France and the Problems of Security and Disarmament after the First World War

Jackson, Peter, 'France and the Problems of Security and Disarmament after the First World War', Journal of Strategic Studies (2006) 29(2) pp.247-280 Special Issue: Enforcing arms limits: Germany post 1919; Iraq post 1991 RAE2008

'Possession is nine tenths of the law': Britain and the boundaries of Eastern Europe since 1945

Hughes, R. G., ''Possession is nine tenths of the law': Britain and the boundaries of Eastern Europe since 1945', Diplomacy and Statecraft, (2005) 16(4) pp.723-747 RAE2008

Entrepreneurship and rural economic development: a scenario analysis approach

Fuller-Love, N., Midmore, P., Thomas, D., Henley, A. (2006). Entrepreneurship and rural economic development: A scenario analysis approach. International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behaviour and Research, 12 (5), 289-305. RAE2008

Participation by place-based community organisations in local development: case studies from East Cork

The past two decades have witnessed concerted efforts by theorists and policy-makers to place civil society at the centre of social, economic and environmental development processes. To this end, policies grounded in a Third Way approach have sought to forge stronger linkages between the state and voluntary community-based organisations. Concepts such as active citizenship, social capital, partnership and sustainability have underpinned this political philosophy, which reflects a movement in development theory and political science away from notions of state-led development and unfettered neo-liberalism. In the Irish context, a series of initiatives have given expression to this new policy agenda, the foremost amongst them the publication of a White Paper in 2000. New local governance structures and development schemes have multiplied since the early 1990s, while the physical planning system has also been modified. All this has taken place against the backdrop of unprecedented economic development and social change precipitated by the ‘Celtic Tiger’.This thesis examines the interaction between community organisations, state institutions and other actors in development processes in East Cork. It focuses upon place-based community organisations, who seek to represent the interests of their particular localities. A case study approach is employed to explore the realpolitik of local development and to gauge the extent to which grassroots community organisations wield influence in determining the development of their communities. The study concludes that the transfer of decision-making power to community organisations has been more illusory than real and that, in practical terms, such groups remain marginal in the circuits of power. However, the situation of community organisations operating in different geographical locales cannot be reduced to an overarching theoretical logic. The case studies show that the modus operandi of community groups varies considerably and can be influenced by specific local geographies, events and personalities.

Work experience in transition year: a mixed methods study of subject and career choices

Transition Year (TY) has been a feature of the Irish Education landscape for 39 years. Work experience (WE) has become a key component of TY. WE is defined as a module of between five and fifteen days duration where students engage in a work placement in the broader community. It places a major emphasis on building relationships between schools and their external communities and concomitantly between students and their potential future employers. Yet, the idea that participation in a TY work experience programme could facilitate an increased awareness of potential careers has drawn little attention from the research community. This research examines the influence WE has on the subsequent subjects choices made by students along with the effects of that experience on the students’ identities and emerging vocational identities. Socio-cultural Learning Theory and Occupational Choice Theory frame the overall study. A mixed methods approach to data collection was adopted through the administration of 323 quantitative questionnaires and 32 individual semi-structured interviews in three secondary schools. The analysis of the data was conducted using a grounded theory approach. The findings from the research show that WE makes a significant contribution to the students’ sense of agency in their own lives. It facilitates the otherwise complex process of subject choice, motivates students to work harder in their senior cycle, introduces them to the concepts of active, experience-based and self-directed learning, while boosting their self-confidence and nurturing the emergence of their personal and vocational identities. This research is a gateway to further study in this field. It also has wide reaching implications for students, teachers, school authorities, parents and policy makers regarding teaching and learning in our schools and the value of learning beyond the walls of the classroom.

Empirical analysis and improved modelling of natural gas demand in Ireland

Countries across the world are being challenged to decarbonise their energy systems in response to diminishing fossil fuel reserves, rising GHG emissions and the dangerous threat of climate change. There has been a renewed interest in energy efficiency, renewable energy and low carbon energy as policy‐makers seek to identify and put in place the most robust sustainable energy system that can address this challenge. This thesis seeks to improve the evidence base underpinning energy policy decisions in Ireland with a particular focus on natural gas, which in 2011 grew to have a 30% share of Ireland’s TPER. Natural gas is used in all sectors of the Irish economy and is seen by many as a transition fuel to a low-carbon energy system; it is also a uniquely excellent source of data for many aspects of energy consumption. A detailed decomposition analysis of natural gas consumption in the residential sector quantifies many of the structural drives of change, with activity (R2 = 0.97) and intensity (R2 = 0.69) being the best explainers of changing gas demand. The 2002 residential building regulations are subject to an ex-post evaluation, which using empirical data finds a 44 ±9.5% shortfall in expected energy savings as well as a 13±1.6% level of non-compliance. A detailed energy demand model of the entire Irish energy system is presented together with scenario analysis of a large number of energy efficiency policies, which show an aggregate reduction in TFC of 8.9% compared to a reference scenario. The role for natural gas as a transition fuel over a long time horizon (2005-2050) is analysed using an energy systems model and a decomposition analysis, which shows the contribution of fuel switching to natural gas to be worth 12 percentage points of an overall 80% reduction in CO2 emissions. Finally, an analysis of the potential for CCS in Ireland finds gas CCS to be more robust than coal CCS for changes in fuel prices, capital costs and emissions reduction and the cost optimal location for a gas CCS plant in Ireland is found to be in Cork with sequestration in the depleted gas field of Kinsale.

Bottom-up modelling of energy demand and technical energy savings potential in the Irish residential sector

The International Energy Agency has repeatedly identified increased end-use energy efficiency as the quickest, least costly method of green house gas mitigation, most recently in the 2012 World Energy Outlook, and urges all governing bodies to increase efforts to promote energy efficiency policies and technologies. The residential sector is recognised as a major potential source of cost effective energy efficiency gains. Within the EU this relative importance can be seen from a review of the National Energy Efficiency Action Plans (NEEAP) submitted by member states, which in all cases place a large emphasis on the residential sector. This is particularly true for Ireland whose residential sector has historically had higher energy consumption and CO2 emissions than the EU average and whose first NEEAP targeted 44% of the energy savings to be achieved in 2020 from this sector. This thesis develops a bottom-up engineering archetype modelling approach to analyse the Irish residential sector and to estimate the technical energy savings potential of a number of policy measures. First, a model of space and water heating energy demand for new dwellings is built and used to estimate the technical energy savings potential due to the introduction of the 2008 and 2010 changes to part L of the building regulations governing energy efficiency in new dwellings. Next, the author makes use of a valuable new dataset of Building Energy Rating (BER) survey results to first characterise the highly heterogeneous stock of existing dwellings, and then to estimate the technical energy savings potential of an ambitious national retrofit programme targeting up to 1 million residential dwellings. This thesis also presents work carried out by the author as part of a collaboration to produce a bottom-up, multi-sector LEAP model for Ireland. Overall this work highlights the challenges faced in successfully implementing both sets of policy measures. It points to the wide potential range of final savings possible from particular policy measures and the resulting high degree of uncertainty as to whether particular targets will be met and identifies the key factors on which the success of these policies will depend. It makes recommendations on further modelling work and on the improvements necessary in the data available to researchers and policy makers alike in order to develop increasingly sophisticated residential energy demand models and better inform policy.

Risk management and the potential of cattle insurance in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia

This study explores the role of livestock insurance to complement existing risk management strategies adopted by smallholder farmers. Using survey data, first, it provides insights into farmers’ risk perception of livestock farming, in terms of likelihood and severity of risk, attitude to risk and their determinants. Second, it examines farmers’ risk management strategies and their determinants. Third, it investigates farmers’ potential engagement with a hypothetical cattle insurance decision and their intensity of participation. Factor analysis is used to analyse risk sources and risk management, multiple regressions are used to identify the determinants; a Heckman model was used to investigate cattle insurance participation and intensity of participation. The findings show different groups of farmers display different risk attitude in their decision-making related to livestock farming. Production risk (especially livestock diseases) was perceived as the most likely and severe source of risk. Disease control was perceived as the best strategy to manage risk overall. Disease control and feed management were important strategies to mitigate the production risks. Disease control and participation on safety net program were found to be important to counter households’ financial risks. With regard to the hypothetical cattle insurance scheme, 94.38% of households were interested to participate in cattle insurance. Of those households that accepted cattle insurance, 77.38% of the households were willing to pay the benchmark annual premium of 4% of the animal value while for the remaining households this was not affordable. The average number of cattle that farmers were willing to insure was 2.71 at this benchmark. Results revealed that income (log income) and education levels influenced positively and significantly farmers’ participation in cattle insurance and the number of cattle to insure. The findings prompt policy makers to consider livestock insurance as a complement to existing risk management strategies to reduce poverty in the long-run.

Climate and energy scenarios for Ireland to 2050 using the Irish TIMES energy systems model

Due to growing concerns regarding the anthropogenic interference with the climate system, countries across the world are being challenged to develop effective strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing or preventing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The European Union (EU) is committed to contribute to this challenge by setting a number of climate and energy targets for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 and then agreeing effort sharing amongst Member States. This thesis focus on one Member State, Ireland, which faces specific challenges and is not on track to meet the targets agreed to date. Before this work commenced, there were no projections of energy demand or supply for Ireland beyond 2020. This thesis uses techno-economic energy modelling instruments to address this knowledge gap. It builds and compares robust, comprehensive policy scenarios, providing a means of assessing the implications of different future energy and emissions pathways for the Irish economy, Ireland’s energy mix and the environment. A central focus of this thesis is to explore the dynamics of the energy system moving towards a low carbon economy. This thesis develops an energy systems model (the Irish TIMES model) to assess the implications of a range of energy and climate policy targets and target years. The thesis also compares the results generated from the least cost scenarios with official projections and target pathways and provides useful metrics and indications to identify key drivers and to support both policy makers and stakeholder in identifying cost optimal strategies. The thesis also extends the functionality of energy system modelling by developing and applying new methodologies to provide additional insights with a focus on particular issues that emerge from the scenario analysis carried out. Firstly, the thesis develops a methodology for soft-linking an energy systems model (Irish TIMES) with a power systems model (PLEXOS) to improve the interpretation of the electricity sector results in the energy system model. The soft-linking enables higher temporal resolution and improved characterisation of power plants and power system operation Secondly, the thesis develops a methodology for the integration of agriculture and energy systems modelling to enable coherent economy wide climate mitigation scenario analysis. This provides a very useful starting point for considering the trade-offs between the energy system and agriculture in the context of a low carbon economy and for enabling analysis of land-use competition. Three specific time scale perspectives are examined in this thesis (2020, 2030, 2050), aligning with key policy target time horizons. The results indicate that Ireland’s short term mandatory emissions reduction target will not be achieved without a significant reassessment of renewable energy policy and that the current dominant policy focus on wind-generated electricity is misplaced. In the medium to long term, the results suggest that energy efficiency is the first cost effective measure to deliver emissions reduction; biomass and biofuels are likely to be the most significant fuel source for Ireland in the context of a low carbon future prompting the need for a detailed assessment of possible implications for sustainability and competition with the agri-food sectors; significant changes are required in infrastructure to deliver deep emissions reductions (to enable the electrification of heat and transport, to accommodate carbon capture and storage facilities (CCS) and for biofuels); competition between energy and agriculture for land-use will become a key issue. The purpose of this thesis is to increase the evidence-based underpinning energy and climate policy decisions in Ireland. The methodology is replicable in other Member States.

Literatur verstehen und inszenieren: Foreign language literature through drama, a research project

Based on the experience that today's students find it more difficult than students of previous decades to relate to literature and appreciate its high cultural value, this paper argues that too little is known about the actual teaching and learning processes which take place in literature courses and that, in order to ensure the survival of literary studies in German curricula, future research needs to elucidate for students, the wider public and, most importantly, educational policy makers, why the study of literature should continue to have an important place in modern language curricula. Contending that students' willingness to engage with literature will, in the future, depend to a great extent on the use of imaginative methodology on the part of the teacher, we give a detailed account of an action research project carried out at University College Cork from October to December 2002 which set out to explore the potential of a drama in education approach to the teaching and learning of foreign language literature. We give concrete examples of how this approach works in practice, situate our approach within the subject debate surrounding Drama and the Language Arts and evaluate in detail the learning processes which are typical of performance-based literature learning. Based on converging evidence from different data sources and overall very positive feedback from students, we conclude by recommending that modern language departments introduce courses which offer a hands-on experience of literature that is different from that encountered in lectures and teacher-directed seminars.

Transitions: From novice participation to expertise, pre-school 'matters' in an Irish pre-school community

This in depth, qualitative, participant observer study tracks children's transition experiences from novice to experienced membership of their pre-school community. It also considers adult roles in mediating this process in the context of the recent introduction of a universal free-pre-school year for children growing up in Ireland. Participation and the space to negotiate a participatory identity is understood in this study as a key element of positive experiences of early years transitions, within pre-school and beyond. The underlying theoretical framework is socio-cultural. This approach shifts from a scientific positivist view of thinking and learning as an individual inside the head process and asserts the historical, social, cultural as well as the situated context of learning and meaning making All participants, including myself as researcher, are recognised, explored and valued as embedded in the cultural context studied. In a sense, this approach tilts the worlds being observed through participation in them and reflects them in new light. The aim is to interpret and reflect the multiple realities constructed in this context rather than seek a truth out there waiting to be found. Special efforts are made to be invited in to and acknowledge children's expertise in the cultural worlds they negotiate with peers and adults in pre-school. The aim is to better understand what children may find motivating, interesting or problematic as they interpret reproduce and transform meaning within their play and learning worlds. My aim is for an honest rendering of the voices of stakeholders in pre-school communities from teachers, parents, and policy makers to children themselves. It makes visible constraints; potentials and possibilities within everyday Irish pre-school practices in the situated context studied as well as the broader societal, legislative and macro policy influences it reflects. Casting light on the taken for granted opens the possibility of adaptation or transformation. Transition itself can act as a tool to meet the changing needs of children on their developmental pathways across the life cycle

Can exchange rates forecast commodity prices?

We show that "commodity currency" exchange rates have surprisingly robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policy makers, given the lack of deep forward markets in many individual commodities, and broad aggregate commodity indices in particular. We also explore the reverse relationship (commodity prices forecasting exchange rates) but find it to be notably less robust. We offer a theoretical resolution, based on the fact that exchange rates are strongly forward-looking, whereas commodity price fluctuations are typically more sensitive to short-term demand imbalances. © 2010 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Child work and labour among orphaned and abandoned children in five low and middle income countries.

BACKGROUND: The care and protection of the estimated 143,000,000 orphaned and abandoned children (OAC) worldwide is of great importance to global policy makers and child service providers in low and middle income countries (LMICs), yet little is known about rates of child labour among OAC, what child and caregiver characteristics predict child engagement in work and labour, or when such work infers with schooling. This study examines rates and correlates of child labour among OAC and associations of child labour with schooling in a cohort of OAC in 5 LMICs. METHODS: The Positive Outcomes for Orphans (POFO) study employed a two-stage random sampling survey methodology to identify 1480 single and double orphans and children abandoned by both parents ages 6-12 living in family settings in five LMICs: Cambodia, Ethiopia, India, Kenya, and Tanzania. Regression models examined child and caregiver associations with: any work versus no work; and with working <21, 21-27, and 28+ hours during the past week, and child labour (UNICEF definition). RESULTS: The majority of OAC (60.7%) engaged in work during the past week, and of those who worked, 17.8% (10.5% of the total sample) worked 28 or more hours. More than one-fifth (21.9%; 13% of the total sample) met UNICEF's child labour definition. Female OAC and those in good health had increased odds of working. OAC living in rural areas, lower household wealth and caregivers not earning an income were associated with increased child labour. Child labour, but not working fewer than 28 hours per week, was associated with decreased school attendance. CONCLUSIONS: One in seven OAC in this study were reported to be engaged in child labour. Policy makers and social service providers need to pay close attention to the demands being placed on female OAC, particularly in rural areas and poor households with limited income sources. Programs to promote OAC school attendance may need to focus on the needs of families as well as the OAC.

Entry and competition in generic biologics

Patents for several blockbuster biological products are expected to expire soon. The Food and Drug Administration is examining whether biologies can and should be treated like pharmaceuticals with regard to generics. In contrast with pharmaceuticals, which are manufactured through chemical synthesis, biologies are manufactured through fermentation, a process that is more variable and costly. Regulators might require extensive clinical testing of generic biologies to demonstrate equivalence to the branded product. The focus of the debate on generic biologies has been on legal and health concerns, but there are important economic implications. We combine a theoretical model of generic biologies with regression estimates from generic pharmaceuticals to estimate market entry and prices in the generic biologic market. We find that generic biologies will have high fixed costs from clinical testing and from manufacturing, so there will be less entry than would be expected for generic pharmaceuticals. With fewer generic competitors, generic biologies will be relatively close in price to branded biologies. Policy makers should be prudent in estimating financial benefits of generic biologies for consumers and payers. We also examine possible government strategies to promote generic competition. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cost Heterogeneity and the Potential Savings from Market-Based Policies

Policy makers and analysts are often faced with situations where it is unclear whether market-based instruments hold real promise of reducing costs, relative to conventional uniform standards. We develop analytic expressions that can be employed with modest amounts of information to estimate the potential cost savings associated with market-based policies, with an application to the environmental policy realm. These simple formulae can identify instruments that merit more detailed investigation. We illustrate the use of these results with an application to nitrogen oxides control by electric utilities in the United States.