960 resultados para Population viability analysis


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Sustainability is frequently defined by its three pillars: economically viable, socially equitable, and environmentally bearable. Consequently the evaluation of the sustainability of any decision, public or private, requires information on these three dimensions. This paper focuses on social sustainability. In the context of renewable energy sources, the examination of social sustainability requires the analysis of not only the efficiency but also the equity of its welfare impacts. The present paper proposes and applies a methodology to generate the information necessary to do a proper welfare analysis of the social sustainability of renewable energy production facilities. This information is key both for an equity and an efficiency analysis. The analysis focuses on the case of investments in renewable energy electricity production facilities, where the impacts on local residents’ welfare are often significantly different than the welfare effects on the general population. We apply the contingent valuation method to selected facilities across the different renewable energy power plants located in Portugal and conclude that local residents acknowledge differently the damage sustained by the type, location and operation of the plants. The results from these case studies attest to the need of acknowledging and quantifying the negative impacts on local communities when assessing the economic viability, social equity and environmental impact of renewable energy projects.

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Biofilm research is growing more diverse and dependent on high-throughput technologies and the large-scale production of results aggravates data substantiation. In particular, it is often the case that experimental protocols are adapted to meet the needs of a particular laboratory and no statistical validation of the modified method is provided. This paper discusses the impact of intra-laboratory adaptation and non-rigorous documentation of experimental protocols on biofilm data interchange and validation. The case study is a non-standard, but widely used, workflow for Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilm development, considering three analysis assays: the crystal violet (CV) assay for biomass quantification, the XTT assay for respiratory activity assessment, and the colony forming units (CFU) assay for determination of cell viability. The ruggedness of the protocol was assessed by introducing small changes in the biofilm growth conditions, which simulate minor protocol adaptations and non-rigorous protocol documentation. Results show that even minor variations in the biofilm growth conditions may affect the results considerably, and that the biofilm analysis assays lack repeatability. Intra-laboratory validation of non-standard protocols is found critical to ensure data quality and enable the comparison of results within and among laboratories.

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Allied to an epidemiological study of population of the Senology Unit of Braga’s Hospital that have been diagnosed with malignant breast cancer, we describe the progression in time of repeated measurements of tumor marker Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). Our main purpose is to describe the progression of this tumor marker as a function of possible risk factors and, hence, to understand how these risk factors influences that progression. The response variable, values of CEA, was analyzed making use of longitudinal models, testing for different correlation structures. The same covariates used in a previous survival analysis were considered in the longitudinal model. The reference time used was time from diagnose until death from breast cancer. For diagnostic of the models fitted we have used empirical and theoretical variograms. To evaluate the fixed term of the longitudinal model we have tested for a changing point on the effect of time on the tumor marker progression. A longitudinal model was also fitted only to the subset of patients that died from breast cancer, using the reference time as time from date of death until blood test.

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OBJECTIVE: To analyze in out clinic elderly patients of both sexes for the prevalence of risk factors for atherosclerosis and study their association with the complications of atherosclerosis. METHODS: Five hundred and sixteen outpatients, 152 men and 364 women, 60 years or older, were studied. The prevalences of hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, cigarette smoking and obesity were determined in both sexes and compared using the chi-square test. The association between these factors and the presence of atherosclerotic complications was analyzed by logistic regression. RESULTS: The comparative analysis of the factors in both sexes showed that hypertension, total cholesterol > or = 240mg/dL, LDL-cholesterol > or = 160mg/dL, and body mass index >27.5 were more frequent among women, but HDL-cholesterol <35mg/dL and cigarette smoking were more frequent among men, and no difference occurred between sexes in relation to the frequency of triglycerides > or = 250mg/dL and diabetes mellitus. After adjustment of the variables in the regression model, we observed that in the total of elderly patients, risk factors for complications of atherosclerosis were: triglycerides > or = 250mg/dL, hypertension, and male sex. Among men, the risk factors were: LDL-cholesterol > or = 160mg/dL, diabetes mellitus, HDL-cholesterol <35mg/dL and hypertension. Among women, the risk factors were: tryglicerides > or = 250mg/dL and hypertension. CONCLUSION: The results showed that, in the elderly, the risk factors for atherosclerosis persist, but with different behaviors between men and women. The study suggests that the relative importance of the risk factors can change with the aging process.

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OBJECTIVE: To study the influence of immune and nonimmune risk factors on the development of allograft vasculopathy after cardiac transplantation. METHODS: We studied 39 patients with a mean age of 46±12 years. The following variables were analyzed: weight (kg), body mass index (kg/m²), donor's age and sex, rejection episodes in the first and second years after transplantation, systolic and diastolic blood pressures (mmHg), total cholesterol and fractions (mg/dL), triglycerides (mg/dL), diabetes, and cytomegalovirus infection. The presence of allograft vasculopathy was established through coronary angiography. RESULTS: Allograft vasculopathy was observed in 15 (38%) patients. No statistically significant difference was observed between the two groups in regard to hypertension, cytomegalovirus infection, diabetes, donor's sex and age, rejection episodes in the first and second years after transplantation, and cholesterol levels. We observed a tendency toward higher levels of triglycerides in the group with disease. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed statistically significant differences between the two groups when we analyzed the body mass index (24.53±4.3 versus 28.11±4.6; p=0.019). CONCLUSION: Body mass index was an important marker of allograft vasculopathy in the population studied.

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Dissertação de mestrado em Estatística

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OBJECTIVE: To detect factors associated with cardiovascular mortality in the elderly of Botucatu. METHODS: We evaluated 29 variables of interest in a cohort of patients aged ³60 using data from a survey conducted between 1983/84. The elderly cohort was analyzed in 1992 to detect the occurrence of cardiovascular deaths. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test, and Cox regression analysis. Three models were adapted for each group of variables, and a final model was chosen from those variables selected from each group. RESULTS: We identified predictor for cardiovascular death according to age for elderly males not supporting the family, not possessing a vehicle, and previous cardiovascular disease. In elderly females, the predictor variables were previous cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic indicators (family heading and vehicle ownerrship) may be added to well stabilished medical factors (diabete mellitus and hypertension to select target groups for programs intended to reduce deaths due to cardiovascular diseases in elderly people.

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OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of intermittent claudication in the aged population of Bambuí, Brazil, and to identify the factors associated with this disease. METHODS: Population-based cross-sectional study of the aged population ( > or = 60 years of age) of Bambuí. Participants were interviewed and examined, after written consent. Intermittent claudication was defined based on a standardized questionnaire. Analysis was performed using multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: Of the 1,742 elderly living in Bambuí, 1,485 (85.2%) were enrolled in the study. Thirty-seven individuals (2.5%) with intermittent claudication were identified: 28 (1.9%) males and 9 (0.6%) females. Their age brackets were: 16 (1.08%) individuals between 60 and 69 years of age, 17 (1.15%) between 70 and 79 years, and 4 (0.27%) > or = 80 years. A significant association between intermittent claudication and the following characteristics was found: male sex (OR=5.1; CI 2.4-11.0), smokers (OR=3.1; CI 1.2-8.5), ex-smokers (OR=3.4; CI 1.3-8.7), and more than 2 hospital admissions in the last 12 months (OR=2.8; CI 1.1-7.2). CONCLUSION: Disease prevalence was similar to that of other countries. The association between intermittent claudication and smoking strengthens the significance of tobacco in peripheral artery disease pathogenesis. The association of intermittent claudication and a higher number of hospital admissions suggests greater morbidity in the elderly affected.

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OBJECTIVE - To determine the prevalence of hyperhomocystinemia in patients with acute ischemic syndrome of the unstable angina type. METHODS - We prospectively studied 46 patients (24 females) with unstable angina and 46 control patients (19 males), paired by sex and age, blinded to the laboratory data. Details of diets, smoking habits, medication used, body mass index, and the presence of hypertension and diabetes were recorded, as were plasma lipid and glucose levels, C-reactive protein, and lipoperoxidation in all participants. Patients with renal disease were excluded. Plasma homocysteine was estimated using high-pressure liquid chromatography. RESULTS - Plasma homocysteine levels were significantly higher in the group of patients with unstable angina (12.7±6.7 µmol/L) than in the control group (8.7±4.4 µmol/L) (p<0.05). Among males, homocystinemia was higher in the group with unstable angina than in the control group, but this difference was not statistically significant (14.1±5.9 µmol/L versus 11.9±4.2 µmol/L). Among females, however, a statistically significant difference was observed between the 2 groups: 11.0±7.4 µmol/L versus 6.4±2.9 µmol/L (p<0.05) in the unstable angina and control groups, respectively. Approximately 24% of the patients had unstable angina at homocysteine levels above 15 µmol/L. CONCLUSION - High homocysteine levels seem to be a relevant prevalent factor in the population with unstable angina, particularly among females.

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OBJECTIVE: To describe the relative incidence, presentation, and evolvement of fetuses with early ductus constriction. METHODS: Twenty fetal echocardiograms indicating ductus constriction were reviewed in a population of 7000 pregnants. RESULTS: The cases were divided into group A (related to maternal use of cyclooxygenase inhibitors [n=7] and group B (idiopathics [n=13]). Mean gestational age was 32.5±3.1 (27-38) weeks and maternal age was 28.2±8.5 (17-42) years. Mean systolic velocity in the ductus was 2.22±0.34 (1.66-2.81) m/s, diastolic velocity 0.79±0.28 (0.45-1.5) m/s, and pulsatility index 1.33±0.36 (0.52-1.83). Two cases of ductal occlusion were noted. In 65% of the cases, an increase occurred in the right cavities; in 90% of the cases, tricuspid or pulmonary regurgitation, or both, occurred, with functional pulmonary atresia in 1 case. Diastolic velocity was greater in group A (1.13±0.33) than in group B (0.68±0.15) (P=0.008). The other data were similar in the 2 groups. The evolvement was not favorable in 4 patients from group B, including 1 death and 2 cases of persistent pulmonary hypertension. CONCLUSION: The high incidence of idiopathic constriction of the ductus arteriosus suggests that its diagnosis is underestimated and that many cases of persistence of fetal circulation in newborns may be related to constriction of the ductus arteriosus not diagnosed during intrauterine life. Group B had a lower severity but a risk of an unfavorable evolvement, suggesting a distinct alteration.

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The recruitment of 0-group plaice to sandy beach nursery grounds in Galway Bay was examined, using a Riley push-net, from February to June in 2005 and 2006. Sampling was carried out every two weeks on spring tides. Three beaches were sampled, Ballyloughan, Silverstrand and Glann na Ri. Archived 0-group plaice, for Ballyloughan and Silverstrand, from 2004, were processed. Results were compared to findings from a previous study carried out in 2002 and 2003 (Allen 2004). Otolith microstructure analysis was used to determine hatching dates, larval duration, settlement dates, post-larval age and daily growth rates of 0-group plaice in April and May 2005. Results were compared to a previous study (Allen 2004). Hatching dates in Galway Bay ranged from late January to early April in 2005. No significant difference in hatching dates was observed between years or between beaches sampled. Larval duration of 0-group plaice in Galway Bay ranged from 21 to 45 days for fish sampled in April and May 2005. No significant difference was observed in larval age between beaches sampled in Galway Bay or between years in April 2003 and 2005. A significant difference was observed between larval age and years in May 2003 and 2005, however no significant difference was observed between beaches. Settlement timing was calculated using push-net data and otolith microstructure analysis. Settlement of 0-group plaice in Galway Bay generally started in early March and finished in May. Settlement patterns, calculated using otolith microstructure analysis, in 2003 and 2005, were not significantly different to one another. There was also no difference in settlement patterns between the beaches sampled. Results from the present study showed no spatial difference in the pelagic life cycle stages of fish caught in April and May 2003 and 2005.

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The Common whelk, Buccinum undatum (L.) is a conspicuous benthic scavenger in Irish waters, and is a valuable fisheries resource in South East Ireland. B. undatum is fished in many parts of its range, and previous studies have shown that certain life history parameters, which vary with location, make this species vulnerable to overexploitation. This makes research into each exploited stock essential to ensure sustainable fisheries management of the species. In 2003, interest in B. undatum as a complementary species in the inshore fishery east of the Inishowen Peninsula, North West Ireland, initiated investigation into fisheries related biological and population aspects of the species in this region. The current study presents estimates of spatial variation and density of the stock, size at age and growth rates, size and age at onset of sexual maturity, and timing of reproductive events in the region of the North West Irish whelk fishery for the period of June 2003 to May 2004. Analysis of variance of the total shell length of whelk landings to the fishery was conducted over spatial scales of fishing pot, fishing string and landings to vessels. Landings varied significantly in shell length at the spatial scale at which whelks are attracted to baited pots, but did not vary significantly over larger spatial scales. Depletion estimates of stock density from fisheries derived Catch per Unit Effort data and a mark re-capture experiment estimate 0.134 - 0.227 whelks per m2. Two independent methods of age determination found similar growth logistics functions for B. undatum.Modal analysis of length frequency distribution of landings to the fishery estimated symptotic length, Leo = 151.64 mm and Brody growth coefficient, K = 0.04. Analysis of the striae in individual opercula, where each stria was found to represent annual growth, estimated Loo = 137.73 mm and K = 0.12. Common whelks in the region of the North West Irish whelk fishery grow slowly and are long-lived, with 19 opercula striae recorded in one individual. Onset of sexual maturity is late, and no sex-specific differences in size or age at maturity were determined in the present study. Males were found to achieve sexual maturity at 83.30 ± 10.77 mm, and 8.9 - 11.1 years of age, and females at 82.62 ± 10.68 mm and 8.8 to 11.1 years of age. Systematic observations of reproductive events, including histological changes to the female ovary and male testis, and changes in the size and mass of body components, suggest that breeding occurred between the autumn and winter months of October and December 2003. Biological aspects of B. undatum in the study region are compared with previous studies from other regions, and discussed in relation to sustainable management of the fishery.

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Background:Evidences suggest that paraoxonase 1 (PON1) confers important antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties when associated with high-density lipoprotein (HDL).Objective:To investigate the relationships between p.Q192R SNP ofPON1, biochemical parameters and carotid atherosclerosis in an asymptomatic, normolipidemic Brazilian population sample.Methods:We studied 584 volunteers (females n = 326, males n = 258; 19-75 years of age). Total genomic DNA was extracted and SNP was detected in the TaqMan® SNP OpenArray® genotyping platform (Applied Biosystems, Foster City, CA). Plasma lipoproteins and apolipoproteins were determined and PON1 activity was measured using paraoxon as a substrate. High-resolution β-mode ultrasonography was used to measure cIMT and the presence of carotid atherosclerotic plaques in a subgroup of individuals (n = 317).Results:The presence of p.192Q was associated with a significant increase in PON1 activity (RR = 12.30 (11.38); RQ = 46.96 (22.35); QQ = 85.35 (24.83) μmol/min; p < 0.0001), HDL-C (RR= 45 (37); RQ = 62 (39); QQ = 69 (29) mg/dL; p < 0.001) and apo A-I (RR = 140.76 ± 36.39; RQ = 147.62 ± 36.92; QQ = 147.49 ± 36.65 mg/dL; p = 0.019). Stepwise regression analysis revealed that heterozygous and p.192Q carriers influenced by 58% PON1 activity towards paraoxon. The univariate linear regression analysis demonstrated that p.Q192R SNP was not associated with mean cIMT; as a result, in the multiple regression analysis, no variables were selected with 5% significance. In logistic regression analysis, the studied parameters were not associated with the presence of carotid plaques.Conclusion:In low-risk individuals, the presence of the p.192Q variant ofPON1 is associated with a beneficial plasma lipid profile but not with carotid atherosclerosis.