Estimating Two-Stage Models for Genetic Influences on Alcohol, Tobacco or Drug Use Initiation and Dependence Vulnerability in Twin and Family Data

Genetic research on risk of alcohol, tobacco or drug dependence must make allowance for the partial overlap of risk-factors for initiation of use, and risk-factors for dependence or other outcomes in users. Except in the extreme cases where genetic and environmental risk-factors for initiation and dependence overlap completely or are uncorrelated, there is no consensus about how best to estimate the magnitude of genetic or environmental correlations between Initiation and Dependence in twin and family data. We explore by computer simulation the biases to estimates of genetic and environmental parameters caused by model misspecification when Initiation can only be defined as a binary variable. For plausible simulated parameter values, the two-stage genetic models that we consider yield estimates of genetic and environmental variances for Dependence that, although biased, are not very discrepant from the true values. However, estimates of genetic (or environmental) correlations between Initiation and Dependence may be seriously biased, and may differ markedly under different two-stage models. Such estimates may have little credibility unless external data favor selection of one particular model. These problems can be avoided if Initiation can be assessed as a multiple-category variable (e.g. never versus early-onset versus later onset user), with at least two categories measurable in users at risk for dependence. Under these conditions, under certain distributional assumptions., recovery of simulated genetic and environmental correlations becomes possible, Illustrative application of the model to Australian twin data on smoking confirmed substantial heritability of smoking persistence (42%) with minimal overlap with genetic influences on initiation.

Determination of the hemispheric character (i.e. southern or northern latitudinal position) of equatorial ionosonde stations as deduced from long-term recordings of the minimum height of the F-region (h ' F)

The virtual (or minimum) height of the F-region (h'F), recorded over a number of solar cycles for I I equatorial and mid-latitude ionosonde stations, was used to deduce the hemispheric (i.e. southern or northern hemisphere) character of equatorial stations. The semi-annual median monthly height (h'F) variations consist of two components: major local summer maximum and winter sub-maximum (about 5 percent of the summer maximum). This hemispheric pattern was most consistently observed for equatorial stations (within 5degrees of the geomagnetic equator) in a period centred on the local midnight (21-03 LT) but was also present, to a lesser extent, at mid-latitude stations and at other time intervals. It is evident that the physical parameter h'F defines the hemispheric character of an equatorial station which has different (sometimes opposite) geographic and geomagnetic latitudes. There is a sharp transition in the latitudinal character of the stations on both sides of the equator leading to hypothesis that the equal maxima in h'F in December and June solstices are observed at a near-equator position labelled as ionosonde deduced equator (IDE). Such a signature was observed for an American equatorial (both geographic and geomagnetic) station Talara (Peru) which is an experimental support of the hypothesis. The IDE can be another useful parameter characterising the equatorial ionosphere. This finding reveals a new application of the standard ionosonde data in defining the geophysical character of equatorial stations, being an important contribution to space climatology. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Existence of a semicontinuous or continuous utility function: a unified approach and an elementary proof

In this paper, we present a new unified approach and an elementary proof of a very general theorem on the existence of a semicontinuous or continuous utility function representing a preference relation. A simple and interesting new proof of the famous Debreu Gap Lemma is given. In addition, we prove a new Gap Lemma for the rational numbers and derive some consequences. We also prove a theorem which characterizes the existence of upper semicontinuous utility functions on a preordered topological space which need not be second countable. This is a generalization of the classical theorem of Rader which only gives sufficient conditions for the existence of an upper semicontinuous utility function for second countable topological spaces. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Experimental evidence that partner choice is a driving force in the payoff distribution among cooperators or mutualists: the cleaner fish case

Supply and demand largely determine the price of goods on human markets. It has been proposed that in animals, similar forces influence the payoff distribution between trading partners in Sexual selection, intraspecific cooperation and interspecific mutualism. Here we present the first experimental evidence supporting biological market theory in it study on cleaner fish, Labroides dimidiatus. Cleaners interact with two classes of clients: choosy client species with access to several cleaners usually do not queue for service and do not return if ignored, while resident client species with access to only one cleaning station do queue or return. We used plexiglas plates with equal amounts of food to stimulate these behaviours of the two client classes. Cleaners soon inspected 'choosy' plates before 'resident' plates. This supports previous field observations that suggest that client species with access to several cleaners exert choice to receive better(immediate) service.

Interspecific variation in plumage colour among birds: species recognition or light environment?

The traditional explanation for interspecific plumage colour variation in birds is that colour differences between species are adaptations to minimize the risk of hybridization. Under this explanation, colour differences between closely related species of birds represent reproductive character displacement. An alternative explanation is that interspecific variation in plumage colour is an adaptive response to variation in light environments across habitats. Under this explanation, differences in colour between closely related species are a product of selection on signal efficiency. We use a comparative approach to examine these two hypotheses, testing the effects of sympatry and habitat use, respectively, on divergence in male plumage colour. Contrary to the prediction of the Species Isolation Hypothesis, we find no evidence that sympatric pairs of species are consistently more divergent in coloration than are allopatric pairs of species. However, in agreement with the Light Environment Hypothesis, we find significant associations between plumage coloration and habitat use. All of these results remain qualitatively unchanged irrespective of the statistical methodology used to compare reflectance spectra, the body regions used in the analyses, or the exclusion of areas of plumage not used in sexual displays. Our results suggest that, in general, interspecific variation in plumage colour among birds is more strongly influenced by the signalling environment than by the risk of hybridization.

Squat, stoop, or something in between?

This article reviews the empirical and theoretical bases for recommendations regarding lifting technique. Lifting from postures involving extreme lumbar vertebral flexion, (approximately 60degrees of lumbar flexion, characterised by absence of electromyographical activity in erector spinae) has the potential to contribute to damage to ligaments and intervertebral discs, especially if combined with lateral flexion or rotation. The only appropriate recommendation regarding posture of the lumbar spine during lifting is to avoid postures involving extreme lumbar vertebral flexion (and rotation and lateral flexion). There is no empirical basis for avoiding postures involving moderate lumbar vertebral flexion, and no justification for advocating lifting from a full squat posture. Further, lifting from semi-squat postures, involving a moderate range of flexion at both knees and trunk, allows a pattern of interjoint coordination which appears to be functional in reducing muscular effort. Lifting training is generally ineffective, and there is unlikely to be a single best technique which is appropriate in all situations. Consequently, it may be preferable to provide education in general lifting guidelines and assist lifters to discover individually appropriate postures and patterns of movement. The article concludes by presenting recommendations for lifting technique which are justified by current knowledge.

Use of stress echocardiography to predict mortality in patients with diabetes and known or suspected coronary artery disease

OBJECTIVE - This study sought to determine whether stress echocardiography using exercise (when feasible) or dobutamine echo could be used to predict mortality in patients with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - Stress echo was performed in 937 patients with diabetes (aged 59 +/- 13 years, 529 men) for symptom evaluation (42%) and follow-up of known coronary artery disease (CAD) (58%). Stress echocardiography using exercise was performed in 333 patients able to exercise maximally, and dobutamine echo using a standard dobutamine stress was used in 604 patients. Patients were followed for less than or equal to9 years (mean 3.9 +/- 2.3) for all-cause mortality. RESULTS - Normal studies were obtained in 567 (60%) patients; 29% had resting left ventricular (LV) dysfunction, and 25% had ischemia. Abnormalities were confined to one territory in 183 (20%) patients and to multiple territories in 187 (20%) patients. Death (in 275 [29%] patients) was predicted by referral for pharmacologic stress (hazard ratio [HR] 3.94, P < 0.0001), ischemia (1.77, P <0.0001), age (1.02, P = 0.002), and heart failure (1.54, P = 0.01). The risk of death in patients With a normal scan was 4% per year, and this was associated with age and selection for pharmacologic stress testing. In stepwise models replicating the sequence of clinical evaluation, the predictive power of independent clinical predictors (age, selection for pharmacologic stress, previous infarction, and heart failure; model chi(2) = 104.8) was significantly enhanced by addition of stress echo data (model chi(2) = 122.9). CONCLUSIONS - The results of stress echo are independent predictors of death in diabetic patients with known or suspected CAD.. Ischemia adds risk that is incremental to clinical risks and LV dysfunction.

Vascular dysfunction and heart failure: Epiphenomenon or etiologic agent?

Endothelial function plays a key role in the local regulation of vascular tone. Alterations in endothelial function may result in impaired release of endothelium-derived relaxing factors or increased release of endothelium-derived contracting factors. Heart failure may impair endothelial function by means of reduced synthesis and release of nitric oxide (NO) or by increased degradation of NO and increased production of endothelin-1. Endothelial dysfunction may worsen heart function by means of peripheral effects, causing increased afterload and central effects such as myocardial ischemia and inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS)-induced detrimental effects. Evidence from clinical studies has suggested that there is a correlation between decreased endothelial function and increasing severity of congestive heart failure (CHF). Treatments that improve heart function may also improve endothelial dysfunction. The relationship between endothelial dysfunction and heart failure may be masked by the stage of endothelial dysfunction, the location of vessels being tested, and the state of endothelial-dependent vasodilatation response.

Productivity growth in pre-1990 Mongolian agriculture: Spiralling disaster or emerging success?

The reasons for the spectacular collapse of so many centrally-planned economies are a source of ongoing debate. In this paper, we use detailed farm-level data to measure total factor productivity (TFP) changes in Mongolian grain and potato farming during the 14-year period immediately preceding the 1990 economic reforms. We measure TFP growth using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) methods. Our results indicate quite poor overall performance, with an average annual TFP change of - 1.7% in grain and 0.8% in potatoes, over the 14-year period. However, the pattern of TFP growth changed substantially during this period, with TFP growth exceeding 7% per year in the latter half of this period. This suggests that the new policies of improved education, greater management autonomy, and improved incentives, which were introduced in final two planning periods in the 1980s, were beginning to have a significant influence upon the performance of Mongolian crop farming. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Eugenics or empowered choice? Community issues arising from prenatal testing

The prevention of inherited disabilities is viewed in two contrasting ways – either as enhancing reproductive choice and improving population health, or as discriminating against disabled community members. We argue that modern clinical genetics, including preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD), reflects a persistent and defensible desire by the community to prevent disability, rather than as increasing discrimination or threatening to produce a 'new eugenic' society. Screening should be presented as a distinct issue for decision-making about the prevention or acceptance of disability, rather than as a routinely accepted component of antenatal care. The community must improve its understanding of the experiences of those who manage disability, and continue to debate the issues of discrimination, selective genetic prevention and enhancement, reproductive freedom, and eugenics.