Regional-scale debris-flow risk assessment for an alpine valley

In this paper, we perform a societal and economic risk assessment for debris flows at the regional scale, for lower Valtellina, Northern Italy. We apply a simple empirical debris-flow model, FLOW-R, which couples a probabilistic flow routing algorithm with an energy line approach, providing the relative probability of transit, and the maximum kinetic energy, for each cell. By assessing a vulnerability to people and to other exposed elements (buildings, public facilities, crops, woods, communication lines), and their economic value, we calculated the expected annual losses both in terms of lives (societal risk) and goods (direct economic risk). For societal risk assessment, we distinguish for the day and night scenarios. The distribution of people at different moments of the day was considered, accounting for the occupational and recreational activities, to provide a more realistic assessment of risk. Market studies were performed in order to assess a realistic economic value to goods, structures, and lifelines. As terrain unit, a 20 m x 20 m cell was used, in accordance with data availability and the spatial resolution requested for a risk assessment at this scale. Societal risk the whole area amounts to 1.98 and 4.22 deaths/year for the day and the night scenarios, respectively, with a maximum of 0.013 deaths/year/cell. Economic risk for goods amounts to 1,760,291 ?/year, with a maximum of 13,814 ?/year/cell.

The Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Despite recent advances in acute stroke treatment, basilar artery occlusion (BAO) is associated with a death or disability rate of close to 70%. Randomised trials have shown the safety and efficacy of intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) given within 4.5 h and have shown promising results of intra-arterial thrombolysis given within 6 h of symptom onset of acute ischaemic stroke, but these results do not directly apply to patients with an acute BAO because only few, if any, of these patients were included in randomised acute stroke trials.Recently the results of the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS), a prospective registry of patients with acute symptomatic BAO challenged the often-held assumption that intra-arterial treatment (IAT) is superior to IVT. Our observations in the BASICS registry underscore that we continue to lack a proven treatment modality for patients with an acute BAO and that current clinical practice varies widely. DESIGN: BASICS is a randomised controlled, multicentre, open label, phase III intervention trial with blinded outcome assessment, investigating the efficacy and safety of additional IAT after IVT in patients with BAO. The trial targets to include 750 patients, aged 18 to 85 years, with CT angiography or MR angiography confirmed BAO treated with IVT. Patients will be randomised between additional IAT followed by optimal medical care versus optimal medical care alone. IVT has to be initiated within 4.5 h from estimated time of BAO and IAT within 6 h. The primary outcome parameter will be favourable outcome at day 90 defined as a modified Rankin Scale score of 0-3. DISCUSSION: The BASICS registry was observational and has all the limitations of a non-randomised study. As the IAT approach becomes increasingly available and frequently utilised an adequately powered randomised controlled phase III trial investigating the added value of this therapy in patients with an acute symptomatic BAO is needed (clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01717755).

Adaptation of AHRQ patient safety indicators for use in ICD-10 administrative data by an international consortium.

Objective: The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) developed Patient Safety Indicators (PSIs) for use with ICD-9-CM data. Many countries have adopted ICD-10 for coding hospital diagnoses. We conducted this study to develop an internationally harmonized ICD-10 coding algorithm for the AHRQ PSIs. Methods: The AHRQ PSI Version 2.1 has been translated into ICD-10-AM (Australian Modification), and PSI Version 3.0a has been independently translated into ICD-10-GM (German Modification). We converted these two country-specific coding algorithms into ICD-10-WHO (World Health Organization version) and combined them to form one master list. Members of an international expert panel-including physicians, professional medical coders, disease classification specialists, health services researchers, epidemiologists, and users of the PSI-independently evaluated this master list and rated each code as either "include," "exclude," or "uncertain," following the AHRQ PSI definitions. After summarizing the independent rating results, we held a face-to-face meeting to discuss codes for which there was no unanimous consensus and newly proposed codes. A modified Delphi method was employed to generate a final ICD-10 WHO coding list. Results: Of 20 PSIs, 15 that were based mainly on diagnosis codes were selected for translation. At the meeting, panelists discussed 794 codes for which consensus had not been achieved and 2,541 additional codes that were proposed by individual panelists for consideration prior to the meeting. Three documents were generated: a PSI ICD-10-WHO version-coding list, a list of issues for consideration on certain AHRQ PSIs and ICD-9-CM codes, and a recommendation to WHO to improve specification of some disease classifications. Conclusion: An ICD-10-WHO PSI coding list has been developed and structured in a manner similar to the AHRQ manual. Although face validity of the list has been ensured through a rigorous expert panel assessment, its true validity and applicability should be assessed internationally.

An electronic portfolio for quantitative assessment of surgical skills in undergraduate medical education.

BACKGROUND We evaluated a newly designed electronic portfolio (e-Portfolio) that provided quantitative evaluation of surgical skills. Medical students at the University of Seville used the e-Portfolio on a voluntary basis for evaluation of their performance in undergraduate surgical subjects. METHODS Our new web-based e-Portfolio was designed to evaluate surgical practical knowledge and skills targets. Students recorded each activity on a form, attached evidence, and added their reflections. Students self-assessed their practical knowledge using qualitative criteria (yes/no), and graded their skills according to complexity (basic/advanced) and participation (observer/assistant/independent). A numerical value was assigned to each activity, and the values of all activities were summated to obtain the total score. The application automatically displayed quantitative feedback. We performed qualitative evaluation of the perceived usefulness of the e-Portfolio and quantitative evaluation of the targets achieved. RESULTS Thirty-seven of 112 students (33%) used the e-Portfolio, of which 87% reported that they understood the methodology of the portfolio. All students reported an improved understanding of their learning objectives resulting from the numerical visualization of progress, all students reported that the quantitative feedback encouraged their learning, and 79% of students felt that their teachers were more available because they were using the e-Portfolio. Only 51.3% of students reported that the reflective aspects of learning were useful. Individual students achieved a maximum of 65% of the total targets and 87% of the skills targets. The mean total score was 345 ± 38 points. For basic skills, 92% of students achieved the maximum score for participation as an independent operator, and all achieved the maximum scores for participation as an observer and assistant. For complex skills, 62% of students achieved the maximum score for participation as an independent operator, and 98% achieved the maximum scores for participation as an observer or assistant. CONCLUSIONS Medical students reported that use of an electronic portfolio that provided quantitative feedback on their progress was useful when the number and complexity of targets were appropriate, but not when the portfolio offered only formative evaluations based on reflection. Students felt that use of the e-Portfolio guided their learning process by indicating knowledge gaps to themselves and teachers.

An integrated approach for the assessment of HAB dynamics in two NW Mediterranean bays from a GEOHAB perspective

Alfacs and Fangar Bay in the Ebro Delta, NW Mediterranean are the major sites in Catalonia for shellfish cultivation. These bays are subject to occasional closures in shellfish harvesting due to the presence of phycotoxins. Fish kills have also been associated with harmful algal blooms. The comparison of phytoplankton dynamics in both bays offers the opportunity to reveal differences in bloom patterns of species known to be harmful for the ecosystem and aquaculture activities. Field research is underway under the GEOHAB framework within the Core Research Project on HABs in Fjords and Coastal Embayments. The overall objective of this study is to improve our understanding of HAB biogeographical patterns, and key elements driving bloom dynamics in time and space within these semi-constrained embayments. Via the comparative approach we aim to improve the prediction for monitoring purposes, with a focus on Karlodinium spp. associated with massive kills of aquaculture species. This objective is addressed by incorporating long-term time series of phytoplankton identification and enumeration with the first results of recent field work in both bays. The latter includes the application of optical sensors, to yield a complementary view with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution of bloom phenomena.

Programme vaudois de dépistage du cancer du sein : évaluation après 15 ans, 1999-2013

Le Programme vaudois de dépistage du cancer du sein promeut, organise et mène depuis 1999 une action de prévention auprès de la population féminine du canton âgée de 50 à 69 ans. Premier programme organisé de dépistage du cancer en Suisse, et généralisation d'un projet pilote (1993-1998), le Programme vaudois a grandement contribué au développement d'initiatives similaires dans d'autres cantons. Il demeure aujourd'hui, notamment par son bassin populationnel, le programme suisse qui génère le plus important volume annuel de mammographies de dépistage. Des évaluations indépendantes et régulières permettent de s'assurer que la qualité et l'efficacité d'un programme de dépistage répondent à des normes internationalement admises et périodiquement révisées. Le présent rapport évalue, après 15 ans d'activité (1999-2013), l'évolution temporelle de l'activité de dépistage (chapitre 2), de l'utilisation (chapitre 3) et des performances du programme vaudois de dépistage du cancer du sein (chapitre 4). Couvrant 240'000 mammographies et près de 80'000 femmes, ce rapport s'intéresse aussi, au-delà des indicateurs classiques de performance, à mieux évaluer certains effets indésirables du dépistage comme les résultats faussement positifs ou les cancers survenant entre 2 examens de dépistage (dits cancers d'intervalle), auxquels une section entière est dédiée (chapitre 5). Enfin, la compilation (en annexe) des publications récentes ou les plus significatives liées au programme vaudois et à ses résultats souligne sa visibilité et son implication dans le contexte international, ainsi que son rôle phare en Suisse dans la recherche « evidence-based » sur le dépistage du cancer du sein. [...] [Auteurs, p. 7]

The European Board of Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine : the past, the present and the future [Europejska Rada Medycyny Fizykalnej i Rehabilitacji: przeszłość, teraźniejszość i perspektywy]

Right from the beginning of the development of the medical specialty of Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine (PRM) the harmonization of the fields of competence and the specialist training across Europe was always an important issue. The initially informal European collaboration was formalized in 1963 under the umbrella of the European Federation of PRM. The European Academy of PRM and the UEMS section of PRM started to contribute in 1969 and 1974 respectively. In 1991 the European Board of Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine (EBPRM) was founded with the specific task of harmonizing education and training in PRM in Europe. The EBPRM has progressively defined curricula for the teaching of medical students and for the postgraduate education and training of PRM specialists. It also created a harmonized European certification system for medical PRM specialists, PRM trainers and PRM training sites. European teaching initiatives for PRM trainees (European PRM Schools) were promoted and learning material for PRM trainees and PRM specialists (e-learning, books and e-books, etc.) was created. For the future the Board will have to ensure that a minimal specific undergraduate curriculum on PRM based on a detailed European catalogue of learning objectives will be taught in all medical schools in Europe as a basis for the general medical practice. To stimulate the harmonization of national curricula, the existing postgraduate curriculum will be expanded by a syllabus of competencies related to PRM and a catalogue of learning objectives to be reached by all European PRM trainees. The integration of the certifying examination of the PRM Board into the national assessment procedures for PRM specialists will also have to be promoted.

Adaptive integral assessment package for the A2UN@ project

This paper presents a first approach of Evaluation Engine Architecture (EEA) as proposal to support adaptive integral assessment, in the context of a virtual learning environment. The goal of our research is design an evaluation engine tool to assist in the whole assessment process within the A2UN@ project, linking that tool with the other key elements of a learning design (learning task, learning resources and learning support). The teachers would define the relation between knowledge, competencies, activities, resources and type of assessment. Providing this relation is possible obtain more accurate estimations of student's knowledge for adaptive evaluations and future recommendations. The process is supported by usage of educational standards and specifications and for an integral user modelling

Evolutionary impact assessment: accounting for evolutionary consequences of fishing in an ecosystem approach to fisheries management

Managing fisheries resources to maintain healthy ecosystems is one of the main goals of the ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). While a number of international treaties call for the implementation of EAF, there are still gaps in the underlying methodology. One aspect that has received substantial scientific attention recently is fisheries-induced evolution (FIE). Increasing evidence indicates that intensive fishing has the potential to exert strong directional selection on life-history traits, behaviour, physiology, and morphology of exploited fish. Of particular concern is that reversing evolutionary responses to fishing can be much more difficult than reversing demographic or phenotypically plastic responses. Furthermore, like climate change, multiple agents cause FIE, with effects accumulating over time. Consequently, FIE may alter the utility derived from fish stocks, which in turn can modify the monetary value living aquatic resources provide to society. Quantifying and predicting the evolutionary effects of fishing is therefore important for both ecological and economic reasons. An important reason this is not happening is the lack of an appropriate assessment framework. We therefore describe the evolutionary impact assessment (EvoIA) as a structured approach for assessing the evolutionary consequences of fishing and evaluating the predicted evolutionary outcomes of alternative management options. EvoIA can contribute to EAF by clarifying how evolution may alter stock properties and ecological relations, support the precautionary approach to fisheries management by addressing a previously overlooked source of uncertainty and risk, and thus contribute to sustainable fisheries.

Probabilistic evidential assessment of gunshot residue particle evidence (Part II) : Bayesian parameter estimation for experimental count data.

Part I of this series of articles focused on the construction of graphical probabilistic inference procedures, at various levels of detail, for assessing the evidential value of gunshot residue (GSR) particle evidence. The proposed models - in the form of Bayesian networks - address the issues of background presence of GSR particles, analytical performance (i.e., the efficiency of evidence searching and analysis procedures) and contamination. The use and practical implementation of Bayesian networks for case pre-assessment is also discussed. This paper, Part II, concentrates on Bayesian parameter estimation. This topic complements Part I in that it offers means for producing estimates useable for the numerical specification of the proposed probabilistic graphical models. Bayesian estimation procedures are given a primary focus of attention because they allow the scientist to combine (his/her) prior knowledge about the problem of interest with newly acquired experimental data. The present paper also considers further topics such as the sensitivity of the likelihood ratio due to uncertainty in parameters and the study of likelihood ratio values obtained for members of particular populations (e.g., individuals with or without exposure to GSR).