Pre-Disaster Risk Management in Post-Earthquake (1999) Turkey

This paper assesses the status of pre-disaster risk management in the case of Turkey. By focusing on the period following the catastrophic August 17, 1999 earthquake, the study benefits from USAID’s Disaster Risk Management Benchmarking Tool (DRMBT). In line with the benchmarking tool, the paper covers key developments in the four components of pre-disaster risk management, namely: risk identification, risk mitigation, risk transfer and disaster preparedness. In the end, it will present three major conclusions: (i) Although post-1999 Turkey has made some important progress in the pre-disaster phase of DRM, particularly with the enactment of obligatory earthquake insurance and tightened standards for building construction, the country is far away from substantial levels of success in DRM. (ii) In recent years, local governments have had been given more authority in the realm of DRM, however, Turkey’s approach to DRM is still predominantly centralized at the expense of successful DRM practices at the local level. (iii) While the devastating 1999 earthquake has resulted in advances in the pre-disaster components of DRM; progress has been mostly in the realm of earthquakes. Turkey’s other major disasters (landslides, floods, wild fires i.e.) also require similar attention by local and central authorities.

Ecosystem Structure and Function Still Altered Two Decades After Short-Term Fertilization of a Seagrass Meadow

An oligotrophic phosphorus (P) limited seagrass ecosystem in Florida Bay was experimentally fertilized in a unique way. Perches were installed to encourage seabirds to roost and deliver an external source of nutrients via defecation. Two treatments were examined: (1) a chronic 23-year fertilization and (2) an earlier 28-month fertilization that was discontinued when the chronic treatment was initiated. Because of the low mobility of P in carbonate sediments, we hypothesized long-term changes to ecosystem structure and function in both treatments. Structural changes in the chronic treatment included a shift in the dominant seagrass species from Thalassia testudinum to Halodule wrightii, large increases in epiphytic biomass and sediment chlorophyll-a, and a decline in species richness. Functional changes included increased benthic metabolism and quantum efficiency. Initial changes in the 28-month fertilization were similar, but after 23 years of nutrient depuration T. testudinum has reestablished itself as the dominant species. However, P remains elevated in the sediment and H. wrightii has maintained a presence. Functionally the discontinued treatment remains altered. Biomass exceeds that in the chronic treatment and indices of productivity, elevated relative to control, are not different from the chronic fertilization. Cessation of nutrient loading has resulted in a superficial return to the pre-disturbance character of the community, but due to the nature of P cycles functional changes persist.

Quantifying the responses of calcareous periphyton crusts to rehydration: A microcosm study (Florida Everglades)

We examined the high-resolution temporal dynamics of recovery of dried periphyton crusts following rapid rehydration in a phosphorus (P)-limited short hydroperiod Everglades wetland. Crusts were incubated in a greenhouse in tubs containing water with no P or exogenous algae to mimic the onset of the wet season in the natural marsh when heavy downpours containing very low P flood the dry wetland. Algal and bacterial productivity were tracked for 20 days and related to compositional changes and P dynamics in the water. A portion of original crusts was also used to determine how much TP could be released if no biotic recovery occurred. Composition was volumetrically dominated by cyanobacteria (90%) containing morphotypes typical of xeric environments. Algal and bacterial production recovered immediately upon rehydration but there was a net TP loss from the crusts to the water in the first 2 days. By day 5, however, cyanobacteria and other bacteria had re-absorbed 90% of the released P. Then, water TP concentration reached a steady-state level of 6.6 μg TP/L despite water TP concentration through evaporation. Phosphomonoesterase (PMEase) activity was very high during the first day after rehydration due to the release of a large pre-existing pool of extracellular PMEase. Thereafter, the activity dropped by 90% and increased gradually from this low level. The fast recovery of desiccated crusts upon rehydration required no exogenous P or allogenous algae/bacteria additions and periphyton largely controlled P concentration in the water.

Estrutura crustal e mantélica da província Borborema através de funções do receptor e dispersão de ondas superficiais

The Borborema Province, located in northeastern Brazil, has a basement of Precambrian age and a tectonic framework structured at the Neoproterozoic (740-560 Ma). After separation between South America and Africa during the Mesozoic, a rift system was formed, giving rise to a number of marginal and inland basins in the Province. After continental breakup, episodes of volcanism and uplift characterized the evolution of the Province. Plateau uplift was initially related to magmatic underplating of mafic material at the base of the crust, perhaps related to the generation of young continental plugs (45-7 Ma) along the Macau-Queimadas Alignment (MQA), due to a small-scale convection at the continental edge. The goal of this study is to investigate the causes of intra-plate uplift and its relationship to MQA volcanism, by using broadband seismology and integrating our results with independent geophysical and geological studies in the Borborema Province. The investigation of the deep structure of the Province with broadband seismic data includes receiver functions and surface-wave dispersion tomography. Both the receiver functions and surface-wave dispersion tomography are methods that use teleseismic events and allow to develop estimates of crustal parameters such as crustal thickness, Vp/Vs ratio, and S-velocity structure. The seismograms used for the receiver function work were obtained from 52 stations in Northeast Brazil: 16 broadband stations from the RSISNE network (Rede Sismográfica do Nordeste do Brasil), and 21 short-period and 6 broadband stations from the INCT-ET network (Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia – Estudos Tectônicos). These results add signifi- cantly to previous datasets collected at individual stations in the Province, which include station RCBR (GSN - Global Seismic Network), stations CAUB and AGBL (Brazilian Lithosphere Seismic Project IAG/USP), and 6 other broadband stations that were part of the Projeto Milênio - Estudos geofísicos e tectônicos na Província Borborema/CNPq. For the surface-wave vii tomography, seismograms recorde at 22 broadband stations were utilized: 16 broadband stations from the RSISNE network and 6 broadband stations from the Milênio project. The new constraints developed in this work include: (i) estimates of crustal thickness and bulk Vp/Vs ratio for each station using receiver functions; (ii) new measurements of surfassewave group velocity, which were integrated to existing measurementes from a continental-scale tomography for South America, and (iii) S-wave velocity models (1D) at various locations in the Borborema Province, developed through the simultaneous inversion of receiver functions and surface-wave dispersion velocities. The results display S-wave velocity structure down to the base of the crust that are consistent with the presence of a 5-7.5 km thick mafic layer. The mafic layer was observed only in the southern portion of the Plateau and absent in its northern portion. Another important observation is that our models divide the plateau into a region of thin crust (northern Plateau) and a region of thick crust (southern Plateau), confirming results from independent refraction surveys and receiver function analyses. Existing models of plateau uplift, nonetheless, cannot explain all the new observations. It is proposed that during the Brazilian orogeny a layer of preexisting mafic material was delaminated, as a whole or in part, from the original Brasiliano crust. Partial delamination would have happened in the southern portion of the plateau, where independent studies found evidence of a more resistant rheology. During Mesozoic rifting, thinning of the crust around the southern Plateau would have formed the marginal basins and the Sertaneja depression, which would have included the northern part of the Plateau. In the Cenozoic, uplift of the northern Plateau would have occurred, resulting in a northern Plateau without mafic material at the base of the crust and a southern Plateau with partially delaminated mafic layer.

The existence and source of stock return predictability : Evidence from dividend, output and consumption ratios

Date of Acceptance: 13/03/2015

The existence and source of stock return predictability : Evidence from dividend, output and consumption ratios

Date of Acceptance: 13/03/2015

A review of health literacy : definitions, interpretations, and implications for policy initiatives

Peer reviewed

Determination of Biomolecular Interdomain Motions using Nuclear Magnetic Resonance

Biological macromolecules can rearrange interdomain orientations when binding to various partners. Interdomain dynamics serve as a molecular mechanism to guide the transitions between orientations. However, our understanding of interdomain dynamics is limited because a useful description of interdomain motions requires an estimate of the probabilities of interdomain conformations, increasing complexity of the problem.

Staphylococcal protein A (SpA) has five tandem protein-binding domains and four interdomain linkers. The domains enable Staphylococcus aureus to evade the host immune system by binding to multiple host proteins including antibodies. Here, I present a study of the interdomain motions of two adjacent domains in SpA. NMR spin relaxation experiments identified a 6-residue flexible interdomain linker and interdomain motions. To quantify the anisotropy of the distribution of interdomain orientations, we measured residual dipolar couplings (RDCs) from the two domains with multiple alignments. The N-terminal domain was directly aligned by a lanthanide ion and not influenced by interdomain motions, so it acted as a reference frame to achieve motional decoupling. We also applied {\it de novo} methods to extract spatial dynamic information from RDCs and represent interdomain motions as a continuous distribution on the 3D rotational space. Significant anisotropy was observed in the distribution, indicating the motion populates some interdomain orientations more than others. Statistical thermodynamic analysis of the observed orientational distribution suggests that it is among the energetically most favorable orientational distributions for binding to antibodies. Thus, the affinity is enhanced by a pre-posed distribution of interdomain orientations while maintaining the flexibility required for function.

The protocol described above can be applied to other biological systems in general. Protein molecule calmodulin and RNA molecule trans-activation response element (TAR) also have intensive interdomain motions with relative small intradomain dynamics. Their interdomain motions were studied using our method based on published RDC data. Our results were consistent with literature results in general. The differences could be due to previous studies' use of physical models, which contain assumptions about potential energy and thus introduced non-experimental information into the interpretations.

Innovation in the pharmaceutical industry: New estimates of R&D costs.

The research and development costs of 106 randomly selected new drugs were obtained from a survey of 10 pharmaceutical firms. These data were used to estimate the average pre-tax cost of new drug and biologics development. The costs of compounds abandoned during testing were linked to the costs of compounds that obtained marketing approval. The estimated average out-of-pocket cost per approved new compound is $1395 million (2013 dollars). Capitalizing out-of-pocket costs to the point of marketing approval at a real discount rate of 10.5% yields a total pre-approval cost estimate of $2558 million (2013 dollars). When compared to the results of the previous study in this series, total capitalized costs were shown to have increased at an annual rate of 8.5% above general price inflation. Adding an estimate of post-approval R&D costs increases the cost estimate to $2870 million (2013 dollars).

Carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of Selinde River, southeastern Siberian platform

Carbon isotopic data from the Selinde section in the southeastern part of the Siberian platform area are correlated with the reference isotopic profile from the Lower Cambrian stratotype sections of the Lena Aldan region, but also show additional d13C excursions unrecognized there. The chemostratigraphic correlation suggests that the geological and fossil record of the lower Pestrotsvet Formation in the Selinde section has a deeper history than the stratotype region. This conclusion is important for both constraining the age of the earliest Cambrian marine transgression on the Siberian platform and providing a clearer understanding of the pace and order of early Cambrian geochemical and biological events.

Essays on Economics of Entrepreneurship

This dissertation examines three important issues. The first issue is about the human capital investment and entrepreneurship as a career choice. The standard human capital theory shows that firms (employees) never invest in general (firm-specific) human capital of the employee as they do not extract any return from it. However, when entrepreneurship is introduced as a career option for an innovative employee, both firm’s and employee’s human capital investments change. Employee starts investing in his firm-specific human capital to increase the probability to innovate (and to become an entrepreneur). However, the firm uses general human capital investment to reduce the risk of employee’s departure. The second issue is regarding the factors motivating entry regulations reforms and the possible nonlinear effects of entry regulation reforms. The current literature and the policy recommendations assume that these reforms have linear effects on entrepreneurship. Nevertheless, the anecdotal evidence shows that the outcomes of such reforms vary greatly from country to country. To investigate this issue, I collect a sample data on entry regulations and firm creation from World Bank. The empirical analysis indicates that the effect of entry regulation reforms depends on the pre-reform level of bureaucracy in the country. More specifically, while low-bureaucracy countries benefit from entry regulation reforms, high-bureaucracy countries do not benefit. Moreover, the probability of making a reform increases if the country has reformist neighbors, cumbersome entry regulations, high unemployment rate, or low corruption level. The last issue is related to the individual and joint effects of bureaucracy and corruption on different types of entrepreneurs. The current literature investigates these effects only on unified measures of entrepreneurship. However, entrepreneurs are very different in many senses. To address this issue, I collect the necessity-based and opportunity-based entrepreneurship data from Global Entrepreneurship Monitor. The empirical analysis yield two important results: First, bureaucracy has a direct negative (positive) effect on necessity-based (opportunity-based) entrepreneurs. Second, corruption mitigates the effect of bureaucracy for both groups of entrepreneurs. All three chapters offer useful insights and important implications to academics and policymakers.

Study Abroad Course Development: Pre-Departure Sessions

Study abroad is a highly encouraged component of the undergrad business program at Bella Lake University, with the large majority of undergraduate students choosing to study and live in a foreign country to expand on their international experiences. Currently, there is no learning structure or learning outcome expectation for students that will participate in the study abroad experience. This project focuses on the development of a course that supports students in the pre-departure phase of their study abroad journey and prepares them to set goals, understand the learning process and the practices of experiential learning to encourage students to achieve both personal and professional goals, and encourage the development of intercultural competence. The discourse surrounding the perceptions and efficacy of the course development is based on a self-assessment survey completed by 121 undergraduate business students that participated in the pre-departure sessions prior to leaving for study abroad in March 2016. The self-assessment results overall showed that the course achieved its aims with the majority of students rating that they were more likely to understand and engage in experiential learning, set goals for their study abroad experience and felt more prepared for study abroad after attending the pre-departure sessions. The project concludes that in order for the pre-departure course to maintain its value, the conversation with students surrounding experiential learning in study abroad needs to continue with further course development focusing on both during and post-study abroad. Further exploration can also be done to find varying ways to motivate different students to engage in the learning potential of study abroad.

The effect of multilingual facilitation on active participation in MOOCs Authors:

A new approach for overcoming the language and culture barriers to participation in MOOCs is reported. It is hypothesised that the juxtaposition of English as the language of instruction, used for interacting with course materials, and one’s preferred language as the language of participation, used for interaction with peers and facilitators, is preferable to ‘English only’ for participation in a MOOC. The HANDSON MOOC included seven teams of facilitators, each catering for a different language community. Facilitators were responsible for promoting active participation and peer tutoring. Comparing language groups revealed a series of predictors of intention to learn, some of which became apparent in the first days of the MOOC already. The comparison also uncovered four critical factors that influence participation: facilitation, language of participation, group size, and a pre-existing sense of community. Especially crucial was reaching a sufficient number of active participants during the first week. We conclude that multilingual facilitation activates participation in MOOCs in various ways; and that synergy between the four aforementioned factors is critical for the formation of the learning network that supports a social dynamics of active participation. Our approach suggests future targets for the development of the multilingual and community potential of MOOCs.

Commentary on Henrician Proclamation 1538:A Proclamation Prohibiting Unlicensed Printing of Scripture (1538)

Royal Proclamation prohibiting the printing and publishing of ecclesiastical and other books without prior licence, as well as the importation, sale and publication of English language texts printed on the continent. This Proclamation established the precedent for the pre-publication licensing of literary works in England.
The commentary describes the background to the Proclamation, in particular the significance of the English Reformation, and Henry VIII's increasing interest in regulating and censuring the press. The commentary suggests that while this early instance of press intervention influenced governmental attitudes to censorship throughout the next 150 years, one of the crucial differences between this and later models of ideological control was that the 1538 Proclamation sought to censure print materials in a manner that was decoupled from the economic ownership and exploitation of such works.

Conventional versus hypofractionated high-dose intensity-modulated radiotherapy for prostate cancer: 5-year outcomes of the randomised, non-inferiority, phase 3 CHHiP trial

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer might have high radiation-fraction sensitivity that would give a therapeutic advantage to hypofractionated treatment. We present a pre-planned analysis of the efficacy and side-effects of a randomised trial comparing conventional and hypofractionated radiotherapy after 5 years follow-up.

METHODS: CHHiP is a randomised, phase 3, non-inferiority trial that recruited men with localised prostate cancer (pT1b-T3aN0M0). Patients were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to conventional (74 Gy delivered in 37 fractions over 7·4 weeks) or one of two hypofractionated schedules (60 Gy in 20 fractions over 4 weeks or 57 Gy in 19 fractions over 3·8 weeks) all delivered with intensity-modulated techniques. Most patients were given radiotherapy with 3-6 months of neoadjuvant and concurrent androgen suppression. Randomisation was by computer-generated random permuted blocks, stratified by National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) risk group and radiotherapy treatment centre, and treatment allocation was not masked. The primary endpoint was time to biochemical or clinical failure; the critical hazard ratio (HR) for non-inferiority was 1·208. Analysis was by intention to treat. Long-term follow-up continues. The CHHiP trial is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN97182923.

FINDINGS: Between Oct 18, 2002, and June 17, 2011, 3216 men were enrolled from 71 centres and randomly assigned (74 Gy group, 1065 patients; 60 Gy group, 1074 patients; 57 Gy group, 1077 patients). Median follow-up was 62·4 months (IQR 53·9-77·0). The proportion of patients who were biochemical or clinical failure free at 5 years was 88·3% (95% CI 86·0-90·2) in the 74 Gy group, 90·6% (88·5-92·3) in the 60 Gy group, and 85·9% (83·4-88·0) in the 57 Gy group. 60 Gy was non-inferior to 74 Gy (HR 0·84 [90% CI 0·68-1·03], pNI=0·0018) but non-inferiority could not be claimed for 57 Gy compared with 74 Gy (HR 1·20 [0·99-1·46], pNI=0·48). Long-term side-effects were similar in the hypofractionated groups compared with the conventional group. There were no significant differences in either the proportion or cumulative incidence of side-effects 5 years after treatment using three clinician-reported as well as patient-reported outcome measures. The estimated cumulative 5 year incidence of Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) grade 2 or worse bowel and bladder adverse events was 13·7% (111 events) and 9·1% (66 events) in the 74 Gy group, 11·9% (105 events) and 11·7% (88 events) in the 60 Gy group, 11·3% (95 events) and 6·6% (57 events) in the 57 Gy group, respectively. No treatment-related deaths were reported.

INTERPRETATION: Hypofractionated radiotherapy using 60 Gy in 20 fractions is non-inferior to conventional fractionation using 74 Gy in 37 fractions and is recommended as a new standard of care for external-beam radiotherapy of localised prostate cancer.

FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, Department of Health, and the National Institute for Health Research Cancer Research Network.