The estimation of tuberculosis transmission parameters using ABC and MCMC methods

The aim of this work is to apply approximate Bayesian computation in combination with Marcov chain Monte Carlo methods in order to estimate the parameters of tuberculosis transmission. The methods are applied to San Francisco data and the results are compared with the outcomes of previous works. Moreover, a methodological idea with the aim to reduce computational time is also described. Despite the fact that this approach is proved to work in an appropriate way, further analysis is needed to understand and test its behaviour in different cases. Some related suggestions to its further enhancement are described in the corresponding chapter.

Determination of macromolecular exchange and PO2 in the microcirculation: a simple system for in vivo fluorescence and phosphorescence videomicroscopy

We have developed a system with two epi-illumination sources, a DC-regulated lamp for transillumination and mechanical switches for rapid shift of illumination and detection of defined areas (250-750 µm²) by fluorescence and phosphorescence videomicroscopy. The system permits investigation of standard microvascular parameters, vascular permeability as well as intra- and extravascular PO2 by phosphorescence quenching of Pd-meso-tetra (4-carboxyphenyl) porphine (PORPH). A Pechan prism was used to position a defined region over the photomultiplier and TV camera. In order to validate the system for in vivo use, in vitro tests were performed with probes at concentrations that can be found in microvascular studies. Extensive in vitro evaluations were performed by filling glass capillaries with solutions of various concentrations of FITC-dextran (diluted in blood and in saline) mixed with different amounts of PORPH. Fluorescence intensity and phosphorescence decay were determined for each mixture. FITC-dextran solutions without PORPH and PORPH solutions without FITC-dextran were used as references. Phosphorescence decay curves were relatively unaffected by the presence of FITC-dextran at all concentrations tested (0.1 µg/ml to 5 mg/ml). Likewise, fluorescence determinations were performed in the presence of PORPH (0.05 to 0.5 mg/ml). The system was successfully used to study macromolecular extravasation and PO2 in the rat mesentery circulation under controlled conditions and during ischemia-reperfusion.

alpha-Smooth muscle actin and proliferating cell nuclear antigen expression in focal segmental glomerulosclerosis: functional and structural parameters of renal disease progression

The aim of the present study was to investigate the expression of alpha-smooth muscle actin (alpha-SM-actin) and proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA) in renal cortex from patients with focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) and their correlations with parameters of renal disease progression. We analyzed renal biopsies from 41 patients with idiopathic FSGS and from 14 control individuals. The alpha-SM-actin immunoreaction was evaluated using a score that reflected the changes in the extent and intensity of staining in the glomerular or cortical area. The PCNA reaction was quantified by counting the labeled cells of the glomeruli or renal cortex. The results, reported as median ± percentile (25th; 75th), showed that the alpha-SM-actin scores in the glomeruli and tubulointerstitium from the renal cortex were 2.0 (2.0; 4.0) and 3.0 (3.0; 4.0), respectively, in patients with FSGS, and 0.5 (0.0; 1.0) and 0.0 (0.0; 0.5) in the controls. The number of PCNA-positive cells per glomerulus and graded field of tubulointerstitium from the renal cortex was 0.2 (0.0; 0.4) and 1.1 (0.3; 2.2), respectively, for patients with FSGS, and 0.0 (0.0; 0.5) and 0.0 (0.0; 0.0) for controls. The present data showed an increase of alpha-SM-actin and PCNA expression in glomeruli and renal cortex from FSGS patients. The extent of immunoreaction for alpha-SM-actin in the tubulointerstitial area was correlated with the intensity of proteinuria. However, there was no correlation between the kidney expression of these proteins and the reciprocal of plasma creatinine level or renal fibrosis. These findings suggest that the immunohistochemical alterations may be reversible.

The selective and non-selective cyclooxygenase inhibitors valdecoxib and piroxicam induce the same postoperative analgesia and control of trismus and swelling after lower third molar removal

We compared the clinical efficacy of orally administered valdecoxib and piroxicam for the prevention of pain, trismus and swelling after removal of horizontally and totally intrabony impacted lower third molars. Twenty-five patients were scheduled to undergo removal of symmetrically positioned lower third molars in two separate appointments. Valdecoxib (40 mg) or piroxicam (20 mg) was administered in a double-blind, randomized and crossed manner for 4 days after the surgical procedures. Objective and subjective parameters were recorded for comparison of postoperative courses. Both agents were effective for postoperative pain relief (N = 19). There was a similar mouth opening at suture removal compared with the preoperative values (86.14 ± 4.36 and 93.12 ± 3.70% of the initial measure for valdecoxib and piroxicam, respectively; ANOVA). There was no significant difference regarding the total amount of rescue medication taken by the patients treated with valdecoxib or piroxicam (173.08 ± 91.21 and 461.54 ± 199.85 mg, respectively; Wilcoxon test). There were no significant differences concerning the swelling observed on the second postoperative day compared to baseline measures (6.15 ± 1.84 and 8.46 ± 2.04 mm for valdecoxib and piroxicam, respectively; ANOVA) or on the seventh postoperative day (1.69 ± 1.61 and 2.23 ± 2.09 mm for valdecoxib and piroxicam, respectively; ANOVA). The cyclooxygenase-2 selective inhibitor valdecoxib is as effective as the non-selective cyclooxygenase inhibitor piroxicam for pain, trismus and swelling control after removal of horizontally and totally intrabony impacted lower third molars.

Brain tissue segmentation using q-entropy in multiple sclerosis magnetic resonance images

The loss of brain volume has been used as a marker of tissue destruction and can be used as an index of the progression of neurodegenerative diseases, such as multiple sclerosis. In the present study, we tested a new method for tissue segmentation based on pixel intensity threshold using generalized Tsallis entropy to determine a statistical segmentation parameter for each single class of brain tissue. We compared the performance of this method using a range of different q parameters and found a different optimal q parameter for white matter, gray matter, and cerebrospinal fluid. Our results support the conclusion that the differences in structural correlations and scale invariant similarities present in each tissue class can be accessed by generalized Tsallis entropy, obtaining the intensity limits for these tissue class separations. In order to test this method, we used it for analysis of brain magnetic resonance images of 43 patients and 10 healthy controls matched for gender and age. The values found for the entropic q index were 0.2 for cerebrospinal fluid, 0.1 for white matter and 1.5 for gray matter. With this algorithm, we could detect an annual loss of 0.98% for the patients, in agreement with literature data. Thus, we can conclude that the entropy of Tsallis adds advantages to the process of automatic target segmentation of tissue classes, which had not been demonstrated previously.

Reproducibility of heart rate variability parameters measured in healthy subjects at rest and after a postural change maneuver

Heart rate variability (HRV) provides important information about cardiac autonomic modulation. Since it is a noninvasive and inexpensive method, HRV has been used to evaluate several parameters of cardiovascular health. However, the internal reproducibility of this method has been challenged in some studies. Our aim was to determine the intra-individual reproducibility of HRV parameters in short-term recordings obtained in supine and orthostatic positions. Electrocardiographic (ECG) recordings were obtained from 30 healthy subjects (20-49 years, 14 men) using a digital apparatus (sampling ratio = 250 Hz). ECG was recorded for 10 min in the supine position and for 10 min in the orthostatic position. The procedure was repeated 2-3 h later. Time and frequency domain analyses were performed. Frequency domain included low (LF, 0.04-0.15 Hz) and high frequency (HF, 0.15-0.4 Hz) bands. Power spectral analysis was performed by the autoregressive method and model order was set at 16. Intra-subject agreement was assessed by linear regression analysis, test of difference in variances and limits of agreement. Most HRV measures (pNN50, RMSSD, LF, HF, and LF/HF ratio) were reproducible independent of body position. Better correlation indexes (r > 0.6) were obtained in the orthostatic position. Bland-Altman plots revealed that most values were inside the agreement limits, indicating concordance between measures. Only SDNN and NNv in the supine position were not reproducible. Our results showed reproducibility of HRV parameters when recorded in the same individual with a short time between two exams. The increased sympathetic activity occurring in the orthostatic position probably facilitates reproducibility of the HRV indexes.

Plasma concentrations and placental immunostaining of interleukin-10 and tumornecrosis factor-α as predictors of alterations in the embryo-fetal organism and the placental development of diabetic rats

Interleukin-10 (IL-10) appears to be the key cytokine for the maintenance of pregnancy and inhibits the secretion of inflammatory cytokines such as tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α). However, there are no studies evaluating the profile of these cytokines in diabetic rat models. Thus, our aim was to analyze IL-10 and TNF-α immunostaining in placental tissue and their respective concentrations in maternal plasma during pregnancy in diabetic rats in order to determine whether these cytokines can be used as predictors of alterations in the embryo-fetal organism and in placental development. These parameters were evaluated in non-diabetic (control; N = 15) and Wistar rats with streptozotocin (STZ)-induced diabetes (N = 15). At term, the dams (100 days of life) were killed under anesthesia and plasma and placental samples were collected for IL-10 and TNF-α determinations by ELISA and immunohistochemistry, respectively. The reproductive performance was analyzed. Plasma IL-10 concentrations were reduced in STZ rats compared to controls (7.6 ± 4.5 vs 20.9 ± 8.1 pg/mL). The placental scores of immunostaining intensity did not differ between groups (P > 0.05). Prevalence analysis showed that the IL-10 expression followed TNF-α expression, showing a balance between them. STZ rats also presented impaired reproductive performance and reduced plasma IL-10 levels related to damage during early embryonic development. However, the increased placental IL-10 as a compensatory mechanism for the deficit of maternal regulation permitted embryo development. Therefore, the data suggest that IL-10 can be used as a predictor of changes in the embryo-fetal organism and in placental development in pregnant diabetic rats.

Effects of Fin Parameters on Gas-Side Heat Transfer Performance of H-Type Finned Tube Bundle in a Waste Heat Recovery Boiler

Alfa Laval Aalborg Oy designs and manufactures waste heat recovery systems utilizing extended surfaces. The waste heat recovery boiler considered in this thesis is a water-tube boiler where exhaust gas is used as the convective heat transfer medium and water or steam flowing inside the tubes is subject to cross-flow. This thesis aims to contribute to the design of waste heat recovery boiler unit by developing a numerical model of the H-type finned tube bundle currently used by Alfa Laval Aalborg Oy to evaluate the gas-side heat transfer performance. The main objective is to identify weaknesses and potential areas of development in the current H-type finned tube design. In addition, numerical simulations for a total of 15 cases with varying geometric parameters are conducted to investigate the heat transfer and pressure drop performance dependent on H-type fin geometry. The investigated geometric parameters include fin width and height, fin spacing, and fin thickness. Comparison between single and double tube type configuration is also conducted. Based on the simulation results, the local heat transfer and flow behaviour of the H-type finned tube is presented including boundary layer development between the fins, the formation of recirculation zone behind the tubes, and the local variations of flow velocity and temperature within the tube bundle and on the fin surface. Moreover, an evaluation of the effects of various fin parameters on heat transfer and pressure drop performance of H-type finned tube bundle has been provided. It was concluded that from the studied parameters fin spacing and fin width had the most significant effect on tube bundle performance and the effect of fin thickness was the least important. Furthermore, the results suggested that the heat transfer performance would increase due to enhanced turbulence if the current double tube configuration is replaced with single tube configuration, but further investigation and experimental measurements are required in order to validate the results.

Determination of thermobacteriological parameters and size of Bacillus stearothermophilus ATCC 7953 spores

In order to determine thermobacteriological parameters for B. stearothermophilus spores, they were diluted in a saline solution medium and in ground corn-soybean mix, distributed in TDT tube, and submitted to heat for a specific period of time. The D value (time to reduce 1 log cycle of microbial count under a certain temperature) and z value (variation of temperature to cause 10-fold change in D value) were estimated. To estimate their dimensions, the spores were visualized by using a scanning electron microscope. D121.1 ºC and z values for these spores, as determined in the saline solution, were 8.8 minutes and 12.8 ºC, respectively. D121,1 ºC and z values determined in the corn-soy mix were 14.2 minutes and 23.7 ºC, respectively. The micrographs indicated that the spores have homogeneous shape and size, with length and diameter of 2 and 1 µm, respectively. These results confirm that the spore is highly thermal-resistant, and it is a good biological indicator to evaluate the extrusion process as a feed sterilizer.

Use of colour parameters for roasted coffee assessment

Fast and non-destructive indicators were evaluated as tools to measure the technological quality of Arabica and Robusta coffee. Accordingly, considering the roasting intensity in highly valuable commercial samples, volume, mass, apparent density, moisture, total ash, ash insoluble in hydrochloric acid, and ether extract were characterized. The chromatic parameters L*, C*, Hº were measured using illuminants D65 and C. It was found that in roasted coffee beans, the parameters L*, C*, Hº, and coordinate b* had an antagonist interaction due to an increase in the roasting intensity, whereas after milling, only L* and Hº decreased progressively. Considering that the parameters L* and Hº followed similar patterns using both illuminants, D65 and C, it can be concluded that they are appropriate to evaluate coffee colour changes during roasting, enabling a relationship with coffee quality.

Physicochemical and microbiological parameters of dried salted pork meat with different sodium chloride levels

The objective of this study was to evaluate the physicochemical and microbiological parameters of pork meat submitted to dry salting. Sodium chloride (NaCl) was added at levels of 0%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5% or 10% by the meat weight. Dry salting technique was used, which consists of rubbing the sodium chloride manually, followed by a rest period. The data were submitted to analysis of variance using a completely randomized experimental design. The means were compared by Duncan test at 5%. The salting process reduced (P < 0.05) humidity and water activity, and it increased (P < 0.05) ash, chloride, palmitic acid, and water holding capacity levels compared to those of the control. Luminosity (L*) was lower (P < 0.05) in the control, and a* color was more intense in samples with 2.5% NaCl. Cooking loss was lower (P < 0.05) in the samples salted with 5% and 10% NaCl, and similarity was observed between the levels 0 and 7.5% salt. The treatments with levels 0% and 2.5% NaCl had higher mesophilic counts. The other microbiological parameters were within limits established by law. Therefore, salting with 5% NaCl can be used in pork meat in order to maintain the physicochemical and microbiological characteristics of the final product.

Effect of high and low molecular weight glutenin subunits, and subunits of gliadin on physicochemical parameters of different wheat genotypes

Identification of functional properties of wheat flour by specific tests allows genotypes with appropriate characteristics to be selected for specific industrial uses. The objective of wheat breeding programs is to improve the quality of germplasm bank in order to be able to develop wheat with suitable gluten strength and extensibility for bread making. The aim of this study was to evaluate 16 wheat genotypes by correlating both glutenin subunits of high and low molecular weight and gliadin subunits with the physicochemical characteristics of the grain. Protein content, sedimentation volume, sedimentation index, and falling number values were analyzed after the grains were milled. Hectoliter weight and mass of 1000 seeds were also determined. The glutenin and gliadin subunits were separated using polyacrylamide gel in the presence of sodium dodecyl sulfate. The data were evaluated using variance analysis, Pearson's correlation, principal component analysis, and cluster analysis. The IPR 85, IPR Catuara TM, T 091015, and T 091069 genotypes stood out from the others, which indicate their possibly superior grain quality with higher sedimentation volume, higher sedimentation index, and higher mass of 1000 seeds; these genotypes possessed the subunits 1 (Glu-A1), 5 + 10 (Glu-D1), c (Glu-A3), and b (Glu-B3), with exception of T 091069 genotype that possessed the g allele instead of b in the Glu-B3.

Narratives of emergence: rising powers and the end of the Third World?

This article examines recent arguments from development economists, from historians and from international relations specialists that do challenge the continued relevance of the idea of the Third World. It then examines five reasons why these arguments are wrong. We can indeed understand much about emerging powers in terms of how they are seeking to navigate and best position themselves within an existing state-centric, liberal and capitalist order whilst accepting many of the underlying assumptions and values of that order. But the nature of that navigation has been shaped by their historical trajectory and by the developmental, societal and geopolitical context of their emergence.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

The shifting terrain of feminist theory and activism : university-based women's centres and third wave feminism

This thesis, based on the results of an organizational ethnography of a university-based feminist organization in Southern Ontario (the Centre), traces how third wave feminism is being constituted in the goals, initiatives, mandate, organizational structure, and overall culture of university-based feminist organizations. I argue that, from its inception, the meanings and goals of the Centre have been contested through internal critique, reflection, and discussion inspired by significant shifts in feminist theory that challenge the fundamental principles of second wave feminism. I identify a major shift in the development and direction of the Centre that occurs in two distinct phases. The first phase of the shift occurs with the emergence of an antioppression framework, which broadens the Centre's mandate beyond gender and sexism to consider multiple axes of identity and oppression that affect women's lives. The second phase of this shift is characterized by a focus on (trans) inclusion and accessibility and has involved changing the Centre's name so that it is no longer identified as a women's centre in order to reflect more accurately its focus on mUltiple axes of identity and oppression. Along with identifying two phases of a major shift in the direction of the Centre, I trace two discourses about its development. The dominant discourse of the Centre's development is one of progress and evolution. The dominant discourse characterizes the Centre as a dynamic feminist organization that consistently strives to be more inclusive and diverse. The reverse discourse undermines the dominant discourse by emphasizing that, despite the Centre's official attempts to be inclusive and to build diversity, little has actually changed, leaving women of colour marginalized in the Centre's dominant culture of whiteness. This research reveals that, while many of their strategies have unintended (negative) consequences, members of the Centre are working to build an inclusive politics of resistance that avoids the mistakes of earlier feminist movements and organizations. These members, along with other activists, actively constitute third wave feminism in a process that is challenging, contradictory, and often painful. A critical analysis of this process and the strategies it involves provides an opportunity for activists to reflect on their experiences and develop new strategies in an effort to further struggles for social justice and equity.