Changes in the risk of death after HIV seroconversion compared with mortality in the general population.

CONTEXT: Mortality among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals has decreased dramatically in countries with good access to treatment and may now be close to mortality in the general uninfected population. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate changes in the mortality gap between HIV-infected individuals and the general uninfected population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND POPULATION: Mortality following HIV seroconversion in a large multinational collaboration of HIV seroconverter cohorts (CASCADE) was compared with expected mortality, calculated by applying general population death rates matched on demographic factors. A Poisson-based model adjusted for duration of infection was constructed to assess changes over calendar time in the excess mortality among HIV-infected individuals. Data pooled in September 2007 were analyzed in March 2008, covering years at risk 1981-2006. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Excess mortality among HIV-infected individuals compared with that of the general uninfected population. RESULTS: Of 16,534 individuals with median duration of follow-up of 6.3 years (range, 1 day to 23.8 years), 2571 died, compared with 235 deaths expected in an equivalent general population cohort. The excess mortality rate (per 1000 person-years) decreased from 40.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 38.5-43.0; 1275.9 excess deaths in 31,302 person-years) before the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (pre-1996) to 6.1 (95% CI, 4.8-7.4; 89.6 excess deaths in 14,703 person-years) in 2004-2006 (adjusted excess hazard ratio, 0.05 [95% CI, 0.03-0.09] for 2004-2006 vs pre-1996). By 2004-2006, no excess mortality was observed in the first 5 years following HIV seroconversion among those infected sexually, though a cumulative excess probability of death remained over the longer term (4.8% [95% CI, 2.5%-8.6%] in the first 10 years among those aged 15-24 years). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality rates for HIV-infected persons have become much closer to general mortality rates since the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy. In industrialized countries, persons infected sexually with HIV now appear to experience mortality rates similar to those of the general population in the first 5 years following infection, though a mortality excess remains as duration of HIV infection lengthens.

Brazilian maize genotypes sensitivity to water deficit estimated through a simple crop yield model

The objective of this work was to determine the sensitivity of maize (Zea mays) genotypes to water deficit, using a simple agrometeorological crop yield model. Crop actual yield and agronomic data of 26 genotypes were obtained from the Maize National Assays carried out in ten locations, in four Brazilian states, from 1998 to 2006. Weather information for each experimental location and period were obtained from the closest weather station. Water deficit sensitivity index (Ky) was determined using the crop yield depletion model. Genotypes can be divided into two groups according to their resistance to water deficit. Normal resistance genotypes had Ky ranging from 0.4 to 0.5 in vegetative period, 1.4 to 1.5 in flowering, 0.3 to 0.6 in fruiting, and 0.1 to 0.3 in maturing period, whereas the higher resistance genotypes had lower values, respectively 0.2-0.4, 0.7-1.2, 0.2-0.4, and 0.1-0.2. The general Ky for the total growing season was 2.15 for sensitive genotypes and 1.56 for the resistant ones. Model performance was acceptable to evaluate crop actual yield, whose average errors estimated for each genotype ranged from -5.7% to +5.8%, and whose general mean absolute error was 960 kg ha-1 (10%).

Conservation of the Eurasian Lynx (Lynx lynx) in a fragmented landscape - habitat models, dispersal and potential distribution

Abstract: The expansion of a recovering population - whether re-introduced or spontaneously returning - is shaped by (i) biological (intrinsic) factors such as the land tenure system or dispersal, (ii) the distribution and availability of resources (e.g. prey), (iii) habitat and landscape features, and (iv) human attitudes and activities. In order to develop efficient conservation and recovery strategies, we need to understand all these factors and to predict the potential distribution and explore ways to reach it. An increased number of lynx in the north-western Swiss Alps in the nineties lead to a new controversy about the return of this cat. When the large carnivores were given legal protection in many European countries, most organizations and individuals promoting their protection did not foresee the consequences. Management plans describing how to handle conflicts with large predators are needed to find a balance between "overabundance" and extinction. Wildlife and conservation biologists need to evaluate the various threats confronting populations so that adequate management decisions can be taken. I developed a GIS probability model for the lynx, based on habitat information and radio-telemetry data from the Swiss Jura Mountains, in order to predict the potential distribution of the lynx in this mountain range, which is presently only partly occupied by lynx. Three of the 18 variables tested for each square kilometre describing land use, vegetation, and topography, qualified to predict the probability of lynx presence. The resulting map was evaluated with data from dispersing subadult lynx. Young lynx that were not able to establish home ranges in what was identified as good lynx habitat did not survive their first year of independence, whereas the only one that died in good lynx habitat was illegally killed. Radio-telemetry fixes are often used as input data to calibrate habitat models. Radio-telemetry is the only way to gather accurate and unbiased data on habitat use of elusive larger terrestrial mammals. However, it is time consuming and expensive, and can therefore only be applied in limited areas. Habitat models extrapolated over large areas can in turn be problematic, as habitat characteristics and availability may change from one area to the other. I analysed the predictive power of Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) in Switzerland with the lynx as focal species. According to my results, the optimal sampling strategy to predict species distribution in an Alpine area lacking available data would be to pool presence cells from contrasted regions (Jura Mountains, Alps), whereas in regions with a low ecological variance (Jura Mountains), only local presence cells should be used for the calibration of the model. Dispersal influences the dynamics and persistence of populations, the distribution and abundance of species, and gives the communities and ecosystems their characteristic texture in space and time. Between 1988 and 2001, the spatio-temporal behaviour of subadult Eurasian lynx in two re-introduced populations in Switzerland was studied, based on 39 juvenile lynx of which 24 were radio-tagged to understand the factors influencing dispersal. Subadults become independent from their mothers at the age of 8-11 months. No sex bias neither in the dispersal rate nor in the distance moved was detected. Lynx are conservative dispersers, compared to bear and wolf, and settled within or close to known lynx occurrences. Dispersal distances reached in the high lynx density population - shorter than those reported in other Eurasian lynx studies - are limited by habitat restriction hindering connections with neighbouring metapopulations. I postulated that high lynx density would lead to an expansion of the population and validated my predictions with data from the north-western Swiss Alps where about 1995 a strong increase in lynx abundance took place. The general hypothesis that high population density will foster the expansion of the population was not confirmed. This has consequences for the re-introduction and recovery of carnivores in a fragmented landscape. To establish a strong source population in one place might not be an optimal strategy. Rather, population nuclei should be founded in several neighbouring patches. Exchange between established neighbouring subpopulations will later on take place, as adult lynx show a higher propensity to cross barriers than subadults. To estimate the potential population size of the lynx in the Jura Mountains and to assess possible corridors between this population and adjacent areas, I adapted a habitat probability model for lynx distribution in the Jura Mountains with new environmental data and extrapolated it over the entire mountain range. The model predicts a breeding population ranging from 74-101 individuals and from 51-79 individuals when continuous habitat patches < 50 km2 are disregarded. The Jura Mountains could once be part of a metapopulation, as potential corridors exist to the adjoining areas (Alps, Vosges Mountains, and Black Forest). Monitoring of the population size, spatial expansion, and the genetic surveillance in the Jura Mountains must be continued, as the status of the population is still critical. ENFA was used to predict the potential distribution of lynx in the Alps. The resulting model divided the Alps into 37 suitable habitat patches ranging from 50 to 18,711 km2, covering a total area of about 93,600 km2. When using the range of lynx densities found in field studies in Switzerland, the Alps could host a population of 961 to 1,827 residents. The results of the cost-distance analysis revealed that all patches were within the reach of dispersing lynx, as the connection costs were in the range of dispersal cost of radio-tagged subadult lynx moving through unfavorable habitat. Thus, the whole Alps could once be considered as a metapopulation. But experience suggests that only few disperser will cross unsuitable areas and barriers. This low migration rate may seldom allow the spontaneous foundation of new populations in unsettled areas. As an alternative to natural dispersal, artificial transfer of individuals across the barriers should be considered. Wildlife biologists can play a crucial role in developing adaptive management experiments to help managers learning by trial. The case of the lynx in Switzerland is a good example of a fruitful cooperation between wildlife biologists, managers, decision makers and politician in an adaptive management process. This cooperation resulted in a Lynx Management Plan which was implemented in 2000 and updated in 2004 to give the cantons directives on how to handle lynx-related problems. This plan was put into practice e.g. in regard to translocation of lynx into unsettled areas. Résumé: L'expansion d'une population en phase de recolonisation, qu'elle soit issue de réintroductions ou d'un retour naturel dépend 1) de facteurs biologiques tels que le système social et le mode de dispersion, 2) de la distribution et la disponibilité des ressources (proies), 3) de l'habitat et des éléments du paysage, 4) de l'acceptation de l'espèce par la population locale et des activités humaines. Afin de pouvoir développer des stratégies efficaces de conservation et de favoriser la recolonisation, chacun de ces facteurs doit être pris en compte. En plus, la distribution potentielle de l'espèce doit pouvoir être déterminée et enfin, toutes les possibilités pour atteindre les objectifs, examinées. La phase de haute densité que la population de lynx a connue dans les années nonante dans le nord-ouest des Alpes suisses a donné lieu à une controverse assez vive. La protection du lynx dans de nombreux pays européens, promue par différentes organisations, a entraîné des conséquences inattendues; ces dernières montrent que tout plan de gestion doit impérativement indiquer des pistes quant à la manière de gérer les conflits, tout en trouvant un équilibre entre l'extinction et la surabondance de l'espèce. Les biologistes de la conservation et de la faune sauvage doivent pour cela évaluer les différents risques encourus par les populations de lynx, afin de pouvoir rapidement prendre les meilleuresmdécisions de gestion. Un modèle d'habitat pour le lynx, basé sur des caractéristiques de l'habitat et des données radio télémétriques collectées dans la chaîne du Jura, a été élaboré afin de prédire la distribution potentielle dans cette région, qui n'est que partiellement occupée par l'espèce. Trois des 18 variables testées, décrivant pour chaque kilomètre carré l'utilisation du sol, la végétation ainsi que la topographie, ont été retenues pour déterminer la probabilité de présence du lynx. La carte qui en résulte a été comparée aux données télémétriques de lynx subadultes en phase de dispersion. Les jeunes qui n'ont pas pu établir leur domaine vital dans l'habitat favorable prédit par le modèle n'ont pas survécu leur première année d'indépendance alors que le seul individu qui est mort dans l'habitat favorable a été braconné. Les données radio-télémétriques sont souvent utilisées pour l'étalonnage de modèles d'habitat. C'est un des seuls moyens à disposition qui permette de récolter des données non biaisées et précises sur l'occupation de l'habitat par des mammifères terrestres aux moeurs discrètes. Mais ces méthodes de- mandent un important investissement en moyens financiers et en temps et peuvent, de ce fait, n'être appliquées qu'à des zones limitées. Les modèles d'habitat sont ainsi souvent extrapolés à de grandes surfaces malgré le risque d'imprécision, qui résulte des variations des caractéristiques et de la disponibilité de l'habitat d'une zone à l'autre. Le pouvoir de prédiction de l'Analyse Ecologique de la Niche (AEN) dans les zones où les données de présence n'ont pas été prises en compte dans le calibrage du modèle a été analysée dans le cas du lynx en Suisse. D'après les résultats obtenus, la meilleure mé- thode pour prédire la distribution du lynx dans une zone alpine dépourvue d'indices de présence est de combiner des données provenant de régions contrastées (Alpes, Jura). Par contre, seules les données sur la présence locale de l'espèce doivent être utilisées pour les zones présentant une faible variance écologique tel que le Jura. La dispersion influence la dynamique et la stabilité des populations, la distribution et l'abondance des espèces et détermine les caractéristiques spatiales et temporelles des communautés vivantes et des écosystèmes. Entre 1988 et 2001, le comportement spatio-temporel de lynx eurasiens subadultes de deux populations réintroduites en Suisse a été étudié, basé sur le suivi de 39 individus juvéniles dont 24 étaient munis d'un collier émetteur, afin de déterminer les facteurs qui influencent la dispersion. Les subadultes se sont séparés de leur mère à l'âge de 8 à 11 mois. Le sexe n'a pas eu d'influence sur le nombre d'individus ayant dispersés et la distance parcourue au cours de la dispersion. Comparé à l'ours et au loup, le lynx reste très modéré dans ses mouvements de dispersion. Tous les individus ayant dispersés se sont établis à proximité ou dans des zones déjà occupées par des lynx. Les distances parcourues lors de la dispersion ont été plus courtes pour la population en phase de haute densité que celles relevées par les autres études de dispersion du lynx eurasien. Les zones d'habitat peu favorables et les barrières qui interrompent la connectivité entre les populations sont les principales entraves aux déplacements, lors de la dispersion. Dans un premier temps, nous avons fait l'hypothèse que les phases de haute densité favorisaient l'expansion des populations. Mais cette hypothèse a été infirmée par les résultats issus du suivi des lynx réalisé dans le nord-ouest des Alpes, où la population connaissait une phase de haute densité depuis 1995. Ce constat est important pour la conservation d'une population de carnivores dans un habitat fragmenté. Ainsi, instaurer une forte population source à un seul endroit n'est pas forcément la stratégie la plus judicieuse. Il est préférable d'établir des noyaux de populations dans des régions voisines où l'habitat est favorable. Des échanges entre des populations avoisinantes pourront avoir lieu par la suite car les lynx adultes sont plus enclins à franchir les barrières qui entravent leurs déplacements que les individus subadultes. Afin d'estimer la taille de la population de lynx dans le Jura et de déterminer les corridors potentiels entre cette région et les zones avoisinantes, un modèle d'habitat a été utilisé, basé sur un nouveau jeu de variables environnementales et extrapolé à l'ensemble du Jura. Le modèle prédit une population reproductrice de 74 à 101 individus et de 51 à 79 individus lorsque les surfaces d'habitat d'un seul tenant de moins de 50 km2 sont soustraites. Comme des corridors potentiels existent effectivement entre le Jura et les régions avoisinantes (Alpes, Vosges, et Forêt Noire), le Jura pourrait faire partie à l'avenir d'une métapopulation, lorsque les zones avoisinantes seront colonisées par l'espèce. La surveillance de la taille de la population, de son expansion spatiale et de sa structure génétique doit être maintenue car le statut de cette population est encore critique. L'AEN a également été utilisée pour prédire l'habitat favorable du lynx dans les Alpes. Le modèle qui en résulte divise les Alpes en 37 sous-unités d'habitat favorable dont la surface varie de 50 à 18'711 km2, pour une superficie totale de 93'600 km2. En utilisant le spectre des densités observées dans les études radio-télémétriques effectuées en Suisse, les Alpes pourraient accueillir une population de lynx résidents variant de 961 à 1'827 individus. Les résultats des analyses de connectivité montrent que les sous-unités d'habitat favorable se situent à des distances telles que le coût de la dispersion pour l'espèce est admissible. L'ensemble des Alpes pourrait donc un jour former une métapopulation. Mais l'expérience montre que très peu d'individus traverseront des habitats peu favorables et des barrières au cours de leur dispersion. Ce faible taux de migration rendra difficile toute nouvelle implantation de populations dans des zones inoccupées. Une solution alternative existe cependant : transférer artificiellement des individus d'une zone à l'autre. Les biologistes spécialistes de la faune sauvage peuvent jouer un rôle important et complémentaire pour les gestionnaires de la faune, en les aidant à mener des expériences de gestion par essai. Le cas du lynx en Suisse est un bel exemple d'une collaboration fructueuse entre biologistes de la faune sauvage, gestionnaires, organes décisionnaires et politiciens. Cette coopération a permis l'élaboration du Concept Lynx Suisse qui est entré en vigueur en 2000 et remis à jour en 2004. Ce plan donne des directives aux cantons pour appréhender la problématique du lynx. Il y a déjà eu des applications concrètes sur le terrain, notamment par des translocations d'individus dans des zones encore inoccupées.

Métropolisation, morphologie urbaine et développement durable : transformations urbaines et régulation de l'étalement : le cas de l'agglomération lausannoise

Résumé Métropolisation, morphologie urbaine et développement durable. Transformations urbaines et régulation de l'étalement : le cas de l'agglomération lausannoise. Cette thèse s'inscrit clans la perspective d'une analyse stratégique visant à un définir et à expliciter les liens entre connaissance, expertise et décision politique. L'hypothèse fondamentale qui oriente l'ensemble de ce travail est la suivante : le régime d'urbanisation qui s'est imposé au cours des trente dernières années correspond à une transformation du principe morphogénétique de développement spatial des agglomérations qui tend à alourdir leurs bilans écologiques et à péjorer la qualité du cadre de vie des citadins. Ces enjeux environnementaux liés aux changements urbains et singulièrement ceux de la forme urbaine constituent un thème de plus en plus important dans la recherche de solutions d'aménagement urbain dans une perspective de développement durable. Dans ce contexte, l'aménagement urbain devient un mode d'action et une composante de tout premier ordre des politiques publiques visant un développement durable à l'échelle locale et globale. Ces modalités de développement spatial des agglomérations émergent indiscutablement au coeur de la problématique environnementale. Or si le concept de développement durable nous livre une nouvelle de de lecture des territoires et de ses transformations, en prônant le modèle de la ville compacte et son corollaire la densification, la traduction à donner à ce principe stratégique reste controversée, notamment sous l'angle de l'aménagement du territoire et des stratégies de développement urbain permettant une mise en oeuvre adéquate des solutions proposées. Nous avons ainsi tenté dans ce travail de répondre à un certain nombre de questions : quelle validité accorder au modèle de la ville compacte ? La densification est-elle une réponse adéquate ? Si oui, sous quelles modalités ? Quelles sont, en termes de stratégies d'aménagement, les alternatives durables au modèle de la ville étalée ? Faut-il vraiment densifier ou simplement maîtriser la dispersion ? Notre objectif principal étant in fine de déterminer les orientations et contenus urbanistiques de politiques publiques visant à réguler l'étalement urbain, de valider la faisabilité de ces principes et à définir les conditions de leur mise en place dans le cas d'une agglomération. Pour cela, et après avoir choisi l'agglomération lausannoise comme terrain d'expérimentation, trois approches complémentaires se sont révélées indispensables dans ce travail 1. une approche théorique visant à définir un cadre conceptuel interdisciplinaire d'analyse du phénomène urbain dans ses rapports à la problématique du développement durable liant régime d'urbanisation - forme urbaine - développement durable ; 2. une approche méthodologique proposant des outils d'analyse simples et efficaces de description des nouvelles morphologies urbaines pour une meilleure gestion de l'environnement urbain et de la pratique de l'aménagement urbain ; 3. une approche pragmatique visant à approfondir la réflexion sur la ville étalée en passant d'une approche descriptive des conséquences du nouveau régime d'urbanisation à une approche opérationnelle, visant à identifier les lignes d'actions possibles dans une perspective de développement durable. Cette démarche d'analyse nous a conduits à trois résultats majeurs, nous permettant de définir une stratégie de lutte contre l'étalement. Premièrement, si la densification est acceptée comme un objectif stratégique de l'aménagement urbain, le modèle de la ville dense ne peut être appliqué saris la prise en considération d'autres objectifs d'aménagement. Il ne suffit pas de densifier pour réduire l'empreinte écologique de la ville et améliorer la qualité de vie des citadins. La recherche d'une forme urbaine plus durable est tributaire d'une multiplicité de facteurs et d'effets de synergie et la maîtrise des effets négatifs de l'étalement urbain passe par la mise en oeuvre de politiques urbaines intégrées et concertées, comme par exemple prôner la densification qualifiée comme résultante d'un processus finalisé, intégrer et valoriser les transports collectifs et encore plus la métrique pédestre avec l'aménagement urbain, intégrer systématiquement la diversité à travers les dimensions physique et sociale du territoire. Deuxièmement, l'avenir de ces territoires étalés n'est pas figé. Notre enquête de terrain a montré une évolution des modes d'habitat liée aux modes de vie, à l'organisation du travail, à la mobilité, qui font que l'on peut penser à un retour d'une partie de la population dans les villes centres (fin de la toute puissance du modèle de la maison individuelle). Ainsi, le diagnostic et la recherche de solutions d'aménagement efficaces et viables ne peuvent être dissociés des demandes des habitants et des comportements des acteurs de la production du cadre bâti. Dans cette perspective, tout programme d'urbanisme doit nécessairement s'appuyer sur la connaissance des aspirations de la population. Troisièmement, la réussite de la mise en oeuvre d'une politique globale de maîtrise des effets négatifs de l'étalement urbain est fortement conditionnée par l'adaptation de l'offre immobilière à la demande de nouveaux modèles d'habitat répondant à la fois à la nécessité d'une maîtrise des coûts de l'urbanisation (économiques, sociaux, environnementaux), ainsi qu'aux aspirations émergentes des ménages. Ces résultats nous ont permis de définir les orientations d'une stratégie de lutte contre l'étalement, dont nous avons testé la faisabilité ainsi que les conditions de mise en oeuvre sur le territoire de l'agglomération lausannoise. Abstract This dissertation participates in the perspective of a strategic analysis aiming at specifying the links between knowledge, expertise and political decision, The fundamental hypothesis directing this study assumes that the urban dynamics that has characterized the past thirty years signifies a trans-formation of the morphogenetic principle of agglomerations' spatial development that results in a worsening of their ecological balance and of city dwellers' quality of life. The environmental implications linked to urban changes and particularly to changes in urban form constitute an ever greater share of research into sustainable urban planning solutions. In this context, urban planning becomes a mode of action and an essential component of public policies aiming at local and global sustainable development. These patterns of spatial development indisputably emerge at the heart of environmental issues. If the concept of sustainable development provides us with new understanding into territories and their transformations, by arguing in favor of densification, its concretization remains at issue, especially in terms of urban planning and of urban development strategies allowing the appropriate implementations of the solutions offered. Thus, this study tries to answer a certain number of questions: what validity should be granted to the model of the dense city? Is densification an adequate answer? If so, under what terms? What are the sustainable alternatives to urban sprawl in terms of planning strategies? Should densification really be pursued or should we simply try to master urban sprawl? Our main objective being in fine to determine the directions and urban con-tents of public policies aiming at regulating urban sprawl, to validate the feasibility of these principles and to define the conditions of their implementation in the case of one agglomeration. Once the Lausanne agglomeration had been chosen as experimentation field, three complementary approaches proved to be essential to this study: 1. a theoretical approach aiming at definying an interdisciplinary conceptual framework of the ur-ban phenomenon in its relation to sustainable development linking urban dynamics - urban form - sustainable development ; 2. a methodological approach proposing simple and effective tools for analyzing and describing new urban morphologies for a better management of the urban environment and of urban planning practices 3. a pragmatic approach aiming at deepening reflection on urban sprawl by switching from a descriptive approach of the consequences of the new urban dynamics to an operational approach, aiming at identifying possible avenues of action respecting the principles of sustainable development. This analysis approach provided us with three major results, allowing us to define a strategy to cur-tail urban sprawl. First, if densification is accepted as a strategic objective of urban planning, the model of the dense city can not be applied without taking into consideration other urban planning objectives. Densification does not suffice to reduce the ecological impact of the city and improve the quality of life of its dwellers. The search for a more sustainable urban form depends on a multitude of factors and effects of synergy. Reducing the negative effects of urban sprawl requires the implementation of integrated and concerted urban policies, like for example encouraging densification qualified as resulting from a finalized process, integrating and developing collective forms of transportation and even more so the pedestrian metric with urban planning, integrating diversity on a systematic basis through the physical and social dimensions of the territory. Second, the future of such sprawling territories is not fixed. Our research on the ground revea-led an evolution in the modes of habitat related to ways of life, work organization and mobility that suggest the possibility of the return of a part of the population to the center of cities (end of the rule of the model of the individual home). Thus, the diagnosis and the search for effective and sustainable solutions can not be conceived of independently of the needs of the inhabitants and of the behavior of the actors behind the production of the built territory. In this perspective, any urban program must necessarily be based upon the knowledge of the population's wishes. Third, the successful implementation of a global policy of control of urban sprawl's negative effects is highly influenced by the adaptation of property offer to the demand of new habitat models satisfying both the necessity of urbanization cost controls (economical, social, environ-mental) and people's emerging aspirations. These results allowed us to define a strategy to cur-tail urban sprawl. Its feasibility and conditions of implementation were tested on the territory of the Lausanne agglomeration.

Population receptive field estimates of human auditory cortex.

Here we describe a method for measuring tonotopic maps and estimating bandwidth for voxels in human primary auditory cortex (PAC) using a modification of the population Receptive Field (pRF) model, developed for retinotopic mapping in visual cortex by Dumoulin and Wandell (2008). The pRF method reliably estimates tonotopic maps in the presence of acoustic scanner noise, and has two advantages over phase-encoding techniques. First, the stimulus design is flexible and need not be a frequency progression, thereby reducing biases due to habituation, expectation, and estimation artifacts, as well as reducing the effects of spatio-temporal BOLD nonlinearities. Second, the pRF method can provide estimates of bandwidth as a function of frequency. We find that bandwidth estimates are narrower for voxels within the PAC than in surrounding auditory responsive regions (non-PAC).

INDISIM-YEAST, an individual-based model to study yeast

INDISIM-YEAST, an individual-based simulator, models the evolution of a yeast population by settingup rules of behaviour for each individual cell according to their own biological rules and characteristics. Ittakes into account the uptake, metabolism, budding reproduction and viability of the yeast cells, over aperiod of time in the bulk of a liquid medium, occupying a three dimensional closed spatial grid with twokinds of particles (glucose and ethanol). Each microorganism is characterized by its biomass, genealogicalage, states in the budding cellular reproduction cycle and position in the space among others. Simulationsare carried out for population properties (global properties), as well as for those properties that pertain toindividual yeast cells (microscopic properties). The results of the simulations are in good qualitativeagreement with established experimental trends.

Semivariogram models for estimating fig fly population density throughout the year

The objective of this work was to select semivariogram models to estimate the population density of fig fly (Zaprionus indianus; Diptera: Drosophilidae) throughout the year, using ordinary kriging. Nineteen monitoring sites were demarcated in an area of 8,200 m2, cropped with six fruit tree species: persimmon, citrus, fig, guava, apple, and peach. During a 24 month period, 106 weekly evaluations were done in these sites. The average number of adult fig flies captured weekly per trap, during each month, was subjected to the circular, spherical, pentaspherical, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable semivariogram models, using ordinary kriging interpolation. The models with the best fit were selected by cross-validation. Each data set (months) has a particular spatial dependence structure, which makes it necessary to define specific models of semivariograms in order to enhance the adjustment to the experimental semivariogram. Therefore, it was not possible to determine a standard semivariogram model; instead, six theoretical models were selected: circular, Gaussian, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable.

Interacting populations in heterogeneous environments

To optimally manage a metapopulation, managers and conservation biologists can favor a type of habitat spatial distribution (e.g. aggregated or random). However, the spatial distribution that provides the highest habitat occupancy remains ambiguous and numerous contradictory results exist. Habitat occupancy depends on the balance between local extinction and colonization. Thus, the issue becomes even more puzzling when various forms of relationships - positive or negative co-variation - between local extinction and colonization rate within habitat types exist. Using an analytical model we demonstrate first that the habitat occupancy of a metapopulation is significantly affected by the presence of habitat types that display different extinction-colonization dynamics, considering: (i) variation in extinction or colonization rate and (ii) positive and negative co-variation between the two processes within habitat types. We consequently examine, with a spatially explicit stochastic simulation model, how different degrees of habitat aggregation affect occupancy predictions under similar scenarios. An aggregated distribution of habitat types provides the highest habitat occupancy when local extinction risk is spatially heterogeneous and high in some places, while a random distribution of habitat provides the highest habitat occupancy when colonization rates are high. Because spatial variability in local extinction rates always favors aggregation of habitats, we only need to know about spatial variability in colonization rates to determine whether aggregating habitat types increases, or not, metapopulation occupancy. From a comparison of the results obtained with the analytical and with the spatial-explicit stochastic simulation model we determine the conditions under which a simple metapopulation model closely matches the results of a more complex spatial simulation model with explicit heterogeneity.

The Besançon Galaxy Model renewed. I. Constraints on the Galactic thin disc evolution from Tycho data

Context. The understanding of Galaxy evolution can be facilitated by the use of population synthesis models, which allow to test hypotheses on the star formation history, star evolution, as well as chemical and dynamical evolution of the Galaxy. Aims. The new version of the Besanc¸on Galaxy Model (hereafter BGM) aims to provide a more flexible and powerful tool to investigate the Initial Mass Function (IMF) and Star Formation Rate (SFR) of the Galactic disc. Methods. We present a new strategy for the generation of thin disc stars which assumes the IMF, SFR and evolutionary tracks as free parameters. We have updated most of the ingredients for the star count production and, for the first time, binary stars are generated in a consistent way. We keep in this new scheme the local dynamical self-consistency as in Bienayme et al (1987). We then compare simulations from the new model with Tycho-2 data and the local luminosity function, as a first test to verify and constrain the new ingredients. The effects of changing thirteen different ingredients of the model are systematically studied. Results. For the first time, a full sky comparison is performed between BGM and data. This strategy allows to constrain the IMF slope at high masses which is found to be close to 3.0, excluding a shallower slope such as Salpeter"s one. The SFR is found decreasing whatever IMF is assumed. The model is compatible with a local dark matter density of 0.011 M pc−3 implying that there is no compelling evidence for significant amount of dark matter in the disc. While the model is fitted to Tycho2 data, a magnitude limited sample with V<11, we check that it is still consistent with fainter stars. Conclusions. The new model constitutes a new basis for further comparisons with large scale surveys and is being prepared to become a powerful tool for the analysis of the Gaia mission data.

Population specific and up to date cardiovascular risk charts can be efficiently obtained with record linkage of routine and observational data.

BACKGROUND: Only few countries have cohorts enabling specific and up-to-date cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. Individual risk assessment based on study samples that differ too much from the target population could jeopardize the benefit of risk charts in general practice. Our aim was to provide up-to-date and valid CVD risk estimation for a Swiss population using a novel record linkage approach. METHODS: Anonymous record linkage was used to follow-up (for mortality, until 2008) 9,853 men and women aged 25-74 years who participated in the Swiss MONICA (MONItoring of trends and determinants in CVD) study of 1983-92. The linkage success was 97.8%, loss to follow-up 1990-2000 was 4.7%. Based on the ESC SCORE methodology (Weibull regression), we used age, sex, blood pressure, smoking, and cholesterol to generate three models. We compared the 1) original SCORE model with a 2) recalibrated and a 3) new model using the Brier score (BS) and cross-validation. RESULTS: Based on the cross-validated BS, the new model (BS = 14107×10(-6)) was somewhat more appropriate for risk estimation than the original (BS = 14190×10(-6)) and the recalibrated (BS = 14172×10(-6)) model. Particularly at younger age, derived absolute risks were consistently lower than those from the original and the recalibrated model which was mainly due to a smaller impact of total cholesterol. CONCLUSION: Using record linkage of observational and routine data is an efficient procedure to obtain valid and up-to-date CVD risk estimates for a specific population.

Comorbidity and nutritional indices as predictors of morbidity after transurethral procedures: A prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Preoperative scores are widely used predictors of complications after major surgery. These scores, however, are not widely used in transurethral procedures. The aim of this study was to assess the value of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), the age-adjusted CCI, the American Society of Anesthesiologist score (ASA) and the Nutritional Risk Score (NRS) in predicting early morbidity after transurethral urological procedures. METHODS: Consecutive patients undergoing transurethral resection of the bladder or the prostate were prospectively enrolled. The scores were calculated preoperatively; 30-day complications were prospectively recorded according to the Dindo-Clavien classification. Univariate logistic regression was performed to investigate the value of each score and of other factors (i.e., age, sex, body mass index, anemia, smoking habit, type of operation and anaesthesia) as predictors of complications. A multivariate model was then calculated using these predictors. RESULTS: Overall, 197 patients were included. The mean age was 72 (standard deviation ± 10). In total, 26.9% patients had at least 1 complication. Using univariate analysis, we found that each score significantly predicted complications. In multivariate analysis, only the ASA (odds ration [OR] 2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-4.43) and the NRS (OR 2.42; 95% CI 1.56-3.74) remained independent predictors. The best model incorporated ASA, NRS and gender, and predicted morbidity with an area under the curve of 76%. Our study's main limitations are population heterogeneity and limited sample size. CONCLUSION: The ASA and the NRS are important and independent determinants of early morbidity after transurethral procedures. The use of these indices may assist clinicians in the decision-making process to balance the possible benefits of transurethral procedures with the potential risks.

Enhanced cerebral expression of MCT1 and MCT2 in a rat ischemia model occurs in activated microglial cells.

Monocarboxylate transporters (MCTs) are essential for the use of lactate, an energy substrate known to be overproduced in brain during an ischemic episode. The expression of MCT1 and MCT2 was investigated at 48 h of reperfusion from focal ischemia induced by unilateral extradural compression in Wistar rats. Increased MCT1 mRNA expression was detected in the injured cortex and hippocampus of compressed animals compared to sham controls. In the contralateral, uncompressed hemisphere, increases in MCT1 mRNA level in the cortex and MCT2 mRNA level in the hippocampus were noted. Interestingly, strong MCT1 and MCT2 protein expression was found in peri-lesional macrophages/microglia and in an isolectin B4+/S100beta+ cell population in the corpus callosum. In vitro, MCT1 and MCT2 protein expression was observed in the N11 microglial cell line, whereas an enhancement of MCT1 expression by tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) was shown in these cells. Modulation of MCT expression in microglia suggests that these transporters may help sustain microglial functions during recovery from focal brain ischemia. Overall, our study indicates that changes in MCT expression around and also away from the ischemic area, both at the mRNA and protein levels, are a part of the metabolic adaptations taking place in the brain after ischemia.

A model for organ donation in switzerland, the latin organ donation programme (lodp); an ongoing successful regional initiative

Background: The 1st Swiss federal Transplant Law was finally enforced in July 2007 with the obligation to promote quality and efficiency in transplant procedures. The LODP was created to develop organ and tissue donation in the Latin area of Switzerland covering seventeen hospitals (29% of the population).Methods: Each of the partner hospitals designated at least one Local Donor Coordinator (LDC), member of the Intensive Care team, trained in the organ donation (OD) process. The principal tasks of the LDC's are the introduction of OD procedures, organisation of educational sessions for hospital staff and execution of the Donor Action programme. The LODP has been operational since July 2009, when training of the LDC's was completed, the web-site and hotline activated and the attendance of Transplant Procurement Coordinators (TPC) during the OD process organised.Results: National and regional guidelines are accessible on the LODP website. The Hospital Attitude Survey obtained a 57% return rate. Many of the staff requested training and sessions are now running in the partner hospitals. The Medical Record Revue revealed an increase in the conversion rate from 3.5% to 4.5%. During the 5 years before creation of LODP the average annual number of utilised donors was 31, an increase of 70%, has since been observed.Conclusion: This clear progression in utilised donors in the past two years can be attributed to the fact that partner hospitals benefit from the various support given (hotline, website and from TPC's). Despite the increase in OD within the LODP the Swiss donation rates remain low, on average 11.9 donors per million population. This successful model should be applied throughout Switzerland, but the crucial point is to obtain financial support.

Effectiveness of antioxidants in preventing oxidation of palm oil enriched with heme iron: A model for iron fortification in baked products

Bakery products such as biscuits, cookies, and pastries represent a good medium for iron fortification in food products, since they are consumed by a large proportion of the population at risk of developing iron deficiency anemia, mainly children. The drawback, however, is that iron fortification can promote oxidation. To assess the extent of this, palm oil added with heme iron and different antioxidants was used as a model for evaluating the oxidative stability of some bakery products, such as baked goods containing chocolate. The palm oil samples were heated at 220°C for 10 min to mimic the conditions found during a typical baking processing. The selected antioxidants were a free radical scavenger (tocopherol extract (TE), 0 and 500 mg/kg), an oxygen scavenger (ascorbyl palmitate (AP), 0 and 500 mg/kg), and a chelating agent (citric acid (CA), 0 and 300 mg/kg). These antioxidants were combined using a factorial design and were compared to a control sample, which was not supplemented with antioxidants. Primary (peroxide value and lipid hydroperoxide content) and secondary oxidation parameters (p-anisidine value, p-AnV) were monitored over a period of 200 days in storage at room temperature. The combination of AP and CA was the most effective treatment in delaying the onset of oxidation. TE was not effective in preventing oxidation. The p-AnV did not increase during the storage period, indicating that this oxidation marker was not suitable for monitoring oxidation in this model.

Effectiveness of antioxidants in preventing oxidation of palm oil enriched with heme iron: A model for iron fortification in baked products

Bakery products such as biscuits, cookies, and pastries represent a good medium for iron fortification in food products, since they are consumed by a large proportion of the population at risk of developing iron deficiency anemia, mainly children. The drawback, however, is that iron fortification can promote oxidation. To assess the extent of this, palm oil added with heme iron and different antioxidants was used as a model for evaluating the oxidative stability of some bakery products, such as baked goods containing chocolate. The palm oil samples were heated at 220°C for 10 min to mimic the conditions found during a typical baking processing. The selected antioxidants were a free radical scavenger (tocopherol extract (TE), 0 and 500 mg/kg), an oxygen scavenger (ascorbyl palmitate (AP), 0 and 500 mg/kg), and a chelating agent (citric acid (CA), 0 and 300 mg/kg). These antioxidants were combined using a factorial design and were compared to a control sample, which was not supplemented with antioxidants. Primary (peroxide value and lipid hydroperoxide content) and secondary oxidation parameters (p-anisidine value, p-AnV) were monitored over a period of 200 days in storage at room temperature. The combination of AP and CA was the most effective treatment in delaying the onset of oxidation. TE was not effective in preventing oxidation. The p-AnV did not increase during the storage period, indicating that this oxidation marker was not suitable for monitoring oxidation in this model.