Oil spill environmental risk assessment of stationary sources in offshore zones (Innovating a mathematical model)

Nowadays, risks arising from the rapid development of oil and gas industries are significantly increasing. As a result, one of the main concerns of either industrial or environmental managers is the identification and assessment of such risks in order to develop and maintain appropriate proactive measures. Oil spill from stationary sources in offshore zones is one of the accidents resulting in several adverse impacts on marine ecosystems. Considering a site's current situation and relevant requirements and standards, risk assessment process is not only capable of recognizing the probable causes of accidents but also of estimating the probability of occurrence and the severity of consequences. In this way, results of risk assessment would help managers and decision makers create and employ proper control methods. Most of the represented models for risk assessment of oil spills are achieved on the basis of accurate data bases and analysis of historical data, but unfortunately such data bases are not accessible in most of the zones, especially in developing countries, or else they are newly established and not applicable yet. This issue reveals the necessity of using Expert Systems and Fuzzy Set Theory. By using such systems it will be possible to formulize the specialty and experience of several experts and specialists who have been working in petroliferous areas for several years. On the other hand, in developing countries often the damages to environment and environmental resources are not considered as risk assessment priorities and they are approximately under-estimated. For this reason, the proposed model in this research is specially addressing the environmental risk of oil spills from stationary sources in offshore zones.

A deformation model of flexible, high area-to-mass ratio debris under perturbations and validation method

A new type of space debris was recently discovered by Schildknecht in near -geosynchronous orbit (GEO). These objects were later identified as exhibiting properties associated with High Area-to-Mass ratio (HAMR) objects. According to their brightness magnitudes (light curve), high rotation rates and composition properties (albedo, amount of specular and diffuse reflection, colour, etc), it is thought that these objects are multilayer insulation (MLI). Observations have shown that this debris type is very sensitive to environmental disturbances, particularly solar radiation pressure, due to the fact that their shapes are easily deformed leading to changes in the Area-to-Mass ratio (AMR) over time. This thesis proposes a simple effective flexible model of the thin, deformable membrane with two different methods. Firstly, this debris is modelled with Finite Element Analysis (FEA) by using Bernoulli-Euler theory called “Bernoulli model”. The Bernoulli model is constructed with beam elements consisting 2 nodes and each node has six degrees of freedom (DoF). The mass of membrane is distributed in beam elements. Secondly, the debris based on multibody dynamics theory call “Multibody model” is modelled as a series of lump masses, connected through flexible joints, representing the flexibility of the membrane itself. The mass of the membrane, albeit low, is taken into account with lump masses in the joints. The dynamic equations for the masses, including the constraints defined by the connecting rigid rod, are derived using fundamental Newtonian mechanics. The physical properties of both flexible models required by the models (membrane density, reflectivity, composition, etc.), are assumed to be those of multilayer insulation. Both flexible membrane models are then propagated together with classical orbital and attitude equations of motion near GEO region to predict the orbital evolution under the perturbations of solar radiation pressure, Earth’s gravity field, luni-solar gravitational fields and self-shadowing effect. These results are then compared to two rigid body models (cannonball and flat rigid plate). In this investigation, when comparing with a rigid model, the evolutions of orbital elements of the flexible models indicate the difference of inclination and secular eccentricity evolutions, rapid irregular attitude motion and unstable cross-section area due to a deformation over time. Then, the Monte Carlo simulations by varying initial attitude dynamics and deformed angle are investigated and compared with rigid models over 100 days. As the results of the simulations, the different initial conditions provide unique orbital motions, which is significantly different in term of orbital motions of both rigid models. Furthermore, this thesis presents a methodology to determine the material dynamic properties of thin membranes and validates the deformation of the multibody model with real MLI materials. Experiments are performed in a high vacuum chamber (10-4 mbar) replicating space environment. A thin membrane is hinged at one end but free at the other. The free motion experiment, the first experiment, is a free vibration test to determine the damping coefficient and natural frequency of the thin membrane. In this test, the membrane is allowed to fall freely in the chamber with the motion tracked and captured through high velocity video frames. A Kalman filter technique is implemented in the tracking algorithm to reduce noise and increase the tracking accuracy of the oscillating motion. The forced motion experiment, the last test, is performed to determine the deformation characteristics of the object. A high power spotlight (500-2000W) is used to illuminate the MLI and the displacements are measured by means of a high resolution laser sensor. Finite Element Analysis (FEA) and multibody dynamics of the experimental setups are used for the validation of the flexible model by comparing with the experimental results of displacements and natural frequencies.

SLOPE STABILITY ANALYSIS OF MOUNT MEAGER, SOUTH-WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA

The Mount Meager Volcanic Complex (MMVC) in south-western British Columbia is a potentially active, hydrothermally altered massif comprising a series of steep, glaciated peaks. Climatic conditions and glacial retreat has led to the further weathering, exposure and de-buttressing of steep slopes composed of weak, unconsolidated material. This has resulted in an increased frequency of landslide events over the past few decades, many of which have dammed the rivers bordering the Complex. The breach of these debris dams presents a risk of flooding to the downstream communities. Preliminary mapping showed there are numerous sites around the Complex where future failure could occur. Some of these areas are currently undergoing progressive slope movement and display features to support this such as anti-scarps and tension cracks. The effect of water infiltration on stability was modelled using the Rocscience program Slide 6.0. The main site of focus was Mount Meager in the south- east of the Complex where the most recent landslide took place. Two profiles through Mount Meager were analysed along with one other location in the northern section of the MMVC, where instability had been detected. The lowest Factor of Safety (FOS) for each profile was displayed and an estimate of the volume which could be generated was deduced. A hazard map showing the inundation zones for various volumes of debris flows was created from simulations using LAHARZ. Results showed the massif is unstable, even before infiltration. Varying the amount of infiltration appears to have no significant impact on the FOS annually implying that small changes of any kind could also trigger failure. Further modelling could be done to assess the impact of infiltration over shorter time scales. The Slide models show the volume of material that could be delivered to the Lillooet River Valley to be of the order of 109 m3 which, based on the LAHARZ simulations, would completely inundate the valley and communities downstream. A major hazard of this is that the removal of such a large amount of material has the potential to trigger an explosive eruption of the geothermal system and renew volcanic activity. Although events of this size are infrequent, there is a significant risk to the communities downstream of the complex.

Do increases in oil prices precede U.S. recessions?

This thesis examines the relationship between oil prices and economic activity, and it attempts to address the question: do increases in oil prices (oil shocks) precede U.S. recessions? This paper also applied macroeconomics, either through the direct use of a macroeconomic point of view or using a combination of mathematical and statistical models. Two mathematical and statistical models are used to determine the ability of oil prices to predict recessions in the United States. First, using the binary cyclical (Bry-Boschan method) indicator procedure to test the turning point of oil prices compared with turning points in GDP finds that oil prices almost always turn five month before a recession, suggesting that an oil shock might occur before a recession. Second, the Granger causality test shows that oil prices change do Granger cause U.S. recessions, indicating that oil prices are a useful signal to indicate a U.S. recession. Finally, combining this analysis with the literature, there are several potential explanations that the spike in oil prices result in slower GDP growth and are a contributing factor to U.S. recessions.

STABILITY ANALYSIS AND HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF SAN VICENTE VOLCANO IN CENTRAL EL SALVADOR

Geologic hazards affect the lives of millions of people worldwide every year. El Salvador is a country that is regularly affected by natural disasters, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tropical storms. Additionally, rainfall-induced landslides and debris flows are a major threat to the livelihood of thousands. The San Vicente Volcano in central El Salvador has a recurring and destructive pattern of landslides and debris flows occurring on the northern slopes of the volcano. In recent memory there have been at least seven major destructive debris flows on San Vicente volcano. Despite this problem, there has been no known attempt to study the inherent stability of these volcanic slopes and to determine the thresholds of rainfall that might lead to slope instability. This thesis explores this issue and outlines a suggested method for predicting the likelihood of slope instability during intense rainfall events. The material properties obtained from a field campaign and laboratory testing were used for a 2-D slope stability analysis on a recent landslide on San Vicente volcano. This analysis confirmed that the surface materials of the volcano are highly permeable and have very low shear strength and provided insight into the groundwater table behavior during a rainstorm. The biggest factors on the stability of the slopes were found to be slope geometry, rainfall totals and initial groundwater table location. Using the results from this analysis a stability chart was created that took into account these main factors and provided an estimate of the stability of a slope in various rainfall scenarios. This chart could be used by local authorities in the event of a known extreme rainfall event to help make decisions regarding possible evacuation. Recommendations are given to improve the methodology for future application in other areas as well as in central El Salvador.

EVALUATING THE OIL SANDS RECLAMATION PROCESS: ASSESSING POLICY CAPACITY AND STAKEHOLDER ACCESS FOR GOVERNMENT AND NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS OPERATING IN ALBERTA’S OIL SANDS

By employing interpretive policy analysis this thesis aims to assess, measure, and explain policy capacity for government and non-government organizations involved in reclaiming Alberta's oil sands. Using this type of analysis to assess policy capacity is a novel approach for understanding reclamation policy; and therefore, this research will provide a unique contribution to the literature surrounding reclamation policy. The oil sands region in northeast Alberta, Canada is an area of interest for a few reasons; primarily because of the vast reserves of bitumen and the environmental cost associated with developing this resource. An increase in global oil demand has established incentive for industry to seek out and develop new reserves. Alberta's oil sands are one of the largest remaining reserves in the world, and there is significant interest in increasing production in this region. Furthermore, tensions in several oil exporting nations in the Middle East remain unresolved, and this has garnered additional support for a supply side solution to North American oil demands. This solution relies upon the development of reserves in both the United States and Canada. These compounding factors have contributed to the increased development in the oil sands of northeastern Alberta. Essentially, a rapid expansion of oil sands operations is ongoing, and is the source of significant disturbance across the region. This disturbance, and the promises of reclamation, is a source of contentious debates amongst stakeholders and continues to be highly visible in the media. If oil sands operations are to retain their social license to operate, it is critical that reclamation efforts be effective. One concern non-governmental organizations (NGOs) expressed criticizes the current monitoring and enforcement of regulatory programs in the oil sands. Alberta's NGOs have suggested the data made available to them originates from industrial sources, and is generally unchecked by government. In an effort to discern the overall status of reclamation in the oil sands this study explores several factors essential to policy capacity: work environment, training, employee attitudes, perceived capacity, policy tools, evidence based work, and networking. Data was collected through key informant interviews with senior policy professionals in government and non-government agencies in Alberta. The following are agencies of interest in this research: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP); Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development (AESRD); Alberta Energy Regulator (AER); Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA); Alberta Environment Monitoring, Evaluation, and Reporting Agency (AEMERA); Wood Buffalo Environmental Association (WBEA). The aim of this research is to explain how and why reclamation policy is conducted in Alberta's oil sands. This will illuminate government capacity, NGO capacity, and the interaction of these two agency typologies. In addition to answering research questions, another goal of this project is to show interpretive analysis of policy capacity can be used to measure and predict policy effectiveness. The oil sands of Alberta will be the focus of this project, however, future projects could focus on any government policy scenario utilizing evidence-based approaches.

ECONOMIC PROFITABILITY OF THE BAKKEN, NORTH DAKOTA UNCONVENTIONAL OIL PLAYS BASED ON A TYPICAL WELL PERFORMANCE WITH CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS

Increases in oil prices after the economic recession have been surprising for domestic oil production in the United States since the beginning of 2009. Not only did the conventional oil extraction increase, but unconventional oil production and exploration also improved greatly with the favorable economic conditions. This favorable economy encourages companies to invest in new reservoirs and technological developments. Recently, enhanced drilling techniques including hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have been supporting the domestic economy by way of unconventional shale and tight oil from various U.S. locations. One of the main contributors to this oil boom is the unconventional oil production from the North Dakota Bakken field. Horizontal drilling has increased oil production in the Bakken field, but the economic issues of unconventional oil extraction are still debatable due to volatile oil prices, high decline rates of production, a limited production period, high production costs, and lack of transportation. The economic profitability and viability of the unconventional oil play in the North Dakota Bakken was tested with an economic analysis of average Bakken unconventional well features. Scenario analysis demonstrated that a typical North Dakota Bakken unconventional oil well is profitable and viable as shown by three financial metrics; net present value, internal rate of return, and break-even prices.

Modeling, Simulation, and Characterization of Space Debris in low-Earth Orbit

Every space launch increases the overall amount of space debris. Satellites have limited awareness of nearby objects that might pose a collision hazard. Astrometric, radiometric, and thermal models for the study of space debris in low-Earth orbit have been developed. This modeled approach proposes analysis methods that provide increased Local Area Awareness for satellites in low-Earth and geostationary orbit. Local Area Awareness is defined as the ability to detect, characterize, and extract useful information regarding resident space objects as they move through the space environment surrounding a spacecraft. The study of space debris is of critical importance to all space-faring nations. Characterization efforts are proposed using long-wave infrared sensors for space-based observations of debris objects in low-Earth orbit. Long-wave infrared sensors are commercially available and do not require solar illumination to be observed, as their received signal is temperature dependent. The characterization of debris objects through means of passive imaging techniques allows for further studies into the origination, specifications, and future trajectory of debris objects. Conclusions are made regarding the aforementioned thermal analysis as a function of debris orbit, geometry, orientation with respect to time, and material properties. Development of a thermal model permits the characterization of debris objects based upon their received long-wave infrared signals. Information regarding the material type, size, and tumble-rate of the observed debris objects are extracted. This investigation proposes the utilization of long-wave infrared radiometric models of typical debris to develop techniques for the detection and characterization of debris objects via signal analysis of unresolved imagery. Knowledge regarding the orbital type and semi-major axis of the observed debris object are extracted via astrometric analysis. This knowledge may aid in the constraint of the admissible region for the initial orbit determination process. The resultant orbital information is then fused with the radiometric characterization analysis enabling further characterization efforts of the observed debris object. This fused analysis, yielding orbital, material, and thermal properties, significantly increases a satellite’s Local Area Awareness via an intimate understanding of the debris environment surrounding the spacecraft.

Impact of potassium and phosphorus in biomass on the properties of fast Pyrolysis bio-oil

This study investigates fast pyrolysis bio-oils produced from alkali-metal-impregnated biomass (beech wood). The impregnation aim is to study the catalytic cracking of the pyrolysis vapors as a result of potassium or phosphorus. It is recognized that potassium and phosphorus in biomass can have a major impact on the thermal conversion processes. When biomass is pyrolyzed in the presence of alkali metal cations, catalytic cracking of the pyrolysis liquids occurs in the vapor phase, reducing the organic liquids produced and increasing yields of water, char, and gas, resulting in a bio-oil that has a lower calorific value and an increased chance of phase separation. Beech wood was impregnated with potassium or phosphorus (K impregnation and P impregnation, respectively) in the range of 0.10-2.00 wt %. Analytical pyrolysis-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (Py-GC-MS) was used to examine the pyrolysis products during thermal degradation, and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) was used to examine the distribution of char and volatiles. Both potassium and phosphorus are seen to catalyze the pyrolytic decomposition of biomass and modify the yields of products. 3-Furaldehyde and levoglucosenone become more dominant products upon P impregnation, pointing to rearrangement and dehydration routes during the pyrolysis process. Potassium has a significant influence on cellulose and hemicellulose decomposition, not just on the formation of levoglucosan but also other species, such as 2(5H)-furanone or hydroxymethyl-cyclopentene derivatives. Fast pyrolysis processing has also been undertaken using a laboratory-scale continuously fed bubbling fluidized-bed reactor with a nominal capacity of 1 kg h-1 at the reaction temperature of 525 °C. An increase in the viscosity of the bio-oil during the stability assessment tests was observed with an increasing percentage of impregnation for both additives. This is because bio-oil undergoes polymerization while placed in storage as a result of the inorganic content. The majority of inorganics are concentrated in the char, but small amounts are entrained in the pyrolysis vapors and, therefore, end up in the bio-oil.

Climate Change Adaptation Case Study: Benefit-Cost Analysis of Coastal Flooding Hazard Mitigation

The damage Hurricane Sandy caused had far-reaching repercussions up and down the East Coast of the United States. Vast coastal flooding accompanied the storm, inundating homes, businesses, and utility and emergency facilities. Since the storm, projects to mitigate similar future floods have been scrutinized. Such projects not only need to keep out floodwaters but also be designed to withstand the effect that climate change might have on rising sea levels and increased flood risk. In this study, we develop an economic model to assess the costs and benefits of a berm (sea wall) to mitigate the effects of flooding from a large storm. We account for the lifecycle costs of the project, which include those for the upfront construction of the berm, ongoing maintenance, land acquisition, and wetland and recreation zone construction. Benefits of the project include avoided fatalities, avoided residential and commercial damages, avoided utility and municipal damages, recreational and health benefits, avoided debris removal expenses, and avoided loss of function of key transportation and commercial infrastructure located in the area. Our estimate of the beneficial effects of the berm includes ecosystem services from wetlands and health benefits to the surrounding community from a park and nature system constructed along the berm. To account for the effects of climate change and verify that the project will maintain its effectiveness over the long term, we allow the risk of flooding to increase over time. Over our 50-year time horizon, we double the risk of 100- and 500-year flood events to account for the effects of sea level rise on coastal flooding. Based on the economic analysis, the project is highly cost beneficial over its 50-year timeframe. This analysis demonstrates that climate change adaptation investments can be cost beneficial even though they mitigate the impacts of low-probability, high-consequence events.

An empirical investigation of the impact of global energy transition on Nigerian oil and gas exports

18 months embargo on the thesis and check appendix for copy right materials

Credit spreads and monetary policy in a small open economy: an analysis of the colombian economy

This paper estimates Bejarano and Charry (2014)’s small open economy with financial frictions model for the Colombian economy using Bayesian estimation techniques. Additionally, I compute the welfare gains of implementing an optimal response to credit spreads into an augmented Taylor rule. The main result is that a reaction to credit spreads does not imply significant welfare gains unless the economic disturbances increases its volatility, like the disruption implied by a financial crisis. Otherwise its impact over the macroeconomic variables is null.

Energy consumption and energy efficiency in olive oil mills: case studies in Portugal and Spain in the frame of TESLA project

TESLA project (Transfering Energy Save Laid on Agroindustry) financed by the European Commission, had the main goals of evaluating the energy consumption and to identify the best available practices to improve energy efficiency in key agro-food sectors, such as the olive oil mills. A general analysis of energy consumptions allowed identifying the partition between electrical and thermal energy (approximately 50%) and the production processes responsible for the higher energy consumptions, as being the in the mill and paste preparation and the phases separation. Some measures for reducing energy waste and for improving energy efficiency were identified and the impact was evaluated by using the TESLA tool developed by Circe and available at the TESLA website.

Occurrence of plastic debris in the stomach of the invasive crab Eriocheir sinensis

The Chinese mitten crab is known as a pest causing damage to fishing gears and fish. On the other hand, this highly invasive species is considered a delicacy by Asian migrants and therefore commercially fished and sold in many countries. The ingestion of plastic by the Chinese mitten crab Eriocheir sinensis from the Baltic coastal waters (Poland) and the Tagus Estuary (Portugal) was studied based on stomach content analysis. As many as 13% of the 302 analysed males and females (38.07–89.07 mm carapace width) from both regions, contained microplastic in the form of strands and balls. Most of them were transparent. Ingested plastic particles were identified as fragments of fishing gears. Contamination with plastic may have a negative impact on this species as well as on higher trophic levels feeding on crabs.

Do Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Consumption Exhibit Long Memory? A Fractional Integration Analysis

In this article we use an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average approach to measure the degree of fractional integration of aggregate world CO2 emissions and its five components – coal, oil, gas, cement, and gas flaring. We find that all variables are stationary and mean reverting, but exhibit long-term memory. Our results suggest that both coal and oil combustion emissions have the weakest degree of long-range dependence, while emissions from gas and gas flaring have the strongest. With evidence of long memory, we conclude that transitory policy shocks are likely to have long-lasting effects, but not permanent effects. Accordingly, permanent effects on CO2 emissions require a more permanent policy stance. In this context, if one were to rely only on testing for stationarity and non-stationarity, one would likely conclude in favour of non-stationarity, and therefore that even transitory policy shocks