The role of evacuation modelling in the development of safer air travel

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in post mortuuum accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and costs involved in performing large-scale evacuation experiments for the next generation 'Ultra High Capacity Aircraft' (UHCA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. In this paper the capabilities and limitation of the air-EXODUS evacuation model are described. Its successful application to the prediction of a recent certificaiton trial, prior to the actual trial taking place, is described. Also described is a newly defined parameter known as OPS which can be used as a measure of evacuation trial optimality. Finally, the data requirements of aircraft evacuation models is discussed along with several projects currently underway at the University of Greenwich designed to obtain this data. Included in this discussion is a description of the AASK - Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge - data base which contains detailed information from aircraft accident survivors.

The Shared Memory Parallelisation of an Ocean Modelling Code using an Interactive Parallelisation Toolkit

This paper briefly describes an interactive parallelisation toolkit that can be used to generate parallel code suitable for either a distributed memory system (using message passing) or a shared memory system (using OpenMP). This study focuses on how the toolkit is used to parallelise a complex heterogeneous ocean modelling code within a few hours for use on a shared memory parallel system. The generated parallel code is essentially the serial code with OpenMP directives added to express the parallelism. The results show that substantial gains in performance can be achieved over the single thread version with very little effort.

Using an interactive parallelisation toolkit to parallelise an ocean modelling code

This paper describes an interactive parallelisation toolkit that can be used to generate parallel code suitable for either a distributed memory system (using message passing) or a shared memory system (using OpenMP). This study focuses on how the toolkit is used to parallelise a complex heterogeneous ocean modelling code within a few hours for use on a shared memory parallel system. The generated parallel code is essentially the serial code with OpenMP directives added to express the parallelism. The results show that substantial gains in performance can be achieved over the single thread version with very little effort.

The UK WTC 9/11 evacuation study: an overview of the methodologies employed and some analysis relating to fatigue, stair travel speeds and occupant response times

This paper briefly describes the methodologies employed in the collection and storage of first-hand accounts of evacuation experiences derived from face-to-face interviews with evacuees from the World Trade Center (WTC) Twin Towers complex on 11 September 2001 and the development of the High-rise Evacuation Evaluation Database (HEED). The main focus of the paper is to present an overview of preliminary analysis of data derived from the evacuation of the North Tower.

Guide to the coastal and surface zooplankton of the south-western Indian Ocean. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 15

A guide compiled as an aid to researchers in the identification of the coastal and shallow water, south-western Indian Ocean pelagic zooplankton, as much of the identification literature covering this area of amazing biodiversity is currently spread through the scientific literature and not accessible without extensive library resources. Most zooplankton groups, except fish larvae and eggs, have been covered, but some specialist groups have not yet been dealt with in great detail. However, a selection of representative members of most groups have been given, so that organisms can at least be assigned to perhaps a particular genus within the main group. The species list is based on zooplankton sampling carried out round the coastal areas of the islands of Mahé and Aldabra (Seychelles), Rodrigues (Mauritius), Madagascar and from a sampling transect between Seychelles and Rodrigues. The guide therefore includes a high proportion of the island-coastal and surface water zooplankton of the whole Indian Ocean. The location where a particular species has been sampled has been noted and some species that have not been sampled, but are known to occur in the region, have been included. Comprehensive taxonomic information has not been presented, but sufficient information should be given to identify each species. Keys have not yet been included for genera, as further species will be added. A bibliography of relevant plankton references has also been included.

Epipelagic mesozooplankton distribution and abundance over the Mascarene Plateau and Basin, south-western Indian Ocean

The crescent shaped Mascarene Plateau (southwestern Indian Ocean), some 2200 km in length, forms a partial barrier to the (predominantly westward) flow of the South Equatorial Current. Shallow areas of the Mascarene Plateau effectively form a large shelf sea without an associated coastline. Zooplankton sampling transects were made across the plateau and also the basin to the west, to investigate the role the partial interruption of flow has on zooplankton biomass and community structure over the region. Biomass data from Optical Plankton Counter (OPC) analysis, and variability in community structure from taxonomic analysis, appear to indicate that the obstruction by the plateau causes upwelling, nutrient enrichment and enhanced chlorophyll and secondary production levels downstream. The Mascarene Basin is clearly distinguishable from the ridge itself, and from the waters to the south and north, both in terms of size-distributed zooplankton biomass and community structure. Satellite remote sensing data, particularly remotely-sensed ocean colour imagery and the sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), indicate support for this hypothesis. A correlation was found between OPC biovolume and SSHA and sea surface temperature (SST), which may indicate the physical processes driving mesozooplankton variability in this area. Biomass values away from the influence of the ridge averaged 24 mg m-3, but downstream if the ridge biomass averaged 263 mg m-3. Copepods comprised 60% of the mean total organisms. Calanoid copepods varied considerably between regions, being lowest away from the influence of the plateau, where higher numbers of the cyclopoid copepods Oithona spp., Corycaeus spp. and Oncaea spp., and the harpacticoid Microsetella spp. were found.

Ocean climate anomalies and the ecology of the North Sea

Long-term changes in the plankton of the North Sea are investigated using data from the continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey. During the last 4 decades, there appears to have been 2 large anomalous periods within the plankton data set, one that occurred in the late 1970s and the other in the late 1980s. These anomalous periods seem to be largely synchronous with unusual ocean climate conditions that have occurred episodically over a timescale of decades. The unusual ocean climate conditions prevailing at these 2 time periods appear to contain important hydrographical elements that involve oceanic incursions into the North Sea. This paper, using data from the CPR survey and providing evidence from other studies, focuses on the relationship between the long-term changes in the biology of the North Sea and these 2 exceptional hydro-climatic events. Here, we suggest that while atmospheric variability and associated changes in regional temperatures have a dominant effect on the marine environment, oceanic influences on the ecology of a semi-closed environment such as the North Sea may have been underestimated in the past.

Seasonal movements and behaviour of basking sharks from archival tagging: No evidence of winter hibernation

Habitat selection processes in highly migratory animals such as sharks and whales are important to understand because they influence patterns of distribution, availability and therefore catch rates. However, spatial strategies remain poorly understood over seasonal scales in most species, including, most notably, the plankton-feeding basking shark Cetorhinus maximus. It was proposed nearly 50 yr ago that this globally distributed species migrates from coastal summer-feeding areas of the northeast Atlantic to hibernate during winter in deep water on the bottom of continental-shelf slopes. This view has perpetuated in the literature even though the 'hibernation theory' has not been tested directly. We have now tracked basking sharks for the first time over seasonal scales (1.7 to 6.5 mo) using 'pop-up' satellite archival transmitters. We show that they do not hibernate during winter but instead undertake extensive horizontal (up to 3400 km) and vertical (> 750 m depth) movements to utilise productive continental-shelf and shelf-edge habitats during summer, autumn and winter. They travel long distances (390 to 460 km) to locate temporally discrete productivity 'hotspots' at shelf-break fronts, but at no time were prolonged movements into open-ocean regions away from shelf waters observed. Basking sharks have a very broad vertical diving range and can dive beyond the known range of planktivorous whales. Our study suggests this species can exploit shelf and slope-associated zooplankton communities in mesopelagic (200 to 1000 m) as well as epipelagic habitat (0 to 200 m).

Differential contribution of diatoms and dinoflagellates to phytoplankton biomass in the NE Atlantic Ocean and the North Sea

Sampling by the continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey over the North Atlantic Ocean and the North Sea has enabled long-term studies of phytoplankton biomass. Analysis of an index of phytoplankton biomass, the phytoplankton colour index (PCI), has previously shown an increase in phytoplankton biomass in the NE Atlantic. In the current study, further investigations were conducted to determine the contribution of diatom and dinoflagellate cell counts to the PCI, their fluctuations over the last 45 yr and their geographical variations in the eastern North Atlantic and the North Sea. An increased contribution of dinoflagellates to the PCI was revealed over the south NE Atlantic and the northern North Sea. In contrast, the contribution of diatoms decreased in the north NE Atlantic and the northern North Sea. No discernible trends were found in the other regions of the North Sea. The relative contributions of diatoms and dinoflagellates to the PCI led to the identification of 3 geographically distinct dynamic regimes in the diatom/dinoflagellate dynamics in the NE Atlantic and the North Sea. Finally, it is stressed that the discrepancy observed in the patterns of PCI and diatom and dinoflagellate cell counts suggests that changes in PCI do not reflect changes in the community structure and that the exclusive use of PCI is not adequate to investigate the long-term trends in the trophic link between phytoplankton and herbivorous zooplankton.

History of the Continuous Plankton Recorder Database. Proceedings of 'The Colour of Ocean Data' Symposium, Brussels, 25-27 November 2002.

The Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey has operated in the North Atlantic and North Sea since 1931, providing a unitque multi-decadal dataset of plankton abundance. Over the period since 1931 technology has advanced and the system for storing the CPR data has developed considerably. From 1969 an electronic database was developed to store the results of CPR analysis. Since that time the CPR database has undergone a number of changes due to performance related factors such as processor speed and disk capacity as well as economic factors such as the cost of software. These issues have been overcome and the system for storing and retrieving the data has become more user friendly at every development stage.

North Atlantic and North Sea climate change: curl up, shut down, NAO and ocean colour

The strength of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) (based on sea-surface elevation sloped derived from altimeter data) is correlated with westerly winds (based on North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] Index data over a nine year period [1992-2002] with 108 monthly values). The data time window includes the major change in climate forcing over the last 100 years (1995 to 1996). It is shown that the NAO Index can be used for early earning of system failure for the NAC. The correlation response or early warning time scale for western Europe and south England is six months. The decay scale for the NAC and Subtropical Gyre circulation is estimated as three years. Longer period altimeter elevation/circulation changes are discussed. The sea-surface temperature (SST) response of the North Sea to negative and positive NAO conditions is examined. The overall temperature response for the central North Sea to NAO index forcing, reflecting wind induced inflow, shelf circulation and local climate forcing, is similar to 5 months. In years with strong North Atlantic winter wind induced inflow, under marked NAO positive conditions, mean temperatures ( similar to 10.5 degree C) are about 1 degree C warmer than under negative conditions. In 1996 under extreme negative winter NAO conditions, the North Sea circulation stopped, conditions near the Dogger Bank became more continentally influenced and the winter (March) temperature fell to 3.1 degree C whereas in 1995 under NAO positive winter conditions the minimum temperature was 6.4 degree C (February). Seasonal advance of North Atlantic and North Sea temperature is derived in relation to temperature change. Temperature change and monthly NAO Index are discussed with respect to phytoplankton blooms, chlorophyll-a measurements, ocean colour data and the anomalous north-eastern Atlantic 2002 spring/summer bloom SeaWiFS chlorophyll concentrations.