Trial-of-antibiotic algorithm for the diagnosis of tuberculosis in a district hospital in a developing country with high HIV prevalence

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate a diagnostic algorithm for pulmonary tuberculosis based on smear microscopy and objective response to trial of antibiotics. SETTING: Adult medical wards, Hlabisa Hospital, South Africa, 1996-1997. METHODS: Adults with chronic chest symptoms and abnormal chest X-ray had sputum examined for Ziehl-Neelsen stained acid-fast bacilli by light microscopy. Those with negative smears were treated with amoxycillin for 5 days and assessed. Those who had not improved were treated with erythromycin for 5 days and reassessed. Response was compared with mycobacterial culture. RESULTS: Of 280 suspects who completed the diagnostic pathway, 160 (57%) had a positive smear, 46 (17%) responded to amoxycillin, 34 (12%) responded to erythromycin and 40 (14%) were treated as smear-negative tuberculosis. The sensitivity (89%) and specificity (84%) of the full algorithm for culture-positive tuberculosis were high. However, 11 patients (positive predictive value [PPV] 95%) were incorrectly diagnosed with tuberculosis, and 24 cases of tuberculosis (negative predictive value [NPV] 70%) were not identified. NPV improved to 75% when anaemia was included as a predictor. Algorithm performance was independent of human immunodeficiency virus status. CONCLUSION: Sputum smear microscopy plus trial of antibiotic algorithm among a selected group of tuberculosis suspects may increase diagnostic accuracy in district hospitals in developing countries.

Multiple conformational epitopes are recognized by natural and induced immunity to the E7 protein of human papilloma virus type 16 in man

The reactivity of sera from patients with cervical cancer with the E7 protein of human papilloma virus type 16 (HPV16) was estimated using a novel non-radioactive immunoprecipitation assay and four established protein-and peptide-based immunoassays. Six of 14 sera from patients with cervical cancer and 1 of 10 sera from healthy laboratory staff showed repeated reactivity with E7 in at least one assay. Four of the 7 reactive sera were consistently reactive in more than one assay, but only one was reactive in all four assays. Following immunization with E7, 2 of 5 patients with cervical cancer had increased E7-specific reactivity, measurable in one or more assays. No single assay was particularly sensitive for E7 reactivity, or predictive of cervical cancer. Mapping of E7 reactivity to specific E7 peptides was unsuccessful, suggesting that natural or induced E7 reactivity in human serum is commonly directed to conformational epitopes of E7, These results suggest that each assay employed with is study measures a different aspect of E7 reactivity, and that various reactivities to E7 may manifest following HPV infection or immunization. This finding is of significance for monitoring of E7 immunotherapy and for serological screening for cervical cancer. Copyright (C) 2000 S.Karger, AG. Basel.

Suicidal ideation and suicide attempts as predictors of mental health service use

Objective: To examine the extent to which suicidal ideation and suicide attempts are predictive of service use. Design and setting: The National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing considered service utilisation in relation to self-reported mental health problems. Service utilisation was inquired of in relation to hospital-based care (including both specialist mental health and general care settings), as well as consultations with a range of health professionals (both specialist and non-specialist mental health professionals, including psychiatrists, psychologists and general practitioners) on an outpatient basis. Participants: Secondary analysis of self-report data from 10 641 randomly selected Australian adults who participated in the National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing in 1997. The key predictor variables were reported suicidal ideation and suicide attempts over the past 12 months. Main outcome measures: Use of services for mental health problems (past 12 months). Results: When considered in isolation, individuals reporting suicidal ideation were more likely to make use of at least one type of service for mental health problems than non-suicidal individuals (OR, 17.3; 95% Cl, 13.2-22.6), and individuals reporting suicide attempts were even more likely to do so (OR, 32.3; 95% CI, 9.0-115.4). In the case of suicidal ideation, this effect remained significant after controlling for a range of potential confounders. For suicide attempts, the effect of mental health service use was no longer significant after other variables were taken into account. Conclusions: Suicidal individuals are likely to make use of services, and a high proportion of suicides may be preventable through appropriate healthcare system responses.

Prior calcium channel blockade and short-term survival following acute myocardial infarction

There is concern over the safety of calcium channel blockers (CCBs) in acute coronary disease. We sought to determine if patients taking calcium channel blockers (CCBs) at the time of admission with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) had a higher case-fatality compared with those taking beta-blockers or neither medication. Clinical and drug treatment variables at the time of hospital admission predictive of survival at 28 days were examined in a community-based registry of patients aged under 65 years admitted to hospital for suspected AMI in Perth, Australia, between 1984 and 1993. Among 7766 patients, 1291 (16.6%) were taking a CCB and 1259 (16.2%) a betablocker alone at hospital admission. Patients taking CCBs had a worse clinical profile than those taking a beta-blocker alone or neither drug (control group), and a higher unadjusted 28-day mortality (17.6% versus 9.3% and 11.1% respectively, both P < 0.001). There was no significant heterogeneity with respect to mortality between nifedipine, diltiazem, or verapamil when used alone, or with a beta-blocker. After adjustment for factors predictive of death at 28 days, patients taking a CCB were found not to have an excess chance of death compared with the control group (odds ratio [OR] 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI]; 0.87, 1.30), whereas those taking a beta-blocker alone had a lower odds of death (OR 0.75, 95% CI; 0.59, 0.94). These results indicate that established calcium channel blockade is not associated with an excess risk of death following AMI once other differences between patients are taken into account, but neither does it have the survival advantage seen with prior beta-blocker therapy.

Prediction of promiscuous peptides that bind HLA class I molecules

Promiscuous T-cell epitopes make ideal targets for vaccine development. We report here a computational system, multipred, for the prediction of peptide binding to the HLA-A2 supertype. It combines a novel representation of peptide/MHC interactions with a hidden Markov model as the prediction algorithm. multipred is both sensitive and specific, and demonstrates high accuracy of peptide-binding predictions for HLA-A*0201, *0204, and *0205 alleles, good accuracy for *0206 allele, and marginal accuracy for *0203 allele. multipred replaces earlier requirements for individual prediction models for each HLA allelic variant and simplifies computational aspects of peptide-binding prediction. Preliminary testing indicates that multipred can predict peptide binding to HLA-A2 supertype molecules with high accuracy, including those allelic variants for which no experimental binding data are currently available.

Are we too busy to volunteer? The relationship between time and volunteering using the 1997 ABS Time Use Data

Time availability is a key concept in relation to volunteering, leading to organisations and governments targeting those outside paid work as a potential source of volunteers. It may be that factors such as a growth in female participation in the labour market and an increase in work hours will lead to more people saying they are simply too busy to volunteer This paper discusses how social and economic change, such as changing work patterns, are impacting on time availability. Using the 1997 ABS Time Use data, it identifies a predictive model of spare time by looking at demographic, life stage and employment related variables. Results confirm that those outside paid work, particularly the young, males and those without partners or children, are the groups most likely to have time to spare. These groups do not currently report high rates of volunteering. The paper concludes by questioning the premise that people will volunteer simply because they have time to spare. This is just one component of a range of motivations and factors that influence the decision to volunteer.

Methods for prediction of peptide binding to MHC molecules: A comparative study

Background: A variety of methods for prediction of peptide binding to major histocompatibility complex (MHC) have been proposed. These methods are based on binding motifs, binding matrices, hidden Markov models (HMM), or artificial neural networks (ANN). There has been little prior work on the comparative analysis of these methods. Materials and Methods: We performed a comparison of the performance of six methods applied to the prediction of two human MHC class I molecules, including binding matrices and motifs, ANNs, and HMMs. Results: The selection of the optimal prediction method depends on the amount of available data (the number of peptides of known binding affinity to the MHC molecule of interest), the biases in the data set and the intended purpose of the prediction (screening of a single protein versus mass screening). When little or no peptide data are available, binding motifs are the most useful alternative to random guessing or use of a complete overlapping set of peptides for selection of candidate binders. As the number of known peptide binders increases, binding matrices and HMM become more useful predictors. ANN and HMM are the predictive methods of choice for MHC alleles with more than 100 known binding peptides. Conclusion: The ability of bioinformatic methods to reliably predict MHC binding peptides, and thereby potential T-cell epitopes, has major implications for clinical immunology, particularly in the area of vaccine design.

Stereotypic explanatory bias: Implicit stereotyping as a predictor of discrimination

Two experiments examined whether a measure of implicit stereotyping based on the tendency to explain Black stereotype-incongruent events more often than Black stereotype-congruent events (Stereotypic Explanatory Bias or SEB) is predictive of behavior toward a partner in an interracial interaction. In Experiment I SEB predicted White males' choice to ask stereotypic questions of a Black female (but not a White male or White female) in an interview. In Experiment 2 the type of explanation (internal or external attribution) made for stereotype-inconsistency was examined. Results showed that White participants who made internal attributions for Black stereotype-incongruent behavior were rated more positively and those who made external attributions were rated more negatively by a Black male confederate. These results point to the potential of implicit stereotyping as an important predictor of behavior in an interracial interaction. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Long-term survival of women with breast cancer in New South Wales

Several long-term studies of breast cancer survival have shown continued excess mortality from breast cancer up to 20-40 years following treatment. The purpose of this report was to investigate temporal trends in long-term survival from breast cancer in all New South Wales (NSW) women. Breast cancer cases incident in 1972-1996 (54,228) were derived from the NSW Central Cancer Registry a population-based registry which began in 1972. All cases of breast cancer not known to be dead were matched against death records. The expected survival for NSW women was derived from published annual life tables. Relative survival analysis compared the survival of cancer cases with the age, sex and period matched mortality of the total population. Cases were considered alive at the end of 1996, except when known to be dead. Proportional hazards regression was employed to model survival on age, period and degree of spread at diagnosis. Survival at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years of follow-up was 76 per cent, 65 per cent, 60 per cent, 57 per cent and 56 per cent. The annual hazard rate for excess mortality was 4.3 per cent in year 1, maximal at 6.5 per cent in year 3, declining to 4.7 per cent in year 5, 2.7 per cent in year 10, 1.4 per cent in year 15, 1.0 per cent for years 16-20, and 0.4 per cent for years 20-25 of follow-up. Relative survival was highest in 40-49 year-olds. Cases diagnosed most recently (1992-1996) had the highest survival, compared with cases diagnosed in previous periods. Five-year survival improved over time, especially from the late 1980s for women in the screening age group (50-69 years). Survival was highest for those with localised cancer at diagnosis: 88.4 per cent, 79.1 per cent, 74.6 per cent, 72.7 per cent and 72.8 per cent at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years follow-up (excluding those aged greater than or equal to 70 years). There was no significant difference between the survival of the breast cancer cases and the general population at 20-25 years follow-up. Degree of spread was less predictive of survival 5-20 years after diagnosis, compared with 0-5 years after diagnosis, and was not significant at 20-25 years of follow-up. Relative survival from breast cancer in NSW women continues to decrease to 25 years after diagnosis, but there is little excess mortality after 15 years follow-up, especially for those with localised cancer at diagnosis, and the minimal excess mortality at 20-25 years of follow-up is not statistically significant. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biodiversity: bridging the gap between condition and conservation

The aim of this study is to create a two-tiered assessment combining restoration and conservation, both needed for biodiversity management. The first tier of this approach assesses the condition of a site using a standard bioassessment method, AUSRIVAS, to determine whether significant loss of biodiversity has occurred because of human activity. The second tier assesses the conservation value of sites that were determined to be unimpacted in the first step against a reference database. This ensures maximum complementarity without having to set a priori target areas. Using the reference database, we assign site-specific and comparable coefficients for both restoration (Observed/Expected taxa with > 50% probability of occurrence) and conservation values (O/E taxa with < 50%, rare taxa). In a trial on 75 sites on rivers around Sydney, NSW, Australia we were able to identify three regions: (1) an area that may need restoration; (2) an area that had a high conservation value and; (3) a region that was identified as having significant biodiversity loss but with high potential to respond to rehabilitation and become a biodiversity hotspot. These examples highlight the use of the new framework as a comprehensive system for biodiversity assessment.

Predicting energy requirements in the clinical setting: Are current methods evidence based?

Estimating energy requirements is necessary in clinical practice when indirect calorimetry is impractical. This paper systematically reviews current methods for estimating energy requirements. Conclusions include: there is discrepancy between the characteristics of populations upon which predictive equations are based and current populations; tools are not well understood, and patient care can be compromised by inappropriate application of the tools. Data comparing tools and methods are presented and issues for practitioners are discussed. (C) 2003 International Life Sciences Institute.

Detecting sugarcane 'orange rust' disease using EO-1 Hyperion hyperspectral imagery

This Letter evaluates several narrow-band indices from EO-1 Hyperion imagery in discriminating sugarcane areas affected by 'orange rust' ( Puccinia kuehnii ) disease. Forty spectral vegetation indices (SVIs), focusing on bands related to leaf pigments, leaf internal structure, and leaf water content, were generated from an image acquired over Mackay, Queensland, Australia. Discriminant function analysis was used to select an optimum set of indices based on their correlations with the discriminant function. The predictive ability of each index was also assessed based on the accuracy of classification. Results demonstrated that Hyperion imagery can be used to detect orange rust disease in sugarcane crops. While some indices that only used visible near-infrared (VNIR) bands (e.g. SIPI and R800/R680) offer separability, the combination of VNIR bands with the moisture-sensitive band (1660 nm) yielded increased separability of rust-affected areas. The newly formulated 'Disease-Water Stress Indices' (DWSI-1=R800/R1660; DSWI-2=R1660/R550; DWSI-5=(R800+R550)/(R1660+R680)) produced the largest correlations, indicating their superior ability to discriminate sugarcane areas affected by orange rust disease.

Image calibration to like-values in mapping shallow water quality from multitemporal data

The applicability of image calibration to like-values in mapping water quality parameters from multitemporal images is explored, Six sets of water samples were collected at satellite overpasses over Moreton Bay, Brisbane, Australia. Analysis of these samples reveals that waters in this shallow bay are mostly TSS-dominated, even though they are occasionally dominated by chlorophyll as well. Three of the images were calibrated to a reference image based on invariant targets. Predictive models constructed from the reference image were applied to estimating total suspended sediment (TSS) and Secchi depth from another image at a discrepancy of around 35 percent. Application of the predictive model for TSS concentration to another image acquired at a time of different water types resulted in a discrepancy of 152 percent. Therefore, image calibration to like-values could be used to reliably map certain water quality parameters from multitemporal TM images so long as the water type under study remains unchanged. This method is limited in that the mapped results could be rather inaccurate if the water type under study has changed considerably. Thus, the approach needs to be refined in shallow water from multitemporal satellite imagery.

Multicollinearity and financial constraint in investment decisions: a Bayesian generalized ridge regression

This paper addresses the investment decisions considering the presence of financial constraints of 373 large Brazilian firms from 1997 to 2004, using panel data. A Bayesian econometric model was used considering ridge regression for multicollinearity problems among the variables in the model. Prior distributions are assumed for the parameters, classifying the model into random or fixed effects. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters, considering normal and Student t distributions for the error and assumed that the initial values for the lagged dependent variable are not fixed, but generated by a random process. The recursive predictive density criterion was used for model comparisons. Twenty models were tested and the results indicated that multicollinearity does influence the value of the estimated parameters. Controlling for capital intensity, financial constraints are found to be more important for capital-intensive firms, probably due to their lower profitability indexes, higher fixed costs and higher degree of property diversification.

Breastfeeding duration in an Australian population: The influence of modifiable antenatal factors

Despite well-documented health benefits of breastfeeding for mothers and babies, most women discontinue breastfeeding before the recommended 12 months to 2 years. The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of modifiable antenatal variables on breastfeeding outcomes. A prospective, longitudinal study was conducted with 300 pregnant, Australian women. Questionnaires containing variables of interest were administered to women during their last trimester; infant feeding method was assessed at I week and 4 months postpartum. Intended breastfeeding duration and breastfeeding self-efficacy were identified as the most significant modifiable variables predictive of breastfeeding outcomes. Mothers who intended to breastfeed for < 6 months were 2.4 times as likely to have discontinued breastfeeding at 4 months compared to those who intended to breastfeed for > 12 months (35.7% vs 87.5%). Similarly, mothers with high breastfeeding self-efficacy were more likely to be breastfeeding compared to mothers with low self-efficacy (79.3% vs 50.0%).