertension.

Model predictive control applied to a supply chain management problem

Supply chains are ubiquitous in any commercial delivery systems. The exchange of goods and services, from different supply points to distinct destinations scattered along a given geographical area, requires the management of stocks and vehicles fleets in order to minimize costs while maintaining good quality services. Even if the operating conditions remain constant over a given time horizon, managing a supply chain is a very complex task. Its complexity increases exponentially with both the number of network nodes and the dynamical operational changes. Moreover, the management system must be adaptive in order to easily cope with several disturbances such as machinery and vehicles breakdowns or changes in demand. This work proposes the use of a model predictive control paradigm in order to tackle the above referred issues. The obtained simulation results suggest that this strategy promotes an easy tasks rescheduling in case of disturbances or anticipated changes in operating conditions. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2017

Towards a predictive model of Ca²⁺ puffs

We investigate key characteristics of Ca²⁺ puffs in deterministic and stochastic frameworks that all incorporate the cellular morphology of IP[subscript]3 receptor channel clusters. In a first step, we numerically study Ca²⁺ liberation in a three dimensional representation of a cluster environment with reaction-diffusion dynamics in both the cytosol and the lumen. These simulations reveal that Ca²⁺ concentrations at a releasing cluster range from 80 µM to 170 µM and equilibrate almost instantaneously on the time scale of the release duration. These highly elevated Ca²⁺ concentrations eliminate Ca²⁺ oscillations in a deterministic model of an IP[subscript]3R channel cluster at physiological parameter values as revealed by a linear stability analysis. The reason lies in the saturation of all feedback processes in the IP[subscript]3R gating dynamics, so that only fluctuations can restore experimentally observed Ca²⁺ oscillations. In this spirit, we derive master equations that allow us to analytically quantify the onset of Ca²⁺ puffs and hence the stochastic time scale of intracellular Ca²⁺ dynamics. Moving up the spatial scale, we suggest to formulate cellular dynamics in terms of waiting time distribution functions. This approach prevents the state space explosion that is typical for the description of cellular dynamics based on channel states and still contains information on molecular fluctuations. We illustrate this method by studying global Ca²⁺ oscillations.

Mimicking the behaviour of idiotypic AIS robot controllers using probabilistic systems

Previous work has shown that robot navigation systems that employ an architecture based upon the idiotypic network theory of the immune system have an advantage over control techniques that rely on reinforcement learning only. This is thought to be a result of intelligent behaviour selection on the part of the idiotypic robot. In this paper an attempt is made to imitate idiotypic dynamics by creating controllers that use reinforcement with a number of different probabilistic schemes to select robot behaviour. The aims are to show that the idiotypic system is not merely performing some kind of periodic random behaviour selection, and to try to gain further insight into the processes that govern the idiotypic mechanism. Trials are carried out using simulated Pioneer robots that undertake navigation exercises. Results show that a scheme that boosts the probability of selecting highly-ranked alternative behaviours to 50% during stall conditions comes closest to achieving the properties of the idiotypic system, but remains unable to match it in terms of all round performance.

Bonafide, type-specific human papillomavirus persistence among HIV-positive pregnant women: predictive value for cytological abnormalities, a longitudinal cohort study

This study investigated the rate of human papillomavirus (HPV) persistence, associated risk factors, and predictors of cytological alteration outcomes in a cohort of human immunodeficiency virus-infected pregnant women over an 18-month period. HPV was typed through L1 gene sequencing in cervical smears collected during gestation and at 12 months after delivery. Outcomes were defined as nonpersistence (clearance of the HPV in the 2nd sample), re-infection (detection of different types of HPV in the 2 samples), and type-specific HPV persistence (the same HPV type found in both samples). An unfavourable cytological outcome was considered when the second exam showed progression to squamous intraepithelial lesion or high squamous intraepithelial lesion. Ninety patients were studied. HPV DNA persistence occurred in 50% of the cases composed of type-specific persistence (30%) or re-infection (20%). A low CD4+ T-cell count at entry was a risk factor for type-specific, re-infection, or HPV DNA persistence. The odds ratio (OR) was almost three times higher in the type-specific group when compared with the re-infection group (OR = 2.8; 95% confidence interval: 0.43-22.79). Our findings show that bonafide (type-specific) HPV persistence is a stronger predictor for the development of cytological abnormalities, highlighting the need for HPV typing as opposed to HPV DNA testing in the clinical setting.

Use of posterior predictive assessments to evaluate model fit in multilevel logistic regression

Assessing the fit of a model is an important final step in any statistical analysis, but this is not straightforward when complex discrete response models are used. Cross validation and posterior predictions have been suggested as methods to aid model criticism. In this paper a comparison is made between four methods of model predictive assessment in the context of a three level logistic regression model for clinical mastitis in dairy cattle; cross validation, a prediction using the full posterior predictive distribution and two “mixed” predictive methods that incorporate higher level random effects simulated from the underlying model distribution. Cross validation is considered a gold standard method but is computationally intensive and thus a comparison is made between posterior predictive assessments and cross validation. The analyses revealed that mixed prediction methods produced results close to cross validation whilst the full posterior predictive assessment gave predictions that were over-optimistic (closer to the observed disease rates) compared with cross validation. A mixed prediction method that simulated random effects from both higher levels was best at identifying the outlying level two (farm-year) units of interest. It is concluded that this mixed prediction method, simulating random effects from both higher levels, is straightforward and may be of value in model criticism of multilevel logistic regression, a technique commonly used for animal health data with a hierarchical structure.

Predictive models of buildings energy consumption

Dissertação de Mestrado, Engenharia Electrónica e Telecomunicações, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2015

Predictive ability of Genomic Estimated Family Values (GEFV).

Genomic selection (GS) has been used to compute genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) of individuals; however, it has only been applied to animal and major plant crops due to high costs. Besides, breeding and selection is performed at the family level in some crops. We aimed to study the implementation of genome-wide family selection (GWFS) in two loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) populations: i) the breeding population CCLONES composed of 63 families (5-20 individuals per family), phenotyped for four traits (stem diameter, stem rust susceptibility, tree stiffness and lignin content) and genotyped using an Illumina Infinium assay with 4740 polymorphic SNPs, and ii) a simulated population that reproduced the same pedigree as CCLONES, 5000 polymorphic loci and two traits (oligogenic and polygenic). In both populations, phenotypic and genotypic data was pooled at the family level in silico. Phenotypes were averaged across replicates for all the individuals and allele frequency was computed for each SNP. Marker effects were estimated at the individual (GEBV) and family (GEFV) levels with Bayes-B using the package BGLR in R and models were validated using 10-fold cross validations. Predicted ability, computed by correlating phenotypes with GEBV and GEFV, was always higher for GEFV in both populations, even after standardizing GEFV predictions to be comparable to GEBV. Results revealed great potential for using GWFS in breeding programs that select families, such as most outbreeding forage species. A significant drop in genotyping costs as one sample per family is needed would allow the application of GWFS in minor crops.

Development of an innovative non rule-based energy management strategy for a Hybrid Electric Vehicle, structured for predictive driving controls based on external information knowledge

Recently, the interest of the automotive market for hybrid vehicles has increased due to the more restrictive pollutants emissions legislation and to the necessity of decreasing the fossil fuel consumption, since such solution allows a consistent improvement of the vehicle global efficiency. The term hybridization regards the energy flow in the powertrain of a vehicle: a standard vehicle has, usually, only one energy source and one energy tank; instead, a hybrid vehicle has at least two energy sources. In most cases, the prime mover is an internal combustion engine (ICE) while the auxiliary energy source can be mechanical, electrical, pneumatic or hydraulic. It is expected from the control unit of a hybrid vehicle the use of the ICE in high efficiency working zones and to shut it down when it is more convenient, while using the EMG at partial loads and as a fast torque response during transients. However, the battery state of charge may represent a limitation for such a strategy. That’s the reason why, in most cases, energy management strategies are based on the State Of Charge, or SOC, control. Several studies have been conducted on this topic and many different approaches have been illustrated. The purpose of this dissertation is to develop an online (usable on-board) control strategy in which the operating modes are defined using an instantaneous optimization method that minimizes the equivalent fuel consumption of a hybrid electric vehicle. The equivalent fuel consumption is calculated by taking into account the total energy used by the hybrid powertrain during the propulsion phases. The first section presents the hybrid vehicles characteristics. The second chapter describes the global model, with a particular focus on the energy management strategies usable for the supervisory control of such a powertrain. The third chapter shows the performance of the implemented controller on a NEDC cycle compared with the one obtained with the original control strategy.

Modelling and predictive control techniques for building heating systems

Model predictive control (MPC) has often been referred to in literature as a potential method for more efficient control of building heating systems. Though a significant performance improvement can be achieved with an MPC strategy, the complexity introduced to the commissioning of the system is often prohibitive. Models are required which can capture the thermodynamic properties of the building with sufficient accuracy for meaningful predictions to be made. Furthermore, a large number of tuning weights may need to be determined to achieve a desired performance. For MPC to become a practicable alternative, these issues must be addressed. Acknowledging the impact of the external environment as well as the interaction of occupants on the thermal behaviour of the building, in this work, techniques have been developed for deriving building models from data in which large, unmeasured disturbances are present. A spatio-temporal filtering process was introduced to determine estimates of the disturbances from measured data, which were then incorporated with metaheuristic search techniques to derive high-order simulation models, capable of replicating the thermal dynamics of a building. While a high-order simulation model allowed for control strategies to be analysed and compared, low-order models were required for use within the MPC strategy itself. The disturbance estimation techniques were adapted for use with system-identification methods to derive such models. MPC formulations were then derived to enable a more straightforward commissioning process and implemented in a validated simulation platform. A prioritised-objective strategy was developed which allowed for the tuning parameters typically associated with an MPC cost function to be omitted from the formulation by separation of the conflicting requirements of comfort satisfaction and energy reduction within a lexicographic framework. The improved ability of the formulation to be set-up and reconfigured in faulted conditions was shown.

ARIA 2016: Care pathways implementing emerging technologies for predictive medicine in rhinitis and asthma across the life cycle

The Allergic Rhinitis and its Impact on Asthma (ARIA) initiative commenced during a World Health Organization workshop in 1999. The initial goals were (1) to propose a new allergic rhinitis classification, (2) to promote the concept of multi-morbidity in asthma and rhinitis and (3) to develop guidelines with all stakeholders that could be used globally for all countries and populations. ARIA—disseminated and implemented in over 70 countries globally—is now focusing on the implementation of emerging technologies for individualized and predictive medicine. MASK [MACVIA (Contre les Maladies Chroniques pour un Vieillissement Actif)-ARIA Sentinel NetworK] uses mobile technology to develop care pathways for the management of rhinitis and asthma by a multi-disciplinary group and by patients themselves. An app (Android and iOS) is available in 20 countries and 15 languages. It uses a visual analogue scale to assess symptom control and work productivity as well as a clinical decision support system. It is associated with an inter-operable tablet for physicians and other health care professionals. The scaling up strategy uses the recommendations of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing. The aim of the novel ARIA approach is to provide an active and healthy life to rhinitis sufferers, whatever their age, sex or socio-economic status, in order to reduce health and social inequalities incurred by the disease.

Challenges in imaging and predictive modeling of rhizosphere processes

Background Plant-soil interaction is central to human food production and ecosystem function. Thus, it is essential to not only understand, but also to develop predictive mathematical models which can be used to assess how climate and soil management practices will affect these interactions. Scope In this paper we review the current developments in structural and chemical imaging of rhizosphere processes within the context of multiscale mathematical image based modeling. We outline areas that need more research and areas which would benefit from more detailed understanding. Conclusions We conclude that the combination of structural and chemical imaging with modeling is an incredibly powerful tool which is fundamental for understanding how plant roots interact with soil. We emphasize the need for more researchers to be attracted to this area that is so fertile for future discoveries. Finally, model building must go hand in hand with experiments. In particular, there is a real need to integrate rhizosphere structural and chemical imaging with modeling for better understanding of the rhizosphere processes leading to models which explicitly account for pore scale processes.

Covariant Spectator Theory of heavy–light and heavy mesons and the predictive power of covariant interaction kernels

The Covariant Spectator Theory (CST) is used to calculate the mass spectrum and vertex functions of heavy–light and heavy mesons in Minkowski space. The covariant kernel contains Lorentz scalar, pseudoscalar, and vector contributions. The numerical calculations are performed in momentum space, where special care is taken to treat the strong singularities present in the confining kernel. The observed meson spectrum is very well reproduced after fitting a small number of model parameters. Remarkably, a fit to a few pseudoscalar meson states only, which are insensitive to spin–orbit and tensor forces and do not allow to separate the spin–spin from the central interaction, leads to essentially the same model parameters as a more general fit. This demonstrates that the covariance of the chosen interaction kernel is responsible for the very accurate prediction of the spin-dependent quark–antiquark interactions.

Modelling and Optimization of Energy Management Strategies for Hybrid Vehicles

In the last decades the automotive sector has seen a technological revolution, due mainly to the more restrictive regulation, the newly introduced technologies and, as last, to the poor resources of fossil fuels remaining on Earth. Promising solution in vehicles’ propulsion are represented by alternative architectures and energy sources, for example fuel-cells and pure electric vehicles. The automotive transition to new and green vehicles is passing through the development of hybrid vehicles, that usually combine positive aspects of each technology. To fully exploit the powerful of hybrid vehicles, however, it is important to manage the powertrain’s degrees of freedom in the smartest way possible, otherwise hybridization would be worthless. To this aim, this dissertation is focused on the development of energy management strategies and predictive control functions. Such algorithms have the goal of increasing the powertrain overall efficiency and contextually increasing the driver safety. Such control algorithms have been applied to an axle-split Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle with a complex architecture that allows more than one driving modes, including the pure electric one. The different energy management strategies investigated are mainly three: the vehicle baseline heuristic controller, in the following mentioned as rule-based controller, a sub-optimal controller that can include also predictive functionalities, referred to as Equivalent Consumption Minimization Strategy, and a vehicle global optimum control technique, called Dynamic Programming, also including the high-voltage battery thermal management. During this project, different modelling approaches have been applied to the powertrain, including Hardware-in-the-loop, and diverse powertrain high-level controllers have been developed and implemented, increasing at each step their complexity. It has been proven the potential of using sophisticated powertrain control techniques, and that the gainable benefits in terms of fuel economy are largely influenced by the chose energy management strategy, even considering the powerful vehicle investigated.