The Brazilian Experience With the Use of the Shield Wire Line Technology (SWL) for Energy Distribution

This paper presents an analysis of the impact of the lightning overvoltages on the operational performance of the energized shield wire line technology (SWL) implemented in two locations of the State of Rondonia, Brazil. The analysis covers the periods of 1996 to 2000 (SWL Jaru) and 1997 to 2002 (SWL Itapua do Oeste), and shows that lightning is responsible for most of the system outages. The paper describes the satisfactory results achieved with the system, showing that the isolation and energization of the shield wires does not deteriorate the lightning performance of the 230 kV transmission lines. Comparisons between the performances of the SWL technology, conventional 34.5 kV lines, and thermal power plants in operation in the same region are also presented. The results demonstrate the technical and economical viability of the SWL technology and show that its application can lead to a postponement of investments.

Bulk neutrinos as an alternative cause of the gallium and reactor anti-neutrino anomalies

We consider an alternative explanation for the deficit of nu(e) in Ga solar neutrino calibration experiments and of the (nu) over bar (e) in short-baseline reactor experiments by a model where neutrinos can oscillate into sterile Kaluza-Klein modes that can propagate in compactified submicrometer flat extra dimensions. We have analyzed the results of the gallium radioactive source experiments and 19 reactor experiments with baseline shorter than 100 m, and showed that these data can be fit into this scenario. The values of the lightest neutrino mass and of the size of the largest extra dimension that are compatible with these experiments are mostly not excluded by other neutrino oscillation experiments.

An adaptive solar radiation numerical model

[EN]A numerical model for the evaluation of solar radiation in different locations is presented. The solar radiation model is implemented taking into account the terrain surface using two-dimensional adaptive meshes of triangles that are constructed using a refinement/derefinement procedure in accordance with the variations of terrain surface and albedo. The selected methodology defines the terrain characteristics with a minimum number of points so that the computational cost is reduced for a given accuracy. The model can be used in atmospheric sciences as well as in other fields such as electrical engineering, since it allows the user to find the optimal location for maximum power generation in photovoltaic or solar thermal power plants...

Advanced Waste-To-Energy Cycles

The increase in environmental and healthy concerns, combined with the possibility to exploit waste as a valuable energy resource, has led to explore alternative methods for waste final disposal. In this context, the energy conversion of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) in Waste-To-Energy (WTE) power plant is increasing throughout Europe, both in terms of plants number and capacity, furthered by legislative directives. Due to the heterogeneous nature of waste, some differences with respect to a conventional fossil fuel power plant have to be considered in the energy conversion process. In fact, as a consequence of the well-known corrosion problems, the thermodynamic efficiency of WTE power plants typically ranging in the interval 25% ÷ 30%. The new Waste Framework Directive 2008/98/EC promotes production of energy from waste introducing an energy efficiency criteria (the so-called “R1 formula”) to evaluate plant recovery status. The aim of the Directive is to drive WTE facilities to maximize energy recovery and utilization of waste heat, in order to substitute energy produced with conventional fossil fuels fired power plants. This calls for novel approaches and possibilities to maximize the conversion of MSW into energy. In particular, the idea of an integrated configuration made up of a WTE and a Gas Turbine (GT) originates, driven by the desire to eliminate or, at least, mitigate limitations affecting the WTE conversion process bounding the thermodynamic efficiency of the cycle. The aim of this Ph.D thesis is to investigate, from a thermodynamic point of view, the integrated WTE-GT system sharing the steam cycle, sharing the flue gas paths or combining both ways. The carried out analysis investigates and defines the logic governing plants match in terms of steam production and steam turbine power output as function of the thermal powers introduced.

Mitigazione sequestro e stoccaggio di diossido di carbonio

The main objective of my thesis was the technical-economic feasibility of a system of electricity generation integrated with CCS. The policy framework for development processing is part of the recent attention that at the political level has been directed towards the use of CCS technologies with the aim of addressing the problems of actual climate change. Several technological options have been proposed to stabilize and reduce the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) among which, the most promising for IPPC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)are the CCS technologies (Carbon Capture and Storage & Carbon Capture and Sequestration). The remedy proposed for large stationary CO2 sources as thermoelectric power plants is to separate the flue gas capturing CO2 and to store it into deep subsurface geological formations (more than 800 meters of depth). In order to support the identification of potential CO2 storage reservoirs in Italy and in Europe by Geo Capacity(an European database) new studies are developing. From the various literature data analyzed shows that most of the CO2 emitted from large stationary sources comes from the processes of electricity generation (78% of total emissions) and from (about 60%) those using coal especially. The CCS have the objective of return "to the sender" , the ground, the carbon in oxidized form (CO2) after it has been burned by man starting from its reduced form (CH4, oil and coal), then the carbon dioxide is not a "pollutant" if injected into the subsurface, CO2 is an acid reagent that interacts with the rock, with underground fluid and the characteristics of the host rock. The results showed that the CCS technology are very urgent, because unfortunately there are too many industrial sources of CO2 in assets (power plants, refineries, cement plants, steel mills) in the world who are carrying too quickly the CO2 atmospheric concentration levels to values that aren't acceptable for our dear planet.

Riconversione degli impianti saccariferi per la valorizzazione della filiera agro-energetica: analisi di impatto sul comprensorio agricolo

Il presente lavoro trae origine dagli obiettivi e dalle relative misure applicative della riforma dell’OCM zucchero del 2006 e nello specifico dal Piano nazionale per la razionalizzazione e riconversione della produzione bieticolo-saccarifera approvato dal MIPAF nel 2007. Lo studio riguarda la riconversione dello zuccherificio di Finale Emilia (MO), di appartenenza del Gruppo bieticolo-saccarifero Co.Pro.B, in un impianto di generazione di energia elettrica e termica che utilizza biomassa di origine agricola per la combustione diretta. L'alimentazione avviene principalmente dalla coltivazione dedicata del sorgo da fibra (Sorghum bicolor), integrata con risorse agro-forestali. Lo studio mostra la necessità di coltivazione di 4.400 ettari di sorgo da fibra con una produzione annua di circa 97.000 t di prodotto al 75% di sostanza secca necessari per l’alimentazione della centrale a biomassa. L’obiettivo é quello di valutare l’impatto della nuova coltura energetica sul comprensorio agricolo e sulla economia dell’impresa agricola. La metodologia adottata si basa sulla simulazione di modelli aziendali di programmazione lineare che prevedono l’inserimento del sorgo da fibra come coltura energetica nel piano ottimo delle aziende considerate. I modelli predisposti sono stati calibrati su aziende RICA al fine di riprodurre riparti medi reali su tre tipologie dimensionali rappresentative: azienda piccola entro i 20 ha, media da 20 a 50 ha e grande oltre i 50 ha. La superficie di entrata a livello aziendale, se rapportata alla rappresentatività delle aziende dell’area di studio, risulta insufficiente per soddisfare la richiesta di approvvigionamento dell’impianto a biomassa. Infatti con tale incremento la superficie di coltivazione nel comprensorio si attesta sui 2.500 ettari circa contro i 4.400 necessari alla centrale. Lo studio mostra pertanto che occorre un incentivo superiore, di circa 80-90 €/ha, per soddisfare la richiesta della superficie colturale a livello di territorio. A questi livelli, la disponibilità della coltura energetica sul comprensorio risulta circa 9.500 ettari.

Studio, simulazione e verifica sperimentale di tecniche di controllo per convertitori multilivello modulari

L’evoluzione dei componenti elettronici di potenza ed il conseguente sviluppo dei convertitori statici dell’energia elettrica hanno consentito di ottenere un’elevata efficienza energetica, sia nell’ambito degli azionamenti elettrici, sia nell’ambito della trasmissione e distribuzione dell’energia elettrica. L’efficienza energetica è una questione molto importante nell’attuale contesto storico, in quanto si sta facendo fronte ad una elevatissima richiesta di energia, sfruttando prevalentemente fonti di energia non rinnovabili. L’introduzione dei convertitori statici ha reso possibile un notevolissimo incremento dello sfruttamento delle fonti di energia rinnovabili: si pensi ad esempio agli inverter per impianti fotovoltaici o ai convertitori back to back per applicazioni eoliche. All’aumentare della potenza di un convertitore aumenta la sua tensione di esercizio: le limitazioni della tensione sopportabile dagli IGBT, che sono i componenti elettronici di potenza di più largo impiego nei convertitori statici, rendono necessarie modifiche strutturali per i convertitori nei casi in cui la tensione superi determinati valori. Tipicamente in media ed alta tensione si impiegano strutture multilivello. Esistono più tipi di configurazioni multilivello: nel presente lavoro è stato fatto un confronto tra le varie strutture esistenti e sono state valutate le possibilità offerte dall’architettura innovativa Modular Multilevel Converter, nota come MMC. Attualmente le strutture più diffuse sono la Diode Clamped e la Cascaded. La prima non è modulare, in quanto richiede un’apposita progettazione in relazione al numero di livelli di tensione. La seconda è modulare, ma richiede alimentazioni separate e indipendenti per ogni modulo. La struttura MMC è modulare e necessita di un’unica alimentazione per il bus DC, ma la presenza dei condensatori richiede particolare attenzione in fase di progettazione della tecnica di controllo, analogamente al caso del Diode Clamped. Un esempio di possibile utilizzo del convertitore MMC riguarda le trasmissioni HVDC, alle quali si sta dedicando un crescente interesse negli ultimi anni.

Development of a microgrid with renewable energy sources and electrochemical storage system integration

Beside the traditional paradigm of "centralized" power generation, a new concept of "distributed" generation is emerging, in which the same user becomes pro-sumer. During this transition, the Energy Storage Systems (ESS) can provide multiple services and features, which are necessary for a higher quality of the electrical system and for the optimization of non-programmable Renewable Energy Source (RES) power plants. A ESS prototype was designed, developed and integrated into a renewable energy production system in order to create a smart microgrid and consequently manage in an efficient and intelligent way the energy flow as a function of the power demand. The produced energy can be introduced into the grid, supplied to the load directly or stored in batteries. The microgrid is composed by a 7 kW wind turbine (WT) and a 17 kW photovoltaic (PV) plant are part of. The load is given by electrical utilities of a cheese factory. The ESS is composed by the following two subsystems, a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) and a Power Control System (PCS). With the aim of sizing the ESS, a Remote Grid Analyzer (RGA) was designed, realized and connected to the wind turbine, photovoltaic plant and the switchboard. Afterwards, different electrochemical storage technologies were studied, and taking into account the load requirements present in the cheese factory, the most suitable solution was identified in the high temperatures salt Na-NiCl2 battery technology. The data acquisition from all electrical utilities provided a detailed load analysis, indicating the optimal storage size equal to a 30 kW battery system. Moreover a container was designed and realized to locate the BESS and PCS, meeting all the requirements and safety conditions. Furthermore, a smart control system was implemented in order to handle the different applications of the ESS, such as peak shaving or load levelling.

Mikrobielle Prozesskontrolle in Biogasanlagen durch Monitoring der Kohlenstoff-Isotopenverhältnisse im Gasbereich

Der zunehmende Anteil von Strom aus erneuerbaren Energiequellen erfordert ein dynamisches Konzept, um Spitzenlastzeiten und Versorgungslücken aus der Wind- und Solarenergie ausgleichen zu können. Biogasanlagen können aufgrund ihrer hohen energetischen Verfügbarkeit und der Speicherbarkeit von Biogas eine flexible Energiebereitstellung ermöglichen und darüber hinaus über ein „Power-to-Gas“-Verfahren bei einem kurzzeitigen Überschuss von Strom eine Überlastung des Stromnetzes verhindern. Ein nachfrageorientierter Betrieb von Biogasanlagen stellt jedoch hohe Anforderungen an die Mikrobiologie im Reaktor, die sich an die häufig wechselnden Prozessbedingungen wie der Raumbelastung im Reaktor anpassen muss. Eine Überwachung des Fermentationsprozesses in Echtzeit ist daher unabdingbar, um Störungen in den mikrobiellen Gärungswegen frühzeitig erkennen und adäquat entgegenwirken zu können. rnBisherige mikrobielle Populationsanalysen beschränken sich auf aufwendige, molekularbiologische Untersuchungen des Gärsubstrates, deren Ergebnisse dem Betreiber daher nur zeitversetzt zur Verfügung stehen. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurde erstmalig ein Laser-Absorptionsspektrometer zur kontinuierlichen Messung der Kohlenstoff-Isotopenverhältnisse des Methans an einer Forschungsbiogasanlage erprobt. Dabei konnten, in Abhängigkeit der Raumbelastung und Prozessbedingungen variierende Isotopenverhältnisse gemessen werden. Anhand von Isolaten aus dem untersuchten Reaktor konnte zunächst gezeigt werden, dass für jeden Methanogenesepfad (hydrogeno-troph, aceto¬klastisch sowie methylotroph) eine charakteristische, natürliche Isotopensignatur im Biogas nachgewiesen werden kann, sodass eine Identifizierung der aktuell dominierenden methanogenen Reaktionen anhand der Isotopen-verhältnisse im Biogas möglich ist. rnDurch den Einsatz von 13C- und 2H-isotopen¬markierten Substraten in Rein- und Mischkulturen und Batchreaktoren, sowie HPLC- und GC-Unter¬suchungen der Stoffwechselprodukte konnten einige bislang unbekannte C-Flüsse in Bioreaktoren festgestellt werden, die sich wiederum auf die gemessenen Isotopenverhältnisse im Biogas auswirken können. So konnte die Entstehung von Methanol sowie dessen mikrobieller Abbauprodukte bis zur finalen CH4-Bildung anhand von fünf Isolaten erstmalig in einer landwirtschaftlichen Biogasanlage rekonstruiert und das Vorkommen methylotropher Methanogenesewege nachgewiesen werden. Mithilfe molekularbiologischer Methoden wurden darüber hinaus methanoxidierende Bakterien zahlreicher, unbekannter Arten im Reaktor detektiert, deren Vorkommen aufgrund des geringen O2-Gehaltes in Biogasanlagen bislang nicht erwartet wurde. rnDurch die Konstruktion eines synthetischen DNA-Stranges mit den Bindesequenzen für elf spezifische Primerpaare konnte eine neue Methode etabliert werden, anhand derer eine Vielzahl mikrobieller Zielorganismen durch die Verwendung eines einheitlichen Kopienstandards in einer real-time PCR quantifiziert werden können. Eine über 70 Tage durchgeführte, wöchentliche qPCR-Analyse von Fermenterproben zeigte, dass die Isotopenverhältnisse im Biogas signifikant von der Zusammensetzung der Reaktormikrobiota beeinflusst sind. Neben den aktuell dominierenden Methanogenesewegen war es auch möglich, einige bakterielle Reaktionen wie eine syntrophe Acetatoxidation, Acetogenese oder Sulfatreduktion anhand der δ13C (CH4)-Werte zu identifizieren, sodass das hohe Potential einer kontinuierlichen Isotopenmessung zur Prozessanalytik in Biogasanlagen aufgezeigt werden konnte.rn

Ten Years after the Chernobyl Accident: Long-Term Immunological Consequences; Prognosis of Autoimmune Disorders

The Chernobyl tragedy was the biggest accident since the beginning of the nuclear power industry. The aim of this study was to determine the role of immunological mechanisms in the development of autoimmune disorders (thyroiditis and cataract) and cancers among those workers who participated in clean-up operations in 1986. Blood samples from 165 clean-up workers aged 30-65 from Minsk and Kiev who underwent prophylactic medical examinations and from 80 healthy donors were investigated for the presence of autoimmune reactions and the appearance of onco-foetal antigens. The sera of clean-up workers were found to include the thyroid gland antigen, auto-antibodies to thyroid gland and eye antigens, and immune complexes which are normally absent or found in much lower quantities. The appearance of the clinically unmanifested thyroid gland antigen made it possible to generate a concept describing the mechanism for induction and long-term maintenance of auto-antibody production in an organism after irradiation. Lymphocytes from clean-up workers showed normally absent onco-foetal antigens (PSG and CEA). The data obtained indicate that clean-up workers represent a high risk group for autoimmune and cancer diseases. Immunological findings reveal the long-lasting effects of low doses of irradiation and may be used in prognosis and monitoring of human health.

Review of assessment, design, and mitigation of multiple hazards

Large parts of the world are subjected to one or more natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, tropical storms (hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons), costal inundation and flooding. Virtually the entire world is at risk of man-made hazards. In recent decades, rapid population growth and economic development in hazard-prone areas have greatly increased the potential of multiple hazards to cause damage and destruction of buildings, bridges, power plants, and other infrastructure; thus posing a grave danger to the community and disruption of economic and societal activities. Although an individual hazard is significant in many parts of the United States (U.S.), in certain areas more than one hazard may pose a threat to the constructed environment. In such areas, structural design and construction practices should address multiple hazards in an integrated manner to achieve structural performance that is consistent with owner expectations and general societal objectives. The growing interest and importance of multiple-hazard engineering has been recognized recently. This has spurred the evolution of multiple-hazard risk-assessment frameworks and development of design approaches which have paved way for future research towards sustainable construction of new and improved structures and retrofitting of the existing structures. This report provides a review of literature and the current state of practice for assessment, design and mitigation of the impact of multiple hazards on structural infrastructure. It also presents an overview of future research needs related to multiple-hazard performance of constructed facilities.

Will Whole-Tree Harvest of Jack Pine (Pinus banksiana) deplete soil nutrients in low-productivity sand soils?

In 2009 and 2010 a study was conducted on the Hiawatha National Forest (HNF) to determine if whole-tree harvest (WTH) of jack pine would deplete the soil nutrients in the very coarse-textured Rubicon soil. WTH is restricted on Rubicon sand in order to preserve the soil fertility, but the increasing construction of biomass-fueled power plants is expected to increase the demand for forest biomass. The specific objectives of this study were to estimate biomass and nutrient content of above- and below-ground tree components in mature jack pine (Pinus banksiana) stands growing on a coarse-textured, low-productivity soil, determine pools of total C and N and exchangeable soil cations in Rubicon sand, and to compare the possible impacts of conventional stem-only harvest (CH) and WTH on soil nutrient pools and the implications for productivity of subsequent rotations. Four even-aged jack pine stands on Rubicon soil were studied. Allometric equations were used to estimate above-ground biomass and nutrients, and soil samples from each stand were taken for physical and chemical analysis. Results indicate that WTH will result in cation deficits in all stands, with exceptionally large Ca deficits occurring in two stands. Where a deficit does not occur, the cation surplus is small and, chemical weathering and atmospheric deposition is not anticipated to replace the removed cations. CH will result in a surplus of cations, and will likely not result in productivity declines during the first rotation. However even under CH, the surplus is small, and chemical weathering and atmospheric deposition will not supply enough cations for the second rotation.

Development of an optimization model for biofuel facility size and location and a simulation model for design of a biofuel supply chain

To mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reduce U.S. dependence on imported oil, the United States (U.S.) is pursuing several options to create biofuels from renewable woody biomass (hereafter referred to as “biomass”). Because of the distributed nature of biomass feedstock, the cost and complexity of biomass recovery operations has significant challenges that hinder increased biomass utilization for energy production. To facilitate the exploration of a wide variety of conditions that promise profitable biomass utilization and tapping unused forest residues, it is proposed to develop biofuel supply chain models based on optimization and simulation approaches. The biofuel supply chain is structured around four components: biofuel facility locations and sizes, biomass harvesting/forwarding, transportation, and storage. A Geographic Information System (GIS) based approach is proposed as a first step for selecting potential facility locations for biofuel production from forest biomass based on a set of evaluation criteria, such as accessibility to biomass, railway/road transportation network, water body and workforce. The development of optimization and simulation models is also proposed. The results of the models will be used to determine (1) the number, location, and size of the biofuel facilities, and (2) the amounts of biomass to be transported between the harvesting areas and the biofuel facilities over a 20-year timeframe. The multi-criteria objective is to minimize the weighted sum of the delivered feedstock cost, energy consumption, and GHG emissions simultaneously. Finally, a series of sensitivity analyses will be conducted to identify the sensitivity of the decisions, such as the optimal site selected for the biofuel facility, to changes in influential parameters, such as biomass availability and transportation fuel price. Intellectual Merit The proposed research will facilitate the exploration of a wide variety of conditions that promise profitable biomass utilization in the renewable biofuel industry. The GIS-based facility location analysis considers a series of factors which have not been considered simultaneously in previous research. Location analysis is critical to the financial success of producing biofuel. The modeling of woody biomass supply chains using both optimization and simulation, combing with the GIS-based approach as a precursor, have not been done to date. The optimization and simulation models can help to ensure the economic and environmental viability and sustainability of the entire biofuel supply chain at both the strategic design level and the operational planning level. Broader Impacts The proposed models for biorefineries can be applied to other types of manufacturing or processing operations using biomass. This is because the biomass feedstock supply chain is similar, if not the same, for biorefineries, biomass fired or co-fired power plants, or torrefaction/pelletization operations. Additionally, the research results of this research will continue to be disseminated internationally through publications in journals, such as Biomass and Bioenergy, and Renewable Energy, and presentations at conferences, such as the 2011 Industrial Engineering Research Conference. For example, part of the research work related to biofuel facility identification has been published: Zhang, Johnson and Sutherland [2011] (see Appendix A). There will also be opportunities for the Michigan Tech campus community to learn about the research through the Sustainable Future Institute.

DEVELOPMENT OF AN OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR BIOFUEL FACILITY SIZE AND LOCATION AND A SIMULATION MODEL FOR DESIGN OF A BIOFUEL SUPPLY CHAIN

A range of societal issues have been caused by fossil fuel consumption in the transportation sector in the United States (U.S.), including health related air pollution, climate change, the dependence on imported oil, and other oil related national security concerns. Biofuels production from various lignocellulosic biomass types such as wood, forest residues, and agriculture residues have the potential to replace a substantial portion of the total fossil fuel consumption. This research focuses on locating biofuel facilities and designing the biofuel supply chain to minimize the overall cost. For this purpose an integrated methodology was proposed by combining the GIS technology with simulation and optimization modeling methods. The GIS based methodology was used as a precursor for selecting biofuel facility locations by employing a series of decision factors. The resulted candidate sites for biofuel production served as inputs for simulation and optimization modeling. As a precursor to simulation or optimization modeling, the GIS-based methodology was used to preselect potential biofuel facility locations for biofuel production from forest biomass. Candidate locations were selected based on a set of evaluation criteria, including: county boundaries, a railroad transportation network, a state/federal road transportation network, water body (rivers, lakes, etc.) dispersion, city and village dispersion, a population census, biomass production, and no co-location with co-fired power plants. The simulation and optimization models were built around key supply activities including biomass harvesting/forwarding, transportation and storage. The built onsite storage served for spring breakup period where road restrictions were in place and truck transportation on certain roads was limited. Both models were evaluated using multiple performance indicators, including cost (consisting of the delivered feedstock cost, and inventory holding cost), energy consumption, and GHG emissions. The impact of energy consumption and GHG emissions were expressed in monetary terms to keep consistent with cost. Compared with the optimization model, the simulation model represents a more dynamic look at a 20-year operation by considering the impacts associated with building inventory at the biorefinery to address the limited availability of biomass feedstock during the spring breakup period. The number of trucks required per day was estimated and the inventory level all year around was tracked. Through the exchange of information across different procedures (harvesting, transportation, and biomass feedstock processing procedures), a smooth flow of biomass from harvesting areas to a biofuel facility was implemented. The optimization model was developed to address issues related to locating multiple biofuel facilities simultaneously. The size of the potential biofuel facility is set up with an upper bound of 50 MGY and a lower bound of 30 MGY. The optimization model is a static, Mathematical Programming Language (MPL)-based application which allows for sensitivity analysis by changing inputs to evaluate different scenarios. It was found that annual biofuel demand and biomass availability impacts the optimal results of biofuel facility locations and sizes.

CAN CHINA USE ALTERNATIVE ENERGIES INSTEAD OF COAL TO PROVIDE MORE ELECTRICITY BY 2030?

Following the rapid growth of China's economy, energy consumption, especially electricity consumption of China, has made a huge increase in the past 30 years. Since China has been using coal as the major energy source to produce electricity during these years, environmental problems have become more and more serious. The research question for this paper is: "Can China use alternative energies instead of coal to produce more electricity in 2030?" Hydro power, nuclear power, natural gas, wind power and solar power are considered as the possible and most popular alternative energies for the current situation of China. To answer the research question above, there are two things to know: How much is the total electricity consumption in China by 2030? And how much electricity can the alternative energies provide in China by 2030? For a more reliable forecast, an econometric model using the Ordinary Least Squares Method is established on this paper to predict the total electricity consumption by 2030. The predicted electricity coming from alternative energy sources by 2030 in China can be calculated from the existing literature. The research results of this paper are analyzed under a reference scenario and a max tech scenario. In the reference scenario, the combination of the alternative energies can provide 47.71% of the total electricity consumption by 2030. In the max tech scenario, it provides 57.96% of the total electricity consumption by 2030. These results are important not only because they indicate the government's long term goal is reachable, but also implies that the natural environment of China could have an inspiring future.