971 resultados para Predictive Mean Squared Efficiency
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1. Chrysophtharta bimaculata is a native chrysomelid species that can cause chronic defoliation of plantation and regrowth Eucalyptus forests in Tasmania, Australia. Knowledge of the dispersion pattern of C. bimaculata was needed in order to assess the efficiency of an integrated pest management (IPM) programme currently used for its control. 2. Using data from yellow flight traps, local populations of C. bimaculata adults were monitored over a season at spatial scales relevant to commercial forestry: within a 50-ha operational management unit (a forestry 'coupe') and between coupes. In addition, oviposition was monitored over a season at a subset of the between-coupe sites. 3. Dispersion indices (Taylor's Power Law and Iwao's Mean Crowding regression method) demonstrated that C. bimaculata adults were spatially aggregated within and between coupes, although the number of egg-batches laid at the between-coupe scale was uniform. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that trap-catches at the within-coupe level were similar (positively autocorrelated) to a radius distance of approximately 110 m, and then dissimilar (negatively autocorrelated) at approximately 250 m. At the between-coupe scale, no repeatable spatial autocorrelation patterns were observed. 4. For any individual site, rapid changes in beetle density were observed to be associated with loosely aggregated flights of beetles into and out of that site. Peak adult catches (> the weekly mean plus standard deviation trap-catch) for a site occurred for a period of 2.0 +/- 0.22 weeks at a time (n = 37), with normally only one or two peaks per site per season. Peak oviposition events for a site occurred on average 1.4 +/- 0.11 times per season and lasted 1.5 +/- 0.12 weeks. 5. Analysis of an extensive data set (n = 417) demonstrated that adult abundance at a site was positively correlated with egg density, but negatively correlated with tree damage (caused by conspecifics) and the presence of conspecific larvae. There was no relationship between adult abundance and a visual estimate of the amount of young foliage on trees. 6. Adults of C. bimaculata are show n to occur in relatively small, mobile aggregations. This means that pest surveys must be both regular (less than 2 weeks apart) and intensive (with sampling points no more than 150 m apart) if beetle populations are to be monitored with confidence. Further refinement of the current IPM strategy must recognize the problems posed by this temporal and spatial patchiness, particularly with regard to the use of biological insecticides, such as Bacillus thuringiensis, for which only a very short operational window exists.
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Background Accurate diagnosis of portal vein (PV) stenosis by real-time and color Doppler US (CD-US) after segmental liver transplantation in children can decrease morbidity by avoiding unnecessary biopsy, PV hypertension, thrombosis and loss of the graft. Objective To evaluate CD-US parameters for the prediction of PV stenosis after segmental liver transplantation in children. Materials and methods We retrospectively reviewed 61 CD-US examinations measuring the diameter at the PV anastomosis, velocities at the anastomosis (PV1) and in the segment proximal to the anastomosis (PV2), and the PV1/PV2 velocity ratio. The study group comprised patients with stenosis confirmed by angiography and the control group comprised patients with a good clinical outcome. Results PV stenosis was seen in 12 CD-US examinations. The mean PV diameter was smaller in the study group (2.6 mm versus 5.7 mm) and a PV diameter of < 3.5 mm was highly predictive of stenosis (sensitivity 100%, specificity 91.8%). Conclusion A PV diameter of < 3.5 mm is a highly predictive CD-US parameter for the detection of hemodynamically significant stenosis on angiography.
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Specific leaf nitrogen (SLN, g/m(2)) is known to affect radiation use efficiency (RUE, g/MJ) in different crops, However, this association and importance have not been well established over a range of different nitrogen regimes for held-grown sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.). An experiment was conducted to investigate different combinations and rates of applied nitrogen on SLN, RUE, and growth of sunflower, A fully irrigated crop was sown on an alluvial-prairie soil (Fluventic Haplustoll) and treated with five combinations of applied nitrogen, Greater nitrogen increased biomass, grain number, and yield, but did not affect harvest index energy-corrected for oil (0.4) or canopy extinction coefficient (0.88), Decreases in biomass accumulation under low nitrogen treatments were associated,vith reductions in leaf area index (LAI) and light interception, When SLN and RUE were examined together, both were less in the anthesis to physiological maturity period, but relatively stable between bud visible and anthesis, However, the effects of canopy SLN on RUE were confounded by high SLN in the top of the canopy and the crop maintaining SLN by reducing LAI, Measurements of leaf CO2 assimilation and theoretical analyses of RUE supported that RUE was related to SLN, The major effect of nitrogen on early growth of sunflower was mediated by leaf area and the distribution of SLN in the canopy rather than direct effects of canopy SLN on RUE alone. Greater responses of RUE to SLN are more evident later in growth, and may be related to the demand of nitrogen by the grain.
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The level of incident radiation and the proportion of radiation that is diffuse affects radiation use efficiency (RUE) in crops, However, the degree of this effect, and its importance to growth and yield of sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) have not been established. A field experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of radiation environment on RUE, growth, and yield of sunflower. A fully irrigated crop was sown on an alluvial-prairie soil (Fluventic Haplustoll) and was exposed to three distinct radiation environments. In two treatments, the level of incident radiation was reduced by 14 and 20% by suspending tao different types of polyethylene plastic films well above the crop. In addition to the reductions in incident radiation, the proportion of radiation that was diffuse was increased by about 14% in these treatments. Lower incident radiation and increased proportion of diffuse radiation had no effect on total biomass, phenology, leaf area, and the canopy light extinction coefficient (k = 0.89). However, yield was reduced in shaded treatments due to smaller grain size and lower harvest index. Although crop RUE measured over the entire crop cycle (1.25 g/MJ) did not differ significantly among treatments, there was a trend where RUE compensated for less intercepted incident radiation. Theoretical derivations of the response of RUE to different levels of incident radiation supported this finding. Shaded sunflower crops have the ability to produce biomass similar to unshaded crops by increasing RUE, but have lower harvest indices.
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Background. The am of this study was to determine the predictive value for malignancy of microcalcifications determined by ultrasonography in thyroid nodules. Methods. One hundred seventy-seven nodules were prospectively studied by ultrasonography and compared with their fine-needle aspirative biopsy. The association between the presence and type of calcification and cytologic findings was verified through the chi-square test or likelihood ratio. Results. Thirty nodules showed calcification, of which 17 had fine calcifications, 3 had fine and gross calcifications, and 10 had only coarse calcification. Seven (41.18%) of 17 fine calcified nodules were malignant on cytology, 8 (47.06%) were benign, 1 (5,88%) was indeterminate, and 1 was suspect for malignancy. We found statistical significance between the presence of fine calcifications and malignancy (p =.001) and, in the 13 malignant nodule group, 8 (61.50%) had fine calcifications. Conclusion. This study suggests that microcalcifications were highly specific for malignancy and were present in 61% of the malignant nodules. (c) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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This article examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. The standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methodology is replaced by a probit model. This circumvents potential econometric problems, and allows us to implement more sophisticated betting strategies where bets are placed only when there is a relatively high probability of success. In-sample tests indicate that probit-based betting strategies generate statistically significant profits. Whereas the profitability of a number of these betting strategies is confirmed by out-of-sample testing, there is some inconsistency among the remaining out-of-sample predictions. Our results also suggest that widely documented inefficiencies in this market tend to dissipate over time.
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Many lines of evidence indicate that theta rhythm, a prominent neural oscillatory mode found in the mammalian hippocampus, plays a key role in the acquisition, processing, and retrieval of memories. However, a predictive neurophysiological feature of the baseline theta rhythm that correlates with the learning rate across different animals has yet to be identified. Here we show that the mean theta rhythm speed observed during baseline periods of immobility has a strong positive correlation with the rate at which rats learn an operant task. This relationship is observed across rats, during both quiet waking (r=0.82; p<0.01) and paradoxical sleep (r=0.83; p<0.01), suggesting that the basal theta frequency relates to basic neurological processes that are important in the acquisition of operant behavior. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Objectives. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between variables of physical assessment - muscular strength, flexibility and dynamic balance - with pain, pain threshold, and fibromyalgia symptoms (FM). Methods. Our sample consists of 55 women, with age ranging from 30 to 55 years (mean of 46.5, (standard deviation, SD=6.6)), mean body mass index (BMI) of 28.7(3.8) and diagnosed for FM according to the American College of Rheumatology criteria. Pain intensity was measured using a visual analogue scale (VAS) and pain threshold (PT) using Fisher`s dolorimeter. FM symptoms were assessed by the Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQ); flexibility by the third finger to floor test (3FF); the muscular strength index (MSI) by the maximum volunteer isometric contraction at flexion and extension of right knee and elbow using a force transducer, dynamic balance by the time to get up and go (TUG) test and the functional reach test (FRT). Data were analysed using Pearson`s correlation, as well as simple and multivariate regression tests, with significance level of 5%. Results. PT and FIQ were weakly but significantly correlated with the TUG, MSI and 3FF as well as VAS with the TUG and MSI (p<0.05). VAS, PT and FIQ was not correlated with FRT. Simple regression suggests that, alone, TUG, FR, MSI and 3FF are low predictors of VAS, PT and FIQ. For the VAS, the best predictive model includes TUG and MSI, explaining 12.6% of pain. variability. For TP and total symptoms, as obtained by the FIQ, most predictive model includes 3FF and MSI, which respectively respond by 30% and 21% of the variability. Conclusion. Muscular strength, flexibility and balance are associated with pain, pain threshold, and symptoms in FM patients.
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Background: Familial Adenomatous Polyposis (FAP) is a hereditary disorder with multiple colorectal polyps that exhibit an almost inevitable risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) in untreated patients. Goals: To evaluate clinical features related to CRC risk at diagnosis. Material and methods: Charts from 88 patients were reviewed to collect information regarding age, family history, symptoms, polyposis severity and association with CRC. Results: 41 men (46.6%) and 47 women (53.4%) were assisted. CRC was detected in 53 patients (60.2%), with a frequency of 9.1% under 20 years, 58% between 21-40 and 85% over 41 years of age. Average age of patients without CRC was lower at treatment (29.5 vs. 40.0 years; p=0.001). Family history was reported by 58 patients (65.9%), whose average age did not differ from those who didn`t report it (33.4 vs. 34.4; p=0.17). Asymptomatic patients comprised 10.2% of the total; in this group, CRC incidence was much lower when compared to those presenting symptoms (1.1% vs. 65.8%; p=0.001). Patients without CRC presented a shorter length of symptoms (15.2 vs. 26.4 months; p=0.03) and less frequent weight loss (11.4% vs. 33.9%; p=0.01). At colonoscopy, polyposis was classified as attenuated in 12 patients (14.3%), who presented greater average age (48.2 vs. 33.3 years; p=0.02) and equal CRC incidence (58.3% vs. 58.3%; p=0.6) when compared to those with classic polyposis. Conclusions: The risk of CRC in FAP patients 1) increases significantly after the second decade; 2) is associated with higher age, weight loss, presence and duration of simptomatology; 3) is similar in patients with attenuated or classic phenotype. (C) 2010 AEC. Published by Elsevier Espana, S.L. All rights reserved.
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BACKGROUND: Early gastric cancer (EGC) is defined as adenocarcinoma limited to the mucosa or submucosa regardless of lymph node involvement. Local EGC recurrence rates have been described ill Lip to 6% of cases. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate predictive factors for incomplete resection and local recurrence of EGC treated by endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) that was followed up for at least one year. METHODS: From June 1994 to December 2005, 46 patients with EGC underwent EMR. Possible predictive factors for incomplete endoscopic resection and local recurrence were identified by medical chart analysis. Demographic, endoscopic and histopathological data were retrospectively evaluated. EMR was considered complete or incomplete. Patients from the complete resection group were divided into subgroups (with and without local EGC recurrence). RESULTS: Complete resection was possible in 36 cases (76.6%). Predictive factors for incomplete resection were turnout location (P=0.035), histological type (P=0.021), lesion size (P=0.022) and number of resected fragments (P=0.013). On multivariate analysis, undifferentiated histological type (OR 0.8; 95% Cl 0.036 to 0.897) and number of resected fragments (OR 7.34; 95% Cl 1.266 to 42.629) were independent predictive factors for incomplete resection. In the complete resection group, a larger lesion size was associated with a higher the number of resected fragments (P=0.018). Local recurrence occurred in nine cases (25%). Use of the cap technique was the only predictive factor for local recurrence in five of seven cases (71.4%) (P=0.006). CONCLUSIONS: A larger lesion size was associated with a higher number of resected fragments. Undifferentiated adenocarcinoma and piecemeal resection were predictive factors for incomplete resection. Technique type was a predictive factor for local EGC recurrence.
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Background & aims: Severe obesity imposes physical limitations to body composition assessment. Our aim was to compare body fat (BF) estimations of severely obese patients obtained by bioelectrical impedance (BIA) and air displacement plethysmography (ADP) for development of new equations for BF prediction. Methods: Severely obese subjects (83 female/36 mate, mean age = 41.6 +/- 11.6 years) had BF estimated by BIA and ADP. The agreement of the data was evaluated using Bland-Altman`s graphic and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). A multivariate regression analysis was performed to develop and validate new predictive equations. Results: BF estimations from BIA (64.8 +/- 15 kg) and ADP (65.6 +/- 16.4 kg) did not differ (p > 0.05, with good accuracy, precision, and CCC), but the Bland- Altman graphic showed a wide Limit of agreement (- 10.4; 8.8). The standard BIA equation overestimated BF in women (-1.3 kg) and underestimated BF in men (5.6 kg; p < 0.05). Two BF new predictive equations were generated after BIA measurement, which predicted BF with higher accuracy, precision, CCC, and limits of agreement than the standard BIA equation. Conclusions: Standard BIA equations were inadequate for estimating BF in severely obese patients. Equations developed especially for this population provide more accurate BF assessment. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.
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Purpose: The number of retrieved lymph nodes during radical surgery has been considered of great importance to ensure adequate staging and radical resection. However, this finding may not be applicable after neoadjuvant therapy in which, not only is there a decrease in lymph nodes recovered, but also a subgroup of patients with absence of lymph nodes in the resected specimen. Methods: Patients with absence of lymph nodes were compared with patients with ypN0 disease and patients with ypN+ disease. Results: Thirty-two patients (11 percent) had absence of lymph nodes, 171 patients (61 percent) had ypN0 disease, and 78 patients (28 percent) had ypN+ disease. Patients with absence of lymph nodes had significantly lower ypT status (ypT0-1, 40 vs. 13 percent; P < 0.001) and decreased risk of perineural invasion (6 vs. 21 percent; P = 0.04) compared with ypN0 patients. Five-year disease-free survival (74 percent) was similar to patients with ypN0 (59 percent; P = 0.2), and both were significantly better than patients with ypN+ disease (30 percent; P < 0.001). Conclusions: Absence of lymph nodes retrieved from the resected specimen is associated with favorable pathologic features (ypT and perineural invasion status) and good disease-free survival rates. In this setting, absence of retrieved lymph nodes may reflect improved response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy rather than inappropriate or suboptimal oncologic radicality.
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Tinnitus is a symptom present in approximately 15% of the world population. Most patients are between 40 and 80 years of age; the prevalence above 60 reaches 33%. About 20% have moderate to severe impact in the quality of life but the factors associated with the tinnitus annoyance are not completely known. Aim: The objective of this study is to evaluate the relationship between age, gender and hearing loss on tinnitus annoyance. Materials and methods: 68 patients were evaluated at the tinnitus center at our hospital, from March 2007 to march 2008, with a detailed interview, complete otolaryngological examination, the Portuguese version of the Tinnitus Handicap Inventory and pure tone audiometry. Results: Age varied from 24 to 83 (mean=59); the mean THI value was 39 (females: 36; males: 44). THI grades were: slight: 32.3%; mild: 19.1%; moderate: 20.6%; severe: 13.2% and catastrophic: 14.7%. No significant correlation was found between gender (p=0.30), age (p=0.77) hearing loss (p>0.05 for all averages analyzed) and tinnitus severity. Conclusion: Gender, age and hearing loss do not influence tinnitus annoyance, using the THI.
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Objective: To determine intraocular pressure (IOP)-dependent and IOP-independent variables associated with visual field (VF) progression in treated glaucoma. Design: Retrospective cohort of the Glaucoma Progression Study. Methods: Consecutive, treated glaucoma patients with repeatable VF loss who had 8 or more VF examinations of either eye, using the Swedish Interactive Threshold Algorithm (24-2 SITA-Standard, Humphrey Field Analyzer II; Carl Zeiss Meditec, Inc, Dublin, California), during the period between January 1999 and September 2009 were included. Visual field progression was evaluated using automated pointwise linear regression. Evaluated data included age, sex, race, central corneal thickness, baseline VF mean deviation, mean follow-up IOP, peak IOP, IOP fluctuation, a detected disc hemorrhage, and presence of beta-zone parapapillary atrophy. Results: We selected 587 eyes of 587 patients (mean [SD] age, 64.9 [13.0] years). The mean (SD) number of VFs was 11.1 (3.0), spanning a mean (SD) of 6.4 (1.7) years. In the univariable model, older age (odds ratio [OR], 1.19 per decade; P = .01), baseline diagnosis of exfoliation syndrome (OR, 1.79; P = .01), decreased central corneal thickness (OR, 1.38 per 40 mu m thinner; P < .01), a detected disc hemorrhage (OR, 2.31; P < .01), presence of beta-zone parapapillary atrophy (OR, 2.17; P < .01), and all IOP parameters (mean follow-up, peak, and fluctuation; P < .01) were associated with increased risk of VF progression. In the multivariable model, peak IOP (OR, 1.13; P < .01), thinner central corneal thickness (OR, 1.45 per 40 mu m thinner; P < .01), a detected disc hemorrhage (OR, 2.59; P < .01), and presence of beta-zone parapapillary atrophy (OR, 2.38; P < .01) were associated with VF progression. Conclusions: IOP-dependent and IOP-independent risk factors affect disease progression in treated glaucoma. Peak IOP is a better predictor of progression than is IOP mean or fluctuation.
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Objectives This study was designed to evaluate bowel diameter as a predictor of adverse outcome in isolated fetal gastroschisis Methods Retrospective study involving 94 singleton pregnancies Ultrasound measurements of herniated bowel transverse diameter (BTD) were performed up to 3 weeks before delivery Adverse outcome was intrauterine/neonatal death and/or bowel complications Results Last BTD was recorded at 35 6 +/- 1 6 weeks and mean interval to delivery was 6 2 +/- 5 0 days Intrauterine/neonatal death occurred in 10 (10 6%) cases, bowel complications were observed in 8 (8 5%) BTD >= 15, >= 20, >= 25, and >= 30 mm were found in 87, 46, 13, and 4% of pregnancies with a favorable outcome. respectively BTD >= 25 mm sensitivity was 38%. and positive and negative predictive values were 38 and 87% For BTD >= 30 mm. the values were 19, 50, and 85% Observed/expected BTD ROC curve showed an area of 0 67, best cut-off value at 1 39, prediction values were similar to those for BTD >= 25 mm Bowel dilatation was also significantly associated with lower rate of primary surgical closure. longer period to full oral feeding, and prolonged hospital stay Conclusions Bowel dilatation demonstrated up to 3 weeks before delivery is a predictor of intestinal complications and is associated with lower late of primary surgical closure, longer period to achieve full oral feeding. and hospital stay Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd