Temporal variation, dormancy, and coexistence: A field test of the storage effect

Theoretical models suggest that overlapping generations, in combination with a temporally fluctuating environment, may allow the persistence of competitors that otherwise would not coexist. Despite extensive theoretical development, this “storage effect” hypothesis has received little empirical attention. Herein I present the first explicit mathematical analysis of the contribution of the storage effect to the dynamics of competing natural populations. In Oneida Lake, NY, data collected over the past 30 years show a striking negative correlation between the water-column densities of two species of suspension-feeding zooplankton, Daphnia galeata mendotae and Daphnia pulicaria. I have demonstrated competition between these two species and have shown that both possess long-lived eggs that establish overlapping generations. Moreover, recruitment to this long-lived stage varies annually, so that both daphnids have years in which they are favored (for recruitment) relative to their competitor. When the long-term population growth rates are calculated both with and without the effects of a variable environment, I show that D. galeata mendotae clearly cannot persist without the environmental variation and prolonged dormancy (i.e., storage effect) whereas D. pulicaria persists through consistently high per capita recruitment to the long-lived stage.

From patterns to processes: Phase and density dependencies in the Canadian lynx cycle

Across the boreal forest of North America, lynx populations undergo 10-year cycles. Analysis of 21 time series from 1821 to the present demonstrates that these fluctuations are generated by nonlinear processes with regulatory delays. Trophic interactions between lynx and hares cause delayed density-dependent regulation of lynx population growth. The nonlinearity, in contrast, appears to arise from phase dependencies in hunting success by lynx through the cycle. Using a combined approach of empirical, statistical, and mathematical modeling, we highlight how shifts in trophic interactions between the lynx and the hare generate the nonlinear process primarily by shifting functional response curves during the increase and the decrease phases.

Biogeographic range expansion into South America by Coccidioides immitis mirrors New World patterns of human migration

Long-distance population dispersal leaves its characteristic signature in genomes, namely, reduced diversity and increased linkage between genetic markers. This signature enables historical patterns of range expansion to be traced. Herein, we use microsatellite loci from the human pathogen Coccidioides immitis to show that genetic diversity in this fungus is geographically partitioned throughout North America. In contrast, analyses of South American C. immitis show that this population is genetically depauperate and was founded from a single North American population centered in Texas. Variances of allele distributions show that South American C. immitis have undergone rapid population growth, consistent with an epidemic increase in postcolonization population size. Herein, we estimate the introduction into South America to have occurred within the last 9,000–140,000 years. This range increase parallels that of Homo sapiens. Because of known associations between Amerindians and this fungus, we suggest that the colonization of South America by C. immitis represents a relatively recent and rapid codispersal of a host and its pathogen.

A demographic approach to selection

The concepts of demography provide a means of combining the ecological approach to population growth with the genetical approach to natural selection. We have utilized the demographic theory of natural selection developed by Norton and Charlesworth to analyze life history schedules of births and deaths for populations of genotypes in Drosophila pseudoobscura. Our populations illustrate a stable genetic equilibrium, an unstable genetic equilibrium, and a case of no equilibrium. We have estimated population growth rates and Darwinian fitnesses of the genotypes and have explored the role of population growth in determining natural selection. The age-specific rates of births and deaths provide insights into components of selection. Both viability and fertility are important components in our populations.

Patterns of variance in stage-structured populations: Evolutionary predictions and ecological implications

Variability in population growth rate is thought to have negative consequences for organism fitness. Theory for matrix population models predicts that variance in population growth rate should be the sum of the variance in each matrix entry times the squared sensitivity term for that matrix entry. I analyzed the stage-specific demography of 30 field populations from 17 published studies for pattern between the variance of a demographic term and its contribution to population growth. There were no instances in which a matrix entry both was highly variable and had a large effect on population growth rate; instead, correlations between estimates of temporal variance in a term and contribution to population growth (sensitivity or elasticity) were overwhelmingly negative. In addition, survivorship or growth sensitivities or elasticities always exceeded those of fecundity, implying that the former two terms always contributed more to population growth rate. These results suggest that variable life history stages tend to contribute relatively little to population growth rates because natural selection may alter life histories to minimize stages with both high sensitivity and high variation.

Modeling and optimization of populations subject to time-dependent mutation.

It has become clear that many organisms possess the ability to regulate their mutation rate in response to environmental conditions. So the question of finding an optimal mutation rate must be replaced by that of finding an optimal mutation schedule. We show that this task cannot be accomplished with standard population-dynamic models. We then develop a "hybrid" model for populations experiencing time-dependent mutation that treats population growth as deterministic but the time of first appearance of new variants as stochastic. We show that the hybrid model agrees well with a Monte Carlo simulation. From this model, we derive a deterministic approximation, a "threshold" model, that is similar to standard population dynamic models but differs in the initial rate of generation of new mutants. We use these techniques to model antibody affinity maturation by somatic hypermutation. We had previously shown that the optimal mutation schedule for the deterministic threshold model is phasic, with periods of mutation between intervals of mutation-free growth. To establish the validity of this schedule, we now show that the phasic schedule that optimizes the deterministic threshold model significantly improves upon the best constant-rate schedule for the hybrid and Monte Carlo models.

Free living astigmatid mites (Astigmatina): new taxa, rearing and use for mesostigmatid (Mesostigmata) predatory mite production

The cohort Astigmatina is divided in two major groups: Psoroptidia, composed mainly by feather and fur mites, and Non-psoroptidia, a dominant component of the acarofauna in ephemeral habitats. In these environments Astigmatina usually are saprophages or feed on fungi or bacteria. Astigmatina protonymphs undergo a complete reorganization of the body structure leading to the production of heteromorphic deutonymphs, generally specialized for dispersion through phoresy using arthropods and vertebrates as phoronts. Although most Astigmatina occur in natural environments, some species live in anthropic environments, such as food deposits, where some of them became pests; some Astigmatina infest subterraneous plant organs. Despite their economic and ecological importance, studies on the diversity and taxonomy of Astigmatina in Brazil have been rare over the last decades. The general objective of this thesis was to collaborate to the knowledge of the diversity and to evaluate the potential practical uses of these mites in Brazil. For this, new genera and species were described, method for rearing dust mites was studied and the efficiency of Astigmatina as prey for edaphic predators was evaluated. A new species of Thyreophagus (Astigmatina: Acaridae) was described based on specimens collected in Brazil, the association of three other species of this genus with stored food was reviewed and a key to all species of this genus was prepared. The genus Neotropacarus (Astigmatina: Acaridae), commonly found on plant leaves, was reviewed with the redescription of two species and description of new species collected in Brazil and from the Philippines. Two new genera and seven new species of Acaridae associated with the bee family Apidae was described and a key to Acaridae genera in subfamily Horstiinae was prepared. Several species of Astigmatina were evaluated as prey for predatory mites Stratiolaelaps scimitus (Womersley) (Mesostigmata: Laelapidae) and Protogamasellopsis zaheri Abo-Shnaf, Castilho and Moraes (Mesostigmata: Rhodacaridae), which oviposited on all evaluated astigmatids, with Tyrophagus putrescentiae (Schrank) and Aleuroglyphus ovatus (Tropeau) (Acaridae) being the most suitable prey. Seven foods and two development period, 30 and 60 days, after the introduction of 400 females of two important dust mite species, Blomia tropicalis van Bronswijk, de Cock e Oshima and Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus (Trouessart) were evaluate. With the most suitable foods, the population growth were higher than 20.2 and 15.3 for B. tropicalis and D. pteronyssinus, respectively.

The Environmental Costs of Automobile-Centric Transportation Planning

Since the passage of the Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956, the automobile has become the primary form of transportation on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. As the rate of motor vehicle use continues to rise faster than population growth, the benefits of the current transportation system are coming at a price that rivals annual household expenditures for housing. Furthermore, the automobile-centric transportation system incurs environmental costs. Carbon dioxide emissions, motor fuel use, health care costs for chronic illness, and the loss and impairment of natural resources due to sprawling development, continue to escalate. This project analyzes the environmental costs associated with automobile-centric planning for the urbanized area of the Mississippi Gulf Coast and compares these costs to those of alternative transportation modes.

Trees as Tools in Environmental Improvement; An Analysis of the Contribution of Vegetation to Energy and Water Conservation in the Front Range of Colorado

The Denver metropolitan area is facing rapid population growth that increases the stress on already limited resources. Research and advanced computer modeling show that trees, especially those in urban areas, have significant environmental benefits. These benefits include air quality improvements, energy savings, greenhouse gas reduction, and possible water conservation. This Capstone Project applies statistical methods to analyze a small data set of residential homes and their energy and water consumption, as a function of their individual landscape. Results indicate that tree shade can influence water conservation, and that irrigation methods can be an influential factor as well. The Capstone is a preliminary analysis for future study to be performed by the Institute for Environmental Solutions in 2007.

Managing Recreational Impacts on the Northeast corner of the Lake Fayetteville Nature Trail in Fayetteville, AR

Increased population growth of the Northwest Corner of Arkansas is straining the natural resources of the Lake Fayetteville Nature Trail, Fayetteville, AR. Recreational activities conducted on this single track multi-use trail are mountain biking, walking, jogging and wildlife viewing. Impacts evident on the NE section of the trail consist of erosion, vegetation, wildlife and conflict disturbances. Throughout this paper recommendations of management solutions and maintenance ideas are presented. Control of recreation impacts will help the longevity of the trail and maintain the aesthetics for present and future trail users.

Agriculture and sustainable development: The role of small scale agriculture in obtaining food security

The international community has expressed a renewed interest in small scale agriculture and the role it plays in long-term food security in the face of climate change and population growth. This interest has led to a new development paradigm in which small scale producers are being brought into the global market. Undoubtedly, small scale agriculture should be pursued as a sustainable form of development which can contribute to poverty alleviation, environmental stewardship, and the preservation of genetic diversity. These unique contributions are inherently threatened by a system captured in the idea of the neoliberal food regime. The ability of small scale agriculture to uphold the goals of food security are dependent on recognition and preservation of these contributions.

Análisis de encuestas como herramienta de gestión sostenible de especies cinegéticas en agrosistemas del este de la provincia de Alicante (Marina Baja): estudio del caso del jabalí Sus scrofa Linnaeus, 1758

El trabajo ha sido desarrollado en un agrosistema tradicional del NE de la provincia de Alicante (SE España). La superficie total del área de estudio es de aproximadamente 59.000 ha. La zona presenta grandes contrastes, con un área interior de morfología montañosa, con pequeñas cuencas dedicadas a la agricultura de secano, mientras que la zona litoral se caracteriza por un relieve menos abrupto, con núcleos de población y explotaciones agrícolas de regadío. El estudio se basa en la información extraída a partir de encuestas realizadas a los gestores cinegéticos, obteniendo datos acerca de las abundancias y la evolución de las poblaciones de jabalí entre los años 1980 y la actualidad. Se construye una base de datos SIG con un total de 15 cotos de caza. La base de datos incluye las siguientes variables: usos del suelo a nivel de coto, abundancias y evolución temporal de la especie. Los resultados muestran que dos de los cotos presentan densidades de jabalí elevadas (15-25 ind/ha), dos cotos presentan densidades medias (10-15 ind/ha), cinco cotos muestran densidades bajas (5-10 ind/ha) y otros seis cotos densidades muy bajas (0-5 ind/ha). Los valores máximos se encuentran en cotos de interior y de montaña donde todavía se mantienen en activo cultivos de secano y se intercalan con cultivos abandonados y áreas naturales. También se observan densidades elevadas en el único coto de todos los analizados que se encuentra en la costa, donde la disponibilidad de hábitat es menor y, por lo tanto, hay una mayor concentración de individuos. Finalmente, el jabalí ha aumentado sus poblaciones desde la década de los años 1980 en la totalidad de los cotos estudiados.

Análisis multitemporal del cambio de uso del suelo, en el Paisaje Terrestre Protegido Miraflor Moropotente Nicaragua, 1993-2011

El análisis multitemporal permite detectar cambios entre diferentes fechas de referencia, deduciendo la evolución del medio natural o las repercusiones de la acción humana sobre el medio. El propósito del estudio fue evaluar el cambio de uso del suelo en el Paisaje Terrestre Miraflor Moropotente en el período 1993-2011, a través de imágenes satelitales, a fin de determinar el estado de fragmentación del paisaje. Los cambios de usos de suelo fueron derivados de la clasificación de tres imágenes Landsat TM, con una resolución espacial de 30 metros tomadas en febrero de 1993, abril de 2000 y enero 2011. Se realizó una verificación en campo para la identificación de coberturas de suelo y la corroboración en las imágenes satelitales. La fragmentación se realizó con el cálculo de métricas e índices de fragmentación a nivel del paisaje. Los principales resultados muestran que los cambios de uso de suelo están determinados por la degradación antrópica, principalmente en la conversión de la vegetación nativa a espacios agrícolas y la expansión de la ganadería. El crecimiento demográfico y los monocultivos van ejerciendo presión sobre el bosque, transformando zonas de vocación forestal a cultivos agrícolas. Los cambios de cobertura han significado un paisaje fragmentado con diferentes grados de perturbación, que conllevan a una disminución de la superficie de hábitats naturales, reducción del tamaño de los fragmentos y aislamientos de los mismos.

Building from building waste: The development of an instrument to determine the circularity of materials from the existing building stock in order to maximise high quality reuse

On a global level the population growth and increase of the middle class lead to a growing demand on material resources. The built environment has an enormous impact on this scarcity. In addition, a surplus of construction and demolition waste is a common problem. The construction industry claims to recycle 95% of this waste but this is in fact mainly downcycling. Towards the circular economy, the quality of reuse becomes of increasing importance. Buildings are material warehouses that can contribute to this high quality reuse. However, several aspects to achieve this are unknown and a need for more insight into the potential for high quality reuse of building materials exists. Therefore an instrument has been developed that determines the circularity of construction waste in order to maximise high quality reuse. The instrument is based on three principles: ‘product and material flows in the end of life phase’, ‘future value of secondary materials and products’ and ‘the success of repetition in a new life cycle’. These principles are further divided into a number of criteria to which values and weighting factors are assigned. A degree of circularity can then be determined as a percentage. A case study for a typical 70s building is carried out. For concrete, the circularity is increased from 25% to 50% by mapping out the potential for high quality reuse. During the development of the instrument it was clarified that some criteria are difficult to measure. Accurate and reliable data are limited and assumptions had to be made. To increase the reliability of the instrument, experts have reviewed the instrument several times. In the long-term, the instrument can be used as a tool for quantitative research to reduce the amount of construction and demolition waste and contribute to the reduction of raw material scarcity.

Demographic situation in Russia. OSW Study 24/2006

Throughout the history of Russia, periods of deep chaos have been accompanied by demographic crises. This was the case during the Time of Troubles, or Smutnoye Vremya, in the seventeenth century, and during the period of wars and revolutions in the early twentieth century, which brought the Bolsheviks to power. Similarly, the break-up of the USSR also coincided with a demographic crisis. However, while the previous crises had been caused by factors such as war, famine, epidemics or repressive policies, and were followed by periods of rapid population growth once these factors had ceased to operate, the current crisis is systemic and structural. To a large extent, it has been occasioned by cultural factors such as changing family models and the roles of women in today's society. In Russia, the effect of these factors on population increase is exacerbated by excessive alcohol consumption, an culture of inadequate working conditions which leads to many accidents at work, and healthcare deficiencies (only c. 3% of the GDP is spent on healthcare annually).