Who is honest and why: Baseline activation in anterior insula predicts inter-individual differences in deceptive behavior

Humans engage in deceptive behavior that negatively affects others. The propensity to deceive is,however, characterized by vast inter-individual heterogeneity that is poorly understood. Attempts to investigate the origins of this heterogeneity have so far mainly relied on subjective measures and have shown little predictive power. Here, we used resting electroencephalography to measure objective and stable individual differences in neural baseline activation in combination with an ecologically valid deception paradigm. Results showed that task-independent baseline activation in the anterior insula, a brain area implicated in mapping internal bodily states and in representing emotional arousal and consciousfeelings, predicts individuals’ propensity for deceptive behavior. The higher the neural baseline activation in this area is, the lower individuals’ propensity to deceive. Moreover, results provide evidence that high baseline activation in the anterior insula is associated with negative affect and dispositional tendencies to avoid aversive emotional situations. These results provide converging neural and psychological evidence that individuals might avoid a deceptive act due to a highly active negative emotional system which would make a deceptive act too stressful and bothersome.

Individual group efficacy beliefs and performance motivation: A mediational approach

Introduction: According to the theoretical model of Cranach, Ochsenbein, and Valach (1986) understanding group actions needs consideration of aspects at both the group level and the level of individual members. For example individual action units constituting group actions are motivated at the individual level while potentially being affected by characteristics of the group. Theoretically, group efficacy beliefs could be a part of this motivational process as they are an individual’s cognitive contents about group-level abilities to perform well in a specific task. Positive relations between group level efficacy-beliefs and group performance have been reported and Bandura and Locke (2003) argue that this relationship is being mediated by motivational processes and goal setting. The aims of this study were a) to examine the effects of group characteristics on individual performance motivation and b) to test if those are mediated by individual group efficacy beliefs. Methods: Forty-seven students (M=22.83 years, SD=2.83, 34% women) of the university of Berne participated in this scenario based experiment. Data were collected on two collection points. Subjects were provided information about fictive team members with whom they had to perform a group triathlon. Three values (low, medium, high) of the other team members’ abilities to perform in their parts of the triathlon (swimming and biking respectively) were combined in a 3x3 full factorial design (Anderson, 1982) yielding nine groups. Subjects were asked how confident they were that the teams would perform well in the task (individual group efficacy beliefs), and to provide information about their motivation to perform at their best in the respective group contexts (performance motivation). Multilevel modeling (Mplus) was used to estimate the effects of the factors swim and bike, and the context-varying covariate individual group efficacy beliefs on performance motivation. Further analyses were undertaken to test if the effects of group contexts on performance motivation are mediated by individual group efficacy beliefs. Results: Significant effects were reported for both the group characteristics (βswim = 7.86; βbike = 8.57; both p < .001) and the individual group efficacy beliefs (βigeb; .40, p < .001) on performance motivation. The subsequent mediation model indicated that the effects of group characteristics on performance motivation were partly mediated by the individual group efficacy beliefs of the subjects with significant mediation effects for both factors swim and bike. Discussion/Conclusion: The results of the study provide further support for the motivational character of efficacy beliefs and point out a mechanism by which team characteristics influence performance relevant factors at the level of individual team members. The study indicates that high team abilities lead to augmented performance motivation, adding a psychological advantage to teams already high on task relevant abilities. Future investigations will be aiming at possibilities to keep individual performance motivation high in groups with low task relevant abilities. One possibility could be the formulation of individual task goals. References: Anderson, N. H. (1982). Methods of information integration theory. New York: Academic Press. Bandura, A. & Locke, E. A. (2003). Negative self-efficacy and goal effects revisited. Journal of Applied Psychology, 88, 87-99. Cranach, M. von, Ochsenbein, G. & Valach, L. (1986). The group as a self-active system: Outline of a theory of group action. European Journal of Social Psychology, 16, 193-229.

Percutaneous mitral valve edge-to-edge repair: in-hospital results and 1-year follow-up of 628 patients of the 2011-2012 Pilot European Sentinel Registry.

BACKGROUND The use of transcatheter mitral valve repair (TMVR) has gained widespread acceptance in Europe, but data on immediate success, safety, and long-term echocardiographic follow-up in real-world patients are still limited. OBJECTIVES The aim of this multinational registry is to present a real-world overview of TMVR use in Europe. METHODS The Transcatheter Valve Treatment Sentinel Pilot Registry is a prospective, independent, consecutive collection of individual patient data. RESULTS A total of 628 patients (mean age 74.2 ± 9.7 years, 63.1% men) underwent TMVR between January 2011 and December 2012 in 25 centers in 8 European countries. The prevalent pathogenesis was functional mitral regurgitation (FMR) (n = 452 [72.0%]). The majority of patients (85.5%) were highly symptomatic (New York Heart Association functional class III or higher), with a high logistic EuroSCORE (European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation) (20.4 ± 16.7%). Acute procedural success was high (95.4%) and similar in FMR and degenerative mitral regurgitation (p = 0.662). One clip was implanted in 61.4% of patients. In-hospital mortality was low (2.9%), without significant differences between groups. The estimated 1-year mortality was 15.3%, which was similar for FMR and degenerative mitral regurgitation. The estimated 1-year rate of rehospitalization because of heart failure was 22.8%, significantly higher in the FMR group (25.8% vs. 12.0%, p[log-rank] = 0.009). Paired echocardiographic data from the 1-year follow-up, available for 368 consecutive patients in 15 centers, showed a persistent reduction in the degree of mitral regurgitation at 1 year (6.0% of patients with severe mitral regurgitation). CONCLUSIONS This independent, contemporary registry shows that TMVR is associated with high immediate success, low complication rates, and sustained 1-year reduction of the severity of mitral regurgitation and improvement of clinical symptoms.

Does context matter? Analysing structural and individual factors of member commitment in sport clubs

This article addresses factors that infl uence member commitment in sport clubs. Based on the theory of social action and the economic behaviour theory, it focuses not only on individual characteristics of club members but also on the corresponding structural conditions of sport clubs. Accordingly, a multilevel framework is developed for explaining member commitment in sport clubs. Different multilevel models were estimated in order to analyse the infl uences of both the individual and corresponding context Level in a sample of n = 1,699 members of 42 Swiss and German sport clubs. The multilevel analysis permitted an adequate handling of hierarchically structured data. Results of These multilevel analyses indicated that the commitment of members is not just an outcome of individual characteristics such as strong identifi cation with their club, positively perceived (collective) solidarity, satisfaction with their sport club, or voluntary engagement. It is also determined by club-specific structural conditions: commitment proves to be more probable in rural sport clubs and clubs that explicitly support sociability. Furthermore, cross-level effects in relation to member commitment were also found between the context variable sociability and the individual variable identification.

Efficacy and effectiveness of an rVSV-vectored vaccine expressing Ebola surface glycoprotein: interim results from the Guinea ring vaccination cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND A recombinant, replication-competent vesicular stomatitis virus-based vaccine expressing a surface glycoprotein of Zaire Ebolavirus (rVSV-ZEBOV) is a promising Ebola vaccine candidate. We report the results of an interim analysis of a trial of rVSV-ZEBOV in Guinea, west Africa. METHODS For this open-label, cluster-randomised ring vaccination trial, suspected cases of Ebola virus disease in Basse-Guinée (Guinea, west Africa) were independently ascertained by Ebola response teams as part of a national surveillance system. After laboratory confirmation of a new case, clusters of all contacts and contacts of contacts were defined and randomly allocated 1:1 to immediate vaccination or delayed (21 days later) vaccination with rVSV-ZEBOV (one dose of 2 × 10(7) plaque-forming units, administered intramuscularly in the deltoid muscle). Adults (age ≥18 years) who were not pregnant or breastfeeding were eligible for vaccination. Block randomisation was used, with randomly varying blocks, stratified by location (urban vs rural) and size of rings (≤20 vs >20 individuals). The study is open label and masking of participants and field teams to the time of vaccination is not possible, but Ebola response teams and laboratory workers were unaware of allocation to immediate or delayed vaccination. Taking into account the incubation period of the virus of about 10 days, the prespecified primary outcome was laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus disease with onset of symptoms at least 10 days after randomisation. The primary analysis was per protocol and compared the incidence of Ebola virus disease in eligible and vaccinated individuals in immediate vaccination clusters with the incidence in eligible individuals in delayed vaccination clusters. This trial is registered with the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry, number PACTR201503001057193. FINDINGS Between April 1, 2015, and July 20, 2015, 90 clusters, with a total population of 7651 people were included in the planned interim analysis. 48 of these clusters (4123 people) were randomly assigned to immediate vaccination with rVSV-ZEBOV, and 42 clusters (3528 people) were randomly assigned to delayed vaccination with rVSV-ZEBOV. In the immediate vaccination group, there were no cases of Ebola virus disease with symptom onset at least 10 days after randomisation, whereas in the delayed vaccination group there were 16 cases of Ebola virus disease from seven clusters, showing a vaccine efficacy of 100% (95% CI 74·7-100·0; p=0·0036). No new cases of Ebola virus disease were diagnosed in vaccinees from the immediate or delayed groups from 6 days post-vaccination. At the cluster level, with the inclusion of all eligible adults, vaccine effectiveness was 75·1% (95% CI -7·1 to 94·2; p=0·1791), and 76·3% (95% CI -15·5 to 95·1; p=0·3351) with the inclusion of everyone (eligible or not eligible for vaccination). 43 serious adverse events were reported; one serious adverse event was judged to be causally related to vaccination (a febrile episode in a vaccinated participant, which resolved without sequelae). Assessment of serious adverse events is ongoing. INTERPRETATION The results of this interim analysis indicate that rVSV-ZEBOV might be highly efficacious and safe in preventing Ebola virus disease, and is most likely effective at the population level when delivered during an Ebola virus disease outbreak via a ring vaccination strategy. FUNDING WHO, with support from the Wellcome Trust (UK); Médecins Sans Frontières; the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs through the Research Council of Norway; and the Canadian Government through the Public Health Agency of Canada, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, International Development Research Centre, and Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development.

The functional significance of EEG microstates-Associations with modalities of thinking

The momentary, global functional state of the brain is reflected by its electric field configuration. Cluster analytical approaches consistently extracted four head-surface brain electric field configurations that optimally explain the variance of their changes across time in spontaneous EEG recordings. These four configurations are referred to as EEG microstate classes A, B, C, and D and have been associated with verbal/phonological, visual, attention reorientation, and subjective interoceptive-autonomic processing, respectively. The present study tested these associations via an intra-individual and inter-individual analysis approach. The intra-individual approach tested the effect of task-induced increased modality-specific processing on EEG microstate parameters. The inter-individual approach tested the effect of personal modality-specific parameters on EEG microstate parameters. We obtained multichannel EEG from 61 healthy, right-handed, male students during four eyes-closed conditions: object-visualization, spatial-visualization, verbalization (6 runs each), and resting (7 runs). After each run, we assessed participants' degrees of object-visual, spatial-visual, and verbal thinking using subjective reports. Before and after the recording, we assessed modality-specific cognitive abilities and styles using nine cognitive tests and two questionnaires. The EEG of all participants, conditions, and runs was clustered into four classes of EEG microstates (A, B, C, and D). RMANOVAs, ANOVAs and post-hoc paired t-tests compared microstate parameters between conditions. TANOVAs compared microstate class topographies between conditions. Differences were localized using eLORETA. Pearson correlations assessed interrelationships between personal modality-specific parameters and EEG microstate parameters during no-task resting. As hypothesized, verbal as opposed to visual conditions consistently affected the duration, occurrence, and coverage of microstate classes A and B. Contrary to associations suggested by previous reports, parameters were increased for class A during visualization, and class B during verbalization. In line with previous reports, microstate D parameters were increased during no-task resting compared to the three internal, goal-directed tasks. Topographic differences between conditions concerned particular sub-regions of components of the metabolic default mode network. Modality-specific personal parameters did not consistently correlate with microstate parameters except verbal cognitive style which correlated negatively with microstate class A duration and positively with class C occurrence. This is the first study that aimed to induce EEG microstate class parameter changes based on their hypothesized functional significance. Beyond, the associations of microstate classes A and B with visual and verbal processing, respectively and microstate class D with interoceptive-autonomic processing, our results suggest that a finely-tuned interplay between all four EEG microstate classes is necessary for the continuous formation of visual and verbal thoughts, as well as interoceptive-autonomic processing. Our results point to the possibility that the EEG microstate classes may represent the head-surface measured activity of intra-cortical sources primarily exhibiting inhibitory functions. However, additional studies are needed to verify and elaborate on this hypothesis.

Dihydropyrimidinase and β-ureidopropionase gene variation and severe fluoropyrimidine-related toxicity

AIMS To assess the association of DPYS and UPB1 genetic variation, encoding the catabolic enzymes downstream of dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase, with early-onset toxicity from fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy. PATIENTS & METHODS The coding and exon-flanking regions of both genes were sequenced in a discovery subset (164 patients). Candidate variants were genotyped in the full cohort of 514 patients. RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS Novel rare deleterious variants in DPYS (c.253C > T and c.1217G > A) were detected once each in toxicity cases and may explain the occurrence of severe toxicity in individual patients, and associations of common variants in DPYS (c.1-1T > C: padjusted = 0.003; OR = 2.53; 95% CI: 1.39-4.62, and c.265-58T > C: padjusted = 0.039; OR = 0.61; 95% CI: 0.38-0.97) with 5-fluorouracil toxicity were replicated.

Anticoagulant vs. antiplatelet therapy in patients with cryptogenic stroke and patent foramen ovale: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

AIMS The preferred antithrombotic strategy for secondary prevention in patients with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and patent foramen ovale (PFO) is unknown. We pooled multiple observational studies and used propensity score-based methods to estimate the comparative effectiveness of oral anticoagulation (OAC) compared with antiplatelet therapy (APT). METHODS AND RESULTS Individual participant data from 12 databases of medically treated patients with CS and PFO were analysed with Cox regression models, to estimate database-specific hazard ratios (HRs) comparing OAC with APT, for both the primary composite outcome [recurrent stroke, transient ischaemic attack (TIA), or death] and stroke alone. Propensity scores were applied via inverse probability of treatment weighting to control for confounding. We synthesized database-specific HRs using random-effects meta-analysis models. This analysis included 2385 (OAC = 804 and APT = 1581) patients with 227 composite endpoints (stroke/TIA/death). The difference between OAC and APT was not statistically significant for the primary composite outcome [adjusted HR = 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.52-1.12] or for the secondary outcome of stroke alone (adjusted HR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.44-1.27). Results were consistent in analyses applying alternative weighting schemes, with the exception that OAC had a statistically significant beneficial effect on the composite outcome in analyses standardized to the patient population who actually received APT (adjusted HR = 0.64, 95% CI 0.42-0.99). Subgroup analyses did not detect statistically significant heterogeneity of treatment effects across clinically important patient groups. CONCLUSION We did not find a statistically significant difference comparing OAC with APT; our results justify randomized trials comparing different antithrombotic approaches in these patients.

Thyroid function within the normal range and risk of coronary heart disease: an individual participant data analysis of 14 cohorts

IMPORTANCE Some experts suggest that serum thyrotropin levels in the upper part of the current reference range should be considered abnormal, an approach that would reclassify many individuals as having mild hypothyroidism. Health hazards associated with such thyrotropin levels are poorly documented, but conflicting evidence suggests that thyrotropin levels in the upper part of the reference range may be associated with an increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). OBJECTIVE To assess the association between differences in thyroid function within the reference range and CHD risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Individual participant data analysis of 14 cohorts with baseline examinations between July 1972 and April 2002 and with median follow-up ranging from 3.3 to 20.0 years. Participants included 55,412 individuals with serum thyrotropin levels of 0.45 to 4.49 mIU/L and no previously known thyroid or cardiovascular disease at baseline. EXPOSURES Thyroid function as expressed by serum thyrotropin levels at baseline. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Hazard ratios (HRs) of CHD mortality and CHD events according to thyrotropin levels after adjustment for age, sex, and smoking status. RESULTS Among 55,412 individuals, 1813 people (3.3%) died of CHD during 643,183 person-years of follow-up. In 10 cohorts with information on both nonfatal and fatal CHD events, 4666 of 48,875 individuals (9.5%) experienced a first-time CHD event during 533,408 person-years of follow-up. For each 1-mIU/L higher thyrotropin level, the HR was 0.97 (95% CI, 0.90-1.04) for CHD mortality and 1.00 (95% CI, 0.97-1.03) for a first-time CHD event. Similarly, in analyses by categories of thyrotropin, the HRs of CHD mortality (0.94 [95% CI, 0.74-1.20]) and CHD events (0.97 [95% CI, 0.83-1.13]) were similar among participants with the highest (3.50-4.49 mIU/L) compared with the lowest (0.45-1.49 mIU/L) thyrotropin levels. Subgroup analyses by sex and age group yielded similar results. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Thyrotropin levels within the reference range are not associated with risk of CHD events or CHD mortality. This finding suggests that differences in thyroid function within the population reference range do not influence the risk of CHD. Increased CHD risk does not appear to be a reason for lowering the upper thyrotropin reference limit.

Glenohumeral dislocation. Injury patterns and combination injuries

Hintergrund Begleitverletzungen können in bis zu 90 % der Fälle nach erstmaliger Schulterluxation auftreten. Auch wenn sie nicht immer einen Einfluss auf die Therapiewahl haben, so ist eine sorgfältige Diagnostik entscheidend. Einteilung In der Akutsituation ist eine konventionelle Bildgebung in mindestens 2 Ebenen (a.-p./Neer/evtl. axial) vor und nach Reposition zwingend. Luxationsfrakturen dürfen nicht übersehen bzw. durch das Manöver der geschlossenen Reposition sekundär disloziert werden. Bestehen ossäre glenoidale, humerale oder kombinierte Verletzungen, sollten sie gemäß Stabilitätskriterien versorgt werden. Dies kann umgehend, nach manifester Dezentrierung oder Instabilität entweder mittels Osteosythese oder als glenohumerale Stabilisation im Verlauf erfolgen. Bei einer Instabilität ist prinzipiell zur Bilanzierung einer ossären Ursache das Arthro-CT die Untersuchung der Wahl, welche auch eine Beurteilung der kapsulolabroligamentären Verletzung sowie einer traumatischen Rotatorenmanschettenläsion ermöglicht. Letztere ist jedoch besser mittels Arthro-MRT zu beurteilen. Diskussion Eine signifikante frische, meist größere oder massive, Rotatorenmanschettenläsion sollte rasch operativ angegangen werden. Medial reichende „off the track“ Hill-Sachs-Läsionen können mittels einer Hill-Sachs-Remplissage oder, wie auch glenoidale Defekte, mittels einer Kochenaugmentation versorgt werden. Langzeitresultate des Latarjet-Verfahrens zeigen 25 Jahre nach dem Eingriff die niedrigste Reluxationsrate < 4 %, eine gute Außenrotation, eine sehr hohe Patientenzufriedenheit und degenerative Veränderungen, welche vergleichbar mit der natürlichen Entwicklung nach erstmaliger Schulterluxation ohne Rezidiv sind.

Can gender-fair language reduce gender stereotyping and discrimination?

Gender-fair language (GFL) aims at reducing gender stereotyping and discrimination. Two principle strategies have been employed to make languages gender-fair and to treat women and men symmetrically: neutralization and feminization. Neutralization is achieved, for example, by replacing male-masculine forms (policeman) with gender-unmarked forms (police officer), whereas feminization relies on the use of feminine forms to make female referents visible (i.e., the applicant… he or she instead of the applicant… he). By integrating research on (1) language structures, (2) language policies, and (3) individual language behavior, we provide a critical review of how GFL contributes to the reduction of gender stereotyping and discrimination. Our review provides a basis for future research and for scientifically based policy-making.

Numerical Magnitude Skills in 6-Years-Old Children: Exploring Specific Associations with Components of Executive Function

Little is known about how children learn to associate numbers with their corresponding magnitude and about individual characteristics contributing to performance differences on the numerical magnitude tasks within a relatively homogenous sample of 6-year-olds. The present study investigated the relationships between components of executive function and two different numerical magnitude skills in a sample of 162 kindergartners. The Symbolic Number Line was predicted by verbal updating and switching, whereas the Symbolic Magnitude Comparison was predicted by inhibition. Both symbolic tasks were predicted by visuo-spatial updating. Current findings suggest that visuo-spatial updating underlies young children’s retrieval and processing of numbers’ magnitude.

An Appropriate Role for the Leadership: A Quantitative Analysis of the Effects of House Leadership on Open-Seat Races

This paper investigates the effects on open-seat races in the United States House of Representatives. This project focuses on the influence that the House leadership exerts on races. Generally, the leadership influences race through spending by party organizations and leadership visits. During each election cycle, national party organizations spend millions of dollars to get their candidates into office. I have developed a multiple regression model that measures different types of spending from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the National Republican Congressional Committee, and the Republican National Committee and the effects of these spending types on the election results. Also, the study examines the number of visits by each party’s leadership to each race. I introduced control variables that account for the year, the competitiveness of each race, and the individual candidate fundraising. In terms of statistical significance, the results were mixed showing one type of party spending to be highly influential in the outcome of the race. Competitiveness and individual candidate fundraising also achieved statistical significance. The study also includes a qualitative investigation of leadership visits and individual case studies in order to understand better the way in which the data interact in real campaigns.

Clinical and epidemiological characteristics of breast cancer metastases

Introduction. Breast cancer is a highly variable disease, and long-term outcomes for individual patients are difficult to predict. We evaluated a retrospective cohort of early stage breast cancer (ESBC) patients based on a variety of clinical and epidemiological factors, specifically looking at the distribution of metastasis and associations with these clinical and epidemiological factors. ^ Methods. Patients were derived from the Early Stage Breast Cancer Repository (ESBCR) with a breast cancer diagnosed between 1985 and 2000. We conducted univariate and multivariate analysis of the data to evaluate associations between characteristics and occurrence of overall, visceral, and bone metastasis. Visceral metastasis was defined as lung, liver, peritoneal, lymph node (thoracic, abdominal, pelvis), and contralateral breast cancer. ^ Results. Overall, 394 (16%) patients developed a metastasis. Of these, 83% were visceral and 17% were bone. Multivariate analyses identified the following variables to be associated with metastasis: Any metastasis: age at diagnosis, stage, ER/PR status, hormone treatment, and type of surgery (1)Visceral metastasis: age at diagnosis, stage, hormone treatment, and type of surgery (2) Bone metastasis –Alcohol use, stage, and ER/PR status ^ Discussion/conclusion. ER-/PR- status has previously been found to be associated with bone metastasis, as we confirm in our cohort. We report an association between alcohol use and bone metastasis whereas previous studies find an association with recurrence. Distribution of metastases varies from previous studies. Typically, previous studies reported bone metastasis >30%, yet our study found 17%. Previous studies varied in design, and definition of visceral metastasis. Future research is needed to further elucidate prognostic factors associated with specific metastases A more thorough understanding of what might predict which ESBC patients will develop metastases can help direct future treatment. Future studies of this nature could include the Perou intrinsic subtypes, biomarkers like Ki-67, and genetic analyses such as Oncotype DX or MammaPrint.^

COSTS AND EFFECTS OF ARKANSAS' LONG-TERM CARE DEMONSTRATION PROJECT (MEDICAID, CHANELLING, COMMUNITY ASSESSMENT)

The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of the Arkansas Long-Term Care Demonstration Project upon Arkansas' Medicaid expenditures and upon the clients it serves. A Retrospective Medicaid expenditure study component used analyses of variance techniques to test for the Project's effects upon aggregated expenditures for 28 demonstration and control counties representing 25 percent of the State's population over four years, 1979-1982.^ A second approach to the study question utilized a 1982 prospective sample of 458 demonstration and control clients from the same 28 counties. The disability level or need for care of each patient was established a priori. The extent to which an individual's variation in Medicaid utilization and costs was explained by patient need, presence or absence of the channeling project's placement decision or some other patient characteristic was examined by multiple regression analysis. Long-term and acute care Medicaid, Medicare, third party, self-pay and the grand total of all Medicaid claims were analyzed for project effects and explanatory relationships.^ The main project effect was to increase personal care costs without reducing nursing home or acute care costs (Prospective Study). Expansion of clients appeared to occur in personal care (Prospective Study) and minimum care nursing home (Retrospective Study) for the project areas. Cost-shifting between Medicaid and Medicare in the project areas and two different patterns of utilization in the North and South projects tended to offset each other such that no differences in total costs between the project areas and demonstration areas occurred. The project was significant ((beta) = .22, p < .001) only for personal care costs. The explanatory power of this personal care regression model (R('2) = .36) was comparable to other reported health services utilization models. Other variables (Medicare buy-in, level of disability, Social Security Supplemental Income (SSI), net monthly income, North/South areas and age) explained more variation in the other twelve cost regression models. ^